Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

How much of a difference would a general mobilisation make? Aside from upsetting people in Moscow?

We are still talking about civilians who have to be trained, fed, equipped and led. Given the way Russia is using meat assaults at the moment, I doubt they will turn into a modern, professional atmy overnight, just because the numbers go up.

This is correct. It will take about three months to go from civilian to soldier, more if they are going into a specialist role. By then, we'll be well into winter, when not much will be happening on the battlefield. Then, the Rasputitsa (muddy season) will come along.

Putin is between the devil and the deep blue sea on this issue. There's a labor shortage currently in Russia because the economy is running hot from all of the war spending. So many military-aged men have either fled the country, been killed or wounded, or are currently serving in the military. If he pushes too many into the army, the civilian economy will suffer. He already had to pay huge enlistment bonuses in part because civilian wages are up sharply. There is only so much juice in the orange, as they say.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia aims to draft https://kyivindependent.com/russia-aims-to-draft-133-000-during-new-round-of-fall-conscription/ 133,000 during new round of fall conscription.
Russia is planning to draft 133,000 Russians between October and January, according to a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin on Sept. 30.
Men aged from 18 to 30 will be drafted as part of the regularly occurring fall conscription campaign.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine strikes Russian military arsenal https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraine-strikes-russian-military-arsenal-storing-missiles-drones-in-volgograd-oblast/ storing missiles, drones in Volgograd Oblast.
Ukrainian forces struck the Kotluban military arsenal in Russia's Volgograd Oblast, the General Staff reported on Sept. 29. The military arsenal was used to store and modernize missiles and artillery, according to the General Staff.

⚡️Far-right party opposed to Ukraine aid https://kyivindependent.com/far-right-party-opposed-to-ukraine-aid-wins-austria-elections/ wins Austria elections

⚡️ Hours of explosions https://kyivindependent.com/hours-of-explosions-heard-in-kyiv-as-capital-fends-of-waves-of-russian-attack-drones/ heard in Kyiv as capital fends off waves of Russian attack drones.

⚡️Russia intensifies https://kyivindependent.com/russia-intensifies-attacks-on-recaptured-vovchansk-plant-as-number-one-goal/ attacks on recaptured Vovchansk plant, uses 'maximum range of weapons,' military says.
"(The plant) is not a tactical target as such for (Russia). But at the same time, the loss of this facility was a very powerful blow to its image," Kharkiv Group of Forces spokesperson Vitalii Sarantsev said on Sept. 30.

⚡️Russian parliament speaker announces bills tightening migration https://kyivindependent.com/russian-state-duma-announces-bills-that-would-tighten-migration-policy/ policy.
There has been an uptick in anti-migration sentiment in Russia in recent months, especially toward migrants from Central Asia after several gunmen opened fire at a venue in the Moscow suburbs at the end of March.

⚡️Helsinki Commission paper calls for reconsideration of US strategy https://kyivindependent.com/helsinki-commission-paper-calls-for-reconsideration-of-us-strategy-toward-russia-the-hill-reports/ toward Russia, The Hill reports.
The bipartisan committee tasked with promoting democracy and human rights in post-Soviet states is urging the U.S. to abandon its post-Cold War approach to Russia and officially recognize Moscow as a "persistent" threat to global security.

⚡️Norway considering building fence along Russian border to curb https://kyivindependent.com/norway-considering-building-fence-along-russian-border-to-curb-migrant-crossings/ migrant crossings.

⚡️Ukraine commemorates 83rd anniversary https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-commemorates-83rd-anniversary-babyn-yar-tragedy/ of Babyn Yar tragedy.

⚡️The Insider: Obtained documents https://kyivindependent.com/the-insider-official-documents-following-navalnys-death-were-forged-hinting-at-possible-poisoning/ drawn following Navalny's death omit acute stomach pain, hint at possible poisoning.
The initial documents detail moments before Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny's death. According to papers signed by investigator Alexander Voropaev, Navalny felt sick, fell to the floor, and called for help, saying that he felt severe stomach pain and began to vomit.

⚡️Russian attacks https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-3-injure-45-over-past-day/ against Ukraine kill 3, injure 45 over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

• SEP 30, 2024

■ Engagements below 7-day average, +1.2k casualties ■ Equipment losses well below 7-day average ■ KIU: +35 officers; 5.9 per day for last four batches ■ Strike ratio improved but still in double-digits

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Denmark will provide nearly $629 million for weapons purchases through the Ukrainian defense industry, with $434 million coming from frozen Russian assets.

