Bit inconvenient for certain posters...
NEW: Some really interesting research here by IPPR and @SteveAkehurst at Persuasion UK. Voters say they’d rather have higher debt and higher taxes - even if it means labour breaking manifesto pledges - than public services continuing as they are.
x.com/kiranstacey/status/1848657098072048050?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg
Firstly, what is it voters will punish and reward this Govt for most?
We set up an experiment showing voters a range of outcomes & trade-offs that might form the basis of the government's first-term in 2029.
We can then see what impact each has on government’s approvals.
Results - TL;DR: public services is the thing swing voters will judge Govt on most closely.
Progress here is rewarded even if it comes with unpopular downsides (higher debt, taxes). Stasis is punished even if it comes with popular upsides.
Reverse dynamic to 2010-2015!
x.com/steveakehurst/status/1848643577020100891?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg
Summary here -
persuasionuk.org/research/budget-2024-attitudes