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Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

1000 replies

MagicFox · 15/08/2024 20:29

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
289
MagicFox · 07/10/2024 16:28

Fescue I also agree with much of your post, but if we were in a scenario where China, Russia, NK and Iran decided to invade and conquer Europe the US would certainly be involved. Not out of the goodness of its heart, but for its vital interests

OP posts:
MagicFox · 07/10/2024 16:57

Fescue · 07/10/2024 16:13

I am not so sure it would be a catastrophe. He is a chump for sure, but he will be standing on the shoulders of quieter giants beneath him who will ensure no colossal mistakes are made. But it would shake Europe up which is desperately needed on defence. The tortoise and the hare springs to mind. The UK in particular has fallen far back in military defence capability. I fear we will lose the know-how within 10 years. When its gone, it wont come back.

Hasn't he threatened to purge anybody who might actually know what they're talking about / disagree with him?

OP posts:
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 07/10/2024 17:35

Fescue
I am not so sure it would be a catastrophe. He is a chump for sure, but he will be standing on the shoulders of quieter giants beneath him who will ensure no colossal mistakes are made.

That's what they said last time. He made colossal mistakes, and really horrible decisions, and they didn't stop him then. And he is even more erratic now, and less amenable to reason.

America taking itself out of NATO as he plans to do would not be in anyone's best interests.

L1ttledrummergirl · 07/10/2024 18:39

Trump as president will only be good for Trump. Have no illusions, he's only out for himself.

blueshoes · 07/10/2024 18:42

L1ttledrummergirl · 07/10/2024 18:39

Trump as president will only be good for Trump. Have no illusions, he's only out for himself.

Yes, good for Trump and good for Putin.

PerkingFaintly · 07/10/2024 21:49

Fescue
I am not so sure it would be a catastrophe. He is a chump for sure, but he will be standing on the shoulders of quieter giants beneath him who will ensure no colossal mistakes are made.

Blimey, if only this were true.

Sadly, he's standing on the shoulders of very much more dangerous people, who find him a useful clown to amuse the crowds.

Eg Jack Prosobiec and Steve Bannon snickering on stage at CPAC about "the end of democracy", February this year.

It wasn't a joke, and these aren't some fringe weirdos. Bannon was Trump's White House chief strategist and the architect of his 2016 campaign. Prosobiec was involved in the attempt to influence the 2017 French presidential elections by a last-minute disinformation drop.

Despite promoting Trump in 2016, his backers hadn't really expected him to win and hadn't yet figured out how to work the levers of power once he was there.

This time round they know, and they have stuff ready to roll.

You don't think Trump came up with Project 2025 himself? He might be power-hungry enough, but he's not bright enough (especially by now) to put together a comprehensive plan like that.

The people behind Trump are much more dangerous than he is.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVfA4pkJ8rw

dibly · 07/10/2024 23:36

Trump would be a disaster. Watch the press interviews he gave when he met Zelensky a few weeks back, calling Putin a good friend. Unbelievable lack of respect and empathy, and don’t even start on abortion rights. Utterly depressing to think that he’s considered appropriate to even stand as candidate, never mind to win.

On a side note, I know it’s a year anniversary for Israel and their hundred hostages, but so pissed off with the continued lack of coverage of Ukraine and their 20,000 kidnapped children.

Natsku · 08/10/2024 03:51

Trump winning would be an absolute disaster, far far worse than last time. But I am slightly hopeful he won't win.

blueshoes · 08/10/2024 13:48

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces struck an oil terminal in occupied Feodosia, Crimea on the night of October 6 to 7.
  • Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lyubinets reported on October 7 that Ukrainian authorities are investigating another case of Russian forces' unjust abuse and execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
  • Russian authorities announced an "unprecedented" cyberattack against Russian state media infrastructure on October 7.
  • Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, in Donetsk Oblast, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Igotjelly · 08/10/2024 14:08

Seems Putin is meeting Iran’s new president in a hastily arranged summit on the sidelines of some obscure event on Friday.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 08/10/2024 14:46

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️ 'Fights ongoing at every building entrance' as Russia enters eastern Toretsk https://kyivindependent.com/eastern-toretsk-battles/ military says.
The situation in Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast is very unstable as Ukraine is fighting Russian forces in the eastern outskirts of the front-line town, a spokesperson of the Operational Tactical Group Luhansk said on Oct. 7.

Dutch Defense Minister Brekelmans: β€˜F-16s now used only for defense, offensive operations require more training’ https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-defense-minister-brekelmans-f-16s-now-used-only-for-defense-offensive-operations-require-more-training/
In an exclusive interview with the Kyiv Independent, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans talks about F-16s, Victory Plan, and Ukraine’s NATO bid.

