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Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

991 replies

MagicFox · 09/05/2024 13:25

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

**
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265
blueshoes · 09/06/2024 14:22

Nothing to do with Ukraine.

RIP Dr Michael Mosley

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 09/06/2024 14:27

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Russia has reduced offensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast despite still regrouping troops in the area and eyeing a further advance, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov said on June 8. https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russia-reduces-offensive-operations-in-kharkiv-oblast/
Heavy fighting rages on for Vovchansk, a town occupied by Russian troops in 2022 – and now largely reduced to ruins by intense glide bomb attacks.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is scrapping plans to set up a $100 billion fund to aid Ukraine after facing rejection from alliance members, Bloomberg reported on June 7. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-stoltenberg-abandons-plan-to-set-up-100-billion-fund-for-ukraine-aid-after-pushback/

⚡️Ukraine hits Russian Su-57 jet for first time, military intelligence says https://kyivindependent.com/hur-ukraine-hit-su-57-jet-for-first-time/
The aircraft was reportedly damaged after a strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region in Southern Russia, 589 kilometers from the front line. @notimagain

⚡️Media: Orban's party becomes Google's biggest advertiser https://kyivindependent.com/orbans-party-biggest-spenders-of-google-advertising-in-eu/ in EU.
Fidesz and its politicians reportedly spent 2 million euros in five months, promoting anti-Western narratives. The party paid for six out of 10 most promoted videos.

⚡️Military intelligence: Collaborant https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-claims-kupiansks-ex-mayor-in-critical-condition-after-assassination-attempt-in-russia/ ex-mayor of Kupiansk in 'critical condition' after assassination attempt in Russia.
The life of Hennadii Matsehora, the former mayor of the city of Kupiansk in the country's northeast, was targeted on June 7 in the city of Stary Oskol in Belgorod Oblast, HUR reported in a Telegram post.

️Czechia won't send military instructors https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-wont-send-military-instructors-to-ukraine-defense-minister-says/ to Ukraine, defense minister says.
Czech Defense Minister Jana Cernochova voiced support for the France-led initiative but said that, unlike Czechia, such a move is practical for France and some other countries due to their distance from Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine to launch registry of mine-affected areas https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-launch-registry-of-mine-affected-areas/

⚡️Ukraine uses over 110 types of https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-army-takes-into-service-over-110-vehicles-since-march-2022/ vehicles on the battlefield.

⚡️Russia targets 103 settlements in Ukraine in past day, civilians killed and injured.
⚡️Russia attacks 11 communities in Sumy Oblast.
A woman rescued from under the rubble after a Russian missile strike in Poltava Oblast died in the hospital, regional governor Filip Pronin said on June 8.
⚡️Local authorities: 1 killed, 2 wounded by Russian shelling in Kherson Oblast.
⚡️Russian guided bomb attack on Kharkiv Oblast kills 1, injures 2.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

  • JUN 9, 2024
■ Casualties above average, engagements below ■ Equipment well above average; 7-day artillery losses at a record high & big tank losses ■ Fewer 🇷🇺 strikes; good strike ratio ■ Janovsky: 57 🇷🇺 21 🇺🇦 added; 30-day ratio at 2.5x

Governor: Russia reduces offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast

The statement comes nearly a month after Russia opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast’s border areas. Heavy fighting rages on for Vovchansk, a town occupied by Russian troops in 2022 – and now largely reduced to ruins by intense glide bomb attacks.

https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russia-reduces-offensive-operations-in-kharkiv-oblast

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 09/06/2024 14:35

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 09/06/2024 14:42

Bah, wrong key combination

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Putin will not stop in Ukraine, stated US President Joe Biden during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron.

For months, the Russian army made only limited gains on the battlefield against Ukrainian forces, which were short of weapons and ammunition. Now, as Kyiv receives billions of dollars worth of weapons from American and European allies, the space for a Russian breakthrough is narrowing, reports Bloomberg.
Russia's attempt to open a new front in northeastern Ukraine in the Kharkiv region already looks like it has failed to achieve Putin's goal of creating a buffer zone along the border. Ukraine claims that it is inflicting significant losses on Russian troops in the battles around Vovchansk.
Russian forces have made only modest advances since capturing Avdiivka in February at the cost of heavy casualties during months of fighting. They have been trying to capture Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region for several weeks.
"Ukraine is in a deep abyss because of the delay in the shipment of American weapons, and they are climbing out of that abyss. We saw how they resisted the Russian attack, and in a situation that is dynamically developing, weapons arriving on the battlefield in such a scale and in such quantities during the past few days and weeks, is of great importance," said US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

On June 8, 2024, a Su-57 multi-purpose fighter of the aggressor state was hit at the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region of the Russian Federation, located 589 kilometers from the combat line, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate.
The Su-57 is Moscow's most modern fighter, capable of striking with Kh-59 and Kh-69 missiles. Only a few units of this aircraft are in service with the Russian Aerospace Forces.

The USA, Germany, Italy, and Spain do not support Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to create a “coalition of instructors” to be sent to Ukraine, reports Welt.