The number of injured as a result of the Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia has increased to 16 people

The General Staff confirmed the destruction of a weapons arsenal with Iranian missiles in the Volgograd region of Russia.
“According to available information, an echelon carrying Iranian missiles arrived at the arsenal before the attack. The military facility was protected by electronic warfare and anti-aircraft defense, but our units successfully completed their mission. A fire and ammunition detonation occurred at the arsenal,” stated the General Staff of the Armed Forces.

Ukraine failed to hit the ammunition depot in Kotluban near Volgograd — Radio Svoboda.
The pictures show that a fire broke out next to the arsenal of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation after an unmanned aerial vehicle strike, but the fire did not spread to the territory of the ammunition warehouse.

International Ski Federation extends the suspension of Russian athletes for another year. In response to the decision, the head of the Russian Ski Federation Yelena Välbe expressed her desire to bomb London. "It seems to me that if we had dropped a serious bomb in the center of London, everything would be over by now, we would have been allowed to go anywhere," she

According to Andrii Sybiha, head of Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a meeting with Hungary's Foreign Minister highlighted positive progress in addressing the protection of Hungarians' rights in Ukraine. Both parties agreed to continue cooperation to reach consensus on all sensitive issues.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Around 44% of Ukrainian children show signs of PTSD, according to a recent study by the Olena Zelenska Foundation.
However, mental health charity Beyond Conflict estimates this figure could be as high as 80%.
Edna Fernandes, founder and executive director of Beyond Conflict, highlighted the alarming reality:
“These statistics are both harrowing and disturbing but sadly unsurprising.”
She referred to an international panel event co-hosted by the charity, where an expert from Ukraine’s PTSD taskforce revealed that many children are suffering from symptoms that can manifest as panic attacks, depression, self-harm, and suicidal thoughts.

ISW: Next year, Russia plans to increase its defense spending by $30 billion, but is keeping it concealed.
Bloomberg reported that it reviewed a draft three-year budget, which revealed that the Russian government plans to spend 13.2 trillion rubles (about $140 billion) on defense in 2025, up from 10.4 trillion rubles (around $110 billion) planned for 2024.
ISW emphasizes https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-29-2024 that Kremlin officials likely fear war fatigue among the Russian population and are attempting to maintain public support for the war by emphasizing the government's focus on social projects.

A recently captured Russian POW at the Vovchansk aggregate plant shared his experience
He described how food shortages led to eating dogs, cats, and goats, as well as incidents of suicides and the killing of their comrades for stealing food.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russia's ongoing brutality in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson continues escalating as Russian drones hunt individual civilians, in their cars, on streets, at bus stops, up to 60 attacks/day.

Ukraine's battle tech innovation not limited to drone warfare as the home grown armored vehicle industry is now combining extensive Ukrainian battle experience with heavy American truck technology.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39747

Ukrainians will soon be presented with Zelensky's ʼvictory plan,ʼ but without some "classified provisions" to prevent the Russians from learning about them — Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Yermak

Growing discontent among Hungarians as Orban's increasingly authoritarian rule offers little hope for the future.
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/39810

Another power vacuum left by western apathy, North Macedonia and it's neighbors are now on Russia's acquisition list.
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/39597

A welcome departure from Biden's noncommittal dithering on Ukraine, Vice President Harris' speech in presence of Zelensky sounded almost Churchhillian in comparison.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39798

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Western countries continue to invest in the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian ammunition depot and missile storage facility near Kotluban, Volgograd Oblast on September 29.
• The Russian government is reportedly planning to further increase defense spending in 2025, although Kremlin officials appear to be highlighting planned social spending while avoiding discussions of increased defense spending.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Glushkovsky Raion, west of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions.

I thought this was a pretty good analysis of the balance of power between Russia and NATO, and the transformations the Russian military has gone through as a result of the war in Ukraine.

Has Russia’s military improved enough to take on NATO?

I still find it surprising that Putin thought he had a world-class army that would easily win simply because he had spent a great deal of money upgrading it. Surely, he must have had some idea of how corrupt and dysfunctional it was from the start. I guess he saw what he wanted to see.