⚑️ France to deliver first Mirage 2000 jets https://kyivindependent.com/france-jets-ukraine/ to Ukraine in early 2025.
Ukraine should receive the first Mirage 2000 fighter jets from France in the first quarter of 2025, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Oct. 8.

⚑️ Russian state media faced 'unprecedented' cyberattack https://kyivindependent.com/russian-state-media-faced-unprecedented-cyberattack-on-putins-birthday/ on Putin's birthday.

⚑️ North Korea likely sending soldiers https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-likely-sending-soldiers-to-ukraine-to-aid-russia-seoul-says/ to Ukraine to aid Russia, Seoul says.
North Korea is likely to deploy regular soldiers to Ukraine to help Russia, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun told lawmakers on Oct. 8, the Yonhap news agency reported.

⚑️ Cuba asks to join BRICS https://kyivindependent.com/cuba-asks-to-join-brics-as-partner/ as partner country in letter to Putin.

⚑️Ukraine, Slovakia to create joint energy hub, Shmyhal says. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-slovakia-to-create-joint-eastern-european-energy-hub-shmyhal-says/

Will the Middle East crisis affect Iran's supply of ballistic missiles to Russia? It's complicated
https://kyivindependent.com/will-the-middle-east-crisis-affect-irans-supply-of-ballistic-missiles-to-russia-its-complicated/
Iran launched its largest-ever aerial attack against Israel on Oct. 1, with nearly 200 missiles fired that day, sparking fears of a broader war in the region.
Which begs the question β€” will Iran's recently increased need for ballistic missiles affect the still relatively fledgling supply of them to Russia?

⚑️Harris says she will not meet https://kyivindependent.com/harris-says-she-will-not-meet-putin-for-truce-talks-without-ukraines-participation/ Putin for truce talks without Ukraine's participation.

⚑️ Quality of food supplied to Ukrainian military https://kyivindependent.com/quality-of-food-supplied-to-ukrainian-army-raises-red-flags-media-investigation-says/ raises red flags, media investigation says.
Soldiers received inedible cans of food on the front line, according to a serviceman who turned to NGL media to raise leadership’s concern after unsuccessful attempts to communicate directly with decision-makers, NGL media wrote on Oct. 7.

⚑️ Top medical official in Kyiv suspected https://kyivindependent.com/medical-official-kyiv/ of faking disability certificates for draft-age men.
The head of one of the inter-district Centers for Medical and Social Experts in Kyiv will appear in court for allegedly handing out fake disability certificates, the police said on Oct. 8.

⚑️Russian court sentences https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-arrests-72-year-old-us-citizen/ 72-year-old US citizen for fighting for Ukraine.

The Angels special intelligence unit has evacuated from occupied Crimea the family of a Ukrainian naval officer persecuted by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), the Navy reported on Oct. 7. https://kyivindependent.com/pursued-by-the-russian-fsb/

⚑️Putin's Black Sea residence demolished https://kyivindependent.com/putins-black-sea-residence-demolished-due-to-safety-concerns-russian-media-reports/ due to safety concerns, Russian media reports.
Putin has reportedly stopped visiting his residence in Sochi due to concerns over potential drone attacks, according to the independent Russian media outlet Proekt

⚑️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 3, injure https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-5/ around 50 over past day.

⚑️ Russian strike on Kharkiv injures 21. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-strike-on-kharkiv-oct-8/

β€ͺRagnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦β€¬ β€ͺOCT 8, 2024
β–  2nd highest engagements & casualties of October so far
β–  Equipment losses close to average; record 7-day vehicle losses
β–  Improved strike ratio but still in double-digits

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 08/10/2024 14:53

North Korea likely sending soldiers kyivindependent.com/north-korea-likely-sending-soldiers-to-ukraine-to-aid-russia-seoul-says/ to Ukraine to aid Russia, Seoul says.
North Korea is likely to deploy regular soldiers to Ukraine to help Russia, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun told lawmakers on Oct. 8, the Yonhap news agency reported.

Can't NATO draw some red lines of its own, for example you have foreign boots on the ground we untie the handcuffs stopping Ukraine using NATO weapons to strike russian territory. We always seem to be cowering!

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 08/10/2024 14:59

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Hungary Blocks €35 Billion EU Loan to Ukraine
Hungary has once again suspended a €35 billion loan proposed by the European Commission to support Ukraine's struggling economy, as reported by Euronews. The Hungarian government confirmed it will hold off on the loan until the United States elects its next president on November 5.