In response to Putin's words about the alleged "illegitimacy" of the leader of Ukraine, Zelenskyy said that Putin's legitimacy is recognized only by Putin, and in Ukraine the president is elected by the people.

Ninety percent of Ukrainian prisoners of war are subjected to torture. So far, 13 places have been identified in the Russian Federation where Ukrainian prisoners are held, as well as 120 in the occupied territories, according to Ukraine's Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin in an interview with Deutsche Welle.

Russia is reportedly compelling young Africans to fight in the war against Ukraine, using threats of deportation, as detailed by Bloomberg. European officials estimate that thousands of migrants and foreign students have been coerced by the Kremlin into joining the fight alongside Russian forces, contributing to the recent offensive in the Kharkiv Region.
Moscow is replicating tactics initially employed by the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), recruiting foreigners in Russia on work visas. These individuals are detained and given a stark choice: face deportation or participate in the conflict. While some manage to bribe officials to avoid military service and remain in the country, many are forced to accept the military service deal.
The coercion of migrants and students into combat began at the start of the war, according to another European official. These conscripted forces are experiencing severe casualties, often used in high-risk offensive operations to shield more experienced units.
Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russia is conducting a widespread campaign to recruit foreign mercenaries from at least 21 countries, many of which are in Africa. These recruitment efforts promise attractive signing bonuses and salaries to entice recruits. Additionally, recruiters are targeting migrants and students who had previously sought work in Russia, sometimes luring them with false promises of lucrative jobs before forcing them into military training and deployment to the front lines.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
notimagain · 09/06/2024 15:08

@blueshoes

HI

If you have to train an Ukraine pilot from scratch to reach a high level of proficiency to be in a dogfight in that hostile environment, how long will that take?

It’s a fair question, Looks like we’re about to find the answer to that by way of experiment.

My hands on experience of the subject is way way past it’s expiry date but there certainly seem to be a lot of very perceptive stuff in that video…

If you asked me to look back a few years and ask how long would it take to switch someone off NATO fighter type A and put them on NATO type B, operating in the same single role, so air defence or ground attack, not both, and then get them up to what used to be known as Combat Ready Status I’d say maybe 6 months ‘ish minimum, more if you want to be up to speed as a multi-element.l

What the Ukrainian pilots are being asked to do is much much

more convoluted - start by get language proficiency up to speed> deprogram all the processes relevant to Russian aircraft (and their aircraft could certainly be odd) > get NATO thinking into their heads>learn to fly a modern type>learn how to plan and operate in multiple roles>fly enough to build adequate proficiency..

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 09/06/2024 15:12

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

99-year-old British World War II veteran tried to send https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/08/d-day-veteran-tried-to-send-russian-medal-back-over-ukraine/ Russian medal because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine
"I would have loved to return [the medal], but they prevented me from doing so. An award for courage signed by Putin. I am disgusted and disappointed," Penstone told The Telegraph.

🇸🇰 Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has criticized https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1036114737872826&set=a.401309864686653&type=3 the decision of Western countries to allow Ukraine to use their weapons to hit targets in Russia

🇭🇺Meanwhile, a massive opposition rally was held in Hungary to protest the government of Viktor Orban
Political newcomer Péter Magyar, who hopes to strike a blow against Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, mobilized tens of thousands of supporters in Budapest on Saturday ahead of the European Parliament elections.
This was reported https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-magyar-eu-election-b9b52cde7cbabb726ef3b9a7e837651e by AP.
Péter Magyar, who in a few months has created the strongest opposition party in Hungary, hopes to use a good result in Sunday's EU elections to propel himself and his movement to victory over Orban in the next national elections scheduled for 2026. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/21677* [a GIGANTIC rally] *

In Paris graffiti with coffins reading "French soldiers in Ukraine" was spotted. Three Moldovan citizens may be involved, and they have been detained.

Which aircraft is better, the F-16 or the Russian SU-34?

Satellite image of the strike on the SU-57

blueshoes · 09/06/2024 15:36

@notimagain thank you for the insight. Sounds like it will take a while to get the Ukraine pilots F16-ready.

Will it be easier on the French Mirage 2000-5?

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress that is a massive opposition rally in Hungary!

notimagain · 09/06/2024 15:54

blueshoes · 09/06/2024 15:36

@notimagain thank you for the insight. Sounds like it will take a while to get the Ukraine pilots F16-ready.

Will it be easier on the French Mirage 2000-5?

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress that is a massive opposition rally in Hungary!

Don’t think the Mirage would be any easier/quicker unless the Ukrainians opt to operate it in a single role.

WinterMorn · 09/06/2024 20:40

Not good

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
MagicFox · 09/06/2024 20:58

This turn to the far right everywhere makes my stomach turn. Why are people voting for this?!

OP posts:
PerkingFaintly · 09/06/2024 21:00

MagicFox · 09/06/2024 20:58

This turn to the far right everywhere makes my stomach turn. Why are people voting for this?!

Because every complex problem has a solution which is simple, direct, plausible — and wrong.

