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Ukraine Invasion: Part 58

1000 replies

MagicFox · 10/08/2025 12:16

We’re all still here for Thread 58. Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

OP posts:
Thread gallery
360
DuncinToffee · 28/09/2025 11:09

The Moldovan elections have started.

At stake - the country’s continued movement towards the EU or a new foothold for Putin.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/09/2025 11:11

Fingers and toes crossed.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/09/2025 11:12

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

In Estonia, trains carrying heavy military equipment were spotted — including US Abrams tanks.
The column was seen about 100 km from the Russian border.

Russia unleashed one of its biggest air assaults on Kyiv early Sunday (www.kyivpost.com/post/61007) — waves of drones, cruise missiles, Kalibrs, and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles.
Civilians have been killed.

Rescue operations are underway across Ukrainian cities after one of Russia’s most massive missile and drone assaults. (www.kyivpost.com/post/61007) The final death toll remains unknown.
Kyiv Post correspondents described the strike as “one of the heaviest they had ever witnessed.”

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/09/2025 11:15

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇱🇹🇩🇰🇫🇮Lithuania, Denmark, and Finland have reported unidentified drones in their airspace.
🔴In Finland, an unknown drone was flown over the Valajaskoski power plant in Rovaniemi. The incident occurred last weekend but was only reported now.
🔴In Denmark, drones were spotted last night over several military sites, including near the Karup airbase.
🔴In Lithuania, on September 26, three drones were flying near Vilnius Airport, causing delays to seven flights.

⚡️ President Zelensky held a press conference [yesterday]. Key points:
🔴On the night of September 10, 92 Russian drones were headed toward Poland. Ukraine intercepted them over its own territory. Ukraine is ready to share its experience in downing drones and will send a consultative group to several countries to help counter them.
🔴A Hungarian drone was recorded flying over Ukrainian territory.
Earlier, Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had tracked reconnaissance drones crossing the Ukrainian-Hungarian border, likely gathering intelligence on industrial potential in Ukraine’s border regions.
🔴A Patriot system delivered by Israel has already been operational in Ukraine for a month. Zelensky added that Ukraine will receive two more systems in the fall, without specifying the supplying country.
🔴Ukraine has deployed a strong domestic system for producing interceptor drones. Many Ukrainian companies know how to build them, but funding remains insufficient.
🔴Ukraine is negotiating two agreements with the United States on arms procurement and drone sales: the Mega Deal and the Drone Deal. The sides have already moved to the technical stage of talks on drone sales. Both agreements were discussed during Zelensky’s meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

🇩🇪 Germany plans to establish a Drone Defense Center.
Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced that the new center will bring together the expertise of federal and state governments. He added that on Thursday night “swarms” of drones were detected over Schleswig-Holstein.
Dobrindt also plans to give the Bundeswehr greater authority to detect, intercept, and shoot down drones. Currently, responsibility for this lies mainly with police forces. Germany’s Interior Ministry intends to present a revised version of the Aviation Security Act this fall.

🇭🇺 Hungarian Deputy Foreign Minister Levente Magyar recalled how, after World War I, Hungary gave up two-thirds of its territory “for the sake of peace,” and suggested that Ukraine might now consider relinquishing a fifth of its land.

Russia attacked Ukraine with 595 drones and 48 missiles. The breakdown is as follows:
🔴593 strike UAVs of the Shahed, Gerbera and other types;
🔴2 rocket-powered UAVs of the “Banderol” type;
🔴2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles;
🔴38 Kh-101 cruise missiles;
🔴8 Kalibr cruise missiles.
The Air Force reports that Ukrainian air defense neutralized 611 aerial targets.
However, 5 missiles and 31 strike UAVs hit 16 locations, with debris falling in another 25.

PerkingFaintly · 28/09/2025 16:40

More on what we've discussed before about remote recruiting of locals to carry out attacks and disruptive activities:

Hostile states recruit youths for crime, Met warns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0q73312zlpo

Children and young adults in London are being recruited by hostile states such as Russia and Iran to carry out sabotage and other crimes, the Metropolitan Police has said.

Commander Murphy in police uniform is seated indoors. He is speaking in front of a desk. A closed door and a dark wall panel are visible in the background.

