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Ukraine Invasion: Part 58

1000 replies

MagicFox · 10/08/2025 12:16

We’re all still here for Thread 58. Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/09/2025 12:11

When you look at it, there was a credible threat of sanctions before the Alaska meeting, but those are completely off the table now - it's hard to believe the bi-partisan attempt to introduce them will get anywhere and Trump is using the excuse that all the EU should be using sanctions before the US does. He's not wrong there that all the EU should be, but it's not an excuse for the US to do nothing given the Budapest Memorandum.

Every time Trump starts to actually show any genuine signs of resistance to Putin, something happens and the resistance crumbles. I think Putin is carefully edging Trump away from any action at all and it might not be long before the delivery of Patriots etc dries up - specially as the US seems genuinely short.

I think Trump's making up as he goes along until he's had a conversation with someone else and then he blows their way.

On the Flemish radio from Northern Belgium this morning they were talking about Europe's preparedness to meet war from Russia or from China and they even added (for the firs time as far as I heard) 'or from America'. I don't think the threats over Greenland have been forgotten. I'm certain Putin is using Greenland to further alienate the EU and the US.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/09/2025 12:13

Hopefully I'm wrong ...

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/09/2025 12:25

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

'Ukraine is in a position to fight and win (kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukraine-is-in-a-position-to-fight-and-win-all-of-ukraine-back-trump-says-following-meeting-with-zelensky/) all of Ukraine back' — Trump says following meeting with Zelensky.
Trump expressed his view that Kyiv will retake territories occupied by Russia following a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the 80th United Nations General Assembly in New York on Sept. 23.

⚡️Trump's position on Russia-Ukraine land swaps has changed (kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukraine-is-in-a-position-to-fight-and-win-all-of-ukraine-back-trump-says-following-meeting-with-zelensky/), Zelensky says.
In an interview with Fox News following his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he believes Trump's position on swapping territories in exchange for peace has changed.

⚡️Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov arrives (kyivindependent.com/russian-foreign-minister-lavrov-arrives-in-new-york-for-un-general-assembly-state-media-reports/) in New York for UN General Assembly, state media reports.

⚡️ Trump's patience with Russia 'not infinite (kyivindependent.com/trumps-patience-with-russia-not-infinite-rubio-warns/),' Rubio warns as US sanctions loom.
"The president is a very patient man; he's very committed to peace, but his patience is not infinite," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.

⚡️Russia not close (kyivindependent.com/russia-not-close-to-encirclement-of-strategic-kharkiv-oblast-town-despite-claims-expert-says/) to encirclement of strategic Kharkiv Oblast town despite claims, expert says.
Victor Tregubov, spokesperson for Ukraine's Dnipro group of forces, also denied these claims, saying that Russia is trying to advance toward Kupiansk from the north.

⚡️Estonia ready (kyivindependent.com/estonia-ready-to-down-russian-aircraft-after-airspace-violation-foreign-minister-says/) to down Russian aircraft if necessary, foreign minister says.

⚡️Trump says (kyivindependent.com/trump-says-nato-should-shoot-down-russian-aircraft-violating-allied-airspace/) NATO should down Russian aircraft violating allied airspace.
Asked whether NATO allies should fire on Russian planes entering their territory, U.S. President Donald Trump replied: "Yes, I do."

⚡️ 'Roger that' — Poland, Estonia welcome Trump's calls (kyivindependent.com/poland-estonia-react-to-trumps-calls-to-shoot-down-russian-fighter-jets/) to shoot down Russian jets.

'Suicides and suffocation' — Russia sends troops into gas pipelines to bypass Ukrainian defenses
(kyivindependent.com/deadly-but-effective-why-russia-sends-soldiers-to-gas-pipeline-tunnels-in-ukraine/)
A recent Russian assault in the embattled city of Kupiansk has once again thrust an uncommon, but often highly-effective tactic into the spotlight — using underground pipes to penetrate Ukrainian defensive lines.
Russian units attempting to move across the Oskil River used a gas pipeline, monitoring group DeepState reported on Sept. 12, with soldiers using specially designed wheeled benches and electric scooters to maneuver.

⚡️Trump says (kyivindependent.com/theyre-funding-the-war-against-themselves-trump-slams-nato-eu-states-for-buying-russian-oil/) he'll meet EU officials to discuss halting Russian energy imports.
"Europe has to step it up. They can't be doing what they're doing. They're buying oil and gas from Russia while they're fighting Russia," U.S. President Donald Trump told world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly.

