Thread 51 Sunak: A William Hill to die on

[DuncinToffee]

Previoust thread

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5100698-thread-50-sunak-civil-war-what-civil-war?page=40&reply=136272126

10 days to go

Well, to be fair, they also seem to avoid most of MN too.

Our area is now showing 80%+ chance of Reform winning.....last week is was pretty evenly splint between them, Labour and Independent.....preferred that version!

That's scary @Darkbutstarrynight

I know this isn't really relevant to this thread but does anyone think it's at all likely Biden will step down soon? I can't stand the thought of him continuing and giving the victory to Trump.

Is that according to Electoral Calculus? Because they seem to be having some issues.

@BIossomtoes Yes and I really hope they're having issues......but also possible it could be true as probably outing, but it's Lee Anderson at the moment so who knows :(

Oh fuck. Poor you.

I was talking to some journalists on our last holiday who were under the distinct impression Democrats want their second in command, Kamala Harris to get a shot this time around. There was a vague notion that ill health would be causal for her to step up last minute. To be fair it could happen to both sides at this rate. Watching anything with the two off them is pretty painful and it feels like either of them could clutch their chest at any moment. They had been invited to a rather prominent mogul's wedding, so I have to admit I gave their speculation some weight.

Feeling more even now - @dontcallmelen I think I am in a similar place in that I have a lot of new meds and feel a bit all over the place on them. I also had a vivid dream last night featuring my best friend who took her life recently and think I woke up a bit emotional. Hopefully we both level out soon

Me three. I have also been called a TRA,
a man and a liar for expressing concern because my ngc children have been aggressively confronted about being in the wrong toilets (they were not)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Straight out of the fascist playbook

Re bed blocking, Labour have said they will buy beds in care homes so that people can be discharged and free up hospital spaces.

they are so predictable, it hurts.

If it does come about this is some Dispatches undercover reporting style expose though...I mean, it's so hard to tell with politics at the moment it is depressing.
I actually think I have more faith that the standard of ethics required for investigative journalism is higher than in politics at the moment 😬either way though.

I bloody hope it isn't true. Channel 4 will be in deep trouble.

I think I must have missed a lot on this because it's not registered at all with me. Obviously beds are a basic requirement, but the staffing and retention is a huge issue that has been exacerbated by Brexit and staff leaving and those remaining not able to survive on the wages.

Any chance you can post the text of the Telegraph article @SerendipityJane ?

@MissMarplesNiece agree on reaping what has been sown. Reform will have no need of Braverman. I laughed when she said Farage could join the Tories. She is naive.

@TaraTories im so very sorry for your loss my sincere sympathy.

Wes Streeting made an announcement about it last week. But I agree both main parties have a huge gap in their plans re social care. I think the Tories because it pretty much destroyed their majority in 2017 and Labour because fixing social care requires huge structural investment and some very unpopular decisions about how we pay for it. It suits both parties to stay quiet about it. Labour have said they want to do the work necessary to build a National Care Service. I think this is a two term commitment at minimum. And if the Tories got close to sorting themselves out ideally it should be a bipartisan issue to resolve it. In the next ten years the baby boom generation will start to get into serious care needs and the care bubble will really burst. Gen X-ers like me need this sorted simply because we don't want to see our demented parents dying in pain and alone.

Reform can say what they like. The IFS described their manifesto as fanciful

I guarantee it will be a lot more if Sunak is in charge. And, with the proposed welfare benefits cuts, child poverty rates will be even more appalling.

I think they are worried about the precedents set by Kinnock and Brown where they acknowledged that higher tax would be needed and subsequently lost elections.

At least he's read the Equality Act 2010. Sunak has managed to come up with a policy entirely based around making an amendment to the EqA which, um, makes it say what it already says.

I think they’re being very clever. Tax is the only ground Sunak’s got left - and that’s shaky, given the Tories’ record. Labour has been doing a huge amount of work quietly in the background with business and the City to get financial institutions on side. The national debt is costing us £8.6 billion a month, how about if they’ve been quietly renegotiating that with the banks? Just think how much money that could free up.

The old mantra is more tax, more cuts or more borrowing - perhaps there’s a fourth way?

The standard for channel 4 news is I hope.

Lee Anderson would have been one of the seats I could see reform getting because he’s the incumbent. But who the hell is looking at LA and thinking ‘yup, I want more of that as my MP.’