Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) killed Russian Nuclear, Biological, Chemical Defense Forces (NBC) Head Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and his assistant, Major Ilya Polikarpov, in Moscow on December 17.
• The Kremlin and Russian propagandists overwhelmingly attempted to frame Kirillov's assassination as an unprovoked terrorist act, rather than a consequence of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Kirillov's responsibility for Russian chemical weapons attacks and information operations against Ukraine.
• The Russian ultranationalist information space overwhelmingly called on the Kremlin to retaliate against Ukraine by targeting its military-political leadership and indirectly criticized the Kremlin's decision to not recognize the war in Ukraine as a full-scale war that also impacts the Russian rear.
• US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby confirmed on December 16 that North Korean forces are engaged in combat operations and suffering losses in Kursk Oblast as Russian official sources continue to avoid reporting on or confirming the deployment of North Korean forces to combat in Russia.
• Neither the Kremlin nor the interim Syrian government appear sure of the future of Russian bases in Syria, likely accounting for Russia's continued visible preparations at Hmeimim Air Base and the Port of Tartus to withdraw forces despite claims and reports that the interim Syrian government might extend Russian basing rights. [see images below]
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin is scaling up the intended effects of its "Time of Heroes" program, which aims to install Kremlin-selected veterans into government officials, by tasking Russian regional governments to create more localized analogues.

The first image is Russian Il-76 transport aircraft and military vehicles on the tarmac at Hmeimim Airbase, Syria on December 15, 2024.

The second image is Russian military vehicles assembled at the Port of Tartus on December 17.

I just want to tell people whom I have regularly thanked for their kind efforts in keeping us informed from the various sources, that I am no less grateful to them but I cannot bring myself to use garish emojis to say so, and anyway can't work out which of the ones in the 2react" button is supposed to mean what. And I can't very well quote every post and write "thanks" as a reply to it. So this post will just have to be a sort of blanket "thanks" to all.

Eww, yes, what's happened to the nice "Thanks" button? I don't understand what each one is supposed to mean.

(Although presumably "heart" means "I love it". Except when it doesn't.)

I hadn’t even noticed the wee button had changed! I don’t want Social Media type likes 😭

Can other people see the reactions?

I just ❤️ this post to test. Can others see this?

No. Don’t think others could see thanks either besides those who thanks were addressed to?

The thanks button is still there by selecting the 👏 emoji.

<I am over-invested in this>

That is not the thanks button. It's a blasted emoji.

Sorry, to all I've emojied, I couldn't resist.

Zelenskyy has admitted that Ukraine cannot push Russia out of Crimea and the East and has said diplomacy is the only avenue left to them https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-putin-zelenskyy-moscow-kremlin-kyiv-frontline-pokrovsk-live-sky-news-latest-12541713?postid=8803651#liveblog-body

This actually makes me really sad.

Thanks, @blueshoes .

This actually makes me really sad.

I am beyond heartbroken for Zelensky and Ukraine at the thought of what they have to scale back.

I’ve been thinking about these drones again. I wonder how many of the reports etc have come from outside of the US. Maybe the Kremlin has a whole drone reporting unit! It feels far more likely that Russian information ops are trying to spread mass hysteria and undermine trust in authorities than they’re actually flying drones about the US.

Tbrow in a few hobbyists and genuine sightings along with lots of misidentification and you have yourself a pretty successful hybrid warfare example.

Not that I would put that on the drone thread……

Very wise…

Home grown sources such Fox News seem to be the go to for many people when it comes to this topic and seem to be the biggest abusers when it comes to using misleading/ambiguous imagery so there’s no need to think there’s ……..Oh hang on.

I can't believe we're allowing it.

No words.

The Times tomorrow says we could be going to Ukraine to train their troops.

Aren't the best people to train them, those we trained and then fought in Ukraine?
They will know what worked or not and what can be improved etc. They haven't always been complimentary of NATO training methods as they know their enemy so well.
If though, we are testing Putin's red line to boots on the ground? Zelensky's talking to Macron as well. Can I hope, just a little?

Agree. I liked the ‘thanks’ button but detest (okay bit of strong sentiment but I’m in a mood) this new choice to ‘react’ with bloody emojis. We’re not all teenagers looking for likes to validate ourselves ffs.