⚡️ IMF convinces Ukraine to hike its funding needs projection (kyivindependent.com/imf-convinces-ukraine-to-hike-its-funding-needs-projection-bloomberg-reports/), Bloomberg reports.
The IMF reportedly persuaded Ukraine to raise its initial $38 billion estimate to $65 billion after a protracted disagreement on the issue.

⚡️Poland lifts (kyivindependent.com/poland-lifts-border-closure-with-belarus-imposed-during-russian-belarusian-drills/) border closure with Belarus imposed during Russian-Belarusian drills.
Poland will reopen all border crossings with Belarus at midnight on Sept. 24, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced at the start of a government meeting, Polsat News reported on Sept. 23.
The decision comes nearly two weeks after Warsaw shut road and rail crossings on Sept. 12, ahead of the Russian-Belarusian military exercises Zapad-2025.

⚡️Russian gas processing plant stops production (kyivindependent.com/russian-gas-processing-plant-stops-production-following-drone-attack-reuters-reports/) following drone attack, Reuters reports.
The Astrakhan gas processing plant in southern Russia has stopped production following a fire at the facility caused by a drone attack, Reuters reported on Sept. 23, citing three industry sources.

⚡️ Update: Ukraine strikes Russian petrochemical plant in Bashkortostan for second time in a week, SBU source confirms (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drone-strike-sets-fire-to-bashkortostans-gazprom-plant-russia-claims/).
A fire broke out at the plant following several drone strikes, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) source told the Kyiv Independent.

⚡️Ukrainian drone attacks (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drone-attack-on-oil-refineries-drop-russian-diesel-exports-to-5-year-low-ft-reports/) on oil refineries drop Russian diesel exports to 5-year low, FT reports.
Ukraine's ongoing drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have led Russian diesel exports to drop to levels not seen since 2020, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Sept. 23.

⚡️'Everything could be shut down' — Zelensky calls for joint Western air defense system to down (kyivindependent.com/everything-could-be-shut-down-zelensky-calls-for/) Russian missiles, drones over Ukraine.

⚡️ Russia's Finance Ministry proposes value-added tax hike (kyivindependent.com/russias-finance-ministry-proposes-value-added-tax-hike-as-economic-pressure-mounts/) to boost war-strained budget.
The tax increase, part of the draft budget submitted to the Russian government, is aimed "primarily at funding defense and security needs," the Russian Finance Ministry said.

⚡️ Ukraine hacks Crimea proxy head (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hacks-crimea-proxy-uncovers-child-abduction-files/), uncovers child abduction files, intelligence source says.
The breach allegedly exposed official correspondence of the head of Russian occupation authorities in Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, as well as internal documents and communications between occupation ministries and services.

⚡️Lviv mayor says he found bug (kyivindependent.com/lviv-mayor-finds-bug-in-office/) in office after meetings with top Ukrainian officials.
Lviv Mayor Andrii Sadovyi said on Sept. 17 that a bug had been discovered inside one of the phones on his desk, specifically in the phone’s charging stand, which also served as a holder.

⚡️ Estonia open to hosting UK's nuclear-capable F-35 jets, minister says (kyivindependent.com/estonia-open-to-host-uks-nuclear-capable-f-35s/) after Russian incursion.

⚡️ Update: Denmark doesn’t rule out (kyivindependent.com/denmarks-copenhagen-airport-shut-down-after-drone-sightings/) Russian involvement in suspicious drone sightings.
"We have seen drones over Poland that should not have been there. We have seen activity in Romania. We have seen violations of Estonian airspace."

⚡️ 'Random phrase generator' — Trump remarks on Ukraine spark backlash in Russia. (kyivindependent.com/trump-remarks-on-ukraine-spark-russian-backlash/)
Russian officials sought to downplay Trump's remarks while mocking the U.S. leader.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov brushed off the comments, adding that the shift followed Trump's talks with Zelensky and was driven by "business interests."

⚡️ Kursk operation cost was 'too high' (https://kyivindependent.com/kursk-operation-cost-for-ukraine-was-too-high-ex-military-chief-zaluzhnyi-says/) for Ukraine, ex-military chief Zaluzhnyi says.
"I don't know the cost of such actions, but it is clear that it was too high," said Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former commander-in-chief.

