Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Chinas coast guard enters arctic for first time for patrol with Russia

m.economictimes.com/news/defence/chinas-coast-guard-enters-arctic-for-the-first-time-for-patrol-with-russia/articleshow/113869388.cms

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

U.S. President Joe Biden may agree to advance the status of Ukraine's NATO membership bid before leaving office in January, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Oct. 1, citing an unnamed Western official. https://kyivindependent.com/biden-may-advance-ukraines-nato-membership-bid-status-ft-reports/

NATO lacks adequate air defenses, military mobility, ammunition, and the mindset to be fully ready for a large-scale conventional war, retired U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said on Oct. 2. https://kyivindependent.com/hodges-russia-nato/

⚡️Ukrainian forces withdraw https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-withdraw-from-vuhledar/ from Vuhledar, military announces.

⚡️ Russia's Crimean Bridge defenses are reportedly washing up on shore https://kyivindependent.com/russias-crimean-bridge-defenses-are-reportedly-washing-up-on-shore/
Plastic and metal barrels connected by metal frames were spotted littering the beach in Kerch on the occupied peninsula.

French-German defense company KNDS has opened an office in Kyiv to support Ukraine carry out the domestic maintenance and repair of land systems and produce artillery ammunition, the company announced on Oct. https://kyivindependent.com/knds-opens-subsidiary-in-ukraine/

Neither side has political will to solve conflict.' Explaining Ukrainian-Polish deteriorating relations https://kyivindependent.com/historical-grievances-resurface-in-polish-ukrainian-relations-threatening-to-stall-kyivs-eu-accession/
Relations between Ukraine and Poland have turned sour. Again. And the tune is much the same – a World War II massacre that has been at the center of bilateral relations between the two countries since the 1990s.

⚡️Ukraine boosts defense production https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-boosts-defense-production-successfully-tests-ballistic-missile-zelensky-says/ successfully tests ballistic missile, Zelensky says.
"In the first half of this year alone, Ukraine produced 25 times more artillery and mortar ammunition than in the entire year of 2022," Zelensky said at the second international defense industry forum in Kyiv.

⚡️ Estonia's planned 'war tax' https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-war-tax/ unprecedented, defense minister says.

⚡️Russia desperate https://kyivindependent.com/russia-desperate-to-recruit-workers-at-defense-plants-amid-personnel-shortage-bbc-reports/ to recruit workers at defense plants amid personnel shortage, BBC reports.
More than 90,000 vacancies for defense industry jobs appeared on Russian job portals between Aug. 15 and Sept. 15, with companies offering triple the average regional salary for workers with high-demand specialties.

Investigation: Shattering secrecy of Putin’s top spy chief (https://kyivindependent.com/investigation-shattering-secrecy-of-putins-top-spy-chief/
Korolev, the second-in-command at Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), has hidden the details of his life and identity so well that even the basics like his birth date and appearance are mixed up or appear to have been invented entirely.

⚡️Ukrainian Armor to produce 155mm shells https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-armor-to-produce-155mm-shells-using-czechoslovak-groups-technology-components/ using Czechoslovak Group's technology, components.

⚡️US sanctions https://kyivindependent.com/us-sanctions-russia-based-cybercrime-group-evil-corp/ Russia-based cybercrime group 'Evil Corp.'

⚡️Number of Ukrainians willing to join Ukrainian Legion https://kyivindependent.com/number-of-ukrainians-willing-to-join-ukrainian-legion-in-poland-too-small-minister-says/ in Poland 'too small,' minister says.

Georgian President on Russia's influence on her country
In an exclusive interview at the Warsaw Security Forum, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili highlights Georgia’s stalled EU accession, rising anti-Western rhetoric, and the ruling party’s troubling alignment with Russian interests, while affirming Georgian people’s support for Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine evacuates https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-evacuates-179-people-from-lebanon/ 179 people from Lebanon.

⚡️1.5 million Ukrainian children at risk of being deported https://kyivindependent.com/1-5-million-ukrainian-children-at-risk-of-being-deported-by-russia-ombudsman-says/ to Russia, ombudsman says.
Russia has already abducted more than 20,000 children since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said. Less than 400 of them have been returned home, according to the Children of War database.

⚡️Updated: Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia kills https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-zaporizhzhia-kills/ 1 person, injures 18.

