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Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

1000 replies

MagicFox · 05/12/2024 18:14

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
293
Igotjelly · 15/02/2025 22:14

I find talk of β€œpeace” disgusting. What Trump proposes is nothing short of capitulation. He’s selling the whole of Europe to the devil.

RedRosesParmaViolets · 15/02/2025 22:22

Thanks for the brilliant break down everyone.
I was on these threads for a good while from the start.

I feel Russia and Ukraine will either stay in a war of attrition or Russia will slowly win.

I think a brokered peace will break the deadlock and then they can shore themselves up. For instance all the fuss over fighter planes and this and that would be swept away because they are not in combat.

They can get properly shored up and rebuild. With international troops on the borders putin wouldn't dare to try and take it again.. Yes they may loose some historically contested territory but they will keep most of their country which they are still at risk of loosing

PiggyPigalle · 15/02/2025 22:27

PerkingFaintly · 15/02/2025 22:02

The brass neck of it.

Kellogg tells European leaders that Europe must come up with the ideas and money.

And at the same time, tells them it's "not realistic" for Europe’s leaders to be involved in the US and Russia's discussions about what Europe will do.

Why is Trump taking it upon himself to negotiate then? Perhaps something to do with precious minerals, that he's already tried to get Zelensky to sign for, but refused.

Igotjelly · 15/02/2025 22:29

RedRosesParmaViolets · 15/02/2025 22:22

Thanks for the brilliant break down everyone.
I was on these threads for a good while from the start.

I feel Russia and Ukraine will either stay in a war of attrition or Russia will slowly win.

I think a brokered peace will break the deadlock and then they can shore themselves up. For instance all the fuss over fighter planes and this and that would be swept away because they are not in combat.

They can get properly shored up and rebuild. With international troops on the borders putin wouldn't dare to try and take it again.. Yes they may loose some historically contested territory but they will keep most of their country which they are still at risk of loosing

I firmly believe that Russia will take any pause as just that, a pause to regroup rearm and try again. I also wouldn’t trust Trump not to say to Putin he can have his way with the Baltics etc.

And it’s all very well to say they lose contested territory but with that they’re condemning a traumatised population to a life of hell on Earth. The levels of partisan resistance activity in these territories tells you these people don’t want to be Russian.

Sorry I’m just so angry.

RedRosesParmaViolets · 15/02/2025 22:34

I'm sure they don't but I imagine no one in Ukraine wants to be taken over
Not a pause an end to the war then they get jets in and get properly tooled up.

They have been fighting with one hand behind their backs because Russia has had them and us over a barrel. Don't give them jets we will nuke you don't fight with them we will nuke you etc.

If the war is ended then Ukraine can re group and get properly shored up. Putin wouldn't cross that line again. No way.
At least the majority of Ukraine can re build their lives in peace and feel secure.

prettybird · 15/02/2025 22:40

PiggyPigalle · 15/02/2025 21:19

Starmer will try and get to Paris. I can't imagine what could be more important at present.
Macron calls crisis summit amid concern over Trump’s plan for Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian

There's a tunnel that runs from Dover to Calais. Does Starmer about it?

Igotjelly · 15/02/2025 22:43

RedRosesParmaViolets · 15/02/2025 22:34

I'm sure they don't but I imagine no one in Ukraine wants to be taken over
Not a pause an end to the war then they get jets in and get properly tooled up.

They have been fighting with one hand behind their backs because Russia has had them and us over a barrel. Don't give them jets we will nuke you don't fight with them we will nuke you etc.

If the war is ended then Ukraine can re group and get properly shored up. Putin wouldn't cross that line again. No way.
At least the majority of Ukraine can re build their lives in peace and feel secure.

He will cross that line again and it will be worse. This isn’t the kind of peace that lasts. It’s Minsk 3.0.

prettybird · 15/02/2025 22:43

PiggyPigalle · 15/02/2025 21:19

Starmer will try and get to Paris. I can't imagine what could be more important at present.
Macron calls crisis summit amid concern over Trump’s plan for Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian

Try that again Blush There's a tunnel that runs from Dover to Calais. Does Starmer know about it? Wink on the app so can't edit

Llttledrummergirl · 15/02/2025 22:46

RedRosesParmaViolets · 15/02/2025 22:22

Thanks for the brilliant break down everyone.
I was on these threads for a good while from the start.

I feel Russia and Ukraine will either stay in a war of attrition or Russia will slowly win.

I think a brokered peace will break the deadlock and then they can shore themselves up. For instance all the fuss over fighter planes and this and that would be swept away because they are not in combat.