According to Ukrainian military sources, Russia’s dominance in visual intelligence gathering has been significantly reduced in recent months due to Ukraine’s innovative drone tactics. Prior to June 2023, Russian drones such as the Orlan-10, ZALA, and Supercam dominated the skies over Ukrainian positions, flying at altitudes of up to 5,000 meters, making them invulnerable to ground fire. Even attempts to jam their signals were often unsuccessful, as most Russian drones employed artificial intelligence algorithms that automatically directed them back to Russian territory if their GPS signal was disrupted.
Russian reconnaissance UAVs, which greatly outnumbered Ukrainian drones, played a critical role in identifying and targeting Ukrainian soldiers and equipment. Within 15 minutes to two hours of spotting an important target, the Russians were able to strike with deadly precision from up to 300 km behind the front line. For example, in March, two Patriot launchers en route from Germany to Ukraine were destroyed by Russian dronesβ€”an immense loss for Ukrainian forces.
However, on June 24, 2023, this dominance shifted. Ukrainian marines from the 38th Marine Brigade in Kherson, frustrated by continuous Russian surveillance and artillery fire, experimented by launching a small FPV suicide drone at maximum altitude to chase a Russian ZALA drone detected at 1,300 meters. The Ukrainian drone caught up and destroyed the ZALA, marking the first time a Ukrainian unit had downed a Russian reconnaissance UAV in this manner.
This tactic quickly spread among Ukrainian units, and by June, Ukrainian forces were sometimes taking down up to four enemy reconnaissance drones a day in the Kherson region alone. Notably, the cost of a Ukrainian modified FPV drone is around $600, while Russian drones like the ZALA can cost up to $40,000.
In response to this new threat, Russia has adapted by increasing the altitude and speed of their flights, flying more frequently at night, and camouflaging their UAVs. Some drones are even marked with deceptive Ukrainian insignia and equipped with rear-view cameras to watch for pursuing drones.
Ukrainian forces have also adapted, deploying high-altitude suicide drones with thermal imaging optics. They have discovered that the friction from air on the wings of Russian reconnaissance drones leaves a thermal trail, which can be tracked at night, allowing for more precise targeting of enemy UAVs.

The occupying authorities of Feodosia are evacuating the civilian population from the Severnyy microdistrict
Meanwhile, the area of the fire increased to 2,500 square meters.

Ukraine has begun issuing grants for missile production, ensuring investors that their investments will yield returns. Next year, grants will be issued to support powder factories.
Ukraine is also creating simulators to test defense technologies and building the necessary infrastructure for this. Over the past two years, more than 200 companies have developed robotic ground platforms, 500 companies have produced drones, and over 100 are focused on electronic warfare (EW) development.

πŸ‡©πŸ‡° Denmark Donates 18 Emergency Rescue Lifts to Ukraine
The lifts will be used to rescue people from buildings after explosions and to extinguish fires in high-rise structures, according to the Danish Emergency Management Agency

Slovaks Raise €4 Million for Artillery Shells for Ukraine
Ukraine has received a shipment of artillery shells funded by a €4 million collection organized by Fedir Blaschak in Slovakia.

During the year, the Russians took over 180,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain through the port of Mariupol, Prime Minister Shmyhal said

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that Russia demands Ukraine withdraw its forces from four partially occupied regionsβ€”Donetsk ("DPR"), Luhansk ("LPR"), Zaporizhzhia, and Khersonβ€”and abandon plans to join NATO.

In Russia, a Ukrainian woman has been sentenced to prison for allegedly "preparing a terrorist attack in Mariupol."

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 08/10/2024 14:59

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 08/10/2024 14:53

North Korea likely sending soldiers kyivindependent.com/north-korea-likely-sending-soldiers-to-ukraine-to-aid-russia-seoul-says/ to Ukraine to aid Russia, Seoul says.
North Korea is likely to deploy regular soldiers to Ukraine to help Russia, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun told lawmakers on Oct. 8, the Yonhap news agency reported.

Can't NATO draw some red lines of its own, for example you have foreign boots on the ground we untie the handcuffs stopping Ukraine using NATO weapons to strike russian territory. We always seem to be cowering!

Given up expecting NATO to draw any red lines at all.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 08/10/2024 15:01

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Satellite images reveal that a "Pantsir-S1" air defense system had been stationed at the oil depot in Feodosia since the fall of 2022, but it failed to prevent the recent attack.

