Ukraine Invasion: Part 58

[MagicFox]

We’re all still here for Thread 58. Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️President Zelenskyy called at the UN for the development of common rules on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in weapons systems.
“This is as urgent as stopping the spread of nuclear weapons. Ten years ago, no one could have imagined drones capable of creating dead zones tens of kilometers wide, where nothing moves. Ukraine and Saudi Arabia know how dangerous Iranian drones are. Stopping the arms race is far cheaper than building underground kindergartens or massive bunkers to hide critical infrastructure,” he said.

🇩🇰 The Danish government views the reappearance of unknown drones over the country, including near military facilities, as a hybrid attack, Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said.
He noted that while those responsible have not yet been, “it certainly doesn’t look like a coincidence — it looks like systematic action.”

Russia to Introduce Year-Round Military Conscription — Radio Svoboda
The State Duma has reportedly passed a bill in its first reading that extends conscription for military service to run from January 1 to December 31.
The legislation would allow military recruitment offices to conduct medical examinations, psychological screenings, and draft board meetings throughout the year. Conscripts will still be sent to military units twice a year, in spring and fall, as before. The draft law also stipulates that summonses will be issued to conscripts regardless of the month.

😡 Russia is shelling Kherson with cluster munitions from the DPRK, according to Defense Express.
These are JU-90 submunitions, which analysts say are unreliable and pose an increased threat to civilians.
Police have released the first photos from the site of the shelling, and the Telegram channel “UZH Vodohray” showed images with Korean inscriptions on the munition bodies.
Analysts suggest the ammunition is launched from M1991 rocket systems or modified BM-21 “Grad” VM-11. Russia has also received 107-mm cluster rockets for Type-75 from the DPRK, which are already being used on the front.

US Vice President J.D. Vance said that Russia could face serious consequences if it does not engage in good faith negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. [oh aye?]

🕯 One person killed in a Russian terrorist attack in the Kharkiv region — State Emergency Service.

As of September 2025, Ukraine and Russia have the largest armies in Europe, according to Visual Capitalist. Ukraine, strengthened by wartime mobilization, has around 900,000 active troops and a total of 2.2 million, while Russia fields 1.3 million active personnel and 3.5 million in total.
Together, the two warring countries have a combined military force larger than all of Western Europe. However, European NATO members—including Ukraine—maintain 2.8 million active troops, exceeding Russia’s active forces. Türkiye, Poland, and the United Kingdom lead NATO in size, while smaller countries like Finland have large reserves despite having fewer active troops.

At the World Armwrestling Championship, Ukraine’s team won five medals: one gold and four bronze.

Don't know but it might be the Turks doing it for reasons unknown

TBH whilst the Russians are the usual culprits ATM they aren't the only ones, there's a hotspot on the SE med ATM that may well be down to Israel, and one or two others dotted around the globe possibly tied in with Electronic warfare testing or training..

There were sometimes even problems over parts of north west England due to an electronic warfare range in that part of the UK, though it doesn't look active today...

So it's really quite a regular thing in one way or another. So planes are (relatively) used to handling it?

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russia’s national defense spending will drop from the post-Soviet peak of 13.5 trillion rubles in 2025 to 12.6 trillion rubles in 2026, Reuters reports.
Economic growth is expected to fall to 1%, down from 4.3% last year. The budget deficit will reach 2.6% of GDP — the highest level since the start of the war.

🇵🇦 Panama has revoked the registration of more than 200 tankers from Russia’s shadow fleet.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced this after meeting with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino. The two leaders discussed, among other things, the importance of sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet.
“Panama has already revoked the registration of more than 200 Russian tankers, including those deemed unsafe for use,” Zelensky said.
He also invited José Raúl Mulino to visit Ukraine.

▪️The shadow fleet is a network of oil tankers Russia has assembled to circumvent international sanctions imposed over its war against Ukraine. This fleet allows the Kremlin to continue exporting oil, particularly to China and India, despite EU restrictions on Russian crude.

