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Ukraine Invasion: Part 58

1000 replies

MagicFox · 10/08/2025 12:16

We’re all still here for Thread 58. Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

OP posts:
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heldinadream · 20/08/2025 09:43

jasflowers · 20/08/2025 09:15

If Russia wants to kill Zelenskyy, which they do, the Vatican will not have the security required

Zelenskyy has to be extremely careful, as i'm sure he will be, Trump is wanting the meeting without him....thats a worry.

Europe (coalition of the willing) would have to stump up top notch security, it shouldn't be incumbent on whoever hosts.
Good point. So much to consider.
If they manage to kill Zelenskyy that'll be WW3 kicking off unless some miracle happens.

Igotjelly · 20/08/2025 10:59

Its easy to forget that the delegations were poisoned at the start of the diplomatic process all those years ago!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/08/2025 12:33

jasflowers · 20/08/2025 09:15

If Russia wants to kill Zelenskyy, which they do, the Vatican will not have the security required

Zelenskyy has to be extremely careful, as i'm sure he will be, Trump is wanting the meeting without him....thats a worry.

I think the Vatican security is pretty good - there have been a number of attacks on Popes !

jasflowers · 20/08/2025 12:43

heldinadream · 20/08/2025 09:43

Europe (coalition of the willing) would have to stump up top notch security, it shouldn't be incumbent on whoever hosts.
Good point. So much to consider.
If they manage to kill Zelenskyy that'll be WW3 kicking off unless some miracle happens.

Russia would deny & Trump would agree with Putin, doubtless saying the Ukrainians did it themselves.

Anyway, there wont be a meeting, this will end with Putin blaming collapse of talks on EU/Ukraine and Trump will agree with the Russians.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/08/2025 12:43

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ India resumes Russian oil imports (https://kyivindependent.com/india-resumes-russian-oil-imports-despite-us-tariffs-bloomberg-reports/) despite US tariffs, Bloomberg reports.
Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. bought several shipments of Russian Urals crude in recent days, with deliveries expected in September and October.

⚡️US troops won't be sent (https://kyivindependent.com/us-troops-wont-be-to-ukraine-as-part-of-security-guarantees-trump-says/) to Ukraine as part of security guarantees, Trump says

⚡️Switzerland ready to give Putin immunity (https://kyivindependent.com/switzerland-ready-to-give-putin-immunity-for-peace-talks/) for peace talks.
Switzerland is prepared to grant Russian President Vladimir Putin immunity from arrest if he travels to Geneva for peace negotiations, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said in an interview on Aug. 19.

⚡️ Rutte, Erdogan discuss Ukraine peace process (https://kyivindependent.com/rutte-erdogan-discuss-ukraine-peace-process-black-sea-security/), Black Sea security.
"The call addressed the latest developments concerning the peace process between Ukraine and Russia," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's office reported.

⚡️Around 10 European allies willing to send troops (https://kyivindependent.com/10-european-allies-willing-to-send-troops-to-ukraine-talks-accelerate-on-security-guarantees-bloomberg-reports/) to Ukraine, talks accelerate on security guarantees, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️ US may provide air support for Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/us-may-provide-air-support-for-ukraine-under-peace-deal-trump-says/) under peace deal, Trump says.

⚡️Starmer says 'premature (https://kyivindependent.com/us-troops-wont-be-to-ukraine-as-part-of-security-guarantees-trump-says/)' to determine whether U.K. troops will be sent to Ukraine, Sky News reports.

⚡️Trump raises topic of Ukraine's EU membership with Orban (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-raises-topic-of-ukraines-eu-membership-with-orban-bloomberg-reports/), Bloomberg reports.
According to sources cited by Bloomberg, European leaders urged U.S. President Donald Trump to pressure Orban into dropping his opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession talks.

Security guarantees for Ukraine explained: What's on the table and what's realistic? (https://kyivindependent.com/security-guarantees-on-the-table-range-from-genuine-to-meaningless-but-russia-unlikely-to-accept-the-most-effective/)

⚡️ Ukrainian drones destroy 2 Russian ammo depots (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-destroy-2-russian-ammo-depots-in-luhansk-oblast-sbu-says/) in Luhansk Oblast, Security Service says.
The strikes hit warehouses in the village of Bilokurakyne, located on a key railway line supplying Russian forces on the Pokrovsk front, where Moscow is focusing its primary offensive efforts.

