Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Just a quick update with the losses, hope that's okay.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE - DEC 23, 2024
■ 4th highest engagements & 3rd highest casualties
■ Record 7-day casualties, artillery systems targeted
■ KIU: +34 officers; 5.0 per day for last four batches ⬆
■ Janovsky: 55 🇷🇺 45 🇺🇦 added (incl. older), last 30 days 2.0x

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Germany provides Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/germany-provides-leopard-tanks-iris-patriot-launchers/) with 15 Leopard 1 tanks, 2 IRIS-T systems, 2 Patriot launchers.
Berlin supplied Ukraine with 15 Leopard 1A5 tanks, one short-range and one medium-range IRIS-T air defense system with missiles, two Patriot air defense launchers, and other aid in its latest delivery, the German government said on Dec. 23.

⚡️Satellite imagery suggests North Korea to supply more arms (kyivindependent.com/satellite-imagery-suggests-north-korea-to-supply-more-arms-to-russia-wsj-reports/) to Russia, WSJ reports.
North Korea appears to be preparing to supply more arms to Russia on top of some 20,000 containers it had already sent.

⚡️ Russian cyberattack: Breach occurred at 'top-level account,' MP says. (kyivindependent.com/recent-russian-cyberattack-facilitated-by-top-level-account-mp-says/)
Hackers could have used phishing or bribed employees to break into Justice Ministry registers during a Russian cyberattack last week, Oleksandr Fedienko, head of the parliamentary subcommittee on cybersecurity, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on Dec. 23.

⚡️Ukraine receives (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-eu86-million-from-eu-to-protect-energy-infrastructure-from-drones/) 86 million euros from European Investment Bank to protect energy infrastructure from drone attacks.

⚡️Over 3,000 North Korean troops killed, wounded (kyivindependent.com/over-3-000-north-korean-troops-killed-wounded-in-kursk-oblast-zelensky-says/) in Kursk Oblast, Zelensky says. This estimation, coming from Ukraine's intelligence, is a significant increase from other recent reports about the North Korean casualties.

⚡️North Korean troops deployed in Russia were Pyongyang’s idea (kyivindependent.com/north-korean-troops-deployed-to-aid-russia-at-pyongyangs-initiative-nyt-reports/), NYT reports.
While some Western officials viewed the arrival of North Korean soldiers as evidence of the Kremlin’s desperation, U.S. agencies reportedly say it was North Korea’s initiative.

⚡️EU to produce 2 million artillery shells (kyivindependent.com/eu-to-produce-2-million-artillery-shells-in-2025-new-defense-commissioner-tells-media/) in 2025, new defense commissioner tells media.
Europe is unlikely to ramp up weapons and ammunition production for Ukraine in the coming years, according to Andrius Kubilius, the newly appointed EU Commissioner for Defense and Space.

⚡️Ukrainian drones attack (kyivindependent.com/drones-attack-city-of-millerovo-in-rostov-oblast-acting-governor-says/) Russian city of Millerovo, Rostov Oblast, acting governor says.

⚡️Italy extends military support (kyivindependent.com/italy-extends-military-support-to-ukraine-through-2025/) to Ukraine through 2025.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Italy has delivered 10 military aid packages to Kyiv which have included advanced systems like the French-Italian SAMP/T air defense units.

⚡️First Ukrainian Legion unit trained in Poland deployed to Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/first-ukrainian-legion-unit-trained-in-poland-deployed-to-ukraine-ambassador-says/), ambassador says.

⚡️US plans to impose more sanctions (kyivindependent.com/us-looking-to-impose-more-sanctions-on-russian-energy-by-year-end/) on Russian energy by year-end, Ukrainian official says.

⚡️Ukrainian volunteers developing (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-volunteers-developing-more-powerful-model-of-trembita-missile-capable-of-reaching-moscow-the-economist-reports/) more powerful model of Trembita missile capable of reaching Moscow, The Economist reports.
The Trembita is significantly cheaper than Western or Russian cruise missiles, and operates like the V1 flying bombs used by Germany during World War II.

