Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

“The Ukrainian army does not have enough strength to liberate Donbas and Crimea, but Ukraine cannot give up these territories. We can only rely on diplomatic pressure from the international community to force Putin to come to the negotiating table.” Zelensky said.

Four days after two decrepit Russian tankers broke apart on the Black Sea, oil continues to wash ashore, devastating around 40km of Russia's Krasnodar Krai coastline.
It's estimated that Russia is currently utilizing up to 600 of these hazardous "ghost tankers" globally.

Russians are now burning the faces off North Korean combat casualties in effort to hide origin.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44096

One Ukrainian Woman’s Innovative Use of Drones to Deliver Meals to Soldiers Fighting Putin
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44080

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine will receive 19 air defense systems from allies to protect critical infrastructure, NATO Secretary General Rutte stated.

“The Ukrainian army does not have enough strength to liberate Donbas and Crimea, but Ukraine cannot give up these territories. We can only rely on diplomatic pressure from the international community to force Putin to come to the negotiating table.” Zelensky said.

Trump's Special Envoy for Ukraine, Kellogg confirms that Russia is taking 5x more casualties than Ukraine.

Overnight, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Navy carried out a coordinated attack on the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery in Russia’s Rostov region — Kyiv Post sources
SBU drones first targeted the Russian air defense systems protecting the facility. This was followed by missile strikes on the refinery itself.
The attack caused a large-scale fire at the refinery. Preliminary reports confirm that the joint operation by the SBU and the Navy inflicted significant damage to the refinery’s production capabilities.

Four days after two decrepit Russian tankers broke apart on the Black Sea, oil continues to wash ashore, devastating around 40km of Russia's Krasnodar Krai coastline.
It's estimated that Russia is currently utilizing up to 600 of these hazardous "ghost tankers" globally.

German government approves the purchase of €20 billion in defense gear to bolster its long-neglected military.
www.kyivpost.com/post/44125

Ukraine Responds to Russia‘s Chemical Attacks: Assassination of General Explained
An explosion in Moscow eliminating Igor Kirillov, the head of the Russian Armed Forces’ radiation, chemical, and biological protection forces is a calculated response by Ukraine’s SBU.
www.kyivpost.com/videos/44111

With Russian influence and political dithering preventing Ukraine's allies from ending the block on giving full long range strike permissions, Ukraine's homegrown defense industry is beginning to fill the gap.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44103

Russians are now burning the faces off North Korean combat casualties in effort to hide origin.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44096

One Ukrainian Woman’s Innovative Use of Drones to Deliver Meals to Soldiers Fighting Putin
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44080

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Since the start of the full-scale war, 16 children have been killed, and another 88 have been injured due to mines and explosive devices [Not including occupied territories]

🇩🇪 Germany has doubled (www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-doubles-arms-exports-ukraine-halves-them-israel-2024-2024-12-18/) its arms exports to Ukraine this year while halving exports to Israel compared to last year.
Ukraine received weapons and military equipment worth €8.1 billion from Germany, compared to €4.4 billion last year. Exports to Israel dropped to €161 million from €326.5 million.

Syrskyi stated that he had no choice but to launch an offensive operation in the Kursk oblast, as the Russian army could have broken through into the Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts
He also believes this action weakened the offensive potential of Russian forces and reduced the intensity of their attacks, “with the exception of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.”

Last night, air defense forces shot down 45 out of 85 enemy drones, with 40 UAVs classified as “locationally lost.”

🇧🇾Since July, 351 Russian “Shahed” drones have entered Belarusian airspace, according to Belaruski Hajun

If Mark Rutte's promises of 19 air defense systems comes true, it would be a very good thing.

I’d absolutely agree that Ukraine needs to specify and lead the training they need because once you get other militaries involved it’s the same old same old I’m afraid….

Please forgive the cynicism but you’re always going to run into problems with:

Institutional inertia: “well we’ve always fought this way and we’ve never had problems with FPV drones”

Inter service rivalry: “The answer is more aircraft carriers and submarines”

The treasury: “we can’t afford to pay out a fortune on new anti-drone hardware”.

I’ll go to my death bed convinced several people I knew were killed early in Gulf War One because a certain military arm were absolutely convinced/blind/wouldn’t listen to many of the lessons the USAF learnt in Vietnam ( aka “not invented here”).