⚡️ Russian oil supplies to EU resume (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-druzhba-oil-pipeline-resumes-after-ukrainian-strike-hungary-says/) after Ukrainian drone strike, Hungary says.
"We expect that Ukraine will not launch new attacks on the pipeline, which is critical to our country's energy supply," Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said.

⚡️Russia resumes stolen grain shipments (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-resumes-stolen-grain-shipments-from-occupied-ukraine-to-syria/) from occupied Ukrainian territories to Syria.
Russia has resumed grain shipments to Syria from within occupied Crimea, transporting stolen grain from Ukraine's occupied territories, reported Kateryna Yaresko, a journalist with the Ukrainian SeaKrime project that tracks Russia's illegal shipping activity.

⚡️ Ukraine repatriates 1,000 bodies (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-repatriates-1-000-bodies-of-fallen-citizens-from-russia/) of fallen soldiers from Russia.

⚡️'I want to try to get to heaven (https://kyivindependent.com/i-want-to-try-to-get-to-heaven-trump-cites-divine-motivation-for-ukraine-peace/),' Trump cites divine motivation for Ukraine peace.
"If I can save 7,000 people a week from being killed, I think that's a pretty... I want to try to get to heaven if possible, I'm hearing that I'm not doing well," Trump said on Aug. 19. [I assume this is a joke!]

⚡️ Russian strikes killed 21, injured 99 in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-strikes-killed-21-injured-99-across-ukraine-since-trump-putin-summit/) since Trump-Putin summit.
Five people were killed and 11 injured on Aug. 17, followed by eight killed and 35 injured on Aug. 18, and at least eight killed and 53 injured on Aug. 19.

⚡️Russian drone strike (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-strike-on-sumy-injures-12-including-children/) on Ukraine's Sumy Oblast injures 14 , including children.

⚡️ Russian attacks kill 3, injure 34 in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/3-killed-34-injured-in-russian-attacks-on-ukraine-over-past-day/) over past day.
According to Ukraine's Air Force, Russian forces launched 93 Shahed-type attack and decoy drones, along with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, overnight.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 3h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — AUG 20, 2025
■ Engagements remain above average; casualties near average
■ Equipment losses stay well above average, including the interception of 7 missiles
■ Fewer aerial attacks; interception rate & strike ratio near average

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/08/2025 12:47

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️European leaders at the White House meeting accepted the need for territorial concessions from Ukraine — Trump
“France, Germany, and the United Kingdom want to deploy their troops in Ukraine as part of security guarantees.”

During a conversation with President Trump, Putin proposed holding a trilateral meeting in Moscow. Reportedly, President Zelenskyy and President Trump rejected the offer.

Russia has lost more than 13% of its oil refining capacity due to drone strikes — The Moscow Times.
Since the beginning of August, drone attacks have disabled at least four major refineries: in Novokuibyshevsk, Saratov, Samara, and Volgograd. Rosneft’s largest refinery in Ryazan has also partially shut down.
The total loss of capacity amounts to about 44 million tons per year (13.5%). For comparison, in 2023 Russian refineries processed 267 million tons — the lowest in 12 years.
According to Reuters, repairs at some refineries will take at least a month, while the Samara refinery will remain idle until the end of August.

AI technologies that detect enemy mines and camouflaged drones: Dropla Tech raises €2.4 million
BRAVE1 participant Dropla Tech develops AI solutions that detect not only mines but also camouflaged enemy drones. The company secured €2.4 million in funding from the Export and Investment Fund of Denmark, Maj Invest, and Final Frontier. These resources will allow Dropla Tech to scale its solutions, strengthen R&D, and deploy advanced technologies directly to Ukrainian Armed Forces units.
Dropla Tech developments:
🔹 BLUE EYES — an autonomous real-time system for detecting explosives and drones in ambush scenarios. It operates even when communication and navigation are lost and does not require access to external servers.
🔹 DROPLA VISION — a mapping system that integrates data from five sensors into a single “smart” layer. The technology identifies hidden threats, including mines, explosives, ordinary objects, or natural obstacles. It enables military personnel to conduct rapid, efficient route clearance while protecting troop movements.
Through testing via Brave1 and feedback from soldiers, the system continually learns and becomes increasingly accurate.
Dropla Tech’s technologies are already on the front lines, detecting explosives, safeguarding logistics, and saving lives.

