Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

**
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They sounded exactly like my family in Donetsk with whom I cut ties. Always throwing accusations (often fake) Ukraine of all sorts while Russia caN’t do wrong. It’s impossible to reason or argue with them. Their only goal is to stir shit.
I do love to be a member of “Ukraine fan club” though,
I’d give this latest newcomer 3 out of 5 for their effort 🥱

I’m a very proud member of the Ukraine fan club 🇺🇦

Bloody well said

I agree. I life lived in fear isn't a life worth living. But I do hope NATO countries have the sense to put themselves on a war footing in the hope of keeping WW3 at bay.
This new axis of evil which is attracting new members to the club (the Taliban for example) scares the bejeezers out of me.

I can’t be bothered debating Putinists. It’s a depraved, corrupt allegiance.

This new axis of evil which is attracting new members to the club (the Taliban for example) scares the bejeezers out of me.

/another rant

Same here. I truly see a real possibility that the world will step back in terms of human rights.

"Human Rights" are a lovely illusion - it's just a set of standards and values that in some areas of the world we've chosen to believe in. I think it's developed from an innate sense of fairness in the individual, and then enough individuals felt the same way that a slow development happened whereby that sense of fairness spread to become a cultural concept. It's a step further than believing laws applied to everyone, regardless of status or nationality, which didn't even happen until Roman times I believe.

I strongly suspect that the conceptualization of human rights is more prevalent in some countries than others, as well as the application of human rights laws.

This concept of human rights has developed a set of standards to aim to create a society where each individual can flourish, where the fundamental need for self-expression (as long as it's not at the expense of others) is allowed and where each person has the possibility to work hard and achieve their potential.

The widening of the axis of evil threatens that so deeply. The women in Iran, Afghanistan, the dissenters in China, the war-protesters in Russia ... the human potential is blighted and destroyed. They aren't even content with creating that situation in their own country - they want to spread it and destroy this golden, life-enhancing concept elsewhere!

I don't think our leaders are wary enough and they aren't being actual -leaders- enough to do something about the hybrid warfare, and they're doing little enough to significantly boost the military capacity of each country.

Kaja Kallas for EU President!

I do see that there is a real danger on this thread of jumping on people who are seriously misinformed. Edemummy isn't one of them though - when the actual facts of the missile incident in Poland and the Nazi incident in Canada were given by @notimagain, she didn't take it in and revise her stance. She just doubled down. Nor did she note that there are a number of Nazis in Russia and in their army ...

There is an unconfirmed report that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv direction is doing well https://ukrainetoday.org/07-jun-huge-victory-ukrainians-push-russians-out-of-strategic-heights-war-in-ukraine-explained/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky

Yes, I felt sorry for that poster when she first posted, thinking she had just been misinformed and that she maybe had a Facebook feed trickling nonsense over her.

In fact I had been going to post sympathising with her. It's not nice when you find out your sources have been withholding major parts of the story and left you hanging.

Then she was shown the rest of the story, rather than just her cherry-picked feed. She hasn't really coped with that.

I do appreciate it's difficult, even – perhaps especially – for people posting in good (but misled) faith.

Again, I completely agree! You articulate it all so well.

Although it is scary shit!

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️UN secretary general won't attend https://kyivindependent.com/u-n-secretary-general-to-snub-ukraines-peace-summit-in-switzerland/ Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland. [why, too busy celebrating the aftermath of Russia Language Day?]

Media: Hungary obstructs decision https://kyivindependent.com/media-hungary-obstructs-decision-to-start-eu-accession-talks-with-ukraine/ on Ukraine accession talks among EU members. [surprise!]

⚡️AFP: Still no G7 consensus https://kyivindependent.com/still-no-g7-consensus-over-using-frozen-russian-assets-for-ukraine/ over using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine

⚡️Putin claims https://kyivindependent.com/putin-claims-russia-has-increased-ammo-production-by-more-than-20-times/ Russia increased ammo production by more than 20 times.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin claimed on June 7 that his country had increased ammunition production by more than 20 times, and there is "no need" to use nuclear weapons to win in Ukraine.

⚡️US considering increasing https://kyivindependent.com/biden-considering-increasing-deployment-of-tactical-nuclear-weapons/ deployment of tactical nuclear weapons.
The United States may have to increase its deployment of strategic nuclear weapons amid growing threats from China, Russia, and other adversaries, a White House official said on June 7.

⚡️Bloomberg: Germany weighs sending https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-germany-considers-sending-one-more-patriot-defense-battery-to-ukraine/ one more Patriot air defense battery to Ukraine.

⚡️Russian media: St. Petersburg governor meets https://kyivindependent.com/st-petersburg-governor-meets-with-taliban-delegation/ with Taliban delegation.