I suspect that a lot of the time he was told what people thought that he wanted to hear.

That article mentions Iran. Made me think. On the one hand, no one wants the Middle East to blow up in a full out war. On the other hand, would Western allies be that unhappy to see Israel bring about ’regime change’ in Iran if that were possible given how Iran is supplying weapon to Ukraine? God knows how that would all play out though Netanyahu seemed v confident with his rather cryptic Twitter post.

I don't know if regime change in Iran is realistic. There are no genuine democratic elections and the security apparatus is strong and ruthless. It's a theocracy.

I do think the Sunni led countries are quite pleased to see Iran get a kicking from Israel, even if it is to their proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. If all of this stops Iran's terrorist behavior and nuclear arms program, it will be a win. I think the US should now go after the Houthis, if for no other reason than to stop the attacks on shipping. The Sunnis would quite like that as well.

Edited to add: Israel is entering Lebanon with ground forces:

Israel Sends Troops Into Lebanon, Escalating Fight Against Hezbollah - First big incursion in two decades fans fears of wider regional war

This bears watching. Hezbollah is like a bodyguard for Iran. Iran will not defend a bodyguard, even if it's on the ground, wounded and almost helpless. It will make the Iranian leadership very, very nervous.

International Ski Federation extends the suspension of Russian athletes for another year. In response to the decision, the head of the Russian Ski Federation Yelena Välbe expressed her desire to bomb London. "It seems to me that if we had dropped a serious bomb in the center of London, everything would be over by now, we would have been allowed to go anywhere," she

Bloody hell. They should be banned permanently, so long as she's still head of them!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-30-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Russian government plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2025 — about 41 percent of its annual expenditures. The Russian budget will continue to support various social programs, including the Kremlin's pronatalist programs, but a continued focus on defense spending is likely affecting the effectiveness and sustainability of these programs.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted presidential aide and close personal ally Alexei Dyumin to the Russian Security Council alongside three other officials.
• The Kremlin continues to use state and regional awards to co-opt previously critical milbloggers as part of wider efforts to gain control over the information space.
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived in Tehran on September 30 to meet with various Iranian officials and highlight Russo-Iranian economic cooperation.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Glushkvosky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed on September 30 the decree on Russia’s usual semi-annual fall conscription for 133,000 draftees.

This made me wonder "why London?" How much influence does Britain have on the International Ski Federation?

I think it’s that concept of the UK as the ultimate bogeyman again.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russian forces enter https://kyivindependent.com/vuhledar/ Vuhledar, situation 'extremely difficult,' governor says.
"The enemy has already almost reached the center of the town... The fighting is going on within the town, so it is almost impossible to bring in humanitarian aid," Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin said.

Who is Mark Rutte, NATO's new Secretary General? https://kyivindependent.com/how-mark-rutte-became-nato-secretary-general-and-what-it-means-for-ukraine/
Mark Rutte assumed the role of NATO Secretary General on Oct. 1.
Rutte, the longest-serving prime minister in Dutch history, is widely regarded as a stable, consensus-building politician who will be able to find a middle ground between the cautious, large members of NATO and the members that border Russia.

⚡️ Germany's Scholz hoping for phone call with Putin https://kyivindependent.com/germanys-scholz-hoping-for-phone-call-with-putin-zeit-reports/ Zeit reports.

Far-right Freedom Party wins Austrian elections, further cementing Russia-friendly wall in Central Europe https://kyivindependent.com/far-right-freedom-party-wins-austrian-elections-cementing-further-cementing-russia-friendly-wall-in-central-europe/
Austrians went to the polls on Sept. 29, handing the victory to the far-right, anti-migration Freedom Party (FPO). The party gained 29% of the vote, its best result to date.

⚡️Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant 'on verge of blackout' https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-substation-cuts-off-power-line-to-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-kyiv-says/ after Russian attack on substation, Ukraine says.
Russian forces attacked a substation connected to the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP), cutting off a power line to the facility, Ukraine's Energy Ministry said on Oct. 1.