Near Vuhledar, from which Ukrainian defenders recently withdrew, the ratio of forces between Ukrainian troops and the occupiers was nearly 1:9 in favor of the enemy, according to Colonel Oleksandr Okhrimenko, commander of the 72nd Black Zaporizhian Separate Mechanized Brigade [artillery was apparently 1:10 in favour of Russia]

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Polish farmers are once again planning to block truck traffic near the β€œMedyka β€” Shehyni” border crossing.
Ukraine’s State Customs Service has warned that the protest could take place from October 8 until December 31.
β–ͺ️ Since November 2023 and into this year, Polish farmers have occasionally blocked border crossings with Ukraine, demanding a ban on the import of agricultural products from Ukraine.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 08/10/2024 15:03

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Using ballistic missiles, Russians target a second shipment of grain in 48 hours.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40165

UK sanctions Russian commander for use of chemical weapons in Ukraine.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40186

Russians are turning back the clock, not only with a morality lifted from the 9th century but seemingly on a path to be left with nothing but 9th-century technology as well.
Social media giant Discord may finally become unavailable in Russia.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
dibly · 08/10/2024 18:16

Don’t know how reliable John Sweeney is but this is a stark view stating that approx 100k Ukranian soldiers have deserted due to a lack of ammo,

x.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1843234038947172455?s=46&t=BdE6yOfORp4VA-jk1dzT6Q

Igotjelly · 08/10/2024 18:22

dibly · 08/10/2024 18:16

Don’t know how reliable John Sweeney is but this is a stark view stating that approx 100k Ukranian soldiers have deserted due to a lack of ammo,

x.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1843234038947172455?s=46&t=BdE6yOfORp4VA-jk1dzT6Q

He’s generally pretty good and well connected.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 08/10/2024 18:46

yes

that's ... very worrying.

notimagain · 09/10/2024 07:49

Can't NATO draw some red lines of its own, for example you have foreign boots on the ground we untie the handcuffs stopping Ukraine using NATO weapons to strike russian territory. We always seem to be cowering!

That’s the problem with rule based organisations..

It’s frustrating (to say the least) but that would mean NATO was acting/threatening to act in manner way outside any obligations laid out in the North Atlantic Treaty (cf. the lack of NATO support for the UK during the Falklands War conflict).

OTOH Individual nations may be free to offer assistance/support/set red lines as they see fit.

Mb76 · 09/10/2024 07:57

Really worried about hurricane Milton, mum and her husband are in Largo in Zone B. Not evacuating. 😰 They are in the concrete apartment block on the middle floor so flooding and loss of roof aren’t going to affect them presumably, but I don’t know if their windows will hold up. Plus debris and people’s damaged belongings chucked out after Helene, that they streets are still full of could cause further damage. Couldn’t persuade them to leave and now it’s too late. I’m not going to sleep tonight worrying.
sorry to derail from Ukraine, this hurricane is big news right now

Igotjelly · 09/10/2024 08:13

Mb76 · 09/10/2024 07:57

Really worried about hurricane Milton, mum and her husband are in Largo in Zone B. Not evacuating. 😰 They are in the concrete apartment block on the middle floor so flooding and loss of roof aren’t going to affect them presumably, but I don’t know if their windows will hold up. Plus debris and people’s damaged belongings chucked out after Helene, that they streets are still full of could cause further damage. Couldn’t persuade them to leave and now it’s too late. I’m not going to sleep tonight worrying.
sorry to derail from Ukraine, this hurricane is big news right now

I have friends in Tampa who aren't evacuating despite being told to. And they live in the equivalent of a trailer! Utter madness. I'm thinking of everyone impacted just now. Hoping your mum and her husband are OK Mb76 ❀

notimagain · 09/10/2024 10:21

A fairly gloomy piece from the UK’s Guardian newspaper….

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/09/west-vladimir-putin-ukraine-donald-trump

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 09/10/2024 12:13

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Hungary blocks https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-to-hold-up-50-billion-g7-loan-for-ukraine-until-after-the-us-election/ EU sanctions changes, holding up $50 billion G7 loan package for Ukraine. [announced yesterday but repeating it due to my outrage]

⚑️Russia continues influence campaigns https://kyivindependent.com/russia-continues-influence-campaigns-to-support-trumps-2024-candidacy-us-intelligence-says/ to support Trump's 2024 candidacy, US intelligence says.