Ukraine needs help with training people to it’s own syllabus, it doesn’t need NATO deciding what the syllabus is.

Fuck me Putin is still wittering on!

@notimagain

’ll go to my death bed convinced several people I knew were killed early in Gulf War One because a certain military arm were absolutely convinced/blind/wouldn’t listen to many of the lessons the USAF learnt in Vietnam ( aka “not invented here”).

As a student of military history, I'd love to know what lessons you're referring to.

Apologies, as this is a bit of a derailing.

Quick detail:

I’ll just stick with my main gripe that I had, even before GW, informed on the basis of a few discussions with a handful of US aviators who had been in SE Asia:

Many in the RAF or the treasury got locked into a mindset, possibly based on having watched the Dam Busters too often, that the answer to pretty much any problem was to fly lower, rather than adopting a mix of tactics and/or looking really hard and spending money on a wider adoption of precision Guided weapons and standing off whenever possible.

The following paper might be of interest but I certainly don’t agree with all of it. Despite what the author implies the criticism of the JP233 weapon system that gets mentioned wasn’t confined to the media or the uniformed, I’ve heard some harsh words said about it by those who used it in theatre.

https://raf.mod.uk/what-we-do/centre-for-air-and-space-power-studies/aspr/apr-vol19-iss2-14-pdf/

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-18-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a chemical plant in Rostov Oblast on December 18.
• Ukraine's European allies continue to provide monetary and defense industrial support to sustain Ukraine's war effort.
• Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov heavily inflated alleged statistics about Russian territorial gains in 2024.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on December 18 that Russian authorities detained the suspect who planted the improvised explosive device (IED) that killed Russian Nuclear, Biological, Chemical Defense Forces (NBC) Head Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and his aide, Major Ilya Polikarpov, in Moscow on December 17.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Kreminna, and Pokrovsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is increasingly tricking conscripts into signing military service contracts to fight in Ukraine likely in an effort to generate more assault forces and maintain the tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine.

Oh that is gutting :(

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russian losses exceed (kyivindependent.com/russian-losses-to-surpass-1-million-in-months-exceed-750-000-uk-estimates/) 750,000 troops, expected to surpass 1 million within 6 months, UK estimates.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told EU leaders he plans to wait until U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office before deciding on an extension of the bloc's sanctions against Russia, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 19, citing undisclosed sources. https://kyivindependent.com/orban-to-reportedly-block-eus-russia-sanctions-extension-until-trump-takes-office/

⚡️ Russia captures 'Uspenivka pocket (kyivindependent.com/russia-reportedly-captures-uspenivka/),' Ukraine denies reports of failed breakout.

⚡️Zelensky meets (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-top-eu-officials-in-brussels/) top EU officials in Brussels, discusses 'just peace' approach.

⚡️ Putin acknowledges sanctions (kyivindependent.com/putin-acknowledges-sanctions-have-impact-on-russias-economy/) have impact on Russia's economy.
International sanctions are affecting growing prices in Russia, but there are also shortcomings by Russian authorities, Putin said during his annual press conference on Dec. 19, state news agency TASS reported.
"The sanctions are having an effect, but they are not of key importance," Putin said when talking about the surging inflation and prices in Russia.

⚡️Putin claims (kyivindependent.com/putin-claims-russia-achieved-its-goals-in-syria/) Russia wasn't 'defeated' in Syria.

⚡️EU leaders call for more military aid (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-leaders-call-for-more-military-aid-to-kyiv-vow-any-future-decisions-wont-exclude-ukraine/) to Kyiv, pledge Ukraine's inclusion in key decisions.

⚡️Putin says full-scale invasion (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-says-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine-should-have-been-earlier-says-hes-open-to-meeting-trump/) of Ukraine should have been 'earlier,' adds he's open to meeting Trump.

Ukraine won't extend Russian gas transit (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-wont-extend-russian-gas-transit-zelensky-confirms/), Zelensky confirms.

North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast boost Russia's manpower, despite vulnerabilities (kyivindependent.com/north-korean-troops-especially-vulnerable-to-drones-but-gaining-ground-in-kursk-oblast-experts-say/)

⚡️ Putin proposes to 'experiment' on Western air defenses by launching Oreshnik (kyivindependent.com/putin-on-oreshnik-kyiv/) at Kyiv.

