Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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You mean a double bluff by Trump?
He only counts three countries as being important, USA, China and Russia.
Apart from a nod to Germany, the US thinks of Europe as quaint villages and ancient ruins.
He said Ukraine could be Russian one day, because it doesn't matter to him.
China has offered to host peace talks between Trump and Putin, Europe not invited. Just the big 3.

The posts are back lunchbreak over, so I'll read them after work. Thank you @DucklingSwimmingInstructress

Good opinion of Zelenskyy has been waning the last few months or more. According to my friend in Kharkiv, feeling is that he performs well on the world stage but doesn't come down hard enough on the corruption in his ranks. My other friend in Odessa said the removal of men merely walking on the street and immediately sent to the frontlines also meant men became scared and outraged. Many have bribed their way out of action by buying medical discharge papers at $10,000 a pop and have left the country. For good. And then there was the issue of not housing and taking care of displaced Ukrainians in free Ukraine who were lured back to their occupied home towns. "I need ammo, not a ride" was a long time ago.

I'm pretty sure Churchill was despised during the long course of World War 2 (certainly my grandparents weren't a fan) but History records him as the man who defeated Hitler.

I have nothing but admiration for the man but I am only a witness.

One day the pressure's on from America to use young men, or aid will be withdrawn. The next, a deal has been done with Russia, details to follow. "No need to get up Zelensky, we'll sort it."

I read too, apart from recruiting young men, Ukraine is taking pilots and medics in to the ground forces.

I hope Zelensky will be OK. I wonder if losing the fight would have been better for him than this deal.

(at looong last now Im home; really interesting stuff. Clever Ukraine, feeding disinfo to Russia from the traitor!)

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇨🇭 Switzerland announces a $1.6 billion support program for Ukraine for 2025–2028.
This initiative is part of a 12-year process aimed at Ukraine’s recovery, reforms, and sustainable development with Swiss assistance.
Since the start of the full-scale war, Bern has supported Kyiv in four key areas: humanitarian aid, reforms, diplomacy, and reconstruction.

🇨🇭 Switzerland joins the EU’s 15th sanctions package against Russia. [...]
Switzerland will no longer recognize Russian court rulings in disputes between Russian and Swiss companies, aiming to protect Swiss businesses from financial losses.
Additionally, regulations have been adjusted to allow Swiss companies to exit the Russian market without obstacles.
▪️On December 16, 2024, the EU adopted its 15th sanctions package, targeting a military unit responsible for shelling the Okhmatdyt hospital, top managers of Russia’s energy sector, and individuals involved in the deportation of Ukrainian children.

🇱🇻 Latvia will provide Ukraine with 42 armored personnel carriers.

🇵🇱Polish Foreign Minister: Europe needs autonomous military capabilities, developed with EU funding and industry.

⚡️ Arrest of the Head of the Anti-Terrorist Center Staff of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU): Intelligence reveals details of the operation.
The operation, named “Rat”, targeted Colonel Dmytro Kozyura, according to SBU sources. He had been under surveillance for an extended period, with his communications, correspondence, and contacts closely monitored.
🔵According to investigators, Kozyura organized a spy network for Russian intelligence. Its members collected information on Ukraine’s defense sector, including weaponry, critical infrastructure, and the impact of Russian strikes.
🔵Kozyura was recruited by Russia’s FSB in 2018 in Vienna. He remained a “sleeper agent” until December 2024, when the FSB reestablished contact with him.
🔵To communicate with Russian handlers, he used a safe house in Kyiv. He was given a special mobile phone, WiFi router, and SIM card, through which he transmitted classified information, including documents containing state secrets.
🔵Investigators documented 14 instances of espionage. However, the SBU has not disclosed full details due to the classified nature of the case.
🔵The SBU was aware of Kozyura’s actions. He was used to feed disinformation to Russia and was restricted from accessing genuinely sensitive data.
🔵His close relatives, including his parents, were aware of his activities. The SBU claims they justified Russian aggression and may have known about his collaboration with the FSB. They are expected to face charges for endorsing Russia’s invasion.
🔵Kozyura faces life imprisonment with asset confiscation. He has been charged with high treason.

Ukrainian commander Oleksiy Dmytrashkovskyy released recordings of talks with Apti Alaudinov (Chechen military commander, leader of the “Akhmat” special forces unit) about evacuating Sudzha’s civilians before the February 1 bombing
Ukrainian officer stressed the boarding school housed only civilians. Alaudinov admitted both he and Russia knew this. Despite that, Russia dropped a KAB bomb on the school, where about a hundred civilians were present

❗️Air defense forces shot down 85 out of 140 Russian drones, with 52 more lost from radar tracking
The attack affected Odesa and Kharkiv oblasts.