Meanwhile, Lavrov: “Without respect for Russia’s security and the full rights of Russians in Ukraine, there can be no talk of long-term agreements. The Russian Federation has never set itself the goal of seizing Crimea, Donbas, or [so-called] ‘Novorossiya.’ The main task was to protect the Russian people.”

🤦‍♂️ “A road to nowhere”: Lavrov said that “Russia itself must provide security guarantees for Ukraine.”
According to the Russian Foreign Minister, Moscow agrees that security guarantees for Ukraine should involve countries such as China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. However, he stressed that “without Russia, it will not be possible to resolve issues of collective security.”

heldinadream · 20/08/2025 12:48

jasflowers · 20/08/2025 12:43

Russia would deny & Trump would agree with Putin, doubtless saying the Ukrainians did it themselves.

Anyway, there wont be a meeting, this will end with Putin blaming collapse of talks on EU/Ukraine and Trump will agree with the Russians.

I fear this is where it's heading, and Trump will blame Zelenskyy for not being 'flexible' and Putin will just endlessly smirk in the background.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/08/2025 12:52

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Preparation is already underway for a Zelensky–Putin meeting — the White House
Meanwhile, media reports say the Trump administration is considering Budapest as the venue for a bilateral meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian leaders.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Budapest is not the best choice for a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, noting that in 1994 Ukraine had already received guarantees of territorial integrity from the US, Russia and the UK there.
Politico has reported that Washington is considering the Hungarian capital as the summit venue.
It was in Budapest in 1994 that the Budapest Memorandum was signed, under which Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances.

Trump called Russia “a powerful military nation” and “the much BIGGER nation,” saying: “You don’t take on a nation that is 10 times your size.”

Bipartisan frustration simmers in Washington as Trump’s peace efforts face scrutiny from Democratic and Republican lawmakers (www.kyivpost.com/post/58599) on Capitol Hill, and calls for firm action against Putin intensify.

‘Toothless’ Diplomacy: Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ meets Putin’s unflinching reality. (www.kyivpost.com/analysis/58597)
Experts warn that the US president’s diplomatic push is being outmaneuvered by the Kremlin, with no real peace in sight.

Ukrainian intel released information on a new Russian drone with LTE modems and Chinese parts, capable of reconnaissance, strikes, or acting (www.kyivpost.com/post/58619) as a decoy to overload air defenses.

A drone crashed and exploded in Poland about 120 km from the Ukraine.
Polish officials say one possibility is that it was a Russian drone that strayed into Polish airspace. According to Rzeczpospolita, the object was likely an Iranian-made Shahed — the same type Russia uses to attack Ukrainian citie

Austria’s Foreign Minister arrived in Odesa region, which came under a massive Russian attack overnight.
In Odesa, Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinger was welcomed by Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.
The ministers began the visit by honoring the memory of Ukraine’s fallen defenders of Europe.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
jasflowers · 20/08/2025 12:54

heldinadream · 20/08/2025 12:48

I fear this is where it's heading, and Trump will blame Zelenskyy for not being 'flexible' and Putin will just endlessly smirk in the background.

Putin/Trump are just going through the motions, Trump cares little for Europe or NATO, the idea he would authorise US jets to defend Ukraine is for the birds.

He is still blaming Ukraine, sees nothing wrong with Russia having the Donbas or that Russia can dictate to the 'West who can and cannot join NATO.

Its almost as if Trump is taking orders from the Kremlin.

btw i hope v much i'm wrong.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/08/2025 12:59

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

At the meeting with Trump, European leaders explained the risks of handing over the rest of Donetsk region to Russia, the Wall Street Journal reports.
In particular, Finnish President Alexander Stubb called the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk a “bulwark against the Huns” — a comparison that, according to WSJ sources, left a strong impression on Trump.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Russia’s demand for Ukraine to give up part of Donbas would be equivalent to demanding that the United States give up Florida.

🇨🇭Switzerland will not arrest Putin if he comes for a meeting with Zelensky, Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said.
According to him, Switzerland is “more than ready” to host a Ukraine–Russia summit. The Kremlin leader would be guaranteed immunity from arrest under the International Criminal Court warrant.
Last year, the Swiss government decided not to enforce international arrest warrants if the accused arrived in the country for peace talks rather than a private visit.
Putin last visited Geneva in June 2021. In March 2023, the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest. De jure, 123 countries remain closed to him.
▪️Earlier, Donald Trump said he was working to organize negotiations between Putin and Zelensky. According to media reports, the meeting is expected to take place in Europe, with Geneva and Rome under consideration.

