It's not over until the Cat Lady sings - Trump thread #133

[Spandauer]

Bigly Thanks to BruceAndNosh for the thread title.

Hopefully people can open this link OK.
https://x.com/amy_siskind/status/1818015701023735951?s=46&t=sQEeBsNjiTta_B_D1Qh6IQ

Previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/politics/5058103-trump-trial-time-banish-all-memories-of-mueller

I saw a clip with him talking down the Medal of Honor .

That will go down well.

Thus far, from across the pond, all I am seeing is attacks on Trump, his toadies and their weird ideas. I suspect team Harris is well briefed with a spread of historical evidence to read from. Including our own Brexit vote which taught the world how negative campaigning Just Doesn't Work.

They're all bloggers and influencers.

"Donald Dump"😂

Using a UK site to spread the algorithmic word.

Who knew the playbook would be as simple as just aping Donald - he really doesn't like it. I wonder if there is a reality where he and Liz Truss are somehow half siblings ? Admittedly it would be the worst Sci-Fi franchise ever.

And I have to ask. WTF is going on with JD Vance and the eyeliner ? Is he hoping for a career in some 90s goth tribute band when they lose ?

I noted on the Rest is Politics US from today that Katty and Anthony came to the conclusion that this is still Trump's race to lose. I'd be interested to see what people thought and whether they agree - my sense was that their view largely comes from the usual issue of being able to win the popular vote and lose at the electoral college level. Maybe I'm just biased but I just don't know how Trump on his current for can win.

They did however raise the concern, which I share, that she won't do well when it comes to the debates.

Yes. Walz keeps reiterating that Trump voters are his family and neighbours, and that he wants to represent them too. He said in one interview that in his state, they too benefit from the universal free school meals he started, etc.

I'm less sure. Somethings things "just change" this isn't 2020 or 2016. Lots of unseen subtle cogs and gears have moved, engaged and disengaged. Historical comparisons can only take you so far.

There's also "the long run". There are vanishing few pivotal moments in history when you really dig into it. It's just that's the way we like to tell stories. It's also why appeasement is a shit strategy - it changes nothing in the long run.

Returning to Brexit, as a recent example. I suspect that even had the result be 52% remain, we would still not be in the EU now, in 2024.

Seems appropriate

I share the concern that Harris still has a lot to do/people to convince. A lot can happen in 2.5 months as we know from our own election experiences in the UK!

This article in the Washington Post suggests that currently she's doing pretty well.

As to the debates - I presume she'll be tutored extensively but whether she can effectively talk over Trump/shut him down - who knows?
Why did Rest Us Politics US think she will struggle in the debates?

Harris has opened up a second path to victory, according to The Post’s polling model
The Democratic nominee could win in the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt and get to the White House, while Donald Trump must win in both geographic regions to triumph.
wapo.st/3WLWLyA

"Why did Rest Us Politics US think she will struggle in the debates?"

It was essentially around her tendency to waffle and speak in word salads. They acknowledged that what she's doing at the moment in her big speeches is really effective but noted that she's still pretty scripted. They think there's a risk that she struggles to get her points across, even when she's steeped in the detail of the policy. In essence there is a sense from some that she's the new Obama but she simply isn't the orator that he is.

I really hope that she proves them wrong. I did like the idea that she might borrow the messaging from the Obama campaign of bringing the country together, essentially making the point that there are no red or blue states, only shades of purple.

They agreed that Trump probably still has a 55% chance of victory, which seems to me to be low compared to where he was with Biden but surely that's based on her being in a moment of maximum ascent following Biden's resignation? Will she be able to sustain that?

They agreed that Trump probably still has a 55% chance of victory,

I'd be curious to see their workings on that. It has a slightly "pulled out of thin air" ring to it.

I think from memory it was based on discussions with people on the Trump and Harris/Biden teams as well as looking at the polls. So yes a bit plucked out of thin air but informed by people who know their stuff - as is the case with so much in politics and polling.

This is really worth a watch. I find it terrifying that Trump might get in. He is just a Project 2025 pawn. He wants for his lawsuits to go away, to make huge amounts of money, and to be seen as a powerful dictator, and to pay back his enemies. No other reason. He is a useful idiot for powerful and unpleasant people who will destroy freedoms in America.

It's long, it's 9 minutes to watch but it does explain what might happen if he does get in.

https://x.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1824246796391940555

Well, time will tell.

I was curious as last reporting I saw was Harris was pulling a clear lead in a lot of the swing states to the extent that if the election were today, she'd win by a landslide. I rather glazed over at the technical discussions of how the various outcomes could be achieved. Although it seems that just relying on one rigged state (Georgia) now won't carry it for the Florida man.

If she wins, does she get to certify her own election ? Is that a VPs job (thinking of Pence) ?

Oh the irony…as if Kamala’s opponent didn’t waffle on about Hannibal Lecter, having bigger crowds than Martin Luther King, etc.

Well this is true don’t forget the sharks!

I think the VP does certify…George Bush Sr went from VP to President. I was in primary school, so don’t recall who certified.

Odd, it looks as if only hours later, Scaramucci spoke to A.N.Other 'news' channel and the headline there reads: Scaramucci on Trump: "He's going to lose because he's getting boring"
I haven't listened to the latest TRIP US yet so maybe he already mentioned that there and this isn't news to you.

I do find sometimes there are discrepancies between what he says on TRIP and on X. I wonder if it’s more a sense of Harris shouldn’t be complacent?

Spandauer
Just seen a clip where he's complaining about Kamala's portrait on the cover of Time magazine - again!

The moment I saw that I was sure Trump would hate it, loudly and repeatedly.

I get what they're saying when they say 'the election is Trump's to lose'. To me it's just emphasizing that we Dems simply cannot be complacent in any way, shape, or form. Harris/Walz are going to have to be on their top game no matter how deranged Trump/Vance are. We know where complacency got us in 2016, and how we sweated the swing states until the wee hours in 2020. We 'know it', but it needs to be seared on our foreheads until this election is over.

So maybe it's also fair to say that 'the election is Harris' to win', also. But she and Walz are going to have to fight a bit harder to win it than Trump is going to have to fuck up to lose it. Both of them have their solid 'base'. What each of them needs to do is win the undecideds, the neverTrumpers, and the 'never the other Partys'.

What’s your sense, do you think you think she’ll pull it out of the bag and win? I’m always curious how things ‘feel’ from the other side of the Atlantic!

As far as Kamala doing debates, I'm sure she's prepping harder than she's ever prepped in her life.

Oh, and I'm glad to see the Dems taking a leaf out of Trump's book as far as making jibes and 'spicy comments'. It's about time!.

Laughing at him, loudly and in public, is the way to go. It rattles him into being even more absolutely stupid than usual.