Shares of Russian companies surge after Trump’s call with Putin.

12 min interview with Keir Starmer on all of this: pca.st/episode/050a2e97-e165-4dd7-a0fb-097bbd0ce2e8

I'm finding it hard to read the news it very much smacks of Trump saying to Putin 'Do what you want with Europe, America doesn't care'.
Trump insisting on Ukraine handing over their rare earth minerals to the USA makes him almost as bad as Putin. And for what exactly is this huge concession being made? Trump hasn't given any indication that he is prepared to defend Ukraines freedom, quite the opposite - with no NATO membership, no American peacekeeping troops and no Article 5 in place for European peacekeeping forces. Trump has sold Ukraine out completely and utterly before the negotiations even begin.

I thought Dom on Ukraine the Latest was interesting today. He broke down the elements of Hegseth and Trump’s comments to point out a lot of it’s not new, he’s just saying it out loud:

• No return to pre-2014 borders, it’s unpalatable but this was said to be the US position behind closed doors for months. A return for example of Crimea was never really on the cards.
• NATO membership not on the table is nothing new, if it was truly ever on the table they would be far further through the process. Instead they’ve always fudged it with language like “when conditions are met” without specifying what those conditions are.
• No US troops, it was thought that this was always US policy, even under Biden.
• Article 5 not applying to peacekeepers is again in line with usual policy, remember the only time it’s ever been invoked was when US soil was directly attacked. Even when Russia used nerve agents on UK soil it wasn’t an article 5 trigger.
• Hegseth said that Europe could no longer rely on US conventional deterrence but that the US nuclear umbrella would still apply.

What their comments have removed is any useful ambiguity.

Part of an article in The Times today which spells out how far Ukraine and Europe have been sold down the river:

Trump's announcement came hours after Pete Hegseth, the new US defence secretary, said that Ukraine could not expect to regain territory lost to Russia either during the current war, or the Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Speaking at Nato headquarters in Brussels, Hegseth said that Trump “intends to end this war by diplomacy and bringing both Russia and Ukraine to the table. And the US Department of Defence will help achieve this goal.
“We will only end this devastating war and establish a durable peace by coupling allied strength with a realistic assessment of the battlefield.
“We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.”
The new Pentagon chief also scotched the idea that Kyiv might one day join Nato.
Trump made ending the war in Ukraine one of the cornerstones of last year's presidential election campaign, saying several times that he could find a solution within 24 hours of retaking the White House.
While the time scale may have slipped, his supporters will see Wednesday's announcement as vindication of Trump's strategy not to embroil the US in overseas conflicts. The US has spent more than $180 billion supporting Kyiv and its military since the war began.
Trump said that the US would seek to claw back the money given to Kyiv “in some form”. Last week, the president demanded access to Ukraine's rich deposits of rare earth minerals, crucial in high-tech electronics, as part of a security guarantee.
“We're asking for security on our money,” Trump said on Wednesday. “Ukraine has agreed to it.”
“We're putting up far more money than Europe and Europe is in far
more danger than we are,” the president continued. “We have an ocean in between, Europe has nothing in between. You know what they have in between? They have Ukraine in between.”
Trump said he had no plans to visit Ukraine but denied that Zelensky was being frozen out of the negotiations. He reiterated that Nato membership for Ukraine was off the table, however.
“I don't think it's practical,” Trump said.
Opponents fear that Putin is being rewarded for the invasion of his neighbour in February 2022, a resulting conflict that has cost an estimated one million lives.
Michael McFaul, the US ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014, said on X: “This is not how you negotiate with Putin.
“[Hegseth] has just articulated his administration's willingness to give Putin two giant victories — Ukrainian land and no Ukrainian membership in Nato. What did he get from Putin in return? Nothing.”
European countries, which have also spent billions propping up Zelensky's government and supporting its armed forces, appeared to be caught unaware of the discussion between the American and Russian leaders.
Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, said: “Peace can only be achieved together. And that means: with Ukraine and with the Europeans. We must take this path together so that peace returns to
Europe.”
Others went further, with the former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt comparing the decision to hold peace talks over Ukraine to the 1938 Munich Agreement, which sanctioned Nazi Germany's annexation of parts of Czechoslovakia.
“It's certainly an innovative approach to a negotiation to make very major concessions even before they have started,” Bildt wrote on X. “Not even Chamberlain went that low in 1938.”
John Healey, the UK defence secretary, said it was for Kyiv to decide the timing and terms of any negotiations on ending the war with Russia.
“It's the Ukrainians that are doing the fighting. It's for them to decide when to start talking and on what terms,” Healey told Sky News.
Penny Mordaunt, the former leader of the UK House of Commons, told Times Radio: “You also have to be wide-eyed to the fact that if you are ceding territory to an aggressor, that will be seen as rewarding the aggressor.”
Trump said that the agreement reached with the Russian leader was the start of a pragmatic solution to end the conflict.
Russian analysts said that Moscow was unlikely to accept any deal that did not include territorial gains for Russia.
“Make no mistake — Putin is fully prepared for these talks to fail. From the Kremlin's perspective, there is nothing the West can do that would reverse Russia's territorial gains and prevent Ukraine's collapse in the long run. With Trump's help, this process might accelerate; without Trump's help, it will still happen sooner or later,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russia political analyst, wrote on X.
“In the meantime, Putin will continue to flatter and appease Trump, offering concessions that Trump will portray as a HUGE SUCCESS and a WONDERFUL DEAL. But these con-
cessions such as a ceasefire will not deter Russia from its ultimate goal: securing a 'friendly' Ukraine on its terms.”