⚡️Russian attacks https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-injure-over-past-day-2/ against Ukraine kill 7, injure 50 over past day.

⚡️589 civilians killed in Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/589-civilians-killed-in-ukraine-in-summer-2024-by-russias-war-un-reports/ in summer 2024 by Russia's war, UN reports.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ - OCT 2, 2024
■ Decreased activity; engagements & casualties below 7-day average
■ Equipment losses with the exception of vehicles also below average
■ Relatively few strikes on both sides; unfavorable strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The United States is working on unblocking a $50 billion loan for Ukraine using Russia's frozen assets, according to U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.
Brink mentioned that this could be achieved with the help of European and other partners by the end of 2024

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has expressed support for Ukraine's potential use of long-range Western weapons to strike targets within Russia. He emphasized that the decision to allow such actions lies with the countries supplying the weapons.

At a press conference, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Russia has suffered 500,000 casualties, including killed and wounded, in the war in Ukraine. While acknowledging that Russia has made some battlefield gains, Rutte emphasized that it has come "at a very high price."

The occupiers in the Kherson region have announced the conscription of men into the Russian army. Saldo, a representative of the occupation administration, stated that the conscripts would be assigned to units within the Southern Military District.

According to reports from Russian media, Russia is preparing to send tens of thousands of pre-trial defendants to fight in Ukraine, even though the law allowing this has not yet been signed by President Putin.
The source mentioned that out of approximately 60,000 defendants, about 40% are expected to be sent to the front lines, suggesting that nearly 24,000 could be drawn into the conflict.

Russian soldiers shoot 16 Ukrainian POWs near Pokrovsk, Donetsk region. The crime was captured on video by a drone.

UN: Russia Tortures Ukrainian Prisoners at All Stages, Involving Rape, Beatings, and Electric Shocks
According to a UN report, Russia has subjected Ukrainian prisoners to torture throughout their captivity, including rape, beatings, and electric shocks. The report highlights that many of these documented abuses involved personnel from various government agencies, suggesting a high level of coordination.

Ukrainian Performer Disqualified After Protesting Russian Juror at Italian Festival
Ukrainian circus artist Anna Petrenko was disqualified from the Salieri Circus Award in Italy after protesting the inclusion of a Russian juror. Petrenko objected to the presence of Maxim Nikulin, son of Soviet and Russian actor Yuri Nikulin, in the jury.
Maxim Nikulin, who leads the Moscow Circus, is a known supporter of Putin's regime and the Russian military.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

25-year old FPV-pilot Tymofiy Orel [47th mech. Brigade] was awarded https://t.me/brygada47/1017 the Order of the "Golden Star" with the title of Hero of Ukraine
From January to May 2024 he eliminated: 434 killed, 346 wounded, 42 tanks, 44 BMPs, 10 MT-LB, 28 BTR/APCs.

In the morning, Russian forces attacked port and border infrastructure in the Izmail district of Odesa region with strike drones, resulting in two drivers being injured, one of whom is a Turkish citizen

In Berdyansk, collaborator judge Vitaliy Lomeiko was found dead
Lomeiko was a judge of the Chernihiv District Court in the Zaporizhzhia region, who stayed in the occupied city of Berdyansk. He violated his oath during the war and collaborated with the Russians. Today, a car he was in exploded near the port.

📹Austria and the Far-Right: How Will This Affect Ukraine?
Far-right movements are on the rise across Europe, and the recent elections in Austria are a major wake-up call. The Austrian Freedom Party, with its roots in a Nazi past, secured 29% of the vote. This is not just a political victory but a potential challenge for the whole of Europe and especially for Ukraine.

Stunning sand art in honor of Ukrainian Defenders Day by Portuguese artist Vitor Raposo

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Where Do the Biden and Trump Administrations Stand on US Relations With Central Asia?
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/39675

Only 2 weeks after Ukraine's strikes targeting a few ammo depots deep in Russian territory and Russia's troops already complaining of "shell hunger".
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39907

How Russians have made a joke of more than 20,000 sanctions that were meant to slow Russia's war machine.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39921

⚡️Russians reporting that they've lost an Su-25 jet and pilot.

Luukas Ilves, one of the leading experts in digital technologies and cybersecurity in Estonia, has joined the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine.
Luukas Ilves has become my advisor, said Minister of Digital Transformation, Fedorov.