Is NATO already at war with Russia? It depends who you ask
(kyivindependent.com/is-nato-already-at-war-with-russia-it-depends-who-you-ask/)
Russia has been waging a hybrid war against the West for decades — cyber attacks, sabotage, disinformation campaigns, and even placing bombs on cargo planes are all hallmarks of the Kremlin's persistent attempts to undermine NATO unity without triggering an all-out war.
Recent brazen Russian violations of NATO airspace, including the "unprecedented" drone attack on Poland, are a clear escalation by Moscow, which prompted the triggering of NATO's Article 4 on two occasions but stopped short of setting in motion Article 5, the alliance's collective defense clause.
But while NATO and Europe respond to these threats under the threshold of outright war, Russia sees things very differently.

'We'll leave you to rot' — UN report details horrific torture of Ukrainian civilians in Russian captivity
(kyivindependent.com/un-report-details-horrific-torture-of-ukrainian-civilians-in-russian-captivity/)
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published a report on Sept. 23 detailing the vast scale of torture committed by Russian forces on Ukrainian civilians held in captivity in occupied territories.
Between June 1, 2023, and Sept. 10, 2025, OHCHR documented 508 cases of civilian detainees, including 392 men, 103 women, three girls, and nine boys. These include individuals of all age groups, from adolescents to older adults, as well as 15 persons with disabilities.

⚡️ Russian troops shoot family, use underage girl as human shield in eastern Ukraine, military says. (kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-shoot-family-take-young-girl-hostage-in-eastern-ukraine-military-says/)

A Russian unit broke into a house and killed the girl's parents before abducting her, Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps reported on Sept. 24.

⚡️ Russian attacks kill 7, injure 41 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-in-ukraine-6/) in Ukraine over past day.
Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 126 of the 152 Shahed-type drones and decoy drones launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported. Twenty-six drones hit seven different locations.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — SEP 24, 2025
■ Engagements and casualties slightly below average
■ 7-day equipment losses at a record level; solid land-based losses and 2 additional aircraft reported
■ Visually confirmed: 37 🇷🇺 : 44 🇺🇦 — 30-day ratio at 1.0x
■ Overnight attacks: all drones, decent interception rate
■ Fewer strikes on both sides; strike ratio could be better

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/09/2025 12:32

Jesus, to go into civilians' houses, kill the parents and hold the young girl up in front of the Russian troops to stop the Ukrainians firing ... [vomit]

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/09/2025 12:37

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The last high-voltage power line supplying the Zaporizhzhia NPP has been disconnected, according to the occupation-appointed “management” of the station.
“Currently, the station’s own power, necessary for safety, is being supplied by backup diesel generators. All of them have been started up and are operating normally,” the statement said.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy confirmed that the disconnection occurred at 4:56 p.m. and that the plant switched to diesel generator power. The ministry stressed this is a serious violation of the station’s normal operating conditions.

⚡️“I think Orbán will stop buying Russian oil if I talk to him. I will talk to him,” Trump said.

Ukraine is now very successful in stopping a powerful Russian army. We have great respect for the fight that Ukraine is waging. It is simply amazing, — US President Trump at a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.

Trump said that his relationship with Putin, which he had hoped would help end the war, “unfortunately meant nothing” during a meeting with Macron.

The Kremlin responded to Trump, claiming the Russian economy is “stable” and again insisting Putin is supposedly ready to meet with Zelenskyy.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s key statements:
▫️ Russia is not a tiger, but a bear — and there are no paper bears.
▫️ The Russian economy remains stable despite sanctions and “global economic turmoil.”
▫️ All frontline needs are “more than covered.”
▫️ A phone call between Putin and Trump is not planned but can be quickly arranged.
▫️ Putin is ready to meet with Zelenskyy, but without preparation it would be a PR stunt doomed to failure.
▫️ Ukraine is proposing unacceptable meeting locations, such as Switzerland and Austria.
▫️ Kyiv has shown no willingness to create working groups for negotiations.
▫️ Current frontline dynamics mean that those unwilling to negotiate now will be in a worse position later.
▫️ Dialogue channels remain open, including with the Americans.
▫️ Any talk of European security without Russia is unfounded.