They can get properly shored up and rebuild. With international troops on the borders putin wouldn't dare to try and take it again.. Yes they may loose some historically contested territory but they will keep most of their country which they are still at risk of loosing

Any pause will be temporary, and only aid Putin. The starting point for any negotiations should that Ukraine belongs to Ukrainians. With that in mind, you talk to them, not about them.
This is not a negotiation, it's Putin and Trump steamrollering Ukraine and Europe. It's fucking abhorrent that a so called ally would behave so treacherously.

PerkingFaintly · 15/02/2025 22:50

Starmer will be attending the European summit and taking messages from the meeting on to Washington, where he's scheduled to meet Trump.

Starmer to join Macron-led European crisis summit on Trump’s Ukraine plan
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/15/europe-will-not-take-part-in-us-russia-talks-ukraine-kellogg
Starmer said: β€œThis is a once in a generation moment for our national security where we engage with the reality of the world today and the threat we face from Russia. It’s clear Europe must take a greater role in Nato as we work with the United States to secure Ukraine’s future and face down the threat we face from Russia. The UK will work to ensure we keep the US and Europe together. We cannot allow any divisions in the alliance to distract from the external enemies we face.”

Igotjelly · 15/02/2025 22:54

I sincerely hope that what stems from this is a stronger more integrated Europe, including Ukraine and the UK that is able to stand on its own two feet because fuck me we have everything needed to be a superpower in our own right. The US have shown through Trump that we can’t rely on them, it’s time we pulled ourselves up by our bootstraps and put on our big girl pants.

PerkingFaintly · 15/02/2025 23:03

We need to stop thinking of the current US administration as an ally – even though the US may be in the longer term.

Looking at the actions of President Musk, they are currently actively attacking the UK and other European countries to try to bring them into line with the new administration's racist, natalist, authoritarian values.

It's hardly out of the blue. This is what Steve Bannon has spent the last 4+ years working on.

And we saw, in the tariffs nonsense, Trump start threatening the US's allies first thing out of the gate, even before threatening the US's enemies.

Natsku · 16/02/2025 08:56

Igotjelly · 15/02/2025 22:54

I sincerely hope that what stems from this is a stronger more integrated Europe, including Ukraine and the UK that is able to stand on its own two feet because fuck me we have everything needed to be a superpower in our own right. The US have shown through Trump that we can’t rely on them, it’s time we pulled ourselves up by our bootstraps and put on our big girl pants.

Edited

I really really hope so too. We cannot rely on the US, we need to be stronger without them and just consider them a nice bonus when there's decent politicians in power.

PerkingFaintly · 16/02/2025 09:09

Natsku · 16/02/2025 08:56

I really really hope so too. We cannot rely on the US, we need to be stronger without them and just consider them a nice bonus when there's decent politicians in power.

Yes, this.

Mb76 · 16/02/2025 09:40

Llttledrummergirl · 15/02/2025 22:46

Any pause will be temporary, and only aid Putin. The starting point for any negotiations should that Ukraine belongs to Ukrainians. With that in mind, you talk to them, not about them.
This is not a negotiation, it's Putin and Trump steamrollering Ukraine and Europe. It's fucking abhorrent that a so called ally would behave so treacherously.

This a 1000%

Also Ukraine has already lost territories to Russia while in the USSR times. Crimea wasn’t a β€œgift”, they took away Krasnodar and more in β€œexchange” for example.
putin will never stop until he has all of Ukraine if he has his way.

what makes me really mad is the fact that in the modern age we live, in the developed world, we are expected to sit and let a convicted felon and a war criminal β€œpresidents” decide the fate of the nation neither of them are citizens of.

And lastly, I said this before, my home is in a temporary occupied (since 2014) part of Ukraine, I want to be able to go back someday, to visit and show my daughter where I came from, but not if it’s in Russia.
How many of you here can never visit your childhood home or the town you grew up in?
How would you feel about that @RedRosesParmaViolets ?

Natsku · 16/02/2025 09:56

@Mb76 Flowers I hope one day, not too far away, you'll be able to show your daughter where you come from, in a free Ukraine

MagicFox · 16/02/2025 10:31

There needs to be a clear sense of what the "security guarantees" would actually be.

OP posts:
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/02/2025 10:38

I think @@RedRosesParmaViolets has some points; it has to be remembered that Ukraine really in the early days looked to be entirely defeated and it's not. The price has been huge, so many tens of thousands at least dead, but most of it is still free.

Also, we on this thread are mostly of one mind and passionately angry and disappointed but that doesn't mean some of the points she made are wrong. Despite the heartbreak for people on the thread who have lost homes and lost their family from the invasion.