Europe needs its publics to understand and get behind a massive increase in defence spending beyond 2.5% We've been way too dependent on the US for security (and now energy), russia for energy and China for "stuff". And now all three are chewing Europe up. I'd like to see a coherent path forward made clear. In giving Putin what he wants (and with no involvement from Ukraine or any European countries) Trump has shown all of Europe how naked it is

Might makes right again. Putin gets Ukraine, China threatens Taiwan, Trump doesn't rule out military force in Greenland...It feels like we now have three autocrats carving everything up between them

For what it’s worth Trump has said Ukraine will be at the negotiating table.

He also plans to negotiate with China and Russia over denuclearisation.

I’d love nothing more than the UK and Europe to step up, but I just can’t see it happen to the degree that Ukraine needs. We’ve already got the rise of the far right in Europe, add in increased spending on Ukraine and that rise will escalate as people across Europe start to see a steep decline in living standards.
And the UK economy is on its knees. My DH is facing redundancy due to NI pressures and my job feels tenuous, plus the number of job vacancies last month dropped by a third.

Yes and all that is good but it's that sense of the big 3 ie great powers deciding the fate of others I meant. And a related feeling of Europe's decline and increasing geopolitical irrelevance.

Listening to him wittering in the Oval Office is excruciating. Saying Russia will never “let” Ukraine join NATO and that it was Biden’s fault that Putin had to invade because of Biden’s promise that Ukraine could join NaTO.

He’s just said Russia, Ukraine and the US are meeting in Munich tomorrow.

And now he wants Russia back in the fucking G7 (G8), he can honestly fuck off to the far side of fuck!

"Trump is doing Moscow's job of tearing the West apart." "All of Ukraine is Russian land."
How I hate their crowing. I bet Trump gets a guarantee from Putin that Ukraine won't be invaded while he's in office.
‘What Putin had been waiting for’: Moscow buoyant after call with Trump | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-12-2025

Key Takeaways:

• US President Donald Trump held bilateral phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 12.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev explicitly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's proposal to trade occupied Ukrainian territory for territory held by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast during future peace negotiations.
• Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) assessed that Russia may have the capabilities to launch a full-scale war against NATO in the next five years, which is consistent with ISW's assessments about Russian efforts to restructure and prepare its military and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long-term.
• The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) recently launched the "Contract 18-24" voluntary recruitment program aimed a recruiting 18 to 24-year-old Ukrainians into the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin held his first official call with Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara on February 12 since the fall of Russian-backed former Syrian President Bashar al Assad.
• The Armenian National Assembly approved a draft law in the first reading on February 12 to commence the process of joining the European Union (EU).
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Borova, Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Russia's Shahed drone production rate may be declining.

😓

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️US to hold meeting (kyivindependent.com/us-to-hold-meeting-with-russian-ukrainian-officials-on-feb-14-in-munich/) with Russian, Ukrainian officials on Feb. 14 in Munich.

⚡️US is Russia's 'main counterpart' (https://kyivindependent.com/us-is-russias-main-counterpart-in-talks-to-end-war-kremlin-says/) in talks to end war, Kremlin says.