Edited to add the insult to injury is seeing emojis on a thread like this one where we acknowledge tragedy has and continues to unfold at unimaginable scale but we’re meant to have a heart emoji or clapping hands? The simple ’thanks’ was far more dignified and appropriate. Sigh.

The aim needs to be keeping what is left of Ukraine in a strong position, holding out long enough for the Russian economy to collapse. We really need that to happen this year. Then pushing them out is possible

Speaking previously of Steve Rosenberg I always have a new found admiration for him when he sits for 4 hours through Putin’s annual Q&A 😂 legitimately taking one for the team!

@PiggyPigalle very good point there about the NATO training and what works for Ukraine and what doesn't.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia fails (kyivindependent.com/russia-fails-to-breach-ukraines-defenses-syrskyi-says/) to breach Ukraine's defense lines in simultaneous attacks, Syrskyi says.
Russian troops have intensified attacks in several areas along the front line over the past few days, but failed to break through Ukraine's defense lines, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Dec. 19.

⚡️ At least 100 North Korean soldiers killed, 1,000 wounded in Russia-Ukraine war, South Korean official says. (https://kyivindependent.com/at-least-100-north-korean-soldiers-killed-seoul-says/)
1,000 of Pyongyang's soldiers have been injured, South Korean MP Lee Sung-kwon told reporters, connecting the high casualty rates to the lack of experience with terrain and drone warfare.

⚡️ Peace talks with Russia only possible when Moscow runs out of resources (kyivindependent.com/peace-talks-with-russia-only-possible-when-moscow-runs-out-of-resources-ukraines-yermak-says/), Ukraine’s Yermak says.

⚡️EU does not expect (kyivindependent.com/no-eu-troops-in-ukraine-for-now-costa-highlights-integration-efforts/) Ukraine war ceasefire, peace talks in near future, EU official says.

⚡️ US may not be able to send remaining $5.6bn in military aid (kyivindependent.com/us-may-not-be-able-to-send-remaining-5-6bn-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-before-trump-takes-office-nyt-reports/) to Ukraine before Trump takes office, NYT reports.
The outgoing Biden administration plans to allocate funds, but is unlikely to spend the whole amount.

⚡️World Bank approves over $2 billion (kyivindependent.com/world-bank-approves-over-2-billion-in-funds-for-ukraine/) in funds for Ukraine.
The funding includes a $1 billion grant from the new $20 billion U.S. loan backed by frozen Russian assets. Another $1.05 billion is supported by the U.K. and Japan.

⚡️Two EU accession clusters for Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/two-eu-accession-clusters-for-ukraine-to-open-in-first-half-of-2025-eu-official-says/) to open in first half of 2025, EU official says.

⚡️Ukraine won't limit (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-wont-limit-its-army-zelensky-says/) army's strength as part of potential peace talks, Zelensky says.
Ukraine will not agree to reduce its Armed Forces even if Kyiv receives an invitation to join NATO, Zelensky told journalists in Brussels overnight on Dec. 19, according to a Kyiv Independent reporter.

⚡️Ukraine 'discussing ideas' with European leaders on potential peacekeeping (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-working-through-details-with-european-leaders-for-possibility-of-peacekeeping-force-zelensky-says/) force, Zelensky says.

According to media reports, [the latest US] package includes over 92 million pound ($115 million) in equipment to support Ukraine's navy, including small boats, as well as reconnaissance drones. A further 39 million pounds ($49 million) will be used to supply over 1,000 counter-drone electronic warfare systems. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-announces-283-million-military-aid-package-for-ukraine/

⚡️ North Korea producing missiles for Russia's use in Ukraine within months, researcher tells UN. (https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-producing-missiles-for-russia/)
North Korea is producing ballistic missiles for use by Russia against Ukraine faster than previously thought, Jonah Leff, the executive director at the independent Conflict Armament Research (CAR) group, told the U.N. Security Council on Dec. 18.

⚡️‘Not a good idea’ — Trump's peace envoy nominee criticizes Russian general assassination (kyivindependent.com/not-a-good-idea-trump-peace-envoy-criticizes-russian-lieutenant-assassination/).