The Netherlands will invest 400 million euros ($436 million) into a Swedish fund to produce infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine, Dutch media reported on June 7. https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-to-invest-436-million-in-swedish-fund-for-ifvs-for-ukraine/
The report did not specify the type of infantry fighting vehicle, but Ukraine and Sweden last year signed an agreement to start jointly producing the CV90, considered one of the best of its type in the world.

⚡️Macron: France to finalize coalition https://kyivindependent.com/france-to-finalize-coalition-to-send-foreign-instructors-to-ukraine-macron-says/ to send military instructors to Ukraine.
"We are not at war with Russia, and we do not want an escalation, but we want to do everything we can to help Ukraine resist. Is it an escalation when Ukraine asks us to train mobilized soldiers on its sovereign soil? No,” Macron said.

Ukraine's civilian death toll rose to 174 last month, the highest level in almost a year, amid increased missile and bomb attacks on population centers around Kharkiv, the U.N. human rights office announced on June 7. https://kyivindependent.com/un-monthly-civilian-death-toll-rises-to-highest-point-in-almost-a-year/

Constitutional Court contest not ideal but praised as fair and transparent https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-set-to-push-the-needle-forward-on-judicial-reform-following-better-than-expected-constitution-court-selection-process/ The process has been praised by anti-corruption activists and judicial experts as a more transparent and fair one compared to those held prior. [I wonder how good/bad the one before was. But it's a move in the right direction]

⚡️Estonia proposes https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-proposes-new-rules-preventing-non-citizens-from-buying-property-near-military-facilities/ new rules preventing non-citizens from buying property near military facilities.

⚡️UK Foreign Secretary Cameron held video call https://kyivindependent.com/uk-foreign-secretary-cameron-held-video-call-with-someone-impersonating-former-president-poroshenko/ with someone impersonating former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, the BBC and other media outlets reported on June 7, citing comments from the U.K.'s Foreign Office. [!!!]

Deer and boar could roam forests https://kyivindependent.com/deer-and-boar-could-roam-forests-in-the-kakhovka-reservoir-in-five-years/ in the Kakhovka reservoir in 5 years, head of national reserve says
In just one year, the tallest saplings tower up to five meters high and number 20 plants per square meter. The trees have guzzled up recent spring floods, helping their growth.

⚡️Who are the 5 Russian propagandists accused https://kyivindependent.com/5-russian-propagandists-referred-to-icc-heres-why/ of hate crimes against Ukraine?

⚡️Russia reportedly hit 2 Ukrainian oil depots https://kyivindependent.com/russia-hit-2-oil-depots-overnight-ukraines-company-says/ overnight.

⚡️At least 1 injured after Russian missile strike on house near Poltava.
⚡️Russia attacks civilian car in Kharkiv Oblast, injuring 2 women.
⚡️Russian forces attack 6 communities in Sumy Oblast.

⚡️Russian Defense Ministry claims Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's North Ossetia.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• JUN 8, 2024

■ Casualties & engagements around average ■ Equipment losses below average (7-day losses +20%) ■ 19 air defence systems hit in the last 7 days (2024 record matched) ■ Increased strikes on both sides; improved strike ratio

wow about Cameron talking to an imposter.

Also, interesting move by Estonia to limit foreigners buying land near military bases.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress
There have been one of two extremely close runs - more than one on the Defence Early Warning line and its secondary backups, one that's known about in Russia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

I have been quietly celebrating 26th September for many years. A small cake with a single candle...

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine will not accept territorial concessions to end the war, — Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is abandoning a plan to create a five-year aid fund for Ukraine due to resistance from alliance members, Bloomberg has learned. The fund was planned to be $100 billion.
Under the new proposal, which could win support from NATO defense ministers, allies would commit to spending at least $43 billion a year on lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine.

The Swiss government has allocated more than €60 million to support Ukraine in digitalization and e-governance over the next four years.

France begins training Ukrainian pilots and mechanics "literally in the next few days," says Macron.
The French president also declined to disclose the number of Mirage 2000-5 aircraft that will be transferred to the Defense Forces, to avoid providing information to the enemy.

The Japanese government is working on signing a new agreement with Ukraine, which provides for economic measures to support the country's recovery, according to NHK.

NATO is considering sending a permanent representative to Kyiv to strengthen long-term commitments to Ukraine amid the country's war against the Russian Federation, according to Foreign Policy.
"This is part of the consolation prize that we are all trying to create. This is another example of what we are doing instead of what Ukraine really wants from us," said one NATO official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Three more children have been returned from the temporarily occupied Kherson region to the Ukraine-controlled territory, including an 8-year-old boy, said the head of the Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Prokudin.