Met warns that hostile states are recruiting youths for crime

Cdr Dominic Murphy's warning comes weeks after three people were convicted in a case linked to Russia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0q73312zlpo

blueshoes · 28/09/2025 18:14

FT article - Why Ukraine is winning the war

https://archive.ph/9Vb5C

Russia has failed to achieve its core aim — the destruction of the Ukrainian nation

In 2025, the weakest link in Ukraine’s defences still lies in the minds of its western friends. As Russia has failed to gain air and naval superiority or to break through the Ukrainian defences on land, Russian strategy seeks to outflank the Ukrainian position by attacking the will of the Americans and Europeans.
...
As Russia continues to expand its military and its war economy, Europe is scrambling to re-arm, but in the meantime the biggest and most experienced fighting force standing between the Russian army and Warsaw, Berlin or Paris is the Ukrainian army. The Polish, German and French armies each have around 200,000 soldiers, most of whom have never seen combat. The Ukrainian army, in contrast, has approximately 1 million soldiers, most of whom are seasoned veterans.

After two weeks that have seen Russian jet incursions into Estonia and Russian drones over Poland and Romania (and perhaps also Denmark), Europeans should reflect on the fact that if Russia attacks Europe tomorrow, and the US chooses to stay out of the fight, Europe’s biggest military asset will be the Ukrainian army. The US military, too, has much to learn from Ukraine’s battlefield experience and cutting-edge weapons industry. Particularly in the field of drone warfare, Ukraine’s innovations and trove of data make it a world leader. This is probably part of the reason President Trump has lately become more supportive of Ukraine. He likes to back winners.

It is impossible to tell how the war will develop, since it depends on future decisions. But in one crucial respect, the Ukrainian victory is already decisive and irreversible. War is the continuation of politics by other means. War is not won by the side that conquers more land, destroys more cities, or kills more people. War is won by the side that achieves its political aims. And in Ukraine, it is already clear that Putin has failed to achieve his chief war aim — the destruction of the Ukrainian nation.
...
Nobody knows how many more people will die because of Putin’s delusions and ambitions, but one thing that has been made abundantly clear to the entire world is that Ukraine is a very real nation, and that millions of Ukrainians are willing to fight tooth and nail to remain independent of Russia.

Desdemonashandkerchief · 28/09/2025 20:16

Thanks @blueshoesthat made me tear up a little.
Everything seems so negative atm but Ukraine are doing so well.

blueshoes · 28/09/2025 21:07

@Desdemonashandkerchief I hear you Flowers. It can seem futile. I tell myself that is what Russia wants us to believe.

I got another uplifting article from wsj. This time it is about how Russia's oil industry is on a slow but irresistable decline. I will post it in its entirety as it is behind a paywall.

MissConductUS · 28/09/2025 21:33

blueshoes · 28/09/2025 21:07

@Desdemonashandkerchief I hear you Flowers. It can seem futile. I tell myself that is what Russia wants us to believe.

I got another uplifting article from wsj. This time it is about how Russia's oil industry is on a slow but irresistable decline. I will post it in its entirety as it is behind a paywall.

I have a paid subscription. This should get readers around the paywall.

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/the-slow-demise-of-russian-oil-007fbbf7?st=H3VDGA&reflink=desktopwebsharepermalink

If anyone sees something in the WSJ they'd like to post in the thread, @me and I'll post the free link.

blueshoes · 28/09/2025 21:49

Wall Street Journal article. The gas station run by a mafia masquerading as a country is slowly running out of gas. It is not just the Ukraine attacks. It has lower existing reserves it cannot replace nor pull it out of the ground without tools or skilled expertise.

I pasted the article whole as it is worth reading in its entirety for the feel good factor.

The Slow Demise of Russian Oil - WSJ

The Slow Demise of Russian Oil
The toll from war and sanctions has hastened the decline in Russian oil output

Russia has powered its war in Ukraine by keeping its oil flowing. Now, after more than 3½ years of conflict, the gusher is slowly starting to peter out.

The toll of the war and Western sanctions have made extracting oil out of Russia’s already shrinking reservoirs harder. Some projections point to at least around a 10% drop in output by the end of the decade, putting the Kremlin’s economy—and the petrodollars it is built on—in peril.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Moscow has kept oil production and exports relatively stable by focusing on the maintenance of existing fields rather than the exploration of new ones. But the longer-term outlook is bleak. Up to one-third of Russia’s budget revenue comes from the profits of the energy sector and that proportion is likely to shrink as production slows.

Even before the war, many of Russia’s Soviet-era fields, mainly in Western Siberia and the Volga-Urals region, were starting to run low, leaving oil companies to turn to the harder-to-recover crude in its Arctic and Siberian fields.

To improve their odds, Russian majors planned to tap shale formations in Siberia using techniques developed in Texas and North Dakota but the war prevented them. Sanctions prohibited access to the necessary extraction technology and the government raised taxes on oil companies to shore up its war effort. Workers were enticed to the front by lucrative packages for soldiers, while others of fighting age have died in battle or left the country, all factors creating shortages of skilled specialists in the industry.

President Trump has stepped up pressure on the Kremlin to stop its invasion of Ukraine. But even an unlikely swift end to the war and sanctions, which analysts say have already set the sector back years, wouldn’t solve all of Russia’s problems.