Russia Kills 589 Ukrainian Civilians and Injures 2,685 in Just Three Months
According to the UN, the number of victims among the innocent civilian population in Ukraine has increased by 45% in the three months of summer 2024.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine continues efforts to expand domestic production of significant military equipment and maintain its drone advantage over Russia.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov condemned the Israel Defense Force's (IDF) ground operation in southern Lebanon during a meeting with the Lebanese ambassador to Russia on October 1.
• Latvian forces enhanced air defense near the Russian border following a recent Russian drone crash in the country.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued assaults in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove, Siversk, and Vuhledar and east and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian defense enterprises are recruiting tens of thousands of new workers due to acute personnel shortages amid increased production of weapons due to the war in Ukraine.

I've decided to 'attend' David Knowles' funeral virtually. Its incredibly moving, he was clearly deeply loved. Lots of 'attendees' from Ukraine too which says a lot for the work that he did. If only we could all be so impactful by the time we're 32.

That's amazing Jelly, I didn't know that was a possibility. How completely lovely

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Biden, Xi to hold https://kyivindependent.com/biden-xi-to-hold-phone-discussion-in-coming-days/ phone discussion in coming day

⚡️New NATO Secretary-General Rutte arrives in Kyiv on unannounced visit. https://kyivindependent.com/new-nato-secretary-general-stoltenberg-rutte-arrives-in-kyiv-on-unannounced-visit/

‘Human safari’: Kherson civilians hunted down by Russian drones https://kyivindependent.com/human-safari-kherson-civilians-hunted-down-by-russian-drones/
In the ravaged city of Kherson, where Ukraine-controlled territory and Russian forces are separated by the Dnipro River, civilians are routinely targeted by Russian kamikaze drones. Terrified locals refer to the new strategy as “a human safari.”
“Drones are now flying in groups and attacking everything that moves,” said Serhii, a volunteer-turned-taxi driver. “Our charity hub had to close because trucks can no longer deliver humanitarian aid. This has not only cut off critical supplies but also crippled local businesses that rely on transportation. It’s scary to think what will happen in winter when food and fuel shortages could escalate into a full-blown crisis.”

⚡️Ukraine hits Russian long-range radar system with US-supplied ATACMS, military says. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-russian-long-range-radar-system-with-us-supplied-atacms-military-says/

Drones operated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) attacked the Borisoglebsk military airfield in Russia's Voronezh Oblast overnight on Oct. 3, a source in the SBU told the Kyiv Independent.
According to the source, Russian warehouses containing guided aerial bombs, hangars with Su-35 and Su-34 aircraft, and aviation fuel storage facilities were targeted https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-attack-russian-airfield-in-voronezh-oblast-targets-guided-bombs-warehouses-source-claims/

⚡️Russian proxies in occupied Kherson Oblast announce forced conscription https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxies-in-occupied-kherson-oblast-announce-forced-conscription-of-ukrainians/ of Ukrainians.
From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, men aged 18 to 30 living in occupied Kherson Oblast will be subject to conscription into the Russian military for a period of 12 months.

⚡️US names Russia, Iran, China as biggest threats to presidential election.
https://kyivindependent.com/us-names-russia-iran-china-as-biggest-threats-to-presidential-election/

⚡️USAID provides $237 million in humanitarian aid https://kyivindependent.com/usaid-provides-237-million-in-humanitarian-aid-to-ukraine-launches-rehab4u-initiative/ to Ukraine, launches Rehab4U initiative.

US company AeroVironment https://kyivindependent.com/us-company-aerovironment-plans-to-start-producing-switchblade-loitering-munitions-in-ukraine/ plans to start producing Switchblade loitering munitions in Ukraine

⚡️Ukraine's military intelligence hacks https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-attacks-russian-financial-industrys-online-network-source-says/ Russian finance industry, source says. Russian banks Alfa-Bank and Otkritie Bank, as well as Rostelecom, Russia's largest provider of digital services, were targeted.

⚡️Putin signs law allowing criminal defendants https://kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-law-allowing-criminal-defendants-to-join-the-military/ to join the military.

⚡️UPDATED: Russian guided bomb hits apartment building in Kharkiv, wounding https://kyivindependent.com/russian-guided-bomb-hits-high-rise-in-kharkiv-wounding-at-least-8/ at least 12. One of the injured victims was a three-year-old girl.