'No talks with Russians planned in Munich' — Ukraine denies (kyivindependent.com/us-to-hold-meeting-with-russian-ukrainian-officials-on-feb-14-in-munich/) participation in US-Russia meeting on Feb. 14.

⚡️Russia should be readmitted (kyivindependent.com/russia-should-be-readmitted-into-g7-trump-says/) into G7, Trump says.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Feb. 13 that he would "love" to see Russia readmitted into the Group of Seven (G7), calling Russia's 2014 expulsion from the group a "mistake."

⚡️Ukraine’s possible territorial losses may be 'formalized without recognition by US,' Kellogg tells (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-possible-territorial-losses-may-be-formalized-without-recognition-by-us-kellogg-tells-fox-news/) Fox News.

⚡️ US aid to Ukraine could become 'carrot or stick (kyivindependent.com/us-aid-to-ukraine-could-become-carrot-or-stick-in-talks-with-russia-hegseth-says/) ' in talks with Russia, Hegseth says.

‘Totally screwed’ — How Trump, Hegseth are damaging (https://kyivindependent.com/totally-screwed-how-trump-hegseth-are-damaging-ukraine-in-talks-with-russia/) Ukraine in talks with Russia

⚡️ Plane malfunction (kyivindependent.com/plane-carrying-secretary-rubio-to-munich-returns-to-washington-due-to-malfunction/) forces State Secretary Rubio to return to Washington while en route to Munich Security Conference.
Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Feb. 14.

⚡️ Chornobyl Nuclear Plant shelter damaged (kyivindependent.com/chornobyl-nuclear-plant-shelter-damaged-in-russian-drone-strike/) in Russian drone strike.

⚡️Starmer reiterates UK's support (https://kyivindependent.com/starmer-reiterates-uks-support-for-ukraine-nato-member-following/) for Ukraine's NATO membership following US dismissal.

Following an attack on opposition, Zelensky effectively begins election season (kyivindependent.com/following-an-attack-against-on-opposition-zelensky-effectively-begins-election-season/)
Following a growing political activity inside the country, and the official pressure from the U.S. on Kyiv to hold elections by the end of the year, experts say that the informal election season has begun in Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine could hold elections being "in a strong position" after the "hot phase" of the war is over. He did not rule out that this could happen in 2025.

⚡️'Not very pleasant' — Zelensky comments (kyivindependent.com/not-very-pleasant-zelensky-comments-on-trump-calling-putin-first/) on Trump calling Putin first.
"I don't perceive this call as it was a priority that he (Trump) talked to Russia first. Although it's not very pleasant," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

⚡️'Putin is afraid of you' — Zelensky reportedly told (kyivindependent.com/putin-is-afraid-of-you-zelensky-reportedly-told-trump-during-phone-call-axios-reports/) Trump during phone call, Axios reports.

‘A push for Ukraine’s capitulation’ – Baltic, Eastern Europe react to Trump’s rush (kyivindependent.com/a-push-for-ukraines-capitulation-baltic-eastern-europe-react-to-trumps-rush-to-negotiate-peace-with-putin/) to negotiate peace with Putin

Europe can no longer view Trump’s foreign policy (kyivindependent.com/europe-can-no-longer-view-trumps-foreign-policy-through-a-binary-lens/) through a binary lens
“Like people in other regions, Europeans face the challenge of discerning what motives underlie U.S. President Donald Trump’s verbal provocations. After all, what Trump really wants is often unclear, which makes it difficult to devise a strategically effective response. Traditionally, Europeans have interpreted American foreign policy through a binary lens: either a U.S. administration is Atlanticist, in which case all is well (for the most part); or it is isolationist, which spells trouble. But Trump fits neither category,” Zaki Laïdi, a former special advisor to the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Policy and Security, in his op-ed.

⚡️ US judge orders temporary lift Trump administration's freeze on foreign aid (https://kyivindependent.com/us-judge-orders-temporary-lift-trump-administrations-freeze-on-foreign-aid/).
Judge Amir Ali issued the order in response to a lawsuit filed by the AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition and the Global Health Council.

⚡️European Business Association calls on Ukraine to declassify (kyivindependent.com/european-business-association-calls-on-ukraine-to-declassify-mineral-deposit-data/) mineral deposit data.
The European Business Association (EBA) urged the Ukrainian government to declassify its information on mineral deposit data, in a statement on Feb. 13.
The association argued that current restrictions hinder international agreements and discourage investment.