⚡️Russian An-72 military transport plane damaged (kyivindependent.com/russian-an-72-plane-blows-up-near-moscow/) in blast near Moscow, Ukraine's intel claims.
A power unit of a Russian An-72 military transport plane blew up at the Ostafyevo airfield in Moscow Oblast last week, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on Dec. 20. The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims. @notimagain

⚡️ Ukraine's economy healthier that Russia's in some indicators, The Economist (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-economy-healthier-that-russias-in-some-indicators-the-economist-reports/) reports.
Ukraine's economy has adapted well to the realities of the full-scale war while Russia's economy faces increasingly unfavorable forecasts, The Economist wrote on Dec. 18.
Although Ukraine appears to be "winning the economic war against Russia," the outlet's analysis suggests that further development will depend on how Kyiv manages incoming challenges like workforce and resource shortages or Donald Trump's presidency.

⚡️G7 discusses slashing Russian oil price cap, (https://kyivindependent.com/g7-discusses-slashing-russian-oil-price-cap-complete-ban-bloomberg-reports/) complete ban, Bloomberg reports.
Discussions reportedly include lowering the current $60-per-barrel cap to approximately $40 or even implementing a complete ban on Russian oil supplies.

⚡️Denmark allocates $292 million to bolster Ukraine’s air defense (kyivindependent.com/denmark-allocates-292-million-to-bolster-ukraines-air-defense/), minister says.

⚡️ Russian cyberattack (kyivindependent.com/russian-cyberattack-targets-ukrainian-government/) targets Ukrainian government services.
Russia conducted a cyberattack on Ukraine's government services on Dec. 19, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration and Justice Minister Olha Stefanishyna said in a statement.
In the largest cyberattack in recent months, several government services were targeted, including state registers the Justice Ministry oversees.

Can Ukraine sustain its F-16 fleet if Trump halts US aid? (https://kyivindependent.com/can-ukraine-sustain-its-f-16-fleet-if-trump-halts-us-aid/)
Trump has made no public comments about the Ukrainian F-16 fleet, but his expected intent to reduce support for Kyiv and get his country "out" of the war poses a question: what will become of Ukraine's U.S.-made jets if Washington withdraws?

⚡️US reimposes (kyivindependent.com/nord-stream-2-registers-german-subsidiary-bringing-project-closer-to-certification/) sanctions on entities involved in Nord Stream 2 construction.

Moscow has already built a 40-kilometer-long segment [of ring road around Sea of Azov] between the Russian city of Taganrog and occupied Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, according to Putin. kyivindependent.com/russia-building-ring-road-around-azov-sea-putin-says/

⚡️Ukraine intercepts (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-intercepts-russian-sabotage-groups-attempting-to-push-towards-kherson/) Russian sabotage groups attempting to push towards Kherson.
Ukrainian soldiers repelled Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups as they were attempting to advance towards the city of Kherson overnight on Dec. 20, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.

⚡️ Ukraine's parliament passes bill (kyivindependent.com/parliament-passes-bill-dissolving-medical-commissions-after-corruption-scandals/) dissolving medical commissions after corruption scandals.
Starting Jan. 1, Ukraine will introduce new expert commissions in major hospitals for assessing people's medical status based on a new, "modern system," MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak said.

⚡️5 killed, 7 injured in fire at detention facility housing war deserters (kyivindependent.com/5-killed-7-injured-in-fire-at-detention-facility-housing-war-deserters-in-russias-sakha-republic/) in Russia's Sakha Republic.

⚡️Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-injure-over-past-day-3/) against Ukraine kill 7, injure 34 over past day.

https://kyivindependent.com/one-killed-one-in-captivity-the-tragic-story-of-two-brothers-forever-separated-by-russias-war/

⚡️ Update: 6 injured (kyivindependent.com/kryvyi-rih-residential-building-hit-in-russian-rocket-attack-victims-excavated/) in Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih.
⚡️ Update: Fires reported in 3 districts (kyivindependent.com/explosions-reported-in-kyiv-amid-russian-missile-attack/) of Kyiv following Russian missile attack.
⚡️ Update: 1 killed, 9 injured (kyivindependent.com/explosions-reported-in-kyiv-amid-russian-missile-attack/) in Russian missile attack on Kyiv, mayor says.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE - DEC 20, 2024
■ Record casualties (previous: 2,030 set on Nov 29)
■ Notable artillery & special equipment losses; vehicle, drone, APV & tank losses also above average
■ Increased 🇷🇺 air strikes, 🇺🇦 strikes in the double digits

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights From Putin's Speech

Peace talks, the experiment with "Oreshnik" and "goals of the "special operation": Putin held a direct line and a press conference on the results of the year.