🇧🇾Belarus suggests hosting a Zelensky–Putin meeting.

🇯🇵Japan may take part in providing security guarantees for Ukraine. The country is still considering its possible role, said Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, — Kyodo News.
Japanese forces currently participate in peacekeeping and anti-piracy missions overseas.

By the end of the month, at least 30,000 places must be prepared in 15 regions of Ukraine and in Kyiv to accommodate evacuees from frontline communities.
Prime Minister Svyrydenko also announced that additional transit hubs are being opened in Lozova and Voloske. She noted that this summer alone, more than 52,000 people from Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions have already passed through the transit center in Pavlohrad.

Russian media report that Ukraine’s Defense Forces have eliminated the brother of the scandalous Russian State Duma deputy and Ukrainophobe Vitaly Milonov. Oleksandr Milonov was a volunteer in the reconnaissance unit of the "Third Combined Arms Army of the LNR."

Two teenage girls who had been living under occupation for three years have been returned to Ukraine.
They had endured threats, the risk of searches, and were forced to attend Russian-run schools. Despite this, the girls studied online with Ukrainian schools and managed to avoid participating in imposed “patriotic” events.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has published photos of the first deportations of Ukrainians.
Who exactly was deported, and on what grounds, has not yet been disclosed.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/08/2025 13:01

It's not insignificant that India state refineries, who suspended purchases of Russian oil, have begun to buy it again.

@jasflowers I think Trump admires Putin and is scared of him. I think he'd like to be Putin, tbh.

jasflowers · 20/08/2025 13:16

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/08/2025 13:01

It's not insignificant that India state refineries, who suspended purchases of Russian oil, have begun to buy it again.

@jasflowers I think Trump admires Putin and is scared of him. I think he'd like to be Putin, tbh.

TACO strikes again!! and we should be putting pressure on India, not having a bloody FTA with them....

I think its more than "admire" but we will probably never know the real reasons.

blueshoes · 20/08/2025 14:04

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accurately stated that the Kremlin's objective in Ukraine is to politically control all of Ukraine rather than to seize select Ukrainian territories such as Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russia launched the full-scale invasion in 2022 after failing to secure control over Ukraine by other means.
  • Russia similarly seeks to exert influence over the internal governance of other former Soviet countries, including NATO states, effectively denying their sovereignty and setting conditions to threaten their independent governance.
  • Lavrov implicitly rejected suggestions that Russia might accept Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
  • Russian forces appear to be attempting to counterattack Ukrainian forces clearing the Russian infiltration near Dobropillya as Ukrainian forces increasingly threaten the base of the penetration.
  • Russian infiltration tactics and a low manpower density along the frontline in the Pokrovsk direction have seemingly allowed Russian forces to restore limited, tactical maneuver east and southeast of Dobropillya —at least temporarily.
  • Ukraine and Russia conducted another exchange of the bodies of soldiers killed in action (KIA) on August 19.
  • Ukrainian authorities implicated a soldier of the Russian 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment in the executions of two Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast in Summer 2024.
  • Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.
DuncinToffee · 20/08/2025 20:36

Russia’s Foreign Ministry adds 21 media and expert figures to its “stop list” for “demonizing our country” and “actively fabricating anti-Russia narratives to diminish Moscow’s international influence.” https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2042119/

PiggyPigalle · 20/08/2025 21:20

@jasflowers Who will especially like Sebastian Gorka wriggling like a grub on the end of a fishing line. From 3.21 on.
LBC interviewer actually asking the relevant question.
It's fake news I tell ya!

LlttledrummergirI · 20/08/2025 22:39

That bloke is pigshit thick.

Try getting your head out of Putins arse, even the language used screams Russian ally.