WinterMorn · 09/06/2024 21:03

I strongly recommend this book as an excellent read:

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
MagicFox · 09/06/2024 21:03

I'm worried about Germany too

OP posts:
Veldemia · 09/06/2024 21:04

MagicFox · 09/06/2024 21:03

I'm worried about Germany too

Scholz has exit polling numbers that look pretty alarming for his party.

notimagain · 09/06/2024 21:28

Veldemia · 09/06/2024 20:58

I can’t say this is unexpected. Since early this year, there have been many stories like the one linked about how unpopular his stance has become regarding foreign policy.

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/why-macrons-ukraine-offensive-unlikely-be-winner-at-home

I’d be a bit wary of trying to drag support for Ukraine, or a possible lack thereof, into what’s gone on in France tonight. Most people I know locally (I’m in southern France) are pretty supportive of Macron’s effort on that issue, but that POV was never going to translate into a large number of votes for Renaissance MEPs…

Just MHO of course but I reckon the voters here over the last few days in the Europeans were thinking much much much more about immigration and law and order than Manu’s foreign policy.

MissConductUS · 09/06/2024 21:58

Just MHO of course but I reckon the voters here over the last few days in the Europeans were thinking much much much more about immigration and law and order than Manu’s foreign policy.

It's very similar here in the United States. Biden will win or lose the election on inflation, immigration, and abortion rights. Ukraine is barely a blip in the polls when people are asked to rank the issues determining their votes.

notimagain · 09/06/2024 22:07

The much bigger concern now is the ability of Macron to continue to push through support for Ukraine if, or should that now be when, the RN (the party that was formerly papa Le Pen’s old right wing FN) plus their fellow travellers gain control of the Assemble National.

Been nasty stories circulating for some time now about who helps fund in part some of the French politicians and their parties…..

Usou · 09/06/2024 22:41

MagicFox · 09/06/2024 20:58

This turn to the far right everywhere makes my stomach turn. Why are people voting for this?!

Stratospheric immigration levels.

L1ttledrummergirl · 09/06/2024 23:26

Poverty, mismanagement of taxes. The rich getting richer at the expense of the poor, and blaming the most vulnerable in society creating a them and us dynamic.

Veldemia · 10/06/2024 09:58

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

PerkingFaintly · 10/06/2024 10:46

In particular, Putin can't stand the existence of liberal democracies.

Their very existence offers a visible alternative, threatening his career as authoritarian dictator-for-life.

This is one of the big reasons for the Russian troll-farms' behaviour of "sticking the knife into the cracks and wiggling." He actively works to break things – so that he can then say, "Look, that broke. Liberal democracies can't work."

A good (and horrible) example would is the repeated herding of refugees to the borders of countries Russia wishes to undermine, in the hope of overwhelming the system so he can then point and laught. There's been a recent example of that at the Russian border with Finland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67555626

If the refugees don't exist already... Russia creates them. This was one of the wins for Russia in its war in Syria.

The Raja-Jooseppi border post

Finland to close entire Russian border after migrant surge

The last open crossing, in the Arctic Circle, will close on Thursday night, the government says.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67555626

Igotjelly · 10/06/2024 11:16

The rise of populism and the right in Europe worries me immensely, however I also recognise that it reflects an electorate in Europe that are deeply disillusioned by the establishment and frankly have every right to feel that they’ve been failed. Putin may well be exploiting the cracks but the cracks are there regardless and that needs to be addressed. We and the centre ground generally shouldn’t write people off as stupid because they’ve been enticed by the right on the promise that things could be better for them. We should be taking a serious look in the mirror and asking genuine questions about why so many feel the pull of populism and what can be done to combat that.

PerkingFaintly · 10/06/2024 11:20

Of course, many other extremists and wannabe dictators-for-life are available. Some are managing to get themselves into power at the moment.

It all feels fun the day they get the key to the office, but once in they rarely continue to go well for either the dictator or the country. There's a reason why Republican politician Arnold Schwarzenegger, who grew up in Austria after WWII, says, “I've seen enough people throw away their future for hateful beliefs" and warns against ending up like the broken old Nazi men he grew up around.

Arnold Schwarzenegger tells Putin to "stop this war"

Subscribe to The Telegraph with our special offer: just £1 for 3 months.Start your free trial now:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/customer/subscribe/digitalsub/3...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWClXZd9c78

PerkingFaintly · 10/06/2024 11:21

Igotjelly · 10/06/2024 11:16

The rise of populism and the right in Europe worries me immensely, however I also recognise that it reflects an electorate in Europe that are deeply disillusioned by the establishment and frankly have every right to feel that they’ve been failed. Putin may well be exploiting the cracks but the cracks are there regardless and that needs to be addressed. We and the centre ground generally shouldn’t write people off as stupid because they’ve been enticed by the right on the promise that things could be better for them. We should be taking a serious look in the mirror and asking genuine questions about why so many feel the pull of populism and what can be done to combat that.

Oh yes, absolutely. I agree with this very strongly.

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