Mainly though, now Europe really REALLY needs to wise up and work together (and suspend Hungary from the EU, ffs, we are own worst enemy in not doing that). To prepare for the high likelihood of more Russian aggression and invasion.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/02/2025 10:52

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Trump team heading to Saudi Arabia for Ukraine-Russia peace talks (kyivindependent.com/trump-team-heading-to-saudia-arabia-for-ukraine-peace-talks-politico-reports/), Politico reports.

⚑️Official denies (kyivindependent.com/official-denies-ukraine-will-participate-in-russia-us-meeting-in-saudi-arabia-amid-conflicting-reports/) Ukraine will participate in Russia-US meeting in Saudi Arabia.
Podolyak's comments come amid conflicting reports that Russian and Ukrainian representatives are set to join senior U.S. officials in Riyadh for peace talks.

⚑️Europe won't participate in peace negotiations, (kyivindependent.com/europe-wont-participate-in-negotiations-but-its-interests-to-be-considered-kellogg-says/) but its interests to be considered, Kellogg says.

⚑️France to host (kyivindependent.com/france-to-host-emergency-summit-on-ukraine-as-trump-administration-begins-peace-negotiations-with-russia-without-input-from-europe/) emergency summit on Ukraine as Trump administration and Russian officials set to begin peace negotiations without Europe.
European leaders are set to gather in Paris on Feb. 17 for an emergency summit over concerns that the U.S. is advancing peace talks with Russia without Europe, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski announced on Feb. 15.

⚑️US requests (kyivindependent.com/us-requesting-european-countries-to-draft-proposals-outlining-post-war-security-assurances-for-ukraine-ft-reports/) European countries to draft proposals outlining post-war security assurances for Ukraine, FT reports.

⚑️State Secretary Rubio holds phone call (kyivindependent.com/state-secretary-rubio-holds-phone-call-with-russias-lavrov/) with Russia's Lavrov.

⚑️Europe quietly developing plan to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/europe-quietly-developing-plan-to-send-peacekeeping-troops-to-ukraine-ap-reports/), AP reports.
Estonia's Defense Minister Hanno Pevklur said that European allies are "in a very early stage" of developing the plan to deploy peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.

⚑️G7 leaders: Future sanctions hinged (kyivindependent.com/g7-leaders-future-sanctions-hinged-on-russias-good-faith-efforts-during-peace-talks/) on Russia's 'good faith efforts' during peace talks.

⚑️'You can't kill your way out of this war' β€” Kellogg calls for sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet, concessions (kyivindependent.com/you-cant-kill-your-way-out-of-this-war-kellogg-calls-for-sanctions-against-russias-shadow-fleet-concessions-from-ukraine-to-end-the-war/) from Ukraine to end war.

⚑️US wants to get 50% of Ukrainian minerals (kyivindependent.com/us-wants-to-get-50-of-ukrainian-minerals-signals-openness-to-deploying-american-troops-to-guard-them-nbs-reports/), may deploy its troops to guard them, NBC reports.

⚑️Ukraine 'not ready' to sign (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-not-ready-to-sign-mineral-resource-agreement-with-us-zelensky-says/) mineral resource agreement with US, Zelensky says.

⚑️Success already 'feels possible' after start of collaboration (kyivindependent.com/success-already-feels-possible-after-start-of-collaboration-with-us-officials-zelensky-says/) with US officials, Zelensky says.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 15 that success β€œalready feels possible” as his administration begins collaborations with U.S. President Donald Trump’s team

⚑️Russia must withdraw to at least pre-2022 front line (kyivindependent.com/russia-must-withdraw-to-at-least-pre-2022-front-line-zelensky-says/), Zelensky says.

⚑️As little as 1,000 Russian troops (kyivindependent.com/only-1500-russian-troops-left-in-transnistria-zelensky-says/) left in Transnistria, Zelensky says.

⚑️Zelensky calls for creation of 'army of Europe' (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-calls-for-creation-of-army-of-europe-amid-us-support-uncertainty/)amid US support uncertainty. "Let's be clear: We cannot rule out the possibility that America may refuse to cooperate with Europe on issues that threaten it," Volodymyr Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference.

⚑️Senior US diplomat visits (kyivindependent.com/senior-us-diplomat-visits-belarus-political-prisoners-released/) Belarus, three political prisoners released, NYT reports.
U.S. Deputy Assistant State Secretary Christopher W. Smith visited Belarus alongside two other U.S. officials in an unannounced meeting on Feb. 12, the New York Times reported, potentially ending Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's isolation from the West.
The meeting comes as the U.S. seeks to negotiate a deal with Belarusian authorities. In exchange for the release of an undefined number of political prisoners, the U.S. is willing to ease sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash, the New York Times (NYT) reported on Feb. 15, citing unnamed officials in contact with Smith on Feb. 13.