Recurring failures https://kyivindependent.com/recurring-failures-to-launch-satan-icbm-throw-shadow-on-putins-nuclear-saber-rattling/ to launch Satan ICBM throw shadow on Putin's nuclear saber-rattling
.... Although the Kremlin has denied that it conducted ICBM test launches, the satellite imagery of the launch site showed an explosion that was linked to the Sarmat missile. If confirmed, this would be the fourth failed Sarmat launch

⚡️Russia plans https://kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-30-boost-in-defense-spending-25-increase-for-putin-presidential-administration/ more than 25% increase of funding for Putin and his presidential administration, according to a draft budget for 2025 published on Sept. 30

⚡️Ukraine doesn't need US permission to strike back https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-does-not-need-us-permission-to-strike-back-at-russia-has-homemade-arms-mill/ at Russia with homemade weapons, State Department says

⚡️Energoatom orders https://kyivindependent.com/energoatom-orders-additional-protection-for-rivne-nuclear-power-plant-only-at-end-of-september/ additional protection for Rivne Nuclear Power Plant only at end of September, media reports.

The Russian company Donskoy Ugol Trading House is planning to start exporting coal from the occupied Donbas region through the port of occupied Mariupol, the Russian state-controlled media outlet RBC reported on Sept. 30. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-to-start-exporting-coal-from-occupied-donbas-in-october-proxy-leader-claims/

⚡️Lithuania urges https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-urges-icc-probe-into-crimes-of-lukashenko-regime/ ICC probe into crimes of Lukashenko regime.
This appeal focuses on offenses primarily carried out since May 2020, when the Alexander Lukashenko regime in Belarus started to increasingly target civilians through deportation, and persecute political opponents

⚡️Updated: Russian attack on Kherson https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-market-in-kherson-killing-5-injuring-3/ kills at least 6, injures 6.
⚡️Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-zaporizhzhia-kills/ kills 1 person, injures 6.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬

• OCT 1, 2024

■ Engagements & casualties above 7-day average ■ Drone, APV & vehicle losses above average ■ 7-day drone losses at a record level ■ 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes missing from today's GSUA report

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte Declares Ukraine a Top Priority
New NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that supporting Ukraine is his main focus. "We must ensure that Ukraine remains a sovereign, independent, democratic nation," Rutte said, emphasizing that Ukraine is at the top of his list of priorities. He also highlighted deterrence and defense of the Alliance as other key objectives.

NATO has not observed any changes in Russia's nuclear doctrine that would require the alliance to adjust its own policies, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated, according to Reuters. "NATO has not detected any changes in Russia’s policy that would require changes on the part of the alliance," Stoltenberg confirmed.

Russia’s 2025 Budget Sets Record War Spending at 13.5 Trillion Rubles
Military spending is projected to reach 6.31% of Russia's GDP.
In comparison, the 2024 budget set military spending at 10.4 trillion rubles, marking a record at that time.

The U.S. has signed a $6.9 billion contract with Boeing Corporation, running until December 2035, for the production of small-diameter bombs. These weapons will be supplied to Ukraine, Japan, and Bulgaria, according to the Pentagon.

After nearly a year under occupation, three children and their mother were successfully brought to Ukrainian-controlled territory in Kyiv.
According to the ombudsman, while in the occupied area, the family faced dangerous conditions. The occupiers threatened to take the children from their mother and forced them to follow Russian education standards.

❗️Mass bombardment of Zaporizhzhia with Guided Aerial Bombs.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is in the hottest areas of the front.

Lithuanian customs seized postal parcels containing camouflage nets from a train traveling from Kaliningrad to Moscow and handed them over to Ukraine, according to the country’s customs department.

The U.S. federal government has allocated nearly $175 billion in aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion, and this assistance has significantly boosted the American economy, particularly in the defense sector.
According to The Washington Post, much of the financial aid stays within the U.S., supporting local production of weapons and ammunition. Factories in places like Scranton, Pennsylvania, have ramped up production, creating hundreds of new jobs. General Dynamics, which operates the artillery shell production facility in Scranton, has hired over 200 new employees. Similarly, defense plants in Alabama and Texas are producing equipment like armored personnel carriers and mobile artillery systems.
This defense-driven growth is revitalizing regions that have long struggled with unemployment, such as Pennsylvania's former coal and textile towns. Local officials are optimistic that continued U.S. support for Ukraine will further stimulate these areas' economies, attracting skilled workers to meet growing demand.
However, there is growing conservative opposition to further aid for Ukraine, particularly among some Republicans.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The fighting in Vuhledar is ongoing, almost reaching the city center, according to Vadym Filashkin, head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration.
There are still 107 residents in the city. Delivering humanitarian aid to them is very difficult due to the intense fighting. According to Filashkin, the situation is "severe."

