Hurricane Milton

[KenAdams]

Couldn't see a thread for this in Weather.

This looks like it's going to be really bad. Helene has already caused enough devastion in the area and the poor people of Tampa are in for a lot more today.

Some people are refusing to evacuate from what I understand but the Mayor of Tampa has warned if you don't evacuate you die.

I can't imagine how scary it must be for them.

I hope it blows itself out a bit more before it makes landfall. My thoughts are with everyone affected.

Apart from that person who is only worried about her holiday. My thoughts aren't with her.

True, I don't know what the situation is with staff though I understand they have dedicated teams that are trained for these instances, so maybe it's a case of if you are employed on one of these teams you stay but if not you can stay at home/evacuate. Of course US employment laws being what they are, I wouldn't have confidence that those staff members (or "cast members" as they call them) that do stay away will be paid.

There are thousands of excess deaths every winter in the UK. And houses were flooded only a few weeks ago. We were flooded out a decade ago - took us over nine months to get our house back from the builders. Last autumn’s storms cut us off for a week. We may not get hurricanes but weather in the UK can be destructive and dangerous.

@itwasnevermine thank you. I seen its been downgraded from a 4 to 3. Think I was maybe clinging onto false hop that it would reduce itself right down to basically nothing. Saying that, I am sure the scientists looking at the data/models know there stuff. One of these times that I am hoping, however silly that is, that they are wrong.

I would be appalled if all my children took from this was tears over a rescheduled holiday! They'll still go, just not while people are trying to piece their lives back together. I can't believe some people are defending this train of thought.

If they'd have went last week how do you think they'd be enjoying their holiday now? Outrageous.

A doctor popped up on my instagram feed and they were all staying in the hospital (and she’d brought her kids there too). They were going to sleep in the corridors away from windows. So must be built to withstand a category 5 hurricane.

For those asking about the downgrading of Milton, it should be understood that although it has downgraded to a 4 it is still a very powerful storm:

Category 1 - 74-95mph winds
Category 2 - 96-110mph
Category 3 - 111-129mph
Category 4 - 130-156mph
Category 5 - 157mph+

Right now Milton is showing speeds of 126kt (according to Windy which is updating every 10 minutes). 126kt = 145mph so it is still horrendous.

I've just seen Kamala asking about the downgrading and what that means.

Fair enough. She can't be an expert on everything

I know it's probably not much comfort but it appears to be a Cat 4 now rather than a Cat 5.

It's awful when family are in the middle of things like this.

People whingeing on about being outraged over someone's Disney post is getting in the way of discussing the actual hurricane. We get it - you're outraged. Can we please move on, though?

@itwasnevermine think both Kamala and the President were/are asking questions to try and clear up false news on social media. They said they are concerned people won't take things seriously due to false news.

Sorry should have explained my post better. Trying to watch/mumsnet and sort washing etc

I would hope that hospitals are built to withstand Cat 5 hurricanes and far enough inland to avoid a major storm surge.

I can’t speak for other companies but I know many Disney cast members volunteer as ‘storm ride out’ crew to help out in the resorts during hurricanes. I’d imagine doing that also guarantees they are somewhere safe.

For those watching the cameras and people taking photos. It's scary to think it's that stormy now and the eye is still about 12 hours away from hitting.

I hope everyone remains safe. It must be awful to be away from home and wondering if you'll have one to return to

I'm heartbroken of the thought of the thousands of people who will wake up tomorrow and their lives will have been ruined overnight, literally in the space of 4-5 hours, it just seems so unfair, and there is an awful sense of helplessness across the world while we all just watch and wait for it to happen!

I hope and pray that there are minimal lives lost and everyone can recover quickly from the damage.

I should point out the storm is still a Category 4 Hurricane. They have said they expect it to be Category 3 by the time it makes landfall, but right now it is still a 4.

I love florida
There was a hurricane similar time of year 8 years ago when we last went. Luckily we went just after it hit
I can't bear to think of what they are going through. And the ones writing numbers on their horses and leaving them loose in fields to give them best chance of survival is heartbreaking (yes, I'm an equestrian!) I couldn't imagine leaving my own horses

Report from the National Hurricane Centre

"Last modified 15:00 9 October 2024 UTC
A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation. The time to evacuate, if told to do so by local officials, is quickly coming to a close.
Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion.
Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban floodingalong with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat.
Milton's structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30–35 knots. The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to 931 mb. Milton's intensity is therefore set at 145 mph (125 knots) on this advisory.
Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today (9 October) and this evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where Milton makes landfall.
Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 knots). The track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.
We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12–24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20–30 nautical miles. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur.
Finally, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed over the next couple of hours.
Forecaster Berg. Advisory Number 18. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)."

Yikes, just watching a woman with a 3 year old choosing not to evacuate (ITV News) "God will provide"

Many houses will have basement shelters

We don't have basements in Florida. A previous poster described Florida as a giant sandbar. It's a sandbar sitting on top of an underground river. You can't dig very far without hitting water.

The usual protocol for protecting oneself from a tornado is to go to an interior room in your house. Not many of those either except bathrooms. We have one of our bathrooms set up with pillows, chairs, etc. We periodically actually run drills, mainly to make sure that the dog will follow us in there. (Very short warning period for a tornado)

Tornadoes sometimes occur just from thunderstorms. They are an even bigger threat with hurricanes.

I saw that , wtf?

It's bizarre. "God" is providing storm shelters, time to evacuate, experts with detailed accurate forecasts.... but some seem to expect their homes to be spared?!

Airlines profiteering from this? This is absolutely disgusting. They should be boarding people for free if they are fleeing the area for safety?

Like the parable of the drowning man:

A storm descends on a small town, and the downpour soon turns into a flood. As the waters rise, the local preacher kneels in prayer on the church porch, surrounded by water. By and by, one of the townsfolk comes up the street in a canoe.

"Better get in, Preacher. The waters are rising fast."

"No," says the preacher. "I have faith in the Lord. He will save me."

Still the waters rise. Now the preacher is up on the balcony, wringing his hands in supplication, when another guy zips up in a motorboat.

"Come on, Preacher. We need to get you out of here. The levee's gonna break any minute."

Once again, the preacher is unmoved. "I shall remain. The Lord will see me through."

After a while the levee breaks, and the flood rushes over the church until only the steeple remains above water. The preacher is up there, clinging to the cross, when a helicopter descends out of the clouds, and a state trooper calls down to him through a megaphone.

"Grab the ladder, Preacher. This is your last chance."

Once again, the preacher insists the Lord will deliver him.

And, predictably, he drowns.

A pious man, the preacher goes to heaven. After a while he gets an interview with God, and he asks the Almighty, "Lord, I had unwavering faith in you. Why didn't you deliver me from that flood?"

God shakes his head. "What more did you want from me? I sent you two boats and a helicopter."