Thread 50 Sunak: Civil war, what civil war?

[DuncinToffee]

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https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5095535-thread-49-sunak-he-left-them-on-the-beaches?page=40&reply=136144491

Just over 2 weeks to go

Are they still campaigning?
I know Sunak did the debate, but where are the appearances in constituencies, couldn't he get an orange box and work a crowd like John Major used to?

Where is the rest of he cabinet? Have the press given up reporting on them are they all in Boris' fridge?

My feeling is they’ve pretty much given up. I wonder who Laura K will have on tomorrow?

I agree the Conservatives have thrown in the towel - they are now working on their next headbanging move.
Which is why the media are so delighted to have Farage around.

I genuinely think the Conservatives would have gained votes if they had found the gumption to stand up to Farage.

Farage will be delighted at all the publicity that his Putin comments have generated

As far as he is concerned, any publicity is good publicity

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crggy73m2ero

8 Reform candidates have made offensive remarks.

Some of those offensive remarks wouldn't seem out of place coming out of Frank Hester's mouth - all they need is £15 million and they could just say sorry for the rudeness and it could all go away.

DS1 was complaining during the week that his neighbours have reform posters up.

he rents & house shares with 2 other lads so they have decided to put up LGBT posters.

Times long read. Conservative fundraiser at the Hurlingham Club - all talk is about the next leadership contest. Fiddling - or rather dancing and sipping champagne - whilst Rome burns etc, etc.

But what was interesting to me was -

'The electorate, McSweeney argues, is hugely volatile, with as many as five million voters either undecided or unconfirmed in their voting intention, while 100 seats are simply too close to call. Small shifts in behaviour have the potential to make huge differences to the outcome.'

I think there a dangerous complacency settling in.
Every vote does matter.

The narrative that Labour has won so make free with your vote overlooks undecided voters. L/Ds supposedly guaranteed in my constituency but I fear that people are assuming their neighbours will vote to get the Conservatives out so they don't have to.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/the-band-plays-on-as-hopes-and-fears-focus-on-the-undecided-r37jbdr89

The polls don't look hugely volatile

If the undecideds and uncertains all jump the same way, then they could be significantly different.

I suppose I am wondering what happens when voters think Labour are a sure thing - does that lead to shifts in GTTO voting patterns?

More betting at Tory HQ. From the Times - not online yet.

🚨 BREAKING: The Tories' chief data officer is now under investigation by the Gambling Commission after allegedly placing dozens of bets on the election date

What???
Bloody hell.

Surely if you genuinely want to be sure to GTTO you’re not going to take a risk on any of the minority parties. It’s got to be Labour or Libdem depending on where you live.

Did he write a Memo though...(should have put a bloody bet on it!)

I think a lot of Tory seats will go to Reform. Friend in Sevenoaks said 2 dads at the DC's sports were telling her it's because of "resources". Could be interesting.

I still think (hope?) that the reform polling won’t actually turn into seats.

I do too.

What does that even mean?

Predictive polls are of course just informed predictions, and when close are not to be relied upon, but in Sevenoaks, Reform are predicted to gain just 14.8% of the vote. Horrific that nearly 15 % would vote fascist, but not electorally important here.A couple of known people feels significant to anyone, but actually isn't.

Cons predicted 35.1%: could easily be beaten if LDems on 24.8% and Labour on 20.4% (45.2% total) could combine/reach an unstated agreement/people took notice of tactical voting.
Tactical.vote has no recommendation, but Electoral Calculus looks like Lib Dem is the way forward. If you want the Tory out, that is.

oh @DuncinToffee
What's occuring?

And me. Hopefully the Reform vote will be thinly and widely spread.

Was wondering the same thing

Not sure what is going on, MN won't let me post the Times sharelink in tweet

Tried posting this from https://x.com/paullewismoney/status/1804600510248341626

Gambling commission examining every bet over £20 on a July election for Conservative Party. Bets went up six fold in days before announcement. May I repeat though the spike in Clacton bets before NF declared? Please gamble responsibly.