“Getting oil out of the ground is harder and more expensive but the deteriorating resource base means you have to run faster every year just to stay in place,” said Matthew Sagers, Russia expert at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “It’s essentially a long, slow goodbye for Russian oil.”

Depleting resources

The share of the country’s oil reserves described as hard-to-recover will rise to 80% by 2030, from 59% now, according to Russia’s Energy Ministry. “This means that both capital and operating costs to bring this resource out of the ground will grow,” Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said at a conference last year.

“The golden era of Russia’s giant conventional oil fields is in the past,” said Daria Melnik, vice president upstream research at consulting firm Rystad Energy.

Russia’s most prolific oil reservoirs are concentrated in the Western Siberia and Volga-Urals regions, which traditionally make up most of the country’s crude output. But oil is depleting quickly in these areas too.

Russia’s production hopes rest on vast Arctic deposits, but extreme weather and hostile geology make extraction expensive and slow. Sanctions are also hampering the development of new Siberian fields.

As the oil reserves dwindle, there are fewer places to look for viable alternatives amid rising costs and a lack of tools.

Lacking tools

Developing oil sites, extracting and transporting crude requires a huge range of highly specialized equipment, many of which Russia lacks because of sanctions.

It doesn’t have the latest software to analyze data from rocks and wells to figure out where and how much oil there is and how to get it out of the ground. Even if Russian oil companies possess such computer programs, since 2022 many have been barred from updates, rendering them unusable in many cases, analysts say.

Russian operators are also missing certain sensors built into the drill that transmit real-time information about rock layers, fluids and the drill’s position. Last year, Aleksandr Dyukov, chief executive of oil producer Gazprom Neft, said that the company was missing around 200 items needed to extract and refine oil. The company has set itself a goal to eliminate the shortage by 2027.

Nor does Russia have enough ice-strengthened tankers capable of moving Arctic oil and gas because Western export controls have choked off access to foreign-built ships, key components and technology. Some Asian shipyards, including in South Korea, the world leader in the industry, have canceled Russian orders for such vessels and domestic yards have so far been unable to replace that capacity quickly.

Rising costs

As Russia’s crude reserves diminish, the price of extracting each barrel goes up. That is because what is left in the reservoirs becomes physically harder and therefore more expensive to reach.

But that is just the geology.

The war has exacerbated the costs. Western sanctions mean acquiring equipment—often via third countries—is more expensive. The labor crunch has pushed wages of oil workers for instance, as well as solid materials such as sand that are pumped into a fracked well to keep the cracks open to allow oil or gas to flow out.

“Everything is more expensive,” said Sagers. “All these pressures at home make it very hard for Russia to raise production even in the near term.”

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
blueshoes · 28/09/2025 21:53

@MissConductUS oops did not see your link before posting. Thank you!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/09/2025 22:57

Hearing rumours that Moldova has chosen Maia Sandu. Hope it's true.

PerkingFaintly · 29/09/2025 01:05

More of the same.

Recruited on Telegram to carry wi-fi sniffers past Europol, Eurojust and the Canadian embassy in The Hague, allegedly.

Two Dutch teenagers arrested in spying case linked to Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj1wy3eexyo

The exterior of the Europol building in the Hague - a dark blue sign with the Europol name in white text stands below a tall concrete building

Netherlands: Two teenagers arrested in spying case linked to Russia

The pair were allegedly recruited by pro-Russian hackers and used a "wi-fi sniffer" on the Europol headquarters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj1wy3eexyo

PerkingFaintly · 29/09/2025 01:06

This must be happening in the UK as well.

There's no earthly reason Russia wouldn't do it to every country it considers hostile – and probably most of its friends too...

blueshoes · 29/09/2025 03:16

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-28-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. US Vice President JD Vance criticized Russia’s rejection of American invitations to engage in bilateral or trilateral negotiations as Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate their lack of interest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.
  2. Russian forces conducted the third largest combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine of the war to date on the night of September 27 to 28 with 643 total projectiles.
  3. European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace.
  4. Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians called for protests in Moldova following the September 28 parliamentary election.
  5. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized that Russia will use its upcoming United Nations Security Council (UNSC) presidency to “review” the 1995 Dayton Accords in a likely effort to destabilize the Balkans and divide and distract Europe.
  6. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Novopavlivka.
Igotjelly · 29/09/2025 09:33

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/09/2025 22:57

Hearing rumours that Moldova has chosen Maia Sandu. Hope it's true.

Now confirmed 🇲🇩 ❤️ 🇪🇺

Desdemonashandkerchief · 29/09/2025 10:55

Very happy that Moldova avoided the long reach of russia this time. Round ups on the way but may be spread out as I’m travelling.

