I’m scared now I’ve realised this

[Pickandmixmood]

I was thinking that the US public wouldn’t vote for Trump now that it is so apparent he is such a fascist. It’s terrifying to realise that they already know that and that is why they are going to vote for him.
I’m scared for the world.

Some people are voting against Kamala. The cheek of the democrats to say Trump is senile and with dementia after inflicting Biden on us.
Also, you are a bit dramatic as Trump was in government before and nothing happened to the rest of the world.
What I find really sad is the division between people in the US. The entire campaign of Kamala is I am not Trump and nothing else. The Democrats are responsible for this too. Looking at you Obama.

It’s not hard to grasp that that is what women are doing with their votes.

What‘s harder to grasp is the suggestion from the cartoon that women are liberating themselves by doing so. Doing it in secret and continuing to be oppressed by their husbands and the state legislature of the state they live in is the reality.

Trump is a congenital liar. He’s promised all kinds of contradictory things.

If a Republican Congress decides to restrict abortions nationally, I don’t see him vetoing their legislation. Importantly, Trump can also create an atmosphere encouraging more states to enact restrictive laws

As I stated above, in following American news rather closely (because I have citizenship) I have seen virtually no discussion of transgender issues and an American PP validated this. They aren’t unimportant but they aren’t a top priority for most. Discussion is mostly confined to the extremes.

Of course he’s a liar. Which means his commitment to curtailing abortion is just as shaky.

If a Republican Congress decides to restrict abortions nationally, I don’t see him vetoing their legislation. Importantly, Trump can also create an atmosphere encouraging more states to enact restrictive laws

You are correct. And Harris as president could be a stop gap against a Republican Congress this is true. Is it likely she’ll do anything else other than stop it getting worse, though?

I have seen virtually no discussion of transgender issues and an American PP validated this

What’s interesting is Harris hasn’t brought up. Trump has. Harris knows it’s a vote loser, that’s why. Tell people at a rally in Pennsylvania and Michigan that men and boys can play women’s sport, or it’s ok to lock up rapists in prisons with women? She wouldn’t dare.

Yet that’s what she believes.

If you follow Harris’ actions she is quite pragmatic. Health care and particularly women’s health care is one of her few sincere long term passions. She traces this in part to her mother’s death from cancer when she wasn’t very old and could perhaps have had better care

Yes, I believe that Harris will propose a law enshrining abortion rights nationwide. But only Congress can pass it, and a Republican one won’t unless they perceive that their jobs are on the line. Remember, these are the people who scuppered the bipartisan immigration bill that they wrote because Trump told them to. He wanted to foment immigration problems ahead of the election.

Regardless of Harris’ views about gender, I don’t see her wasting political capital on such a divisive issue. She is too pragmatic

Yes, I believe that Harris will propose a law enshrining abortion rights nationwide. But only Congress can pass it, and a Republican one won’t unless they perceive that their jobs are on the line

I think it’s wishful thinking she’ll propose any such law. Clinton, Obama, Biden didn’t, and Harris didn’t in her position as VP. And if she does, it has no chance of passing. And if it passes, it will be challenged and go to SCOTUS.

Best that can be hoped for is a couple of seats on SCOTUS come up in her potential four year term. Which is unlikely.

Regardless of Harris’ views about gender, I don’t see her wasting political capital on such a divisive issue. She is too pragmatic

Well that’s just it, isn’t it? She doesn’t want to draw attention to the fact she believes in diminishing the rights of women and girls in the area of gender, and she supports the medical transition of children and men in women’s prisons. Of course it’s pragmatic to not draw attention to beliefs and policy history that could lose votes.

In the same way Trump may have lost the Puerto Rico vote, Harris could have easily lost the vote of anyone playing college sport, or have a child who might be, or someone whose child has been socially transitioned behind their backs.

There are an estimated 230,000 female NCAA athletes, the majority I imagine want their sport to be single sex. Given there will only be a few thousand votes in the final outcome, she’s done well to keep quiet on something that could swing these voters.

If Harris is successful, those who vote for her can’t complain when she enacts policies that will negatively impact their rights in areas other than abortion.

Given there will only be a few thousand votes in the final outcome

Really?! Prepare to be surprised.

Do you think Harris will win key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc easily?

It was only 77,000 votes spread out over three states that won it for Trump over Clinton.

It was only 44,000 votes spread out over three states for Biden over Trump. Remember that’s 44,000 votes, which means if 23,000 decided to vote the other way, Trump would have been reelected. In Georgia, that was just 6000 people voting the other way.

The final state certified margin of victory for Bush over Gore in Florida in 2000 was 537 votes.

I am not sure how anyone can be confident of a surprising easy victory for Harris. She might win, but it will be a small margin.

We shall see.

https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-chances-polls-1978774

Nate Silver’s take.

The Silver Bulletin, which weights reliable polls more heavily, had Harris in the lead with 48.5 percent, over Trump's 47.4 percent, as of Thursday.