Kiev is the Russian name- it's Kyiv. Try getting the basics right fuckhead.

blueshoes · 21/08/2025 01:11

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • The Kremlin is demanding that Russia have a veto over any Western security guarantees for Ukraine in an effort to undermine ongoing US, European, and Ukrainian efforts to establish conditions for lasting peace in Ukraine.
  • The Kremlin appears to be demanding that any security guarantees be based on those proposed in the Istanbul 2022 framework, which would grant Russia and its allies the right to veto Western military assistance to Ukraine and leave Ukraine helpless in the face of future Russian threats.
  • The Kremlin is continuing to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to have an immediate bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the timeline proposed by US President Donald Trump.
  • The Russian economy continues to face budget deficits as a result of increased defense spending and detrimental effects of Western sanctions and secondary tariffs.
  • Secondary tariffs are likely forcing Russia to sell oil below market price, which could be decreasing the incoming flow of foreign funds into the Russian economy and depleting Russia’s primary source of wealth.
  • The Kremlin is reportedly considering replacing Russian Investigative Committee (Sledkom) Chairman Alexander Bastrykin, likely as part of the Kremlin's efforts to form a new and younger elite.
  • Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Toretsk, and Velykomykhailivka.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/08/2025 11:12

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Update: Massive Russian drone, missile attack (kyivindependent.com/explosions-heard-in-rivne-oblast-as-russia-launches-bombers-prompting-nationwide-aerial-alert/) causes fires, injuries far from front line despite peace talks.
Russia launched a wave of missiles and drones targeting cities across Ukraine overnight on Aug. 21, injuring 12 and sparking fires at a large electronics factory in Mukachevo, with damage also reported in other cities, including Lviv.

⚡️ Security guarantees for Ukraine can't be discussed (kyivindependent.com/us-uk-france-china-could-join-ukraine-security-guarantees-russias-lavrov-says/) without Russia's participation, Lavrov claims.

⚡️Ukraine's postal service (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-postal-service-sloses-kostiantynivka-branch-as-front-line-approaches/) сloses Kostiantynivka branch in Donetsk Oblast as front line approaches.

⚡️ Putin discusses Ukraine war with Erdogan (kyivindependent.com/putin-erdogan-discuss-ukraine-war-amid-zelensky-summit-venue-talks/) before potential meeting with Zelensky.
Russian President Vladimir Putin "noted with satisfaction Turkey's assistance in hosting talks between Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Istanbul," the Kremlin reported.

⚡️US plans to play minimal role in security guarantees (kyivindependent.com/us-plans-to-play-minimal-role-in-security-guarantees-for-ukraine-politico-reports/) for Ukraine, Politico reports.
U.S. Defense Policy Undersecretary Elbridge Colby told his European counterparts that the U.S. is planning to play a minimal role in security guarantees for Ukraine, Politico reported on Aug. 20.

⚡️Ukraine's ex-military chief Zaluzhnyi denies (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-ex-military-chief-zaluzhnyi-not-running-campaign-from-london-aide-says/) running presidential campaign from London.
"Valerii Zaluzhnyi has stated his position more than once, and as far as I know, it has not changed: while the war continues, we need to work to preserve the country, not think about elections," Zaluzhnyi's aide Oksana Torop said.

⚡️Japan, Sweden say (kyivindependent.com/japan-sweden-say-they-are-ready-to-contribute-to-security-guarantees-for-ukraine/) they're ready to contribute to security guarantees for Ukraine.

⚡️Updated: Ukraine's allies pledge to contribute to security guarantees.
(kyivindependent.com/japan-sweden-say-they-are-ready-to-contribute-to-security-guarantees-for-ukraine/)
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said his country was ready to put troops on the ground as part of a peacekeeping force, while Poland said its soldiers would assist the "coalition of the willing" while remaining in Poland.

⚡️Italy's Meloni backs Ukraine security plan that gives allies 24 hours (kyivindependent.com/italys-meloni-backs-ukraine-security-plan-that-gives-allies-24-hours-to-send-troops-if-russia-invades-again-bloomberg-reports/) to send troops if Russia invades again, Bloomberg reports.
The plan would require countries that have signed security agreements with Ukraine to deliberate and respond quickly in the event of another Russian attack following a peace agreement. It would not include NATO membership for Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine destroys Russian patrol boat (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-destroys-russian-patrol-boat-in-black-sea-using-drone-guided-laser-intelligence-says/) in Black Sea using drone-guided laser, intelligence says.
Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) struck a Russian patrol boat in the Black Sea near the occupied town of Zaliznyi Port in Kherson Oblast, killing five crew members, HUR reported on Aug. 21.