Three West African countries, known for theoir cooperation with Russia, have withdrawn from the ICC — Reuters
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, all ruled by military regimes, announced their withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, calling it an "instrument of neo-colonial repression."
In a joint statement, the countries accused the ICC of failing to prosecute proven war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide.
The ICC has been investigating crimes in Mali since 2013, particularly in the regions of Gao, Timbuktu, and Kidal. Meanwhile, the three countries are stepping up cooperation with Russia.
All three states are fighting Islamist groups, which repeatedly attacked military facilities in 2025. The UN reported on the alleged massacre of civilians by the Malian military.

President Zelenskyy answered media questions after meeting with President Trump. Key points:
• Trump realized Putin gave him false information about the battlefield and now trusts Zelenskyy more.
• Putin will look for weaknesses in Europe and NATO, using various long-range drones to test readiness.
• On Slovakia and Hungary buying Russian gas and oil: “Slovakia is ready to seek alternatives, but Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán is not. That’s a mistake.”
• China shows no desire to end the war; motives are unclear, whether economic or historical.
• Trump will provide Ukraine with security guarantees after the war ends.

President Zelenskyy said that he and President Trump discussed several promising ideas to bring peace closer, and he hopes they will yield quick results.

Europe will phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced after meeting with President Trump.

Our military has liberated 360 sq. km of territory in recent months, thanks to the PURL program and US support, — President Zelenskyy at a joint press conference with US President Trump.

🤡 Drone incident in Denmark: the Kremlin dismissed Copenhagen’s accusations of Russian involvement as “unfounded.”

❗️Ukraine is launching a mechanism to track children deported by Russia, President Zelenskyy said at a meeting of the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian Children.
“Russia is hiding the truth, so this work is crucial. It involves funding, searching, verifying information, and ensuring accountability for those responsible,” he noted.

Sweden will shoot down Russian aircraft that violate its airspace, Defence Minister Pål Jonson said, responding to questions about Russian provocations on NATO’s eastern flank, notably in Poland and Estonia, Aftonbladet reported.

The UK has declared its readiness to shoot down Russian aircraft if they violate NATO airspace.

On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Trump said that in seven months he ended seven “endless wars,” some lasting 31, 36, and 28 years.
He named the conflicts: Cambodia–Thailand, Kosovo–Serbia, Congo–Rwanda, Pakistan–India, Israel–Iran, Egypt–Ethiopia, and Armenia–Azerbaijan.

🍿 HBO Max Launches in Ukraine
The streaming platform, featuring content from HBO, Warner Bros., DC, Discovery, and more, is now available with Ukrainian localization.

President Zelenskyy met for the first time with the Hereditary Prince of Liechtenstein, Alois. They discussed humanitarian aid to Ukraine and threats from the Russian Federation.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/09/2025 12:45

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The Lithuanian Seimas has given the green light for its military to act faster and strike harder against drones violating national airspace, allowing troops to immediately neutralize aerial threats.

Trump used his UN address to excoriate European allies (www.kyivpost.com/post/60718) for their “embarrassing” hypocrisy over Russia, calling out major energy buyers like China, India, and Turkey for fueling the war.

Ukraine’s intelligence service has once again breached the servers of Russia’s occupation authorities in Crimea — Kyiv Post sources
Ukrainian cyber experts gained full access to all computers and servers, extracting over 100 terabytes of intelligence data.
Among the files: damning documents detailing the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

Zelensky, top European diplomats, and US Secretary of State Rubio unite at a high-level UN Security Council meeting (www.kyivpost.com/post/60729) to call for collective pressure on Moscow to pursue peace.

Ukraine’s biggest volunteer army: In an exclusive interview with Kyiv Post, Dmytro Ivanov, head of Dobrobat, reveals how over 50,000 volunteers from 28 countries are helping rebild Ukraine’s shattered cities.

Another UN report reveals “widespread and systematic” torture and sexual violence (www.kyivpost.com/post/60705) by Russia against Ukrainian detainees.

Melania Trump is launching a global coalition to support children’s tech education. (www.kyivpost.com/post/60722)
The US First Lady said she is establishing the initiative to “ensure that every child can flourish in the digital era.”

Zelensky, don’t forget about your democratic (www.kyivpost.com/opinion/60708) Belarusian and other allies.
It’s time for the Ukrainian president to act as the leader and champion of other countries seeking to free themselves from Russian imperialistic pressure.