⚡️Russian attacks https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-7-injure-50-over-past-day/ against Ukraine kill 2, injure 41 over past day.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪- OCT 3, 2024
■ Engagements & casualties stay below 7-day avg ■ Equipment losses with the exception of vehicles also below average
■ Janovsky: 54 🇷🇺 36 🇺🇦 added (1.5:1); 30-day ratio at 2.1x
■ Improved strike ratio but still in double-digits

Yes they sent the link in the podcast notes yesterday. It was a beautiful service, deeply religious. His casket was donated by the Ukrainian embassy and the floral arrangement was sunflowers.

His little brother spoke of a wonderfully caring and well read young man with an infection sense of humour and a penchant for whisky and hillwalking.

Dom and Frances both did speeches, in his Dom called out the Kremlin essentially saying he knew they were watching even if they claim they don’t know who David was.

They closed by saying Slava Ukraini 💙💛

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Belgium to Provide Ukraine with 3 Caesar Self-Propelled Guns
Belgium has announced it will finance and transfer three Caesar self-propelled guns to Ukraine, according to RTBF, citing the country's Ministry of Defense.
The exact delivery dates have yet to be determined.

"Ukrainian Armored Vehicles" Partners with Czech CSG Group to Produce 155-mm Ammunition
"Ukrainian Armored Vehicles" has signed an agreement with the Czech CSG Group to begin producing 155-mm ammunition in Ukraine, according to Militarnyy.
Production is set to start in 2025, with part of the ammunition manufactured in the Czech Republic and the rest in Ukraine. The projected production volumes are 100,000 rounds in 2025 and 300,000 rounds in 2026.

Ukraine to Boost Production of Drones, Long-Range Weapons, and Ballistic Missiles in 2025
Ukraine plans to significantly increase its production of drones, long-range weapons, and ballistic missiles in 2025, according to Rustem Umerov, speaking at the DFNC2 forum in Kyiv.

Hackers Steal Data of 65,000 Dutch Police Officers, Russia Suspected
Hackers have stolen the personal data of 65,000 police officers in the Netherlands, including names, email addresses, and phone numbers, according to NOS. Prosecutors, probation officers, and lawyers were also targeted. [and home addresses too]
In a letter to parliament, Dutch Justice Minister David Van Veel suggested that the attack was likely state-sponsored rather than the work of a private hacking group.
Sources indicate that Russia and Iran have attempted similar actions in the past and are suspected in this case as well. A local police representative pointed out past instances where these countries interfered in legal cases, notably Russia's involvement in the MH17 trial and Iran's cooperation with criminal organizations, though these suspicions remain speculative.

PACE Unanimously Adopts Resolution on Missing Persons and Prisoners of War
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has unanimously approved the resolution titled "Missing Persons, Prisoners of War, and Civilians in Captivity as a Result of Russian Federation Aggression Against Ukraine."

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The General Staff: Defense Forces struck the Russian “Nebo-M” radar station with ATACMS ballistic missiles.
The General Staff noted that the destruction of this station would contribute to the effective use of Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles. It would also reduce the Russian army’s ability to detect and intercept aerodynamic and ballistic targets.
According to the military, Russia has only 10 systems of this type remaining, with each costing over $100 million. [more info on this]

Zelensky: Western partners refuse to shoot down Russian missiles near their borders with Ukraine, while in the Middle East, "during criminal Iranian strikes, the international coalition acts together."
At the same time, the president thanked the countries that are helping Ukraine with air defense systems, particularly expressing gratitude to Romania for its Patriot system.

During the night, air defense forces shot down 78 out of 105 Shahed attack drones launched by Russia

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

NASA FIRMS data confirming large fires at Russia's Borisoglebsk airfield in the Voronezh region after overnight visits from Ukraine's homegrown drone fleet.

More of Putin's "red lines" found to be meaningless as Israel bombards Russia's Khmeimim airbase in Syria with 30 missiles, detonating for hours.
The attack lasted for 45 minutes in today's early morning hours.

From the pre-war population of 42,000,000, Ukraine's demographic decline set to hit only 25,200,000 by 2051.
www.kyivpost.com/post/39936

The Future of Rehabilitation Being Pioneered in Ukraine
Superhumans Center aspires to provide a portion of the tens of thousands of Ukrainians in need of prostheses not only with limbs, but also a path back to normal life.