Desdemonashandkerchief · 29/09/2025 11:05

Live:Ukraine

🔹 Ukrainian intelligence officers destroyed a vehicle carrying four occupiers in Melitopol.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense carried out an operation in which they destroyed a Russian UAZ “Bukhanka” vehicle along with at least four UAV operators of the occupying army who were inside.

This took place at a closed, guarded Russian military base located in the aviation town of temporarily occupied Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia region.

🇪🇪🇺🇦 Estonia has allocated €10 million to purchase weapons for Ukraine via the PURL mechanism.

According to Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, Estonia is contributing these funds “to urgently strengthen Ukraine’s defense.”

“Since Russia shows no signs of wanting peace, Ukraine needs rapid support to protect civilians, hold positions and advance towards peace,” Tsahkna emphasized.

▪️PURL is a new mechanism created by US and NATO representatives to supply weapons to Ukraine. Under this system Ukraine prepares a prioritized requirements list that specifies the weapons most needed on the front right now. NATO allies then buy US-made weapons or donate their own, if available in their arsenals.

🇲🇩28th Sep. Overseas polling stations for Moldova’s parliamentary elections are being massively targeted with bomb threats.

Reports of “mining” came from Brussels, Rome, Genoa, Bucharest, Asheville in the U.S., and Alicante in Spain.

By noon, more than 100,000 Moldovan citizens had already voted abroad.

At the same time, in Rome so-called “carousel” schemes were recorded — attempts to smuggle out blank ballots for later use. The PAS party blamed the Kremlin for these falsification attempts.

Meanwhile, in Moscow, dance groups were organized to perform at polling stations.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu released an address to citizens, stating that other violations include voter transportation and vote-buying. She urged Moldovans not to fall for provocations and to vote honestly.

🇩🇰about:blank ⚠️For the second night in a row, drones have been spotted near Danish military facilities

The military deployed several units to counter the drones, though details of the incident have not yet been disclosed.

about:blank 🔴On the night of September 27, unidentified drones were also recorded over several Danish Armed Forces facilities, including near Karup Air Base.

about:blank 🔴Earlier, two Danish airports suspended operations due to drone incursions. At the same time, a Russian warship, the Alexander Shabalin, was spotted near the country’s territorial waters.

🔸 JD Vance: The Russians need to wake up and accept the reality. A lot of people are dying, they don't have a lot to show for it. How many more people are they willing to lose? How many more will they kill for very little, if any, gain on the ground? Hopefully not that much, but our attitude is we’ll keep working for peace and hope the Russians wake up to the reality on the ground.

💥 Explosions in Russia’s Belgorod knocked out power and water supplies, with a local power plant possibly hit.

Local channels reported at least five powerful blasts in the city.

Afterwards, the governor of Belgorod region confirmed “major disruptions to electricity.” Residents say much of the city has been left without power and water.

According to Ukrainian OSINT sources, the Belgorod thermal power plant was struck.

❗️Russia is using oil tankers to launch drones in European countries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

According to him, Ukrainian intelligence reports confirm this.

“This is further proof that the Baltic Sea and other seas must be closed to Russian tankers, at least to the shadow fleet,” Zelensky stressed.

The “shadow fleet” is a network of oil tankers Russia has created to bypass international sanctions imposed over its aggression against Ukraine. This fleet enables the Kremlin to continue exporting oil — including to China and India — even after the EU restricted imports of Russian crude.

🔹 U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance confirmed that the Trump administration is discussing the potential provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

“The President will do what best serves the interests of the United States of America. That is the driving force behind his decisions in foreign and defense policy,” Vance said.

🇺🇸 Donald Trump has authorized Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes on targets inside Russia, U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg said.

“I think if you read what he said, as well as what Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, the answer is yes. Use the ability to strike at long distances. There are no sanctuaries,” Kellogg said in response to a question on whether Trump had sanctioned long-range strikes against Russia.

Kellogg also noted that a final decision has not yet been made on whether the U.S. will provide Ukraine with Tomahawk long-range missiles.

▪️A day earlier, U.S. Vice President JD Vance confirmed that Washington is discussing the potential transfer of Tomahawks, which President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly requested directly from Trump. However, the ultimate decision rests with the U.S. President.

🇳🇴 In Norway, a passenger plane was forced to turn back due to an unidentified drone spotted near an airport.

The drone was seen in Norwegian airspace on the evening of September 28, forcing a flight from Oslo to Bardufoss to turn around. Tromsø Airport was closed as a result.

Earlier the same day, a UAV was detected inside a no-drone zone near Brønnøysund Airport in Nordland, leading to one flight being diverted to another airport.