⚡️US absent (kyivindependent.com/us-stays-out-of-un-statement-condemning-russias-war-in-georgia/) from UN condemnation of Russia's war in Georgia.
In a joint statement, representatives of five Security Council members — Denmark, France, Greece, the United Kingdom and Slovenia — along with incoming member Latvia, denounced Russia's invasion of Georgia 17 years ago and its continued military presence in the country's Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions.

⚡️Drone strike sparks blaze at oil refinery (kyivindependent.com/drone-strike-sparks-blaze-at-oil-refinery-in-russias-rostov-oblast-media-reports/) in Russia's Rostov Oblast, media reports.
The attack allegedly hit the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, which has previously been targeted in Ukrainian drone strikes. Residents said they heard five explosions over the city and that a fire broke out at the refinery.

Ukrainian students to protest Navalny widow's appearance at Edinburgh literary festival over her Ukraine views (https://kyivindependent.com/yulia-navalnayas-imperialist-views-spark-ukrainian-student-opposition-to-edinburgh-international-book-festival-appearance/)

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 1h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — AUG 21, 2025
■ 2nd largest overnight attacks; 94% intercepted
■ Engagements slightly above average; casualties below average
■ 2nd largest drone losses (excl. night hours)
■ Visually confirmed: 18 🇷🇺 : 39 🇺🇦 — 30-day ratio at 0.7x

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/08/2025 11:19

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The West plans to prepare a draft framework of security guarantees for Ukraine by the end of next week, Euractiv reports, citing sources.
This will be followed by a second round of talks with US President Donald Trump and a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, “which could take place within two to three weeks.”
The talks are being held at the level of national security advisers.
There is now broad consensus on security guarantees, which include three elements: well-equipped and armed Ukrainian forces without limits on numbers, a multinational “security force” after a ceasefire, and some form of US support — though the extent of Washington’s involvement remains unclear.

Germany is actively working on developing reliable security guarantees for Ukraine, though its exact contribution has not yet been determined. It will depend on the progress of peace talks, possible US involvement, and coordination with close partners, said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

🚀 By the end of the year, Ukraine will begin mass production of long-range Flamingo missiles, President Zelenskyy announced.
He called the Flamingo the “most successful” of all Ukrainian weapons currently in service.

❗️Russians are spreading a fake about 1.7 million Ukrainian soldiers allegedly killed or missing — Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD)
Kremlin-controlled propaganda outlets claim that Russian hackers accessed the database of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and obtained this information.
This is a completely absurd fake, as Ukraine has never had a regular army of 1.7 million troops in its history of independence.
The purpose of this fake is to demoralize Ukrainians, convince the world of the “exhaustion and ineffectiveness” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and weaken international support, the Center noted.

🇬🇧 The United Kingdom has imposed sanctions on financial networks used by Russia to evade existing Western restrictions, including Kyrgyz cryptocurrency networks.
“If the Kremlin thinks it can hide its hopeless attempts to soften the blow of our sanctions by laundering transactions through suspicious crypto networks, it is sorely mistaken,” said UK Sanctions Minister Stephen Doughty.

The Russian Federation used several cruise missiles to strike an American enterprise in Transcarpathia, President Zelenskyy said.
“It was an ordinary civilian enterprise with American investment. They produced familiar household items, such as coffee machines. And this is also a target for the Russians. Very telling. Right now, the rescuers are still extinguishing a fire at the enterprise,” the president noted.

Ukrainian lighting designer Mykola Kabluka will present the sculpture “The Point of Unity” at the Burning Man 2025 festival in the United States.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/08/2025 11:21

groan it mentioned the bloody currency again

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/08/2025 11:24

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Although Moscow has said it is willing to accept Article-5-style security guarantees for Kyiv, (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/58638) it has also set conditions resembling Ukraine’s neutralization – terms that Kyiv is unlikely to accept.

Ukraine’s Q2 GDP grew on metallurgy, construction, and defense manufacturing. (www.kyivpost.com/post/58632) However, the economy was curbed by weak agriculture, coal mining losses, and Russian strikes on energy.

Ukrainian forces near Pokrovsk eliminated more than 200 Russian troops in just three days, (www.kyivpost.com/post/58681) the General Staff reported, adding that several settlements in Donetsk region have been cleared.