How Ukraine’s new drone-missile hybrids (kyivindependent.com/latest-ukrainian-rocket-drones-make-up-for-absence-of-locally-made-cruise-missiles/) are changing long-range weapon technology
Ukraine has turbo-charged its long-distance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), making “rocket-drones” to compete with cruise missiles or save the trouble of asking for more Western-made ranged weapons.

⚡️Ukraine to prohibit (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-ban-withdrawal-of-foreign-issuer-securities-amid-efforts-to-curb-currency-restriction-bypasses/) withdrawal of foreign issuer securities amid efforts to curb bypasses to currency restrictions.

⚡️Parliament proposes bill (kyivindependent.com/draft-bill-to-allow-male-students-to-travel-freely/) to allow male students free travel from Ukraine.
The Verkhovna Rada is drafting a bill that will allow Ukrainian students enrolled in universities abroad to freely cross Ukraine's borders. Once entering the country from abroad, most male students currently cannot leave Ukraine again.

⚡️47% of Ukrainians back NATO accession even if territories stay occupied (kyivindependent.com/47-of-ukrainians-back-nato-accession-despite-occupied-territories-survey-shows/), survey shows.

⚡️ More than two-thirds of Ukrainians favor idea of restoring nuclear arms arsenal, poll shows. (kyivindependent.com/73-percent-of-ukrainians-favor-restoring-nuclear-arms-arsenal-poll-shows/)
About 73% of Ukrainians supported the idea of Ukraine restoring its nuclear weapons, according to a poll published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on Dec. 23.
Around half of the respondents said they would support the development of nuclear weapons even at the price of losing Western aid and coming under sanctions.

Assassinations of pro-war figures seek to demoralize Russia, punish war criminals (kyivindependent.com/assassinations-of-pro-war-actors-seek-to-demoralize-russia-punish-war-criminals/)
Military officials, propagandists, and those seen as collaborators by Kyiv have been assassinated in Russia or the Ukrainian territories it occupies since the beginning of Russia's all-out war in 2022.
Analysts say that such assassinations aim to bring war to Russian territory, undermine the enemy's morale, and divert Russian troops and security personnel from the front line.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE - DEC 24, 2024
■ 2nd highest engagements to date, record 7-day casualties (avg rises above 1,800)
■ Special equipment, APV & tank losses well above average
■ MLRS strikes up between days but other 🇷🇺 indicators down, relatively few 🇺🇦 strikes

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery in Russia's Rostov region, one of the largest facilities of its kind, has completely ceased operations following a targeted attack by Ukrainian forces.
This joint operation, conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Navy, unfolded last Thursday. The attack strategy involved:

• SBU drones overwhelming the refinery's air defenses.
• Ukrainian jet missiles striking the facility, supported by drones, resulting in a powerful explosion.

The refinery previously processed 15,000 tons of oil daily, producing diesel and jet fuel critical for Russian military operations, including tanks, armored vehicles, and aircraft. The shutdown marks a significant blow to the enemy's logistical capabilities.

🚢 Russian Cargo Ship Ursa Major Sinks in the Mediterranean After Explosion
The Russian cargo ship Ursa Major sank in the Mediterranean Sea between the Spanish city of Águilas and the Algerian city of Oran following an onboard explosion.
Fourteen crew members were rescued and taken to Cartagena by the Spanish maritime rescue service, while two remain missing.

OSINT analysts speculate that the ship was likely involved in operations to evacuate Russian bases in Tartus and Hmeimim, Syria.

🇰🇵 North Korea Boosts Weapons Production and Supplies to Russia
North Korea is intensifying its weapons production, with approximately 200 munitions factories operating at full capacity, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing satellite imagery.
The country has already supplied Russia with around 20,000 containers of ammunition. These shipments include lower-quality munitions such as 122mm and 152mm shells, as well as advanced weapons like Hwasong-11 class ballistic missiles.

Lithuania Receives €15.4 Million from EU to Upgrade Border Surveillance Systems
The European Commission has allocated €15.4 million to Lithuania to modernize electronic surveillance systems at four border crossing points along its border with Russia, LRT reports.

