Who will win US Election - Gut feelings

[EveryBiteinBangkok]

I have been half following online and media coverage of the US Election. It is getting close now. What is your gut feeling on who is going to win?

About a month ago, I felt fairly confident that Kamala Harris would win (who I want to win). Now though I am not sure and the amount of rumour and almost conspiracy around it online seems to be reaching fever pitch.

If you had to place a bet (grand national style) who would you go for?

The only thing Trump is all for is himself. Take yourself back to r/the_donald.

American politics are wild, anything can happen between now and then.

I think both sides will still have cards up their sleeves that they will use in an attempt to discredit the other in the last hour.

That's a survey but it's not scientific enough.
Polls do not indicate winners - as shown by polls of Trump v Hillary 2016.

A glimmer of hope. The (traditionally Republican, I think?) Washington post not endorsing Trump.

The washington post used to be right wing but is now classified as slightly left leaning. It decided not to endorse Kamala (not Trump) and to stay clear of backing any candidate.

Ah, ok, don’t follow US media very closely. Appreciate it hasn’t endorsed Kamala but still take the equal lack of endorsement for Trump as a glimmer of hope. Will take any crumb atm!

The LA Times and Washington Post (which has never been particularly right leaning - very interesting history in general and is the paper that brought down Nixon) deciding not to endorse, after years of pretty good factual coverage of Trump, probably won't affect the election outcome, but is a very, very big deal in terms of what happens when mainstream media, owned by billionaires, starts kowtowing to a fascist regime.

Both papers had endorsements of Harris written and ready to go until the owners pulled them. The editors of both papers have resigned in protest.

This is a very bad development for the US.

Oh dear. Completely misread the situation ☹️

@Wallaw

"Both papers had endorsements of Harris written and ready to go until the owners pulled them. The editors of both papers have resigned in protest.

This is a very bad development for the US."

Why is the LA Times and the Washington Posts refusal to endorse either candidate a "very bad development for the US".

Surely their neutrality especially given how close the race is, is a good thing.

No, facts and truth, not neutrality is the aim of all good news media. There is no such thing as neutrality. You can report things that are incorrect or counterfactual, but there is no reason to give equal weight.

Newspapers in the US traditionally endorse a candidate based on the reporting they have done and editorial board discussions and lay out the reasons behind their endorsement. After doing so, the papers were both prepared to endorse Harris and those endorsements were pulled by the owners.

That's why the editors of both papers have walked.

And this is quite troubling

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/10/25/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/#link-LZEQMAYGNBDCDHEWYCJWKTU6GA

I'm so scared of a Trump win that I've decided not to read anything more about the run up and polls etc. It's causing me a bit of anxiety, so I'm sticking my fingers in my ears until the result is announced.

Having said that I am bracing myself for a Trump win. I think it is inevitable at this stage, and even if he loses by a wafer, the trouble will start anyway and who knows what will happen in that event. So no winners either way I think.

Trump, unfortunately. And Putin will be in Kiev within a month.

I agree Trump. I cannot believe it but then I was in total shock the first time round. Kamala is black and a woman. Both hard sells to the majority of US citizens, so much so that the stealing, lying, manipulating misogynistic criminal may get back in.
However if he does, I don't think it will make a huge difference in the long term. Just can't believe there aren't better options.

Use your vote for Kamala. Fgs don't waste it!! 🫢

How Is it better?

Trump does not seem as desperate as Kamala to win. Most voting for Kamala doing it to prevent Trump but that would have a price to pay once she is in. Like we are seen with KS in the U.K. You will hear people being disappointed straight away about her.

I’d rather not have Trump, a felon and basically comes across as a raving idiot as President of the US. He was the one suggesting we drink bleach as a cure for Covid!

Trump. The Democrats had a good chance, the advantage of holding the White Hose and they threw it all away. Ridiculous.

Harris might win, but I wouldn't put money on it.

Trump I fear

Quite odd to ponder an insurrectionist and convicted felon as the leader of the free world.

I have a sinking feeling it will be Trump - but my hope is that many young people are signing up to vote, and this may sway things to the side of good and decency.

Because Dems tend to prefer early voting, or so I have read - in 2020, the republicans claimed that early voting is an evil plot to steal elections, so I am hopeful that the early turnout means that Harris has lots of support.

Ludicrous. Trump isn’t desperate to win ? That’ll be why his supporters didn’t storm the White house then.
You are probs in an echo chamber tbh. If you follow Conservatives or Faragists on SM you’d entirely believe the country was ready to overthrow the Starmer government and be happy to forget the utter ineptitude of the Tory years and the comedic nature of the Reform party manifesto.