Epicenter Agro, a subsidiary of Ukraine’s largest retail group Epicenter K, (www.kyivpost.com/post/58652) is building a grain terminal on the Black Sea coast with a 5-million-ton annual capacity, set to open in 2026.

Over half of Poles believe Zelensky should not make concessions to Russia in pursuit of peace, (www.kyivpost.com/post/58628) according to a new poll.

As lawmakers debate funding for drone programs, a new congressional report says the US must adopt superior, adaptable technology to maintain its edge, (www.kyivpost.com/post/58664) learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Amid war, Ukraine’s music festivals endure, blending culture, solidarity, and survival as artists and audiences keep the beat of life alive.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said that to grasp the scale of Russia’s territorial demands on Ukraine, Americans should imagine suddenly losing several large states — for example, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and even Virginia.

Russia, China Should Be Involved in Security Guarantees for Kyiv, Lavrov Says

Although Moscow has said it is willing to accept Article-5-style security guarantees for Kyiv, it has also set conditions resembling Ukraine’s neutralization – terms that Kyiv is unlikely to accept.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/58638)

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/08/2025 11:32

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️Ukraine is currently producing one “Flamingo” missile per day.

🇪🇺🇺🇸Europe buys US weapons at a 10% markup and transfers them to Ukraine, says US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
According to him, this scheme can cover Washington’s expenses on arming Ukraine under security guarantees, particularly for protecting Ukrainian airspace.
Bessent added that the US expects to recoup its investments after the war through economic partnership with Ukraine, with dedicated investment programs already being launched.
▪️Earlier, Donald Trump said the US is ready to provide air support to Ukraine if a potential peace deal with Russia is reached, while ruling out the deployment of American troops on Ukrainian soil.
▪️In August, it was reported that the US and NATO are working on a new approach to supplying weapons to Ukraine, using NATO countries’ funds to purchase or transfer US-made arms. The new mechanism is designed to deliver weapons from Ukraine’s Priority Urgent Requirements List (PURL).

🇪🇺🇬🇧 The U.K. and EU countries may impose new sanctions on Russia if Putin refuses to meet with Zelensky and Trump, The Telegraph reports.
“If Putin delays, evades, or rejects negotiations, it will be another trigger for sanctions,” a U.K. government source told the outlet.

🇦🇹 Austria will provide an additional €2 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Foreign Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinger announced during her visit to Odesa.
Together with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, she paid special attention to further involving Austria’s architectural school in Odesa in the context of the city’s reconstruction.

A Russian attack on August 18 destroyed 15,000 books at the library of Sumy State University.
Since April 2025, when Russia struck the university’s Congress Center, Sumy State University has lost a total of 45,000 books. With the latest fire, the overall number of destroyed volumes has reached 60,000. [fucking book-burners. Savages.]

🇺🇸Without U.S. coordination on security guarantees, Europe felt uncertain, President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists.
He stressed that for both Ukraine and Europe, it was crucial that after the White House meeting, the U.S. declared its readiness to participate. Following this, Turkey, for example, announced it was prepared to help secure the Black Sea as part of security guarantees — but only in partnership with others. Zelensky also noted that it remains unclear how many countries are willing to send troops to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces have revealed how they blew up the car of Russian Lieutenant General Esedulla Abachev in Russia’s Kursk region.
The strike on the vehicle was carried out by the UA_REG TEAM unit of the SSO overnight on August 17, just 5 kilometers from the city of Rylsk.
According to available information, the Russian general sustained severe injuries resulting in the amputation of an arm and a leg. He was urgently airlifted to Moscow.
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/33778

TikTok has blocked two channels belonging to sanctioned politician Yevheniy Murayev.
The channels had been spreading pro-Russian narratives and disinformation.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Desdemonashandkerchief · 21/08/2025 18:29

Edward Lucas opinion piece in The Times today:

While Europe waits on Trump, Putin is winning

Focus on summits and supposed security guarantees misses the point: Russia has the initiative