But it also put Trump in the lead in five of the seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
However, Silver wrote: "While Trump made meaningful gains in our forecast in mid-October, we don't think there's much sign that the race is continuing to drift toward him in the final week and the seven most important swing states remain incredibly close."

538, who Nate Silver established and used to be part of, has Trump with a 51% chance of winning.

Despite close polls, historian Allan Lichtman says Harris to win

They are also saying it might not be close. They are saying Harris could win comfortably.

But they’re also saying Trump could win comfortably 🤣

https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-harris-normal-polling-error-blowout/story?id=115283593

And by “comfortably”, they mean win the electoral college vote comfortably, which could still mean each state is only decided by a few thousand votes in each of those states. Trump or Harris could win seven swing states by several thousand votes only, which would look like a “comfortable” electoral college vote win.

The best election analysts in the US are having a hard time making a clear call, are at pains to point out the error rate of polls can be high, and are repeatedly finding their models predict both of them winning at any given time. So anyone predicting the outcome with confidence is brave, on shaky ground, or wishful.

And it’s because of this, it’s no wonder Harris hasn’t stood at a rally in Atlanta, Detroit or Philadelphia and proclaimed “Trans Women are Women and deserve to be in women’s sport!” 🤣

There’s nothing in that article, nor the linked article within it about his 13 keys, to suggest the outcome won’t still be decided by just several thousand voters in key states, which you said I should be prepared to be surprised about. He may be right in his prediction and his modelling, but it still only matters what those thousands in key states vote. The last two elections have been decided by less than 0.02% of the entire population of the US.

To be surprisinlgy wrong about my prediction, Harris would need to win those key states by comfortable margins. Is that likely?

Because in spite of everything you read on here and everywhere else women's reproductive rights just weren't important enough.

Obama broke election promises. Biden failed to act when it was pretty clear this would happen.

Women’s reproductive rights and health only seem to be important when it’s politically convenient.

I wonder if it’s because there some anti-abortion Democrat voters that the party doesn’t want to lose?

Catholics come to mind, but they've leaned democrat for decades despite the abortion issue.

There are anti abortionists across the political spectrum.

I find it interesting that they are using this as an election headline, they can do it to avoid the other women and children's rights issue and claim they are pro women.

I find it really gross that the Dems are constantly campaigning on abortion.

Something feels really ick about it. I know I am from an older generation (50 yo) but it was always something that was very private and just 'understood', and not shouted about. It has also changed from pro-choice to a straight out 'pro-abortion'. I find that term really grating, I am not sure many people are PRO abortion really, they just understand the need for it. Being PRO it, is a bit odd.

Anyway, I really hope this strand of politics doesn't come to the UK, I think our laws are just fine.

That's why there is all the shouting - Roe v Wade said exactly that, it's a private decision between a woman and her doctor.
And it's the forced birthers who call it pro-abortion.

I think it is highly likely she will flip several states, quite separately from some of the key swing states.

Whether or not you deem that "highly likely" is another thing.

Only Biden is of relevance for Harris. The Executive Branch can only propose bills to Congress, who are the only ones who can write them up and vote them into law.

Historically this is led by the President. In a brief search I cannot find any example of a VP leading on such a proposal - if you can give me a source I would appreciate it. Biden is a devout Catholic. For his condemnation of the overturn of Roe v Wade and his defence of women’s right to choose, a number of US bishops have called for his excommunication. His administration was never going to go further. He walked a delicate line, fairly admirably in my view - if you think about his perspective. (I remain very critical of him for colluding with Clarence Thomas against Anita Hill back in the day, however).

I stand by my hopes for KH stated above.
And I don’t care nearly as much about what people (claim to) believe as about what they do. Except for my nearest and dearest.

Either BBC1 or C4 recently did a segment with some NCAA Division 1 female athletes at a major campus. Almost all of them said that women’s reproductive rights were the single most important issue for them and that they would be voting for Harris.

This is consistent with my intuition from teaching at a large American university with top male and female athletics programmes for about 15 years.

I would love to make a good natured bet with you about the female college athlete vote, but unfortunately we have no way to isolate it!

PS @NotBadConsidering I think you are correct that the current SCOTUS would strike a national pro choice law, however.

"I have seen virtually no discussion of transgender issues and an American PP validated this"

Trump is running a quite shocking (to me as a Brit) tv ad campaign on this issue.

I have a recording of one but I can't post a video here.

Basically it goes:
Kamala will give men in prison trans surgeries- clip of Kamala promising this for every trans prisoner.
Black talk show men discussing this and laughing how ridiculous it is.
Kamala wants men playing women & girls sport. Accompanied with footage of the giant man on the girls basket bell team.

Kamala won't do anything different to Biden.

"Kamala is for they them (pics of Levine and the airport women's luggage thief) Trump is for you"

This add was on a very heavy rotation. Watching around 8 hours of Atlanta tv shows I must have seen it at least 30 times.

Gross. But it sounds like preaching to the converted, on par with his other ads