▪️On September 23, Oslo Airport was also closed due to drones, when police arrested two foreign nationals.

⚡️🇲🇩 The pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has won the parliamentary elections in Moldova.

With 99.91% of protocols processed, the ruling PAS — led by President Maia Sandu — secured 50.16% of the vote, giving it a majority in parliament.

In second place is the opposition Patriotic Electoral Bloc, led in part by former pro-Russian president Igor Dodon, with 24.19%.

Also entering parliament are the pro-European bloc Alternative (7.97%), Renato Usatîi’s Our Party (6.20%), and Democracy at Home (5.62%).

Over 1.5 million Moldovans cast their votes, with turnout at around 52%.

💥 Ukrainian forces have destroyed a Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter.

Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, released footage of the strike. The helicopter was hit and destroyed by an FPV drone operated by pilots of the 59th Brigade of the Unmanned Systems Forces.

PerkingFaintly · 29/09/2025 11:07

And another variation on remotely recruiting civilians to degrade infrastracture.

Ransom gang offer BBC reporter money to let them use his accounts on BBC systems. They claimed to have been behind hacks on a UK healthcare company and a US emergency services provider using the same recruit-an-insider technique.

'You'll never need to work again': Criminals offer reporter money to hack BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3w5n903447o
Medusa is a ransomware-as-a-service operation. Any criminal affiliate can sign up to its platform and use it to hack organisations.

According to a research report from cyber security firm CheckPoint, Medusa's administrators are thought to operate out of Russia or one of its allied states.

"The group avoids targeting organisations within Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States and [its activity is predominantly] on Russian-language dark web forums."

Joe Tidy looking down at a phone. He has short brown hair and is wearing a light blue shirt.

'You'll never need to work again': Criminals offer reporter money to hack BBC

Reporter Joe Tidy was offered money if he would help cyber criminals access BBC systems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3w5n903447o

Desdemonashandkerchief · 29/09/2025 11:12

Kyiv Independent:

⚡️Ukraine's military intelligence claims killing Russian drone operators in occupied Melitopol.

HUR claimed that an explosion rocked a guarded military base on the airfield in occupied Melitopol, destroying a Soviet-era UAZ-452 van and at least four operators who were allegedly inside the vehicle.

⚡️Polish Embassy in Kyiv struck in Russia's large-scale overnight attack.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pawel Wronski told Polish outlet RMF24 that "a missile element or a small-caliber rocket" fell on the roof of the embassy, piercing through the ceiling.

Russia launched almost 500 drones and over 40 missiles overnight on Sept. 28, killing at least four people and injuring over 70 primarily in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia.

⚡️Trump to make 'final determination' on supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles as Russia 'refuses' peace talks, Vance says.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance confirmed on Sept. 28 that the U.S. is "looking at" providing Kyiv with Tomahawk missiles, as Moscow continues to refuse bilateral and trilateral peace talks brokered by President Donald Trump.

⚡️Ukrainian HIMARS reportedly strike thermal power plant in Russia's Belgorod Oblast.

Power outages were reported across Belgorod Oblast following the attack that struck one of the substations, Russian media reported.

⚡️Hungary, Slovakia push back against EU plan to phase out Russian energy.

Speaking at the 130th anniversary of the Maria Valeria Bridge, which links Sturovo, Slovakia, and Esztergom, Hungary, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said: "No one should tell us where to buy oil and gas from."

⚡️Bryansk Oblast factory that supplies Russia's military reportedly burns following drone strike.

The Karachev electrical components plant in Russia's Bryansk Oblast is reportedly burning following a drone attack overnight on Sept. 29, local media reported.

⚡️'There are no such things as sanctuaries' — Ukraine can conduct strikes deep within Russian territory, Kellogg says.

Washington authorizes specific instances where Ukraine can carry out long-range strikes within Russia, U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg said on Sept. 28 in an interview with Fox News.

⚡️Russian attacks kill 3, injure 76 in Ukraine over past day.

The largest number of injuries was reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where a Russian attack wounded 49 people.

⚡️Some Russian units encircled near Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast, Syrskyi says.

Over the past month, Ukrainian forces have been pushing back Russian troops who had advanced 15-20 kilometers (6 miles) toward the strategic Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway, near the contested city of Pokrovsk.

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Sept. 29, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Desdemonashandkerchief · 29/09/2025 11:20

United 24 Media:

🇩🇪 Germany plans to establish a Center for Drone Protection.

Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced that the new center will combine the competences of federal and state authorities. He added that on Friday night, “swarms” of drones were detected over Schleswig-Holstein.

Dobrindt also intends to expand the Bundeswehr’s powers to detect, intercept, and shoot down drones — tasks that currently fall mainly to the police. The Interior Ministry plans to present an updated version of the Aviation Security Act this fall.