1080 cultural heritage objects in Ukraine were damaged due to Russian aggression.
These include 121 of national significance, 879 of local significance, and 80 newly discovered.

More than 8,000 Ukrainians still struggle in Russian captivity. Over 2,000 of them are civilians captured in the occupied territories. https://t.me/United24media/22520

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

President Biden apologizes https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-07-24-intl/h_0fea414aad194ef82994f7eea92a9a1f to President Zelensky for the extended delay in supplying military assistance to Ukraine, per CNN

🤡Putin said that there are no plans to mobilize in Russia, because the occupiers allegedly signed a contract with more than 300,000 "volunteers" last year, and with 160,000 in 2024.

Russian state TV shows the destroyed Ukrainian town of Vovchansk and threatens that German cities will look the same
And Putin says that Russia has no plans to attack NATO countries. Who to believe? https://t.me/liveukraine_media/21659

For several months now, European satellite companies have been suffering from Russian interference attempts, with children's TV channels repeatedly broadcasting propaganda in Russian.
For example, the children's entertainment channel BabyTV, owned by the Walt Disney Company, was interrupted twice (in March and April) and Russian-language videos about the war appeared.
Bloomberg writes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-07/disney-children-s-channel-broadcasts-interrupted-by-russia-war-videos?srnd=homepage-europe** that since mid-March, at least three satellites of the French operator Eutelsat have been seriously damaged, with failures lasting two months. Sweden, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg also complained about the interference.
The publication emphasizes that against the backdrop of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is trying to disrupt various European communications systems, testing the readiness of the EU and NATO. For example, airlines flying over the Baltic Sea are increasingly experiencing GPS jamming, which is also blamed on Russia.

Main characteristics of Mirage 2000-5F fighters to be delivered by France to Ukraine

This is Sashko, 11 years old, from Kharkiv oblast, a victim of Russia

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin articulated a theory of victory in Ukraine on June 7 that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
• Putin's theory of victory rests on Russia's ability to outlast and overcome pledged Western security assistance to Ukraine and Ukrainian efforts to mobilize more of its economy and population for the war effort, indicating that Putin likely assesses that Russian forces will be able to leverage their advantages in manpower and materiel to overwhelm on Ukrainian forces.
• Putin's theory of victory hinges on a critical assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine to Russian victory, either on its own accord or in response to Russian efforts to persuade the West to do so, and it is far from clear that the West will do so.
• Putin indirectly indicated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with Western-provided weapons do not cross a supposed Russian "red line" that would result in Russian nuclear escalation.
• Putin heavily focused on proposals to solve Russia's labor shortage issues during his speech at SPIEF on June 7.
• Putin attempted to frame Russia's economic issues in a positive light, likely to prepare Russian citizens to make more personal sacrifices as Russia sustains a protracted war in Ukraine at the expense of Russian citizens’ standards of living.
• Putin continued efforts to portray Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an illegitimate president and identified the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament) as a legitimate actor with which the Kremlin can negotiate instead of Zelensky. Putin’s recent statements are the latest in a series designed to obfuscate the legality of Zelensky's extended term by misrepresenting the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian laws.
• Putin attempted to introduce his children and the children of other senior Russian officials to the public sphere at SPIEF, likely to set conditions for them to eventually assume high-profile and powerful roles in the Russian government. [interesting]
• US National Security Council Senior Director for Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation Pranay Vaddi stated that the US has prepared a new nuclear weapons policy specifically to deter Russia, the People's Republic of China (PRC), North Korea, and Iran.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a $225 million security assistance package for Ukraine on June 7.
• French President Emmanuel Macron announced on June 6 that France will provide Ukraine with an unspecified number of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets and equip and train a brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers.
• The Russian Supreme Court declared an organization that does not exist as "extremist" on June 7, consistent with previous ISW assessments that Russia seeks to expand the legal definition of "extremism" to increasingly prosecute domestic anti-war sentiment.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to destabilize the Balkans and dismantle the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended the 1992-1995 Bosnian War, likely as part of a larger strategic effort that seeks to divide and distract Europe.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, near Chasiv Yar, and northwest of Avdiivka.

• Putin indirectly indicated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with Western-provided weapons do not cross a supposed Russian "red line" that would result in Russian nuclear escalation.

Shocker……

Quite.

Macron’s response on Russian propaganda etc. yesterday was so good that I tracked it down in French.

@ivanastradner

Today, Serbia and Republika Srpska adopted the Serbian World (equivalent to the concept of Russia’s World).

Dodik met with Putin this week.

It’s an old KGB/UDBA game that was played right before the wars in the 90’s to blackmail the West. Game plan: Dodik can threaten with secession and 🇷🇸 government can position itself as a mediator. Russia will blackmail the West - if Europe doesn’t want this chaos to spiral further, they will have to negotiate with the Kremlin. Expect more escalations in a few months.