On the Front:
▫️ Russia is advancing daily, gaining ground in square kilometers.
▫️ Ukraine is allegedly running out of willing fighters.
▫️ Putin claims the "SVO" should have started earlier with better preparation.
▫️ NATO countries are fighting Russia indirectly, with rising shell costs and strained budgets.
▫️ Russia's military strength and sovereignty have grown, with armed forces expanding to 1.5 million personnel.
▫️ The objectives of the "SVO" are being achieved, but no specific timeline was given for operations like in the Kursk region.

On Negotiations:
▫️ Russia is open to talks without preconditions, referencing the 2022 Istanbul agreement.
▫️ Putin questions the legitimacy of Ukraine's leadership, stating Russia will only negotiate with legitimate authorities.
▫️ Offers political asylum to Zelenskyy, claiming Russia does not refuse asylum requests.
▫️ Rejects a truce, advocating for peace with security guarantees for Russia.
▫️ Praises Chinese and Brazilian peace initiatives for being balanced.

On "Oreshnik":
▫️ Described as a modern weapon based on Russian developments, with no interception capability.
▫️ Claims it can bypass any existing defense systems, including THAAD, and is targeting Ukraine's military-industrial facilities.
▫️ Open to a "test" strike if Western forces concentrate air defense systems at a chosen location in Ukraine.

On Belarus:
▫️ Threats to Belarus that align with Russia's nuclear doctrine will be treated as threats to Russia itself.

Offers political asylum to Zelenskyy, claiming Russia does not refuse asylum requests.

Does this include a nice 15th floor penthouse apartment with a rooftop garden that has a low balcony railing?

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

⚔️ Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, in a telephone conversation with the British Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Tony Radakin, reported intense fighting and a recent escalation of the Russian offensive across several front-line directions.

Germany Delivers Sixth IRIS-T SAM System to Ukraine
According to the monitoring group German Aid to Ukraine, this aligns with earlier commitments to supply the sixth IRIS-T SLM battery, along with two additional IRIS-T SLS launchers, by the end of the year.

#BringLightBack to Ukrainian Children (u24.gov.ua/bring-light-back?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=media&utm_campaign=generators)
Over the past 3 years, Russia has launched thousands of missiles at Ukrainian infrastructure, depriving tens of thousands of children of the opportunity to study in a safe environment. Some of them have to learn during blackouts, with flashlights and forced school breaks in dark bomb shelters. Some of them can't learn at all, as their classrooms turn freezing cold. Generators can provide enough power for children to study in warm and lighted spaces.

Countries that have signed security guarantee agreements with Ukraine must clarify what they are truly ready to offer to ensure these guarantees are meaningful, EU foreign policy chief Kaia Kallas stated.

Ukraine is winning the economic war against Russia for the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion, The Economist reports.
Thanks to effective government policies and Western support, Ukraine's economy outperforms Russia's in key areas: GDP growth forecasts, a stable key interest rate of 13.5%, and the hryvnia's resilience.
However, challenges remain, including shortages of electricity, funds, and manpower.
In 2025, Western partners are expected to cover nearly the entire budget deficit. But if the United States withdraws its financial support, Ukraine could face significant difficulties in 2026.

Donald Trump and Olaf Scholz held a telephone conversation, agreeing on the importance of seeking a just and sustainable peace for Ukraine.

St. Nicholas Church and Toronto Business Center damaged in Russian strike on Kyiv
St. Nicholas Church is one of two Roman Catholic churches in Kyiv built before 1917.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russian dictator Putin proposed a daring “experiment” to the West: to choose a target in Kyiv, concentrate all air and missile defense systems there, and then allow Russia to strike it with “Oreshik” missiles.
“We are ready for such an experiment,” the dictator said.

President Zelensky refers to the aging Russian dictator as a "dumbass" after Putin threatens to launch his mythical "Oreshnik" missile onto the people of Kyiv, "to see what happens".