⚡️Zelensky, Macron discuss possibility of peacekeeping force (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-macron-discuss-possibility-of-peacekeeping-force-in-ukraine/) in Ukraine.

⚡️ Intercepted Russian phone call suggests North Korean troops suffering trainloads of wounded (kyivindependent.com/intercepted-russian-call-suggests-north-korean-troops-suffering-trainloads-of-wounded/).
In the call, a nurse at a Moscow hospital tells her husband, a soldier fighting in Kursk Oblast, that wounded fighters are being brought in by the trainload.

⚡️ Ukraine delivered 200,000 domestically-produced drones (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-delivered-200-000-domestically-produced-drones-to-front-line-units-so-far-in-december-umerov-says/) to front-line units so far in December, Umerov says.

⚡️One of Russia's largest chemical plants (kyivindependent.com/one-of-russias-largest-chemical-plants-reportedly-hit-in-attack-on-rostov-oblast/) reportedly attacked in Rostov Oblast.
The attack struck the Kamensky Combine, a chemical plant that produces rocket fuel for the Russian military, according to Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's counter-disinformation center.

⚡️Sweden 'does not exclude (kyivindependent.com/swedish-defense-minister-does-not-rule-out-eu-nato-troop-presence-in-ukraine/)' more direct physical presence in Ukraine to bolster defense

⚡️25% of Russian malls may face bankruptcy (kyivindependent.com/quarter-of-russian-malls-may-face-bankruptcy-by-2025-report-warns/) in 2025.

A shake-up in Ukraine’s drone buying alarms corruption watchdogs (kyivindependent.com/a-shake-up-in-ukraines-drone-buying-alarms-corruption-watchdogs/)
The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers discreetly dethroned the former czar of drone purchases — Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov — as the result of a one-sided power struggle from the Head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak, allege observers.

⚡️Russian bombers detected (kyivindependent.com/russian-bombers-approach-alaskas-air-defense-zone-norad-says/) in Alaskan air defense zone.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) reported on Dec. 18 that it had detected and tracked four Russian military aircraft operating within the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). The planes remained in international airspace.

⚡️Russian hockey player sentenced to prison in Poland for spying (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-hockey-player-sentenced-to-prison-for-spying-in-poland/).

⚡️ Russian attacks kill 1, injure 8 (kyivindependent.com/attacks-114/) in Ukraine over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE - DEC 18, 2024
■ Casualties stay high despite fewer engagements
■ Drone interceptions above the 7-day average
■ Fewest 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes in over 30 days but strike ratio stays unfavorable

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine has received €4.1 billion from the European Union under the Ukraine Facility program, according to the Ministry of Finance.
These funds will address priority needs in the social and humanitarian sectors. Of the total, €1.5 billion is in the form of grants.
The Ukraine Facility program has allocated approximately €12.5 billion in financial support for Ukraine in 2025.

🇬🇧 British Defense Secretary John Healey is visiting Kyiv.

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong has arrived in Kyiv.

🇫🇷🇺🇦 France will train another brigade for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, President Zelenskyy announced after his meeting with Macron.

The United States believes that the assistance provided to Ukraine will be sufficient for its defense until the end of 2025, according to State Department spokesman Matthew Miller
In addition, the U.S. has contributed $20 billion to a special World Bank fund for Ukraine and plans to provide over $440 million to support agriculture, reconstruction, and the broader economy.

❗️ Britain will provide Ukraine with an additional defense package worth £225 million ($286 million) to support its fight against Russia, according to Reuters.
Details of the package:
▫️ £92 million – For naval equipment, including small boats, reconnaissance drones, unmanned surface ships, munitions, and mine-clearing drones.
▫️ £68 million – For air defense, including radars, ground-based camouflage, and electronic warfare systems against drones.
▫️ £26 million – For support and spare parts for previously supplied systems.
▫️ £39 million – For over 1,000 electronic warfare systems targeting drones, along with respirators and other protective equipment for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Ukraine has urged its allies to maintain support both on the battlefield and diplomatically as the war nears its third year. Along the 1,170 km front line, Ukrainian forces face significant challenges, being both exhausted and outnumbered.
Britain has also pledged to expand military training for Ukraine.

British Defense Minister John Healey has suggested the possibility of sending British soldiers to Ukraine as instructors, The Telegraph reports.