Meanwhile, this is all well supported from Moscow and I just saw Lavrov’s speech that Russia plans to protect Serbia - it is telling.

The Balkans is VERY complex and many analysts in the West don’t understand the region- identify politics, religion, ideology, culture etc . Meanwhile, Moscow perfectly understands how to add fuel to the fire and let’s see what they are preparing next in the region. It doesn’t have to be a war like in Ukraine but expect more escalations right below the threshold of war.

When charlatans in the West tell me that leaders in the Balkans don’t want to risk a war with NATO- let me remind you that last year, more than 90 NATO peacekeeping soldiers were injured in the clashes with Serb protesters in northern Kosovo, according to NATO. What did the West do? Nothing. That’s exactly what Putin wanted to see. It was a round one and you’ll see around 2. Also pay attention to North Macedonia.

When you see 🇷🇺 telegram channels such as Rybar that opened “media schools” in Serbia and Republika Srpska, it’s telling as they are setting informational conductions. The number of new telegram channels is growing.

The world is busy with different fronts and the Balkans is European vulnerability.

There's some footage doing the rounds: Zelenskyy's encounter with a WWII hero from America (bona fide hero, about half the people in his particular field didn't survive), in which the old guy tried to kiss Zelenskyy's hand and Zelenskyy wouldn't let him and ended up bending down to his wheelchair and hugging him instead, while they called each other heroes. I find it utterly credible, and I am not sure there is another leader in the world I could say that about just at the moment. And no, I don't for one solitary instant think it was rehearsed or rigged in some way.

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/zelenskyy-shares-emotional-moment-with-u-s-veteran-at-d-day-anniversary-212424261744

Really good IMHO 45 min video just come out, link at bottom of page, from Ward Carroll (ex-USN F-14s) and Justin Bronk (RUSI analyst) on matters various, including from 14 minutes onwards in some detail the whole issue of the F-16 deliveries and why the training has taken long.

For those that just want the CliffNotes version of what Bronk says:

It’s very very hard to take someone highly experienced on a Russian aircraft type and who has had a career working to Russian tactics and procedures and reprogrammed them to work the NATO way…it may actually be easier to start fresh with a newbie. Having got someone up to speed on operating a single aircraft you then need to give them the training/experience to be able to operate as a multi-element lead (formation leader).

As an example in many NATO airforces you’d probably have been operational on a type on a squadron maybe two or three years before having the experience needed to lead a four ship in a tactical situation…if the Ukrainian F-16s are going to be successful that experience and training is somehow going to have to be attained before the first aircraft are delivered.

@notimagain thanks for sharing the link. Justin Bronk sounds knowledgeable. I ended up watching the whole video. It seems like the pilots have to rewire their brains in order to move from Soviet planes to Nato ones (sorry, my terminology is poor).

If you have to train a Ukraine pilot from scratch to reach a high level of proficiency to be in a dogfight in that hostile environment, how long will that take?

Interesting that Bronk says if Ukraine can hold out past the summer and into 2025, the battlefield will start the turn against Russia because European and US production would have had time to catch up whilst Russia will start to deplete since they will no longer be able to pull stuff out from behind the couch.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-8-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Russian military command is reportedly transferring an unspecified number of forces to the Ukrainian-Russian border area near Kharkiv Oblast, but it is unclear if the Russian military command plans to immediately commit these redeployed forces to combat or use them to reinforce the Northern Grouping of Forces to bring it closer to its reported planned end strength.
• Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted on June 8 that a fraction of the reported 30,000 personnel that Russia generates each month arrives at the front as combat force replacements and reinforcements and that Russian force generation efforts have allowed Russian forces to establish only limited operational and strategic reserves.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian military airfield in the North Ossetia-Alania Republic on the night of June 7 to 8.
• Russian strikes have caused widespread damage to Ukraine's energy grid, and Ukraine will continue to face serious constraints on power generation capacity.
• US President Joe Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on June 7.
• Longtime Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina is reportedly a balancing force among Russian President Vladimir Putin's economic advisors despite pressure for Russian officials to unequivocally support the long-term war effort in Ukraine. [Respect that Nabiullina has not completely gone over to the dark side]
• Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Russian opposition outlets reported that unspecified actors attempted to assassinate the former Russian occupation mayor of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, Hennadiy Matsehora in Stary Oskol, Belgorod Oblast on June 7.
• Russian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City, southeast of Kupyansk, within easternmost Chasiv Yar, northwest of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City.
• Russian actors are using video appeals from Russian servicemen to refute reports of high Russian losses in northern Kharkiv Oblast.