Hundreds of Ukrainian defense firms focus on winning the war, not profits. After Russia’s defeat, many may shrink, but export limits will make them leave the country or evaporate, co-founder of MITS Capital Perry Boyle told Kyiv Post. (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/60553)

Russia killed 7,000 people a week for nothing. Very sad situation — Trump

Google Maps updates show what’s left of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol after Russian occupation.
Entire neighborhoods are gone. Schools have disappeared. Streets once full of life now lie in ruins or are buried under rubble. A city that once housed hundreds of thousands is now a shattered ghost of what it once was.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/09/2025 12:48

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇦🇺🇸 Ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York, President Zelensky met with U.S. Special Presidential Envoy Keith Kellogg.
The Ukrainian president briefed him on the situation at the front and the results of the Armed Forces’ counteroffensive near Dobropillia and Pokrovsk.
They also discussed the development of U.S.-Ukraine cooperation, including mutually beneficial agreements on drones and the purchase of American weapons that Ukraine has proposed to Washington.

🇨🇳 A Chinese vessel has been docking in the occupied port of Sevastopol, the Financial Times reports, citing comments from the Ukrainian president’s office.
According to Ukrainian officials, the container ship Heng Yang 9, sailing under a Panamanian flag, has moored in Crimea at least three times over the past few months.
The FT was able to independently confirm the most recent visit in September. An aerial photograph taken in Sevastopol on September 14 matches images of the Heng Yang 9 three days later as it passed through Istanbul, with containers arranged in the same sequence as during its Bosphorus transit.
Ukraine’s embassy in China has already raised the matter with the Chinese foreign ministry. In response, Beijing said it advises its citizens and companies to avoid contact with occupied Ukrainian territories, adding that each case will be reviewed individually and “appropriate measures” taken.
▪️ The use of Sevastopol has been prohibited under Western sanctions since 2014, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. While China has not joined the sanctions regime against Russia, its commercial vessels have until now avoided ports under Russian control.

❗️Ukraine has so far managed to bring back 1,625 children abducted by Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
He also recalled that during talks in Turkey, the Ukrainian delegation handed Russia a list with the names of 339 kidnapped children, but has yet to receive any response or information about them.

The woman who was injured in the September 7 strike on Kyiv has died in hospital.
Doctors diagnosed her with blast trauma and burns covering 95% of her body. She had been on mechanical ventilation. At the time of the attack, she was pregnant, and doctors had to deliver her baby prematurely.
Her husband, who sustained burns to 70% of his body, has been transferred to a burn unit after his condition improved. Their newborn son remained on mechanical ventilation as of September 17.
She became the fourth victim of the attack — alongside a man and a mother with her infant child.

Natsku · 24/09/2025 15:02

Sweden will shoot down Russian aircraft that violate its airspace, Defence Minister Pål Jonson said, responding to questions about Russian provocations on NATO’s eastern flank, notably in Poland and Estonia, Aftonbladet reported.
The UK has declared its readiness to shoot down Russian aircraft if they violate NATO airspace.

Do you really think they will?

notimagain · 24/09/2025 16:09

Natsku · 24/09/2025 15:02

Sweden will shoot down Russian aircraft that violate its airspace, Defence Minister Pål Jonson said, responding to questions about Russian provocations on NATO’s eastern flank, notably in Poland and Estonia, Aftonbladet reported.
The UK has declared its readiness to shoot down Russian aircraft if they violate NATO airspace.

Do you really think they will?

Depends.......

The Rules of Engagement for these situations are ultimately agreed by politicians, and are usually kept under wraps, "need to know" etc so it's anyone's guess.

If it's a clear cut case of something definitely, 100% military, crossing into sovereign airspace and continuing deep inside, possible with looking like it has hostile intent then the rules might allow opening fire without too much discussion between the shooters and those that issue the orders.

If it's something not solidly identified as military, just possibly clipping in and out of sovereign airpsace (as happened with Estonia the other day) then it gets messy....

Natsku · 24/09/2025 16:24

notimagain · 24/09/2025 16:09

Depends.......

The Rules of Engagement for these situations are ultimately agreed by politicians, and are usually kept under wraps, "need to know" etc so it's anyone's guess.

If it's a clear cut case of something definitely, 100% military, crossing into sovereign airspace and continuing deep inside, possible with looking like it has hostile intent then the rules might allow opening fire without too much discussion between the shooters and those that issue the orders.