Switzerland has aligned with the 15th package of sanctions against Russia and Belarus, demonstrating continued support for Ukraine.
The sanctions list now includes 54 individuals and 30 entities from multiple countries collaborating with Russia's military-industrial complex. Their assets have been frozen, further isolating them from international financial systems.
Additionally, Switzerland has adopted targeted financial sanctions against Belarus, intensifying pressure on Minsk for its role in supporting Russia's aggression.

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has accused Colonel General Alexey Kim, Deputy Chief of Russia's General Staff, of orchestrating the August missile strike on the Sapphire Hotel in Kramatorsk, which killed Reuters security adviser Ryan Evans and injured two Reuters journalists.

In Bratislava, a protest titled "Enough with Russia" took place outside the Slovak government building, sparked by Prime Minister Robert Fico's controversial visit to Moscow.

Well the evacuation from Tartus isn't going well is it?

The Sparta broke down and is making about 1 knot an hour, and the Ursa Major has sunk. Wonder what went down with it.

Update: now we know

Two of the 16 crew members are reported missing. The ship was reportedly transporting two 45-ton hatches for a nuclear reactor of an icebreaker and two Liebherr port cranes to Vladivostok.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Despite Russia's ongoing invasion, Ukraine remains one of the world's leading agricultural exporter.
www.kyivpost.com/post/44341

GOP Congress likely to soon focus on accountability for Ukraine aid.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44347

Australian government intervenes after Russians abuse an captured Australian volunteer on camera.
www.kyivpost.com/post/44383

The US will boost missile production, with some sent to Ukraine, the Pentagon reports.
A $253.7 million contract with Williams International will expand engine capacity for Harpoon, JASSM, LRASM, Tomahawk, and other precision weapons.

Germany has delivered another large package of weapons to Ukraine, which includes:
▪️ 15 Leopard 1 A5 tanks
▪️ 1 IRIS-T SLM air defense system and 1 IRIS-T SLS system
▪️ 2 PATRIOT launchers
▪️ 2 TRML-4D radars
▪️ 2 Gepard anti-aircraft systems
The package also includes missiles, drones, various types of ammunition, grenade launchers, and more.

With conditions improving on every metric, Ukraine's economy turns a corner.
www.kyivpost.com/post/44386

Despite western politicians' big talk, luxury items continue flowing into the hands of Russia's elite shopping sectors.
www.kyivpost.com/post/44336

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇬🇪President of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili stated in a video address that if an agreement with the ruling party “Georgian Dream” on new parliamentary elections is not reached by December 29, the country will move toward elections through the collapse of the regime.
Yesterday, a massive protest against “Georgian Dream” took place in Tbilisi. During Zourabichvili’s speech, her microphone was cut off, and internet and television broadcasts were disrupted.

🇧🇾 Belarusian self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko will run for president for the seventh time.
The presidential election in Belarus is scheduled for January 26, 2025.
Since 1996, Belarusian elections and referendums have not been recognized by the international community. The previous presidential election in 2020 led to massive protests.

Kim Jong Un has sent at least 10,000 troops to Russia, who have mostly joined Russian units conducting counteroffensive operations in the Kursk oblast.
American officials do not think Kim has received any immediate compensation from Russia for this “assistance.”
Instead, he likely expects Russia to repay him in the future by offering diplomatic support, assistance during crises, and access to technology.

Donetsk was once a flourishing city, hosting the UEFA EURO in 2012
Now, after the russian occupation, people are forced to scoop water from puddles. [dear god, is that really to drink? I can't see any other reason for it]
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/27497