As signs of talks about West Germany model https://kyivindependent.com/as-signs-of-talks-about-west-germany-model-for-ukraine-peace-emerge-experts-weigh-in-on-feasibility/ for Ukraine peace emerge, experts weigh in on feasibility
Ukraine is seeking membership in the NATO military alliance as a part of its plan to end Russia’s war, and recent reports suggest a West Germany model is seriously being discussed among Kyiv and its allies.

⚑️Biden postpones https://kyivindependent.com/biden-3/ visit to Germany due to hurricane ahead of Ramstein meeting.

⚑️ Russian weapons depot storing North Korean shells, missiles set ablaze after drone attack https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-confirms-drone-strike-on-russian-weapons-depot-storing-north-korean-shells/ Ukraine's military reports.
Ukraine's General Staff said the depot was the 67th Arsenal of Russia’s Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU).

⚑️Ukraine may face 'toughest' winter https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-may-face-toughest-winter-since-invasion-began-rutte-says/ since invasion began, Rutte says.
NATO's new Secretary General Mark Rutte warned on Oct. 8 that Ukraine may be facing its most challenging winter since the start of the full-scale invasion, as the country prepares for more Russian attacks against energy infrastructure.

⚑️Trump reportedly spoke https://kyivindependent.com/trump-reportedly-spoke-with-putin-7-times-after-out-of-white-house/ with Putin as many as 7 times after leaving White House.

⚑️VP Harris urged Zelensky to develop https://kyivindependent.com/vp-harris-urged-zelensky-to-choose-successor-in-case-of-death-or-capture-ahead-of-invasion-book-excerpt-reveals/ succession plan in case of death or capture ahead of invasion, book excerpt reveals. In November 2023, Zelensky said in an interview with The Sun that he had survived at least five assassination attempts.

Ragnar Bjartur GudmundssonOCT 9, 2024
β–  Engagements remain high but casualties below avg
β–  Drop in equipment losses; good special equipment losses
β–  Janovsky: 65 πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί 15 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ added (4.3:1); 30-day ratio at 2.3x
β–  Fewer strikes on both sides, ratio remains unfavorable

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 09/10/2024 12:13

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host leaders from the US, France, and Britain in Berlin this Saturday to discuss military and financial support for Ukraine, according to a Bloomberg report.
Following the Berlin talks, the leaders will travel to Ramstein Air Base for discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other world leaders. The focus will be on maintaining support for Ukraine and exploring paths to lasting peace. Germany is also expected to announce a new aid package for Ukraine.

The UK has committed approximately $4.5 billion to procure British-made weapons for Ukraine, according to the country's Ministry of Defence.

September has been reported as the deadliest month for the Russian army since the onset of the war in Ukraine, according to The Telegraph. The average daily casualties have surged to 1,271 soldiers killed or seriously wounded, surpassing the previous peak of 1,262 in May.
Analysts suggest that the high casualty rates are linked to Russia's tactics of mass infantry assaults, described as "meat waves." John Foreman, a former British defense attachΓ© in Moscow, predicts that Russia will continue its offensive operations without pause throughout the winter.

Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will become the chairman of the Munich Security Conference from February 2025, as predicted before his resignation

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ NATO Commander Lists U.S. Weapons Yet to Be Sent to Ukraine
The commander of NATO forces in Europe, Christopher Cavoli, submitted a list to Congress detailing American weapons that have not yet been transferred to Ukraine, but could aid Ukrainian forces in the war against Russia, according to CNN.
The list includes JASSM air-to-surface missiles and Link 16, a communication system used by the U.S. and NATO for data exchange.
Cavoli’s list does not explain why these systems have not been provided, despite their potential usefulness.

Germany has delivered an IRIS-T SLM medium-range battery and two IRIS-T SLS short-range launchers to Ukraine, according to Christian Freuding, head of the Situation Center for Ukraine at the German Ministry of Defense, in an interview with RND.

The Lithuanian Ignitis Group has allocated €4 million to Ukraine's Energy Support Fund. This funding will be used to procure equipment aimed at restoring the country's energy infrastructure, providing 120 MW of capacity.

South Korea has sent 80 portable X-ray machines to Ukraine as part of a government donation valued at over $2 million, according to Ukraine's Ministry of Health.

A HIMARS missile has successfully destroyed a Russian 39N6 "Kasta-2E2" radar station. The strike was carried out by Ukraine's 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade, known as "Black Forest."

πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊβŒπŸ€– Discord Messenger Blocked in Russia
Issues with the messenger have been reported since at least September.
In early autumn, Roskomnadzor began adding Discord pages to its register of prohibited information. Since September 20, Roskomnadzor has issued five decisions against the platform, leading to its blocking, and imposed a fine of 3.5 million rubles.

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