If it's something not solidly identified as military, just possibly clipping in and out of sovereign airpsace (as happened with Estonia the other day) then it gets messy....

It mostly is just clipping in and out of airspace, so I suppose it would be very hard for anyone to decide that, until Russia starts pushing the boundary far enough to make it really obvious. Glad I don't have to make such decisions!

notimagain · 24/09/2025 16:36

Natsku · 24/09/2025 16:24

It mostly is just clipping in and out of airspace, so I suppose it would be very hard for anyone to decide that, until Russia starts pushing the boundary far enough to make it really obvious. Glad I don't have to make such decisions!

I understand why the politicians are talking tough but they are in danger of making themselves hostages to fortune with some of what they are saying.

The last thing the west needs is to be fooled into shooting down an airliner so I suspect the Rules of Engagement (ROE) rightly will be very tight, especially for some blocks of airspace where there's potentially a mix of civilian and military traffic.

Tight ROE means there could well lots of constraints on the air defenders, lots of boxes that might need ticking before an engagement can be authorised, and that's something that Putin might use to his advantage.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/09/2025 16:38

Tight ROE means there could well lots of constraints on the air defenders, lots of boxes that might need ticking before an engagement can be authorised, and that's something that Putin might use to his advantage.

Yeah.

MissConductUS · 24/09/2025 17:53

notimagain · 24/09/2025 16:36

I understand why the politicians are talking tough but they are in danger of making themselves hostages to fortune with some of what they are saying.

The last thing the west needs is to be fooled into shooting down an airliner so I suspect the Rules of Engagement (ROE) rightly will be very tight, especially for some blocks of airspace where there's potentially a mix of civilian and military traffic.

Tight ROE means there could well lots of constraints on the air defenders, lots of boxes that might need ticking before an engagement can be authorised, and that's something that Putin might use to his advantage.

The Russians will exploit any uncertainties, any opportunities to skirt what they think the RoEs are going to be.

I know that there is currently some AWACS coverage of NATO's eastern flank. If they can make it continuous, NATO can track points or direction of origin for possible intruders and get a very good handle on aircraft type based on speed, flight profile and radar returns. @notimagain, do you know if NATO has sufficient AWACS availability to do this?

MissConductUS · 24/09/2025 18:17

Here's the WSJ's take on the latest shift in attitude by Trump.

How Zelensky’s Charm Offensive Reversed Trump’s Skepticism on Ukraine - Ukraine’s president has worked hard to repair damage of disastrous White House meeting in February

The most significant thing Trump said over the weekend was that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft that violates their sovereign airspace. There was no ambiguity at all.

notimagain · 24/09/2025 18:27

Really don't know how much AWACS or similar is available ATM, but I'd be surprised if NATO Europe has enough to give anything like 24/7 coverage of any likely incursion spots, even if they can, possibly not for an extended period

You're right that AWACS type platforms can tell you a lot, but of course the $64,000 dollar question, that won't get answered on a public forum, is can they alone provide enough information to justify an engagement under peacetime or very close to peacetime ROE??

MissConductUS · 24/09/2025 19:24

notimagain · 24/09/2025 18:27

Really don't know how much AWACS or similar is available ATM, but I'd be surprised if NATO Europe has enough to give anything like 24/7 coverage of any likely incursion spots, even if they can, possibly not for an extended period

You're right that AWACS type platforms can tell you a lot, but of course the $64,000 dollar question, that won't get answered on a public forum, is can they alone provide enough information to justify an engagement under peacetime or very close to peacetime ROE??

That ambiguity about both the ROE and what intel the AWACS are collecting works against the Russians, in that they have to assume the worst case. These aircraft also collect a lot of signals intelligence that could support a decision to engage, assuming the Russians haven't gone full EMCON.

notimagain · 24/09/2025 20:08

@MissConductUS

Agree on both points...

Igotjelly · 24/09/2025 23:38

More drones closing airports in Denmark. Loots like @notimagain might be right and it might be New Jersey drones 2.0

notimagain · 25/09/2025 07:00

Groan......(good morning).

Funnily enough according to at least one source at least some of the lights assumed to be a drone at Copenhagen earlier in the week have been matched (using video and data from one of the tracking sites) with those of a small training aircraft that in the vicinity of the airport at the time.......

www.dronemag.no/dansk-droneobservasjon-kan-ha-vaert-skolefly/

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/09/2025 09:34

I think that the point here is that there's going to be amateur drone operators / mistakes / cockup rather than malice going on with some of these airport problems.

