Who will win US Election - Gut feelings

[EveryBiteinBangkok]

I have been half following online and media coverage of the US Election. It is getting close now. What is your gut feeling on who is going to win?

About a month ago, I felt fairly confident that Kamala Harris would win (who I want to win). Now though I am not sure and the amount of rumour and almost conspiracy around it online seems to be reaching fever pitch.

If you had to place a bet (grand national style) who would you go for?

The dictators Trump admires so much know how easy it is to manipulate him with a little flattery. That will be disastrous for the countries bordering Russia.

Trump is clearly tired, declining mentally and terrified of going to prison. If he wins, how long is he likely to stay in power? He's far from healthy, almost 80, so quite possibly could die in office. If his mental decline accelerates even faster could he be levered out by Vance/Don Jr?

Whatever the outcome, the prospects don't look good for the US.

Ds is following the campaigns & has predicted 53:47 to Kamala Harris, he knows more about American politics than I do. He was pretty accurate in the seats for our GE. I hope Kamala wins, I dread to think what would happen if Trump won, he gets more crazy with every rally or interview & the thought of him being in charge of the nuclear button really worries me, I don't think he is mentally capable of lasting 4 years, they really should put in a rule that candidates should be under 70, Biden was too old to stand last time & the Democrats really should have chosen someone else. Everyone else forgets that Kamala was really thrown in at the deep end with no time to prepare while Trump has in effect been campaigning for the last 4 years, yes, she has struggled at some of the rallies when making speeches but she will be better than Trump.

Trump and that’s a very bad thing, I think!

If Trump wins are we taking bets on how long Vance will give it before he stabs Trump in the back and declares him mentally unfit for office?

I hope your DS is right. We live in Canada but regularly come over the border. We were recently in Texas at a wedding - the extreme views held by some Trump supporters was quite scary!

I can definitely see Vance wanting that, but I'm not sure he'd succeed. Trump is far too vain to stand down voluntarily. Plus if he did then the clock would start ticking again on all the court cases.

If Vance tried a 25th Amendment case then he'd be up against the personality cult Trump has built up around him. I'm sure most other GOP politicians would gladly see the back of Trump but the legions of flag-bedecked MAGA cultists are another matter. They'd see it as a betrayal of their god king and it wouldn't go well for the GOP in the polls. They might even be looking at another Jan 6.

Really, Vance's only hope would be if Trump dies in office. Given his age and general health that's not bad odds, admittedly.

Let's just say, if Trump is smart, they'll leave the inauguration in separate cars 😅

(not that he's smart, but he does seem to have some animal sense of self-preservation)

That tells us all- have you seen the state of Sanfrancisco & parts of California.. high drug rates, homelessness, shoplifting crime, shops & businesses going to the wall because of that.
Then you have all that gender stuff going on.
God no wonder Elon moved to Texas

The thing is, the margin of error is about 3% and all polls are currently within the margin of error so essentially it's just too close to call.

Do they have the shy voter factor that we have over here?

Yes, it's worked in Trump's favour in the past, but there's some speculation it could work for Harris this time around.

53:47 of what though? It's the electoral college that counts, not the popular votes. The only votes that matter are the ones in the 7 swing states.

Yes they do. So just like many in the UK would not admit to a pollster that they intended to vote for Reform but go on to do exactly that in the privacy of a polling booth. There are those in the US that would not admit to a pollster that they would vote for Trump but go on to do exactly that in the privacy of a polling booth.

Of course this could equally apply to both Republicans and Democrats but I would say more applicable to Trump voters because he is a much more divisive person.

I think exactly the same. It'll be very close though.

I really hope it's Kamala Harris, just because she appears to be sane and I don't believe that Trump is sane.

what a load of shite

I think KH is not for the American people, she’s not as patriotic as Trump- He’s all for the Americans! As for him being dangerous, there hasn’t been a single war under Trump- God help America if KH gets in

In Ireland in 2018 we had a referendum to repeal the 8th Amendment, which banned abortion. A lot of commentators beforehand thought that the polling was wrong and that shy voters would say they were voting repeal, but think differently in the ballot box.

Polling was actually inaccurate in the opposite direction. Two thirds of the electorate voted to repeal the 8th. Some of that was thought to be older practising Catholics, who should in theory be very anti-abortion, voting to repeal because they wanted their children and grandchildren to have greater freedom.

That's partially why my gut still says Harris. I don't think women in general want their daughters to have fewer rights.

@sitestuff this is where I think poll functionality would be helpful, it's a straightforward question with / options.

Rupert Murdoch
Because his companies are receiving the revenue from all the TV attack ads
Elon Musk and Peter Theil
because Trump will let them loose in the IT regulatory henhouse
Robert Mercer and Roger Stone
because their vile ideal of government for the rich by the rich will come to fruition
JD Vance
because no way will Trump last 4 years
Putin
because his stooge will let him destabilise Europe

Certainly not the American people not those of us outside the USA

You say draft-dodging bonespur Trump is 'all for Americans' but disbelieve decorated General John Kelly, who not only risked his life in active service, but lost his son to a landmine in Afghanistan?

You might want to embark on a rethink.

There are so many things that make this a tense election - not just how closely tied the poll is. Tempers are still running high. There might even be another assassination attempt before next month. And, of course, there are rumours that Trump will try to overturn the result if he fails to get elected.
Its a dangerous time.
I don’t remember anything like this.
Makes you glad to have plodding grey men in UK politics even if they do all line their own pockets.

In almost 50 years of following America's politics, since my degree and living in NYC/NJ for five years, I really don't think anything I have experienced or seen or read has prepared me to process the outcome of this election. This election is all about the freedoms of the democratic world; if the US gets it wrong, then the EU has no lead to follow. I am deeply worried. Actually, I'm slightly terrified, and being old enough I am really starting to take seriously the idea of overseas location.

@BrandyandGinger

"That's partially why my gut still says Harris"

Right now I completely agree with you especially if the election was held today rather than 5th November .

But Harris support is very gradually weakening so that if for example the election was held on the 5th January then I'm pretty sure Trump would win.

The question is whether Harris can keep her slender lead particularly in Pennsylvania between now and the 5th November.