Zelensky spoke at the general debate of the UN General Assembly. Here’s what he said:
🔴“No one but ourselves can guarantee our security. But only under the condition of strong alliances, partners, and weapons. This century is almost no different from the last: a people who seek peace must work on armament. It’s abnormal, but that is reality — weapons decide who will survive.”
🔴“International law works only if you have influential friends who are ready to stand up for you. But even that won’t work without weapons. The only guarantee of security is friends and weapons.”
🔴He criticized international institutions for their weakness and inability to stop the bloodshed.
🔴The president reminded of the thousands of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia and mentioned another blackout at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
🔴Zelensky emphasized the dangerous availability of kamikaze drones and called for the creation of new international rules, including regarding the use of AI in weaponry.
🔴“Stopping Russia now is cheaper than trying to protect every port and every ship from terrorists and maritime drones later.”
🔴“Ukraine does not have the big, fat rockets that dictators like to flaunt in parades, but we have drones that can fly two to three thousand kilometers. We had no other choice but to create them.”

🔴“We aim to open up arms exports. We have weapons tested in real war where international institutions have failed. With partners’ support, we are ready to develop such production so that you don’t have to start from scratch.”

Russians killed two people in Kostiantynivka and wounded eight more.
The enemy dropped three air bombs on the city in Donetsk region. As a result of the strike, two men aged 42 and 69 were killed.

🇿🇦 South Africa is ready to host a possible meeting between Zelensky and Putin.
This was announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after his meeting with South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa. He stressed that unlike Russia, Ukraine is prepared for a leaders’ meeting without any preconditions.
“I thank Cyril Ramaphosa for South Africa’s readiness to host such a meeting and for the country’s involvement in the peace process,” the president added.
▪️Earlier, reports mentioned at least seven countries ready to host a meeting between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia — Austria, the Vatican, Switzerland, Turkey, and three Gulf states.

U.S. First Lady Melania Trump will not meet with Olena Zelenska — despite repeated requests from Ukraine’s first lady.
“Mrs. Zelenska reached out several times with the initiative to arrange a meeting, but there is no bilateral meeting. Nothing official has been planned,” said Mark Beckman, senior adviser to the U.S. First Lady.

Notable that Panama has de-registered 200 ships. They've long been known as one of the countries who will accept any ship from anywhere in any condition.

Regular in some parts of the world - you'd expect it on almost every overflight of the eastern Med maybe a decade ago...and from what I'm hearing It's certainly and sadly become frequent...

Generally and certainly on older aircraft the onboard receivers sense the interference, dump the GPS input and fall back on other methods for navigation until GPS normality is restored.

You really only have a problem if you are on a route or in airspace where you need the sort of navigation accuracy only sat nav can give you...even if that happens there's usually a work around.

That said from what I'm hearing some newer aircraft may be a bit more vulnerable because of the way some newer systems are more reliant on Sat Nav than was previously the case.

One of the news outlets said that military planes are relying on military satnav satellites. Is that accurate? clearly it must have been hardened, and the plane too, against interference then.

Doesn't ring any bells with me and TBH don't really know what they mean ...I wonder if the author does.

It"s true that GPS (which FWIW is now only one of several sat nav constellationd) was originally a military system so wonder if that's caused some confusion.

As I recall it right from the get go civvies had access to GPS albeit with slightly reduced accuracy initially. As I recall it the selective accuracy feature was removed a long time ago...

One prob GPS supposedly does have is the satellites don't push out a massively powerful signal so it's fairly easy to overwhelm receivers over a reasonably sized area by just transmitting a lot of noise on the appropriate frequencies, which can be done with a fairly simple transmitter.

I have say ATM Putin doesn't have to do much to get the western media wetting itself.