But there is also a very real and believable possibility that it's Russian hostile action, and that's the real problem.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/09/2025 09:36

For instance, the ISW - which is not 100% correct but normally is, and is also somewhat cautious, have said this today:

Russian jamming originating from Kaliningrad Oblast likely disrupted the GPS on Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles’ plane flying to Lithuania on September 24.

Ok that's jamming not drones. But air-related hostile actions are taking place and have been for quite some time (tiny bombs in cargo planes etc)

notimagain · 25/09/2025 09:54

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/09/2025 09:36

For instance, the ISW - which is not 100% correct but normally is, and is also somewhat cautious, have said this today:

Russian jamming originating from Kaliningrad Oblast likely disrupted the GPS on Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles’ plane flying to Lithuania on September 24.

Ok that's jamming not drones. But air-related hostile actions are taking place and have been for quite some time (tiny bombs in cargo planes etc)

Edited

Agree with you regard the drones, that looks to have at least some credibility, but I'm afraid the story about the Spanish Defence Minister's flight looks like the same old story, i.e.:

Politician's aircraft flies in area subject to what is these days is illegal but routine GPS disruption/denial - "hold the front page, there's been an attack.."

You, I or anyone else fly through a similar area and on-one notices.

notimagain · 25/09/2025 10:42

Ref GPS jamming/disturbance/denial the following link might help with context:

gpsjam.org/

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/09/2025 10:47

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Zelensky discusses Russian airspace provocations with Macron, Rutte (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-discusses-russian-airspace-provocations-with-macron-rutte-at-un/) at UN.
Zelensky said Russia's incursions in Poland, Romania, and Estonia were "not mistakes, but targeted actions."
The leaders also discussed sanctions against Russia, air defenses for Ukraine, and expanding the NATO program to buy U.S. arms for Kyiv.

⚡️Ukraine battlefield (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-battlefield-briefings-may-have-shifted-trumps-view-of-russias-war-wsj-reports/) briefings may have shifted Trump's view of Russia's war, WSJ reports.
U.S. officials reportedly briefed Trump about current battlefield conditions and a planned Ukrainian offensive that would require American intelligence support.

⚡️ Russian fuel crisis escalates as half of gas stations (kyivindependent.com/half-of-gas-stations-in-crimea-halt-gasoline-sales-amid-supply-crisis/) in occupied Crimea halt gasoline sales.
The disruption follows a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries in August, which have strained supplies and forced Moscow to cut exports.

⚡️ 'How well they burn' — Ukraine destroys 2 Russian An-26 transport aircraft, radar stations (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-destroys-2-russian-transport-aircraft-radar-stations-in-crimea/) in occupied Crimea, HUR says.
The strike was part of ongoing efforts to destroy high-value Russian assets on the peninsula, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said.

⚡️ Spanish defense minister's plane hit by GPS disturbance (kyivindependent.com/spanish-defense-ministers-plane-hit-by-gps-near-russias-kaliningrad-exclave/) near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave.
The A330 aircraft was traveling to Lithuania's Siauliai air base, reportedly also carrying relatives of Spanish air force personnel deployed as part of a NATO air policing mission. [although the last report like this turned out to be a false alarm]

⚡️Denmark shuts down airport over suspicious drone sightings (kyivindependent.com/denmark-shuts-down-airport-over-suspicious-drone-sightings-for-2nd-time-this-week/) for 2nd time this week.
"If we get the opportunity, we will take down the drones," Danish Police Inspector Jesper Bojgaard Madsen said. The incident comes two days after suspicious drone activity shut down Cophenhagen Airport on Sept. 22.

⚡️Rubio meets with Lavrov at UN General Assembly, urges (kyivindependent.com/rubio-meets-with-lavrov-at-un-general-assembly-urges-russia-to-halt-the-bloodshed-in-ukraine/) Russia to halt the bloodshed in Ukraine.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to stop “the killing” and pursue peaceful negotiations with Ukraine, the Department of State reported on Sept. 24.

⚡️Trump 'growing incredibly impatient' (kyivindependent.com/trump-growing-incredibly-impatient-with-russia-vance-says-as-moscow-refuses-to-end-fighting/) with Russia, Vance says as Moscow refuses to end fighting.
U.S. President Donald Trump is growing impatient with Russia as the Kremlin refuses to work towards a peace deal, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on Sept. 24.