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces are gradually advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk, but it remains unclear if Russian forces will be able to exploit these gains to envelop the town or if they intend to advance to the administrative boundary of Donetsk Oblast.
• It remains unclear which effort the Russian military command will prioritize, as Russian President Vladimir Putin may have tasked the Russian military with securing territorial gains rather than seizing significant settlements.
• The Russian military command appears to have split responsibility for the Pokrovsk direction between the Central Military District's 2nd and 41st combined arms armies (CAAs), and ISW has yet to observe significant Russian activity in the 41st CAA's area of responsibility (AoR).
• Decreased combat effectiveness among Russian forces may be slowing the rate of Russian advance in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Increased Russian armored vehicle losses over the last year, particularly among Russian units and formations that have been engaged in frontline combat for most of 2024, may be impacting Russia's rate of advance in certain sectors of the frontline.
• North Korea is reportedly planning to deploy more troops and weapons to Russia amid reports that over 3,000 North Korean troops have been killed and wounded in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin used his meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to advance Russia's campaign to undermine Western unity in supporting Ukraine.
• The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false flag in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria likely in a continued attempt to destabilize Moldova and hinder its integration into European Union (EU).
• Russian forces have reportedly withdrawn completely from most of their positions in Syria, including their base at Qamishli in northern Syria. (NOTE: A version of this text also appears in ISW-CTP's December 23 Iran Update.)
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin's "Time of Heroes" program, which aims to appoint Russian veterans into government positions, is already causing conflict between veterans and corrupt regional officials.

@notimagain you have got to look at this one.

Could it be fake?

https://x.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1871531106937548858

Can’t see anyway that would fly at all in that state - for example the whole back end of the rear fuselage, including all the tail surfaces, are literally bent out of shape or missing, as are big chunks of other control surfaces.

It may have ended up where it was as a result of an off airfield landing but I wonder if a lot of the damage has been sustained post that event.

You know what they say: if the pilot walked away, it was a good landing.

..well, yes…though the engineers get a bit hacked off if the aircraft can’t be used again……..

“Donetsk was once a flourishing city, hosting the UEFA EURO in 2012
Now, after the russian occupation, people are forced to scoop water from puddles. [dear god, is that really to drink? I can't see any other reason for it]”

Heartbreaking 😢 it was one of the most prosperous cities in Ukraine but look what ten years of living under russia have done to it. It doesn’t have drinking water supply of its own. Even when I lived there we had regular water shortages and scheduled water shut downs especially over the summer months. Nowadays they bring drinking water in barrels to distribute to residents for cooking but people collect puddle water to flush the toilets with.

Thinking of you and yours this Christmas, @Mb76 ; also @MMBaranova.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong , I know you now have many friends in Ukraine, so all best wishes to you and them.

I second Perking's post and sentiments.

Also, thanks to all who provide me with information on this thread, and food for thought.

@PerkingFaintly thankyou 🙏. I have been in touch with 3 of 4 families today and they are all struggling and just wanting it all to stop. One who needs our thoughts/prayers is a frontline volunteer, alone in hospital, essentially with nervous strain, his family have fled. I sincerely hope this is Ukraine's last Christmas at war and that Peace is secured in 2025.

Really hope the same

Happy Christmas everybody, I know we're all thinking of those in Ukraine today 🇺🇦

Wishing all Ukrainians peace this year. As soon as possible. 💞

And thanks to all thread contributors, wishing you all peace and joy. 💖

Found this Ukrainian film on iPlayer last night and watched it with DH. It's very much about war and the damage of war, especially the damage done to men. It's not a brilliant film but it's definitely worth watching and I felt for all the characters which was interesting because none of them are especially likeable and it's a bit stereotyped. Anyway just thought I'd share it.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001lsq9/homeward

Merry Christmas all. I see Putin is determined to leave Ukraine in the cold and dark on Christmas Day with a massive air attack. He’s a fucking animal!

Merry Christmas to all. Wishing for a peaceful day for Ukraine.

Putin and his war lords are less than animals. Praying for early peace and huge justice for Ukraine.

Best wishes and thanks to all.

A very merry Christmas to Ukrainians and supporters. Just treated myself to some drone, in honour of the day. There's nothing so festive as the defence of a free Ukraine.

Plus one to that..

Merry Christmas.

Wishing everyone a Merry and most of all peaceful Christmas!

@Mb76 I was thinking of your relatives last night. May God hold them in His hand, wherever they are now. (Sorry if you are not religious, but ... just thinking of them).

Just read on the news that a charity has brought 100 Ukrainian children and their guardians to Lapland for a Christmas break from bomb shelters. Others have been taken to Italy and Austria. Just wish more of the children were able to get this opportunity.