According to the MSM any computer problem is a Russian cyber attack, any GPS outage is reported as a direct attack on a politician and any strange unrecognised light seen by somebody near an airport is immediately tagged as a Russian drone incursion of NATO airspace.

He's raising anxiety levels without doing much, if anything....

From what I've seen politicians and some press are being cautious in their phrasing. Perhaps the gutter press less so.

This is doing Putin's work for him if it's happening though; making him out to be a bogeyman. On the other hand, it may help prepare the public for better defense spending.

I'd agree with that, I think in the last few hours some of the rhetoric has been toned down a little bit.

I know Article 4 has been mentioned again with regard to the drone reports..I hope if it is invoked the evidence for doing so is more than just some eyewitness reports.

@MissConductUS any thoughts on what this is all about? https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/09/25/hegseth-generals-quantico-meeting/

I've no idea, but I'm sure details will leak between now and next week.

It’s possibly something to do with Hegseth’s thing about firing a load or military personnel? But who knows, it doesn’t seem to make much sense

Some heavyweights seem to think that it really was Russian work, at least in Poland and where else was it, I forget. Estonia? Lithuania?

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2025/

Key Takeaways

1. The Kremlin is using nuclear threats to influence US President Donald Trump to stop his efforts to secure peace in Ukraine.
2. Russia launched a multipronged informational campaign intended to mask Russia’s economic weakness that US President Donald Trump recently correctly identified.
3. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his commitment to engaging in peace negotiations and holding elections in accordance with the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian law.
4. Former Ukrainian Command-in-Chief and current Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Kingdom General Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on September 24 that Russian forces are adapting technological innovations and ground tactics in an attempt to restore maneuver to the battlefield.
5. Russian jamming originating from Kaliningrad Oblast likely disrupted the GPS on Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles’ plane flying to Lithuania on September 24.
6. Ukrainian forces recently conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russia and occupied Crimea, including against Russian oil infrastructure and drone production facilities.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

True, but this is where the language is important and this is why the blanket use of "drones" as a term for any unmanned aerial vehicle can be dangerous.

From what we are being told the drones in/over Poland were the heavy armed Shaheed devices, carrying warheads, designed to kill...I think Article 4 was an absolutely reasonable call and the announced counter measures proportionate.

OTOH we, the general public, don't know what, if anything, was flying around e.g. Copenhagen airport...if it was simply some idiots flying small hobby drones for a joke we are not in Article 4 territory, if it was something a bit more organised using slightly bigger quadricopters then Article 4 is a maybe...

I don't think improving the defence posture is a bad thing at all, especially in the current climate, but we've maybe got to be careful of seeing or being told, that everything is a hostile act.

I was reading some commentary last night saying that they are fairly certain they’re state actors because of the length of time they were in the air?

Yet usually the authorities claim these things are difficult to track/difficult to interdict..something identified as one device definitely tracked as being airborne for that length of time near a major airport would be easy to at the very least image from a police helicopter and yet....?

We do know some airports were shut for several hours but that also happened at Gatwick in 2018 and the police theory was it was possibly multiple drones...

Sorry to sound so sceptical about this but I was still flying out of the London airports when the Gatwick debacle happened...I think pretty much everybody on the ATC and flying side of that one thinks the authorities, especially the police, panicked and at worse there was one drone on minute 1 of day 1 but that started the panic going and then anything that moved was a drone...

I'd be really interested in seeing what the actual evidence is in the current event...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/01/the-mystery-of-the-gatwick-drone

Just spotted this in French news this AM, drone report from northern France headlined by a quite alarming and potentially missleading generic image...

https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/4175400-20250926-base-militaire-survolee-plusieurs-drones-marne

I"m afraid we're off to the races now, fast heading into confirmation bias /mass panic territory where any lights in the sky are perceived as drones so I'm bracing for more reports.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias#:~:text=Confirmation%20bias%20(also%20confirmatory%20bias,one's%20prior%20beliefs%20or%20values.