⚡️Ukrainian drones again hit (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-again-hit-oil-pumping-station-in-russias-tver-oblast-sbu-source-claims/) oil pumping station in Russia's Tver Oblast, SBU source claims.

A ‘very bloody war:' What is the death toll (kyivindependent.com/a-very-bloody-war-what-is-the-death-toll-of-russias-war-in-ukraine/)of Russia’s war in Ukraine?
After holding a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 12, U.S. President Donald Trump once again claimed the "horrible, very bloody war" in Ukraine had cost "millions" of lives.
But calculating the total number of deaths — both civilian and military — is complicated as Russia seldom comments on its battlefield losses, Ukraine has only recently begun releasing official information on its figures, and civilian deaths in occupied areas of Ukraine are largely unknown.

⚡️ EU cannot replace USAID funding but sees opportunity (kyivindependent.com/eu-unable-to-fully-replace-usaid-funds-aims-to-boost-visibility-kallas-says/) to boost visibility, Kallas says.

⚡️EU-Ukraine agri-trade reaches (kyivindependent.com/eu-ukraine-agri-trade-reaches-record-17-billion-in-2024/) record $17 billion last year

Agricultural trade between Ukraine and the EU reached $17 billion in 2024, exceeding the previous record of $16.5 billion in 2022 by 3%, the Kyiv-based research Institute of Agrarian Economics (IAE) reported.

Dmytro Kuleba: Trump’s rare earth deal risks Ukraine repeating (kyivindependent.com/dmytro-kuleba-trumps-rare-earth-deal-risks-ukraine-repeating-historys-mistakes/) history’s mistakes

⚡️European stock and currencies rise (kyivindependent.com/european-stock-and-currencies-rose-on-ukraine-peace-deal-hopes-reuters-reports/) on Ukraine peace deal hopes, Reuters reports.
Europe's main stock market and currencies are gaining amid growing optimism about a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, Reuters reported on Feb. 13.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE - FEB 14, 2025
■ Fewer engagements & casualties but massive equipment losses (7-day record)
■ Daily artillery record matched, 7-day vehicle & losses reach new heights
■ Notable 🇺🇦 strikes while 🇷🇺 ones are below average, improved strike ratio

US to hold meeting (kyivindependent.com/us-to-hold-meeting-with-russian-ukrainian-officials-on-feb-14-in-munich/) with Russian, Ukrainian officials on Feb. 14 in Munich.

I saw this reported yesterday but Sky and BBC are saying this morning that there is no Russian delegation in Munich and that Russian representatives would have been denied visas by the German govt so not sure what’s going on.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️Ukraine will not accept any bilateral peace talks without the participation of Ukraine and European partners, — Zelenskyy

A Russian strike drone with a high-explosive warhead hit the shelter protecting the world from radiation at the destroyed 4th power unit of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant last night, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported.
The shelter at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant was damaged. The fire was extinguished. Radiation levels remain stable and are being monitored. Initial estimates indicate significant damage to the shelter.

Putin's press secretary, Peskov, stated that Ukraine would take part in the talks to end the war.
"One way or another, of course, Ukraine will participate in the talks. Of course, there will be a bilateral Russian-American track of this dialogue, and a track that, of course, will be related to Ukraine's involvement," he said.

When we get everything sorted out, one of the first meetings I want to have is with Xi Jinping and Putin. And I want to say: Let’s cut our military budget in half,” US President Trump said during a press briefing at the White House, according to the Associated Press.
Trump also reiterated his desire to resume talks with China and Russia on reducing nuclear arsenals.

On Friday, Transnistria began receiving gas from a Hungarian company through Moldovagaz, paying for it with a Russian loan.
Until February 10, Transnistria received gas using the first tranche of European aid. After that, it refused further EU assistance and announced it would purchase gas with loan funds provided by Russia.

🇲🇩 The Moldovan Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador to protest the violation of its airspace by drones and demand explanations.

🚂 Russian oil companies are facing difficulties shipping oil products by rail, as Russian Railways is refusing to accept tanker shipments.
This threatens to disrupt supplies to the domestic market.

Near Moscow, on the territory of military unit 52116 in Dolgoprudny, two of Russia’s latest Valdai radar complexes were destroyed.
This system is a recent development of the Russian military-industrial complex and the first of its kind adopted by the Russian army.
An explosive device destroyed the two Valdai radar complexes, which were designed for round-the-clock automatic detection and counteraction of UAVs. https://t.me/United24media/29073