⚡️Ukraine and Syria officially re-establish diplomatic relations (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-and-syria-officially-re-establish-diplomatic-relations-after-leaders-meet-at-un/) after leaders meet at UN.
Ukraine and Syria formally restored diplomatic relations, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Sept. 25 after meeting his Syrian counterpart Ahmed al-Sharaa at the U.N. General Assembly.

⚡️ Russia moves toward year-round military conscription (kyivindependent.com/russia-moves-to-year-round-conscription-under-new-bill/) under new bill.
While conscripts are officially barred from being deployed abroad, reports indicate that many are pressured into signing contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry and sent to fight in Ukraine.

⚡️'Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova too,' Zelensky warns (kyivindependent.com/europe-cannot-afford-to-lose-moldova-too-zelensky-warns-amid-rising-russian-influence/) amid rising Russian influence.
"Georgia is dependent on Russia, and for many, many years, Belarus has been moving toward dependence on Russia," Volodymyr Zelensky said. "Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova too."

⚡️ Major Russian chemical plant reportedly halts operations (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-reportedly-ignite-fire-at-major-russian-defense-linked-plant/) after Ukrainian drone attack.
EuroChem-Belorechensk specializes in nitrogen and complex fertilizers but also produces phosphorus-based products and sulfuric acid, a key component in ammunition manufacturing.

⚡️ Russia strikes Ukrainian training ground (kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-ukrainian-training-ground-with-iskander-missiles-causing-casualties/) with Iskander missiles, casualties reported.
Despite security precautions, a direct hit against a shelter made it impossible to fully prevent casualties, according to the military.

⚡️Ukraine hits (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-oil-facilities-drone-production-site-in-russia-general-staff-confirms/) oil facilities, drone production site in Russia, General Staff confirms.
One of the largest oil refineries in Russia, the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat petrochemical plant in the Republic of Bashkortostan, came under Ukrainian attack overnight on Sept. 24.

⚡️ Ukraine reportedly strikes (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-russian-novorossiysk-port-city-damages-oil-pipeline-operator-office/) Russian Novorossiysk port city, damages oil pipeline operator office.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium confirmed that its office in the city was damaged.

⚡️Ex-Prosecutor General Krasnov appointed (https://kyivindependent.com/ex-prosecutor-general-krasnov-appointed-head-of-russias-supreme-court/) head of Russia’s Supreme Court.
Igor Krasnov, ex-prosecutor general known for his pivotal role in the Kremlin's crackdown on dissent, was the sole candidate for the role.

⚡️Cyberattack suspect arrested (kyivindependent.com/cyberattack-suspect-arrested-after-major-disruption-at-european-airports/) after major disruption at European airports.
The cyberattack disrupted automated check-in systems caused flight cancellations and delays at several major European airports.

New Ukrainian bill sparks fears of censorship among journalists as parliament denies risks
(kyivindependent.com/new-ukrainian-bill-sparks-fears-of-censorship-among-journalists-as-parliament-denies-risks/)
Ukrainian journalists and media experts sounded the alarm over a new legislative proposal they believe could open the door to censorship.
A bill initiated by lawmakers from President Volodymyr Zelensky's party and those from the opposition was registered in parliament on Sept. 21. In short, it proposes changes to Ukraine's Civil Code.
Although the bill is framed as a move to strengthen human rights, media experts argue that it could actually have the opposite result for Ukraine's media.

⚡️Ukraine shoots down Russian Su-34 bomber (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-su-34-bomber-over-zaporizhzhia-oblast-air-force-says/) over Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Air Force says.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 2h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — SEP 25, 2025 (1/2)
■ Engagements and casualties below average
■ Equipment losses remain above average; 7-day losses at a record level; 1 additional aircraft reported lost
■ Overnight attacks: all drones, decent interception rate
■ Strikes on both sides below average; strike ratio could be better

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social)

My day job involves making sense of data. In my spare time, I apply these skills to Ukraine's fight for freedom.

https://bsky.app/profile/ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/09/2025 10:49

notimagain · 25/09/2025 10:42

Ref GPS jamming/disturbance/denial the following link might help with context:

gpsjam.org/

What the hell is going on in Turkiye? Too close to the war zone? How is Turkiye handling it?

And why the scattering in Siberia ?

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