It does feel that way doesn’t it.

Deputy PM of the United Kingdom David Lammy:

Our message to #Ukraine is clear. We will stand with you today, tomorrow and 100 years from now.

🇬🇧🇺🇦

https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lzpxltc4nc2y

@notimagain

"From what we are being told the drones in/over Poland were the heavy armed Shaheed devices, carrying warheads, designed to kill."
Was that a typo, or is Tusk playing down the situation?

Drones that entered Poland on Sept. 10 carried no warheads, Tusk says

Russia picked the most war ready in Europe to test their strength first it seems. Did Poland fail the test by only shooting down 4 out of 19?
I don't imagine Hungary is waiting to shoot one down at all!

Interesting comment by Tusk.

IMO successfully engaging 4 out 19 isn't bad if Poland are not on the sort of alert status Ukraine is on.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Trump's Ukraine rhetoric shift signals reduced US involvement (kyivindependent.com/trumps-ukraine-rhetoric-shift-signals-reduced-us-involvement-polands-tusk-says/), Poland's Tusk says.
"Behind this surprising optimism lies a signal of reduced U.S. involvement and a shift of responsibility for ending the war to Europe," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.

⚡️Europe, NATO ready to shoot down Russian jets (kyivindependent.com/europe-nato-ready-to-shoot-down-russian-jets-bloomberg-reports/), Bloomberg reports.
European diplomats told Russian officials this week that NATO is prepared to respond in force to further airspace violations, including by shooting down Russian planes, Bloomberg reported Sept. 25.

⚡️Blackout at Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant enters (kyivindependent.com/blackout-at-russian-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-enters-3rd-day-after-grid-strike/) 3rd day after grid strike.
"This creates a critical situation that threatens the security of not only Ukraine but also European countries," Energoatom said.

⚡️ 'Next time, we may not be so lucky' — IAEA reports drone explosion (kyivindependent.com/iaea-reports-drone-explosion-near-south-ukraine-nuclear-plant/) near South Ukraine nuclear plant.
Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — SEP 26, 2025 (1/2) ■ Casualties stay below average despite an uptick in engagements ■ Equipment losses below average, but 7-day losses remain at record level
According to the IAEA team stationed at the facility, 22 drones were observed in the area between late Sept. 24 and the early hours of Sept. 25.

⚡️ Moscow envoy threatens war (kyivindependent.com/moscow-warns-with-war-if-nato-downs-russian-aircraft/) if NATO shoots down Russian aircraft.
NATO potentially shooting down a Russian plane in allied airspace "would be war," Russian Ambassador to France, Alexey Meshkov, said in an interview with RTL.

⚡️ Ukraine's DeepStrike campaign (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-fuel-crisis-significantly-cripples-military-logistics-ukraine-army-chief-says/) 'significantly' crippling Russian military logistics as fuel crisis worsens, Syrskyi says.
"The capabilities of the enemy's military-industrial complex have been significantly reduced; we can see this on the battlefield," Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said.

⚡️NATO, EU have 'declared war' (kyivindependent.com/nato-eu-have-declared-war-on-russia-through-ukraine-lavrov-claims/) on Russia through Ukraine, Lavrov claims.
Sergey Lavrov alleged that NATO and the EU had moved beyond indirect support and were now parties to the war.

⚡️US scrambles (kyivindependent.com/us-fighters-deployed-after-russian-warplanes-enter-international-airspace-near-alaska/) jets after Russian warplanes enter international airspace near Alaska.
NORAD dispatched an E-3, four F-16s, and four KC-135 tankers to track two Russian Tu-95 bombers and two Su-35 fighter jets

⚡️Merz calls on EU to use frozen Russian assets (kyivindependent.com/merz-calls-on-eu-to-use-frozen-russian-assets-for-ukraine-loan/) for Ukraine defense loan.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called on the EU to use frozen Russian assets to provide Ukraine with a $160 billion loan, saying he is "advocating the mobilization of financial resources on a scale that will secure Ukraine's military resilience for several years."