🔹 In total, more than 70 people were injured in the massive night shelling of Ukraine on September 28.

“We are working at 8 locations in Kyiv. Four people died. Among them is a 12-year-old girl crushed by a concrete slab. A nurse and a patient died at the Institute of Cardiology. Another person was found dead at the site of a strike on civilian infrastructure,” said Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.

At least 30 residents of a high-rise building in Zaporizhzhia were injured, including three children.

🤡 Everyone understands what Russia’s reaction would be if Kyiv attempted to attack the Kremlin, — Peskov.

“We need to force Kyiv to take the path of peace, not war, and the Europeans to abandon militaristic positions,” he added.

American singer Jason Derulo gave a solo concert at the CSKA Arena in Moscow on September 26. [That’s him off my Christmas list]

🔸 The roof of the consular section of the Polish Embassy in Kyiv was damaged by Russian shelling. A missile element or a small-caliber rocket pierced the ceiling, Polish Foreign Ministry spokesman Pawel Wronski told RMF24.

According to him, there were no injuries.

Wronski added that the incident would not affect the embassy’s work, and the consular section in Kyiv would operate normally on Monday.

❗️The blackout at the Zaporizhzhia NPP was the result of deliberate sabotage by Russian troops.

“Before the power line was cut, there were no shelling or attacks. This indicates deliberate sabotage by Russian forces.”

This is already the tenth disconnection of the plant from external power, and it has lasted more than five days — the longest since the occupation.

🔹 In Belgorod, unidentified drones struck a thermal power plant, leaving parts of the city without electricity and water.

🔸 In recent weeks, Russia has refused bilateral meetings with Ukrainian representatives and trilateral meetings involving Trump or other US officials, Vance said.

“The Russians are killing and at the same time suffering heavy losses while achieving virtually no results,” the US Vice President noted.

According to him, it’s time for Russians to “wake up and accept reality.”

🔹 The British newspaper The Times has revealed the identities of 13 Russian commanders accused of war crimes in Bucha. The officers were identified by independent lawyers and investigators using open-source intelligence. All 13 were confirmed by Ukrainian intelligence agencies.

“Russian troops occupied Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv, for just under a month. During those 29 days in early 2022, they committed acts of such brutality that this Ukrainian town will forever become synonymous with war crimes; the Srebrenica of this conflict,” the journalists wrote.

The Russian commanders named by The Times are:

▫️ Colonel Azatbek Omurbekov of the 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, who, according to the State Department, personally took part in “gross human rights violations” and is directly responsible for murders, rapes, and torture;
▫️ Colonel General Alexander Sanchyk, under whose command civilians were tortured and raped in Bucha;
▫️ Colonel General Valery Solodchuk, promoted by Vladimir Putin this year;
▫️ Colonel Yuri Medvedev, whose soldiers committed more than 40 acts of rape. He was killed by rebel Russian forces in 2022;
▫️ Colonel Andrei Kondrov, whose soldiers are accused of killing civilians and looting;
▫️ Colonel Artyom Horodilov, under US sanctions for “gross human rights violations,” including extrajudicial executions;
▫️ Lieutenant Colonel Denis Suvorov, who kidnapped a Ukrainian officer, tied him to a tree, tortured him, and dumped his body;
▫️ Colonel Alexei Tolmachet, whose regiment is accused of illegal detention, staged executions, ill-treatment, and looting;
▫️ Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, who was at the command post on Yablunskaya Street in Bucha, the center of the violence;
▫️ Major General Vadim Pankov, who ordered soldiers to kill 30 local residents and forced civilians to remove the bodies of dead Russians;
▫️ Colonel Sergei Karasev, accused of attacking a woman, knocking out her teeth with a pistol, and shooting a civilian in the head.

🔸 Estonia is allocating €10 million for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine through the PURL mechanism, Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said.

He stressed that the funds are aimed at “urgently strengthening Ukraine’s defense.”

According to Tsahkna, since Russia has not shown any desire for peace, Ukraine needs urgent support to protect civilians, hold its ground, and bring peace closer.

🔹Russia’s oil production costs are rising as reserves dwindle, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Extracting each barrel is becoming more difficult and therefore more expensive. The war has also driven up costs: Western sanctions have complicated equipment purchases, often forcing Russia to buy through third countries. Labor shortages have pushed up wages for oil workers, while the price of hard materials like sand, used in extraction, has also risen.

“Everything has become more expensive. All of this internal pressure is making it extremely difficult for Russia to increase production even in the near term,” said Matthew Sagers, a Russia expert at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

🇲🇩 Moldovan elections: President Sandu’s party leads

According to the CEC, 99.65% of protocols have been processed.