⚑️Almost 250,000 Russian soldiers killed (kyivindependent.com/russia-has-lost-almost-250-000-soldiers-in-war-against-ukraine-zelensky-says/)in Ukraine war, Zelensky says.

Making sense of Trump’s plan (kyivindependent.com/making-sense-of-trumps-plan-if-there-is-one-to-end-russias-war-in-ukraine/) – if there is one – to end Russia’s war in Ukraine

⚑️Ukraine, Germany agree to open 'Unity Hub (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-germany-agree-to-open-ukraines-unity-hub-in-berlin/)' for Ukrainian refugees in Berlin.
"This is a professional space that brings together community, business, and cultural initiatives," National Unity Minister Oleksii Chernyshov said.

β€ͺRagnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦β€¬ - FEB 16, 2025
β–  Most engagements of the year so far, biggest casualties in over three weeks
β–  Most APV losses reported since Oct 11, 2023
β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί MLRS strikes well above the 7-day average

image posting is back.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/02/2025 10:53

If the US tells Europe that it -has- to accept the terms negotiated and supply peace keepers, I hope Zelensky will refuse to accept them. Trump is not the boss of Europe.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/02/2025 11:00

United24 Media Telegram Highlights

Zelenskyy held a press conference after participating in the Munich Security Conference:
▫️ Ukraine insists on the presence of American troops in a peacekeeping mission, but it does not necessarily have to be American infantry.
▫️ He commented on US Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech, which sparked a strong reaction from European politicians:
β€œIndeed, this alliance between the United States and Europe is very important. And it is clear that Europeans are afraid of certain statements, and there were many of them from America, including (Vance’s speech), which do not talk about strengthening this alliance.”
▫️ Zelenskyy expects Trump’s representative for negotiations on Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, to visit the front lines.
▫️ β€œThe issue of elections is raised only by Putin and some voices in the US. No one raises it at a high level. Everyone understands that this is a violation of the law and there are no such opportunities,” he said.
▫️ Putin is only ready for a ceasefire agreement, while Ukraine’s task is to stop the war, achieve peace, and not lose support.

The Group of Seven (G7) countries have agreed to tie further sanctions against Russia to the progress of future peace talks.
The G7 members also reaffirmed their β€œunwavering support for Ukraine” in defending its territorial integrity. Since G7 decisions require consensus, the US also backed this position

Zelenskyy said that Putin’s goal in negotiations is not to end the war but to secure a ceasefire agreement.
According to him, such an agreement would help lift international sanctions on Russia and give it time to regroup.

The US has asked European countries for proposals on security guarantees for Ukraine, according to Reuters.
Citing sources, the agency reports that Washington has sent its European allies a document with six questions regarding possible security measures, peacekeeping forces, and weapons they are ready to provide to Ukraine.
The US State Department stated that it expects initiatives from European partners in forming a reliable security system for Ukraine and is eagerly awaiting their proposals.

β—οΈβ€œI will not remove Ukraine’s membership in NATO from the negotiating table,” Zelenskyy stated.
β€œHowever, now it seems that the most influential member of NATO is Putin, because his whims can block NATO decisions. Despite the fact that it was the Ukrainian army that stopped Russia, not the army of a NATO country,” he noted during his speech at the Munich Security Conference.

β€œUkrainian Defense Industry” and the French company Thales International SAS have signed an agreement to develop a joint venture.
The enterprise will focus on creating β€œadvanced technological solutions” and providing optimized and operational support in areas such as air defense, radar systems, electronic warfare, tactical communications, and optoelectronic systems.

Zelenskyy spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about security guarantees and Europe’s role in the peace process.
He also discussed expanding cooperation with Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall AG.

CDU leader and candidate for German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has announced his intention to change Berlin’s policy on supplying long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine after the elections.
β€œWe must be ready to supply, but only if we agree with our European partners, and here I am talking about Britain and France (which also have long-range missiles) on the division of roles,” he said.

The occupiers’ advance has slowed.
Winter plays a roleβ€”without foliage, infantry is easily spotted and targeted by drones. Another factor is the exhaustion of Russian forces.
Ukraine, also facing an infantry shortage, relies heavily on drones. This tactic is effectiveβ€”Russian losses have risen every month for the past five months of 2024.