Russia loses yet another of their $16,000,000 Ka-52 attack helicopters due to friendly fire.
www.kyivpost.com/post/44152

Amidst a collapsing economy, and nine emergency central bank interest rate hikes, Putin attempts to calm the increasingly desperate Russian population.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44161

How worrying is this new Oreshnik missile? Any military posters have a view?

https://www.newsweek.com/what-oreshnik-putins-new-medium-range-ballistic-missile-hit-ukraine-1989974

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

This morning, Russian forces attempted an amphibious landing on the right bank of Kherson
Under artillery fire, two groups of occupiers tried to seize the area near the Antonivskyi Bridge on the right bank of Kherson but were destroyed while still on the water.

🇧🇪🇺🇦 Belgium will not be able to deliver F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of the year
This was announced (www.lesoir.be/643395/article/2024-12-18/les-quatre-premiers-f-35-aux-mains-de-pilotes-belges) by the Kingdom’s Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder, who cited a shortage of spare parts and a lack of trained pilots as the main reasons for the delay.
The delivery of new American F-35 fighter jets to Belgium, intended to replace its aging F-16s, is also delayed. Under the contract, the U.S. was supposed to deliver the first batch in 2023, but the timeline has been pushed back by a year.

Orbán’s relationship with Putin is too cozy for him to be a mediator — Zelensky
Zelensky added that Orbán has “no mandate for negotiations” and that his proposals “resemble political PR more than genuine mediation.”

Two explosions occurred near the base of Russia’s Northern Fleet.
Residents of Murmansk reported the incident, according to Agentstvo. Allegedly, an accident took place at one of the military facilities near the main naval base of Russia’s Northern Fleet in Severomorsk and at two military airfields.
The Norwegian publication The Barents Observer, which geolocated the explosion footage, reports that the military airfield “Severomorsk-1” is located 13 km from the site. This airfield hosts fighters, bombers, and a squadron of Ka-27 helicopters. An open weapons depot is situated 11 km away, and several installations with mobile anti-aircraft missiles and electronic warfare antennas are located northwest of “Severomorsk-1.”

A military transport aircraft, an An-72, exploded at an airfield near Moscow
The incident occurred on December 12 at the “Ostafyevo” airfield. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the An-72’s main power unit detonated. The estimated value of the aircraft is $4.5 million.

Overnight, air defense forces shot down 5 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 40 Russian drones.
In total, Russia launched the following against Ukraine:
🔴5 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
🔴1 Kh-59/69 guided air-launched missile
🔴65 attack drones
Debris caused damage to private and multi-story residential buildings, hospitals, warehouses, and farms in the Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kyiv, and Kharkiv regions.
Drones were intercepted over the Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, as well as in Russia’s Kursk oblast. Another 20 drones were classified as “locationally lost.”

Drone footage shows the destruction of the “Toronto” business center in Kyiv near the “Olimpiiska” metro station

Do we think Zelenskyy's admission and Trump's impending presidency is a coincidence? He has held strong until this point. I acknowledge the reality of the situation in Ukraine esp the shortage of men willing to fight but this has been a known factor for a long time.

And genuinely what planet is Putin on? Offering Zelenskyy asylum?

I don’t think there are many coincidences in geopolitics to be honest.

My biggest worry currently is that Trump accepts Putin’s suggestion of a high tech dual 😂

@Igotjelly I know, both as loony as each other.

It doesn't appear to be any more of a threat than the ballistic missiles they already possess and are using.

Keep in mind that Russia has limits on how many missiles they can make. That's why they're buying Iranian and NK missiles. So if they start making these, they'll make fewer of their other missile types.

Agree, they did a bit of a deep dive into it on Ukraine the latest and the sense is it’s just a new name for an older missile that’s been in production for a while and doesn’t represent new tech. They reckon they won’t use it on Kyiv because they don’t want to risk the Ukrainians downing it.

Equally a couple of days ago the ISW did a bit of analysis of Putin using it as a sort of off ramp from his nuclear rhetoric.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-putin-zelenskyy-kremlin-frontline-live-sky-news-latest-12541713?postid=8807009#liveblog-body Shitebags rowing back, must be worried Trump will say ‘aye go on then’ 😂

@MissConductUS what are the impacts on Ukraine of a US Govt shutdown?

There will be no impact. The military isn't affected, other than civilian DoD personnel being temporarily put on furlough. So, any arms shipments, intelligence sharing, getting advice on how to fire a dodgy Javelin, etc., will be unaffected.