In the lonely grandeur of his presidential palace outside Moscow, Vladimir Putin can look back on a successful week. His meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska signalled to Russians and the world the failure of western attempts to make Russia a diplomatic pariah. It also underlined his psychological grip on the US president, who insists loudly that the Russian leader truly wants peace. Threats of tighter US sanctions have evaporated. The question now is how hard Trump will arm-twist Ukraine, not Russia.
On that, the European leaders averted the worst, riding shotgun for Volodymyr Zelensky during his trip to the White House. But playing bit parts in Trump's reality TV show is humiliating and exhausting. Each episode ends on a cliffhanger. Jumping to the crack of the ringmaster's whip is not a sustainable model for transatlantic security.
The Europeans are trying to talk up their chances. They know that Putin is insincere. Their best hope, as before, is that Trump comes to realise this and joins them in helping Ukraine and squeezing Russia: it could then face a “tough situation”, he says vaguely. A Putin-Zelensky meeting might lay bare Russia's intransigence. So might Putin's refusal to attend. Meanwhile a coalition of the willing is working on plans to secure post-ceasefire Ukraine.
But these are all long shots. For a start, Russia's aggression, bloody-mindedness and sweeping ambitions hardly need further exposure. Putin has been telegraphing them for years (and Kremlin mischief-making in the former Soviet empire goes back even earlier, to the 1990s). Why would those who have denied these realities in the past acknowledge them now? Trump's repeated claim that Ukraine started the war is ludicrous. But the president does not like to be fact-checked.
Putin sees the European strategy clearly, and has ways and means to foil it. He will use his hotline to the mercurial, self-centred Trump to ensure that the blame for delays and failures in the misbegotten peace process lands on Zelensky and the Europeans. In a Trumpian tantrum he can again order the suspension of intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, applying pressure with a tactic used to deadly effect in February. A review of the US “force posture” (military presence) in Europe, to be announced next month, contains uncomfortable news for the Nato allies. It could easily be a great deal worse. Europe is in no position to quarrel with its capricious hegemon. In short, so long as Putin controls Trump, he controls Europe.
The security guarantees are a nonsense. One reason is lack of muscle. Providing Ukraine with real defence against a renewed Russian attack would require the sort of force, hundreds of thousands strong, deployed in Cold War West Germany. That is far beyond European capabilities. A tripwire presence, with or without bells and whistles, lacks credibility, because we palpably lack resolve. As General Sir Richard Barrons, co-author of Britain's most recent strategic defence review, asks, are we willing to shoot down a Russian missile heading for Ukraine? And the plane that launched it? Or the base inside Russia it flies from? If yes, we must be ready to go to war with Russia. If not, our presence is a sham.
Europeans were not willing to fight alongside Ukraine when it had a chance of repelling the invasion. Why would they fight for Ukraine when it has been dismembered and defeated? Russia will rightly regard paper promises from the US or anyone else as valueless. But Putin will welcome such discussions. Anything that highlights and erodes Nato's tattered credibility and overstretched armed forces is welcome. The debate also gives Russia a chance to demand concessions for whatever token European forces may be allowed to set foot in Ukraine.
Ukraine's only real security lies in its own military strength. Putin's priority is to erode it. Discussions about territorial concessions dent morale: why die for a piece of land that your leaders are going to give away? Yet without a radical increase in outside support, Ukraine will struggle. Russia's drone output is soaring, with the prospect of mass attacks that will swamp Ukraine's air defences this winter. Both sides are innovating fast in novel forms of attack and defence (leaving our own military, incidentally, slack-jawed with worry). But Ukraine's edge is no longer what it was. The war of attrition favours Russia, which has built a “mobilisational state”, says Andrew Monaghan, a former Nato Russia expert and author of a new book, Blitzkrieg and the Russian Art of War. Recruited with a mixture of cash, propaganda and pressure, its annual haul of volunteer soldiers outnumbers the entire British Army. Ukrainian recruitment is flagging.
In Russia the pro-Kremlin media gleefully highlight our worries. A commentator on the main television channel, Rossiya-1, noted, “the decisions western countries will have to make in the coming days promise nothing good, either for themselves or for Kyiv”. Putin knows that his main counterparts, Sir Keir Starmer, Germany's Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron of France, are unpopular. Our leaders face electoral cycles, economic stress and social unrest. Putin suffers no such constraints.
Our current diplomacy and discussion frame the central issue too narrowly as finding a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine. Seen from Moscow a much wider contest is under way, aiming to break the old rules and alliances to create a might-is-right world. Until we understand how our enemies see things, we are unlikely to find a way to beat them.

SummerEve · 21/08/2025 18:58

That was a depressing but realistic read.

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