Again proving that Russians only need to purchase a few select politicians to paralyze a nations's foreign policy, Croatia’s President Zoran Milanovic has defied his government by refusing to approve the previously agreed participation of Croatian soldiers in the NATO mission to support Ukraine, citing concerns about the "conflict spreading to Croatia" and a "desire to ensure the safety of this Balkan country."

Wow @Igotjelly 🇺🇦💛

Russian authorities are reportedly planning to increase recruitment within Russian pre-trial detention centers.

This is a red flag for me. In places where prison labour is an important part of the local workforce, historically it's not unknown for local sheriffs to detain people purely to meet demand for that labour.

Recruiting from pre-trial detention means the authorities don't have to go through the motions of getting people convicted and jailed for trivial infractions – all they have to do is charge people, with stuff that won't stand up at trial.

So this provides a legal figleaf for covert mobilisation.

Zelensky: Western partners refuse to shoot down Russian missiles near their borders with Ukraine, while in the Middle East, "during criminal Iranian strikes, the international coalition acts together."

Fair and valid comment/observation.

This is a red flag for me. In places where prison labour is an important part of the local workforce, historically it's not unknown for local sheriffs to detain people purely to meet demand for that labour.

This happened in Solzhenitsyn's time.

I noticed that too. If only Ukraine had Israel's fire power and better support from Allies ...

I think that the readings etc from David’s funeral are part of the podcast today.

The Saudis are miffed with Russia for exceeding their OPEC production quota, so they're going to cut prices and boost production to take market share away from them. Needless to say, this is very bad news for Putin.

Putin’s war economy faces pain if Saudis sink global oil prices - A Saudi move to grab market share will squeeze the Kremlin’s finances, experts argue.

The General Staff: Defense Forces struck the Russian “Nebo-M” radar station with ATACMS ballistic missiles.

I guess it missed the missiles coming right at it. 😂

Now that the Ukrainians are regularly striking high value targets inside Russia with their own weapons, the Russians have some hard choices to make about where to deploy their limited air defense assets. This news item doesn't give the location of the radar station that was hit, but if ATACMS was used, we can assume it was in occupied Ukraine or very close to the border. I hope they leave them in Ukraine, where they're easier to attack with NATO-supplied weapons.

@MissConductUS I thought it is almost impossible to intercept ATACMS. I guess at least that radar station could see it on their screens as the missiles came at it.

The one good thing (if there is one) about the possible war between Iran and Israel is that Iran might decide to keep more of their ballistic missiles and shaheds at home.

blueshoes
The one good thing (if there is one) about the possible war between Iran and Israel is that Iran might decide to keep more of their ballistic missiles and shaheds at home.

That was my immediate thought as well.

I think a counter to that is that there will a decreasing global stock of air defence ammo for Ukraine to draw from.

@notimagain is probably a better resource for this question than I am, but my understanding is that it depends on the flight profile of the missile and the geometry of the intercept. If the missile's flight path crosses in front of the radar and surface to air missile the radar will see a large radar cross section and depending on the range, have some time to set up and take a shot. If the missile is coming directly at the radar station and is moving at ballistic speed, it sees a small radar cross section (so harder to detect and lock onto), and has less time to set up and take a shot. There's also the closing rate - the speed at which the attacking and defending missile approach each other. Since both are moving at Mach 2 or better, if the attacking missile is coming directly at the radar it is only within the kill radius of the SAM for a few milliseconds. If the SAM and the target ballistic missile are on converging courses, the time within the kill radius will be longer.

So, it's a bit complicated. 😀 And I am certainly not an expert.

That's a fair point about Iran wanting to keep more of their weapons at home. Still, the other side of the coin is that Israel is now using air defense interceptors, artillery shells, and other munitions at a prodigious rate, and those will have to be replenished from American stockpiles. So, Ukraine and Israel are effectively competing for resources now, which is certainly not good. The US military has historically stored a lot of munitions in Israel for Israeli use, but I suspect those are being used up very rapidly.

I think a counter to that is that there will a decreasing global stock of air defence ammo for Ukraine to draw from.

Absolutely agree.

We’re quite rightly not privy to rounds fired, build rates in the factories and resultant replenishment rates to the front line but it takes more than a few hours to knock up a new air to air or surface to air missile so stocks will be dwindling.