A Russian Su-35S performed a dangerous maneuver near an American F-16 in the Alaska region.
The U.S. Air Force fighter jet was deployed to intercept a Russian Tu-95 and successfully completed its mission, despite the unprofessional actions of the Russian pilot. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/24895

Two days before Queen Elizabeth II's death, Boris Johnson spoke with her about Ukraine. He mentioned that it was difficult to persuade India to "take a firmer stance against Russia."
At that time, Queen Elizabeth II recalled https://inews.co.uk/news/most-shocking-lines-boris-johnsons-memoir-unleashed-3299992 a conversation with former Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in the 1950s.
"He told me that India will always side with Russia and that some things will never change. They just are," Johnson quoted the Queen as saying.

Shaman, the author of the Z-anthem song "I Am Russian," explained why Russian patriots can use iPhones and drive BMWs. In his opinion, it's possible that the creators of German cars and American smartphones were inspired by Russian cultural figures like Tchaikovsky, Dostoevsky, or Bulgakov.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

At 9am today, all across Ukraine, street traffic stopped, pedestrians paused and childrens' classrooms fell silent as fallen heros were honored with a moment of silence.
Defenders Day October 1st, 2024

A welcome departure from Biden's noncommittal dithering on Ukraine, Vice President Harris' speech in presence of Zelensky sounded almost Churchhillian in comparison.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39798

Due to the dust storm covering Ukraine, the Ministry of Health advises staying indoors as much as possible and keeping windows closed
According to meteorologists, the dust storm from the Caspian Sea has reached the Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions.
It is expected to reach Kyiv by October 1-2, but air quality in the capital is already deteriorating.

So all kicking off now… what is the likely outcome of Iran’s missile attacks on Israel? Did Netanyahu want this to happen in order to legitimatise his launch of an open attack on Iran?

As Miss Conduct mentions, the problem is the possibility of a power vacuum if somehow against the odds a regime change was engineered. Like Iraq after Hussein. Remove one problem. Create another. In the end, it’s the civilians (women and children) who suffer. Always pawns in the wars of men.

Listening to John Bolton being interviewed by Evan Davis on PM 40 minutes ago, was like Dick Cheney being interviewed on the eve of Desert Storm. Who knows where this is going but it could be the big one. I know John Bolton is no longer in government, and I have now idea hoe Biden's team will deal with this, but the initiative - whatever is established in the next few days - cannot be given up easily.

Somehow I think very little

One consequence of this is the US may open its eyes further on how dangerous the world is and how it must protect its allies. I can possibly Israel destroying nuclear fuel production sites in Iran as it may be imperative for the world to remove the potential of Iran developing such a weapon (and remember the Russians are allwgedly helping Iran). The US is a ful! backer of Israel and the massive Iranian ballistic missile attack may have alarmed many in the US.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-1-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar as of October 1 following a reported Ukrainian withdrawal from the settlement, though it is unclear if Russian forces will make rapid gains beyond Vuhledar in the immediate future.
• Some Russian sources expressed doubts that Russian forces would be able to rapidly advance and achieve operationally-significant breakthroughs immediately after seizing Vuhledar.
• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight how Ukraine is reducing Russia's battlefield artillery ammunition advantage, likely in part due to recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots.
• The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN OHCHR) issued its June-August 2024 report detailing Ukrainian civilian casualties, systemic Russian mistreatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), and limited Ukrainian mistreatment of Russian POWs. The UN OHCHR report highlighted the difference between official Russian and Ukrainian reactions to the mistreatment of POWs, and Russian state media largely misrepresented the report by ignoring assessments about Russia's systemic mistreatment of Ukrainian POWs.
• The Russian federal budget for 2025-2027 has carved out funding to support online platforms belonging to a prominent Kremlin propagandist and a former opposition outlet, further highlighting the Kremlin's efforts to adapt its propaganda machine to Russians’ growing reliance on social media for information.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar.
• Russian authorities are reportedly planning to increase recruitment within Russian pre-trial detention centers.

today's losses