The “Action and Solidarity” (PAS) party holds the lead with 50.05% of the vote, followed by the pro-Russian “Patriotic Bloc” with 24.25%, and the “Alternative” bloc in third with 7.98%.

Sandu has stated that her party will form coalitions in parliament only with pro-European parties.

Dodon, as expected, claimed there were “a large number of frauds” in the elections and insisted that PAS “lost, and the opposition won and must unite.” His supporters plan a mass rally today at 12:00 local time.

The previous evening, Moldovan police warned of groups intending to organize riots and destabilize Chisinau on Monday night, and three men were detained on suspicion of preparing mass unrest.

⚡️An FPV drone took out a Russian Mi-28 “Night Hunter”

A $500 drone vs. a $20 million helicopter 🔥

🔸 The Russian economy is sinking further into militarization: even if the war in Ukraine ends, the Kremlin has no plans to reduce defense spending, Bloomberg reports.

Years of record government orders have reshaped Russian industry, retooling factories for military production and drawing hundreds of thousands of workers. While this model prevents a recession, it leaves the economy vulnerable and heavily dependent on constant military output.

Desdemonashandkerchief · 29/09/2025 11:39

Got through them all before take off thanks to a small delay! The Kyiv Post had nothing additional to add to what has already been covered.

notimagain · 29/09/2025 11:40

Russia is using oil tankers to launch drones in European countries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.According to him, Ukrainian intelligence reports confirm this.“This is further proof that the Baltic Sea and other seas must be closed to Russian tankers, at least to the shadow fleet,” Zelensky stressed.

Not sure where that sits with maritime law but maybe we are past the point where that matters anymore.

There's still a lot of arguments/discussion going on about what it is claimed is being detected around some of the european airports..

Launching a few cheap drones off tankers is as good as way as any of disrupting traffic at coastal or near coastal airports, and anything, even speculation, that leads to defences being beefed up is a good thing.

blueshoes · 30/09/2025 02:33

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-29-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian President Vladimir Putin issued the decree to start the semi-annual fall conscription cycle on October 1.
  2. The Kremlin plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2026 — about 38 percent of its planned annual expenditures.
  3. The Russian government is planning to increase funding to televised propaganda – in line with increased restrictions on social media and internet access.
  4. US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg acknowledged that Ukraine has US permission to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory. [this is a big deal, right?]
  5. Kremlin officials are trying to preemptively deter the United States from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.
  6. European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace.
  7. The pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a parliamentary majority in the September 28 elections in Moldova, as Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians and Russian officials are preparing to appeal the results and call for protests in the coming days.
  8. Ukrainian forces advanced near Lyman and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/09/2025 09:54

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Europe 'no longer at peace' (kyivindependent.com/europe-no-longer-at-peace-with-russia-germanys-merz-says/) with Russia, Germany's Merz says.
"Let me put it in a sentence that may be a little shocking at first glance ... we are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Sept. 29.

⚡️Germany to deliver (kyivindependent.com/germany-to-deliver-2-patriot-systems-to-ukraine-by-2026-pistorius-says/) 2 Patriot systems to Ukraine by 2026, Pistorius says.
"Russia's recent attack with more than 580 and over 40 missiles have once again underlined the importance of strengthening Ukraine's air defense," German Defense Minister Boris Pistoruis said.

⚡️ Sweden says no agreement yet (kyivindependent.com/sweden-says-no-agreement-yet-on-gripen-jets-for-ukraine/) on Gripen jets for Ukraine.
The statement followed the BBC's reporting that Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havryliuk had hinted that Kyiv is "expecting" additional deliveries of Western aircraft, including Swedish Gripen jets.

⚡️European Council president seeks (kyivindependent.com/eu-council-president-seeks-to-bypass-hungarys-veto-on-ukraines-eu-accession-politico-reports/) to bypass Hungary’s veto on Ukraine’s EU accession, Politico reports.
European Council President Antonio Costa has already discussed the proposal with several EU leaders, according to Politico.

⚡️Ukrainian specialists join Danish forces for counter-drone drills (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-specialists-join-danish-forces-for-counter-drone-drills-amid-airspace-violations/) amid airspace violations.
Ukrainian military specialists have arrived in Denmark to take part in joint counter-drone exercises following recent reports of unidentified drones violating the Nordic country's airspace, officials said Sept. 29. [@notimagain it seems that these ones in Denmark are being seen as Russian, including from what Danish politicans have cautiously implied]

⚡️Update: Ukrainian delegation heads (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-planning-major-arms-deals-zelensky-says/) to US for joint drone production talks.
A Ukrainian delegation departed for the U.S. on Sept. 29 to attend a meeting on joint drone production, the Defense Ministry told Suspilne.
The delegation, led by Deputy Defense Minister Serhii Boyev, is expected to focus discussions primarily on technical issues.