The Ukrainian team claimed eight medals in swimming at the Invictus Games, including five golds.
Ihor Oliynyk emerged as one of the most decorated participants, securing two gold and two silver medals.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/02/2025 11:04

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

β€œDon’t worry about provoking Putin.”
Senator Lindsey Graham at #MSC2025:
β€œWe should have integrated our economies with Ukraine and strengthened its military to deter invasion. But we didn’tβ€”because we didn’t want to provoke Putin. We never set clear consequences for him either, for the same reason. Lesson learned.”

With White House pressure mounting for Kyiv to conduct elections, Kyiv Post investigated the ramifications: Why are they wanted by some and opposed by others? Are they feasible in War-torn Ukraine?
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/47047

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/02/2025 11:08

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί Hungary Blocks Opening of EU Accession Talks for Ukraine – RMF FM
Poland, which holds the EU Council presidency for the first half of 2025, presented a key reform letter on February 14 to pave the way for negotiations in April.
According to RMF FM, all EU countries supported the letter except Hungary, which is demanding additional conditions from Ukraine, including a plan to protect national minorities.
This could delay the opening of the first negotiation cluster, β€œFundamentals.” The decision requires unanimous approval in Brussels for Ukraine to receive the letter.

Trump’s Envoy Kellogg Commits to Engaging All Parties in Ukraine Peace Talks Within 180 Days
Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s special representative for Russia-Ukraine affairs, stated at the Munich Security Conference that he will take 180 days to bring all sides to the negotiating table, with the U.S. acting as a mediator.
He emphasized that the U.S. will not exclude any party from the processβ€”neither Ukraine, Russia, nor European allies.
However, Kellogg noted that while Europe will not physically sit at the negotiating table between Ukraine and Russia, its interests will be taken into account.

Russian command may shift its offensive priorities in spring and summer 2025 – ISW
During the Munich Security Conference, Zelensky stated that the situation on the Pokrovsk front has improved in recent days. A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the area also noted that Russian activity near Pokrovsk has become less intense recently.
Analysts suggest that Russian military leadership may prioritize an offensive on Kostyantynivka in 2025. As a result, reports indicate that Russia is not reinforcing its troop presence south of Pokrovsk.

Drone strike on Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant shelter. IAEA team inspected the incident site.
The agency confirmed that radiation levels remain normal. On February 14, a Russian drone pierced a hole in the roof of the New Safe Confinement, the massive arched shelter covering the old sarcophagus of Chornobyl’s fourth reactor, which prevents radiation from spreading.
The IAEA recorded damage to both the outer and inner layers of the arch, as well as to some equipment and electrical cables. However, the support beams remained largely intact.
Repairs to the shelter have been postponed due to a fire. As of yesterday, emergency crews were still working to extinguish the blaze. Their efforts are being complicated by freezing temperatures, snow, and ice buildup on the structure.

In 2024, Ukraine exported 13.4% more grain than in 2023. Spain was the largest buyer of corn and wheat, and China was the largest buyer of barley.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
blueshoes · 16/02/2025 11:41

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-15-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to create conditions to frame Putin as the victor over US President Donald Trump in negotiations.
  • Ukraine's US and European partners continue to work to jointly develop Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).
  • Kremlin-controlled state media used an interview with Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk to reiterate the Kremlin's false narrative about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's illegitimacy and Russia's longstanding goal of destroying the Ukrainian state.
  • Russian advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk have slowed over the last two weeks amid indications that the Russian military command may prioritize offensive operations against Kostyantynivka β€” the southernmost point of Ukraine's fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast β€” in Spring and Summer 2025.
  • Russian advances may be slowing south of Pokrovsk due to degradation among frontline Russian units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area.
  • The Russian military command may also intend to prioritize assaults on Kostyantynivka in 2025 and are thus reportedly not reinforcing the Russian force grouping south of Pokrovsk.
  • Russian cargo vessels have continued to evacuate military assets from the port of Tartus as Russia negotiates its presence in Syria with the interim government.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Velyka Novosilka and in Kursk Oblast.
  • Russian occupation authorities continue to create regional analogues to the federal "Time of Heroes" program, which aims to place veterans of the war in Ukraine in government positions as part of Kremlin efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia and militarize society and government.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Llttledrummergirl · 16/02/2025 11:58

How many of you here can never visit your childhood home or the town you grew up in?
How would you feel about that
?

@Mb76 going up in the military means that I have childhood homes that I am unable to visit. I have some sadness for this, but there are logical reasons for this which I understand.

If I couldn't return because they had been invaded, and destroyed I the senseless manner we see in Ukraine, I would add rage, disbelief, horror, pain. It is indescribable and my heart goes out to you and all those suffering.

Kellogg is a fucking idiot who can fuck off with his exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from any talks. Is he afraid that his plans are so abhorrent, they won't stand to scrutiny?

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