⚡️Hungarian fighter jets intercept (kyivindependent.com/hungarian-fighter-jets-intercept-5-russian-aircraft-over-baltic-sea/) 5 Russian aircraft over Baltic Sea.
The Russian aircraft — including three MiG-31s, a Su-30, and a Su-35 —flew over the Baltic Sea near Latvian airspace.

⚡️ Third suspicious drone incident (kyivindependent.com/denmark-shuts-aalborg-airspace-again-after-drone-incursion-police-says-havent-found-anything/) this week forces Denmark to close Aalborg airspace.
"We have thoroughly investigated the area, and we have not found anything," North Jutland Police Chief Christian Tilsted said.

⚡️Zelensky says (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signals-readiness-to-not-seek-second-presidential-term-hold-elections-during-ceasefire/) he won't seek re-election after war, will push for elections during potential ceasefire.
"It's not my goal — elections... My goal is to finish the war," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

⚡️Amid rising tensions, Poland urges citizens to 'immediately' leave (kyivindependent.com/amid-rising-tensions-poland-urges-citizens-to-immediately-leave-belarus/) Belarus.
Poland's Embassy in Minsk called on Polish citizens to "immediately leave" Belarus on Sept. 25, amid rising tensions stemming from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

⚡️ Russia's railways hit by second blast this month (kyivindependent.com/second-blast-in-weeks-hits-russias-pskov-railroad-tracks-trains-forced-to-detour/), trains in Pskov Oblast forced to detour.
The blast hit a section of the line between Luga and Pskov, used for both passenger and freight traffic.

⚡️Ukrainian drones strike (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-strike-afipsky-oil-refinery-in-russias-krasnodar-krai/) Afipsky Oil Refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai.
Ukrainian drones struck the Afipsky Oil Refinery in southwestern Russia overnight on Sept. 26, Russian authorities reported.

⚡️ Greece extradites (kyivindependent.com/greece-extradites-moldovas-once-most-powerful-oligarch-plahotniuc-to-chisinau/) Moldova's once most powerful oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc.
Vladimir Plahotniuc, once seen as the most powerful figure in Moldova, faces charges in three criminal cases, including his alleged role in the 2014 "theft of a billion dollars" from major banks.

⚡️India asks US to allow purchase (https://kyivindependent.com/india-asks-us-to-allow-purchase-of-iranian-oil-to-offset-russian-imports-bloomberg-reports/) of Iranian oil to offset Russian imports, Bloomberg reports.
Indian officials reiterated to Trump administration officials this week their position that New Delhi may curb Russian oil imports if trade is offset through the purchase of sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 25.

⚡️ 'Just shoot them' — Russian commander told troops to open fire (kyivindependent.com/russian-commander-told-troops-to-just-shoot-retreating-soldiers-intercept-suggests/) on retreating soldiers, intercepted comms suggest.
Ukraine's military intelligence said the recording captured a conversation in Donetsk Oblast in which the commander demanded that troops stand their ground at all costs.

⚡️Ukrainian military strikes 3 gas distribution stations (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-military-strikes-3-gas-distribution-stations-in-occupied-luhansk/) in occupied Luhansk.

⚡️ Ukraine's sea drones 'paralyze' (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-paralyzes-russias-key-black-sea-oil-terminals-with-drone-strikes-hur-source-claims/) Russian Black Sea oil hubs, HUR source says.
"Naval drones targeted key logistics facilities belonging to the aggressor state on the Black Sea coast," the source said.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — SEP 26, 2025 (1/2)
■ Casualties stay below average despite an uptick in engagements
■ Equipment losses below average, but 7-day losses remain at record level
■ Overnight attacks: all drones, decent interception rate
■ Fewer strikes on both sides; unusually few 🇺🇦 strikes reported, affecting ratio