⚡️ Poland continues to fund Starlink (kyivindependent.com/poland-continues-to-fund-starlink-for-ukraine-kyiv-says/) for Ukraine after President Nawrocki signed assistance bill.
"During the war, this technology is of critical importance — to keep hospitals, schools, critical infrastructure, and front-line regions connected," Ukraine's Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.

⚡️Orban says (kyivindependent.com/orban-says-ukraine-isnt-sovereign-following-alleged-hungarian-drone-incursion/) Ukraine 'is not a sovereign country' following alleged Hungarian drone incursion.

⚡️Hungary bans (kyivindependent.com/hungary-bans-12-ukrainian-media-outlets/) 12 Ukrainian media outlets.
Hungary blocked 12 Ukrainian media outlets in response to Kyiv's earlier ban on several foreign, including Hungarian, publications over Russian narratives, Hungarian Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyas said on Sept. 29.

⚡️Polish president submits bill criminalizing denial of Volyn massacre.
(kyivindependent.com/polish-president-submits-bill-criminalizing-denial-of-volyn-massacre/)
Nawrocki's proposed legislation also extends the period needed to obtain Polish citizenship and calls for harsher penalties for illegal border crossings.

Ukraine war latest: Russian military-linked factory in Bryansk Oblast hit with Neptune missiles (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-119/), Kyiv says
Ukrainian forces struck the Elektrodetal factory in the town of Karachev, located in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast; A Ukrainian FPV (first-person-view) drone took down a Russian Mi-28N in Donetsk Oblast; and more.

'Tantamount to defeat' — even Russian propagandists don't think the war in Ukraine is going well
(kyivindependent.com/russian-propagandists-unexpectedly-echo-trump-casting-doubt-on-russia-s-army-ability-to-advance/)
After months of disagreement over peace talks, the White House and several Kremlin propagandists are finally in unison about something — Russia's war in Ukraine is not going well for Moscow.

⚡️Zelensky calls (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-calls-for-closing-baltic-sea-to-russia-over-drone-launches/) for closing Baltic Sea for Russia over drone incursions.
"There is growing evidence that Russia may have used tankers in the Baltic Sea to launch drones — the drones that caused major disruption in Northern Europe," President Volodymyr Zelensky said. [Would it be possible to close ~international~ waters to a sovereign power?]

Slump in Russian dividends adds pressure to war-stretched public finances
(kyivindependent.com/slump-in-russian-dividends-adds-pressure-to-war-stretched-public-finances/)
Russian companies are slashing dividend payments as lower oil prices and a stronger ruble weigh on profits, complicating the government’s efforts to finance higher spending on the country’s decade-long war against Ukraine.
Interim dividends declared by Russian firms — many of which the state partly owns — for the first half of 2025 almost halved versus last year to 341.8 billion rubles ($4.09 billion), according to calculations by Russian business daily Kommersant, after lower commodity prices hit profits.

⚡️Update: Ukrainian forces shot down (kyivindependent.com/fpv-drone-destroys-russian-mi-28n-helicopter-military-says/) Russian Mi-8 helicopter in Donetsk Oblast using FPV drone, military says.
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces initially reported on Sept. 29 that the downed aircraft was a Mi-28N attack helicopter. However, further reconnaissance confirmed it was a Mi-8 transport helicopter.

⚡️Unidentified drone spotted (kyivindependent.com/unidentified-drone-spotted-over-norwegian-gas-field-police-investigating/) over Norwegian gas field, police investigating.
An unidentified drone was observed flying over the Equinor-operated Sleipner gas field in the North Sea on the evening of Sept. 29, according to Norwegian police, as reported by local media outlet VG.

⚡️Russian drone strike in Sumy Oblast kills entire family. (kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-strike-in-sumy-oblast-kills-entire-family/)
The attack killed a married couple and their two sons, ages 6 and 4, in the Krasnopillia community near the Sumy Oblast border.

⚡️Russian attacks kill (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-9-injure-15-in-ukraine-over-past-day/) 9, injure 15 in Ukraine over past day.
Russian forces launched 65 Shahed-type drones and decoys from Russia’s Bryansk, Orel, Primorsk-Akhtarsk, Millerovo, and Russian-occupied Crimea, at Ukraine overnight, according to Ukraine's Air Force.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 1h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — SEP 30, 2025
■ Casualties & engagements near average
■ Fewer equipment losses; 4 tanks included ■ Overnight attacks: all drones; interception rate could be better
■ Single-digit 🇺🇦 strikes; ratio could be better

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
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