Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

I have a feeling that I may be going to need that page for donations again fairly soon. Can someone put it here so I don't have to search through the whole thread, because the file I had it in got erased through my careless stupidity....

I think the donation link might have been United24. It's certainly where I make mine.

https://u24.gov.ua

Thanks! Yes, that was the one I was thinking of.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Biden Administration’s limited policy change permitting Ukraine to use US-provided weapons to strike some Russian military targets in a small area within Russian territory has reduced the size of Russia’s ground sanctuary by only 16 percent at maximum. US policy still preserves at least 84 percent of Russia's ground sanctuary – territory within range of Ukrainian ATACMS.
• Likely Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Su-57 fighter aircraft at the Akhtubinsk Airfield in Astrakhan Oblast between June 7 and 8.
• Ukrainian forces may have struck a Russian large landing ship or patrol boat in Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai on the night of June 8 to 9.
• The Kremlin's concerted effort to remove and arrest senior Russian defense officials may be extending to civilian regional administration officials.
• The pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc held its second congress in Moscow on June 9 following a series of meetings between pro-Kremlin Moldovan opposition politicians and Russian officials from June 6 to 9.
• Former pro-Russian Moldovan president and current head of the Moldovan Socialist Party Igor Dodon gave interviews to Russian state news agencies TASS and RIA Novosti on June 9 in which he promoted several known Kremlin narratives targeting the current Moldovan government – many of which Moldovan opposition politicians also promoted at the Victory bloc congress.
• The Kremlin will likely try to exploit its ties to Dodon as part of its wider efforts to destabilize Moldovan democracy and influence the Moldovan government.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
• Russian officials continue efforts to coerce migrants into military service.

Can you say what this link is for. I don't like clicking on unknowns

It's video of an explosion in Belgorod - an arms dump going up, it seems.

Tendar has ben posting about the Ukraine war for a long time.

Is it liberal democracy they are disillusioned with? I don't think anyone wants to be without a vote.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Biden, Macron reach agreement https://kyivindependent.com/biden-macron-reach-agreement-on-using-profits-from-frozen-russian-assets-for-ukraine/ on using profits from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine. Biden didn't provide any further details.

⚡️Macron dissolves French parliament, calls election https://kyivindependent.com/macron-dissolves-french-parliament-calls-election/ after exit polls project far-right gains in EU election.
National Rally is projected to have won around 32% of the vote, double that of Macron's centrist alliance at 15%. Exit polls suggest the Socialists came third, with 14% of the vote.

⚡️Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo announces https://kyivindependent.com/belgian-prime-minister-alexander-de-croo-announces-resignation/ plans to resign after the defeat of his party, the liberal Open VLD, in the country's federal elections held June 9.

⚡️Orban's party wins Hungary's European Parliament elections, but opposition makes gains.
https://kyivindependent.com/orbans-party-wins-hungarys-european-parliament-elections-but-opposition-makes-gains/
The results represent a 10% drop in support for the nationalist Fidesz party. Opposition leader Peter Magyar called the vote "the beginning of the end" for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's grip on power.

⚡️Ukraine hit Russian S-400, S-300 systems https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hit-russian-s-400-s-300-systems-in-occupied-crimea-overnight-general-staff-says/ in occupied Crimea overnight, General Staff says.

⚡️Putin will soon visit https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-putin-will-soon-visit-north-korea/ North Korea, Russia's ambassador says.

⚡️ Some F-16s donated to Ukraine will be stored abroad https://kyivindependent.com/some-f-16s-donated-to-ukraine-will-be-stored-abroad-top-officer-says/ as reserves, top officer says.
A number of F-16 fighter jets donated by Western allies to Ukraine will be stationed at air bases abroad, Serhii Holubtsov, a top officer at the Air Force Command, said in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's (RFE/RL) published on June 9. "And this will be our reserve, if necessary, to replace faulty aircraft during routine maintenance," Holubtsov said. @notimagain

⚡️ Russia uses submarines to patrol Black Sea https://kyivindependent.com/russia-uses-submarines-to-patrol-black-sea-after-ships-losses-military-says/ after naval losses, military says.

⚡️ Polish arms plant explosion https://kyivindependent.com/polish-arms-factory-explosion-kills-employee-injures-another/ starts fire, leaves 1 employee dead. An explosion in the Mesko arms factory in the southeastern Polish city of Skarzysko-Kamienna on June 10 started a fire and killed a 59-year-old worker, RMF 24 reported. [sabotage or accident?]

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine to start testing https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-to-start-testing-domestically-produced-guided-aerial-bombs/ domestically produced guided aerial bombs soon.

⚡️ Ukraine to directly sign contracts https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-directly-sign-contracts-with-global-arms-producers/ with global arms producers.
Ukraine's Defense Ministry will directly conclude contracts with global arms manufacturers, giving it access to new models of weapons, the ministry announced on June 10.

⚡️Yusov: Ukrainian operation may have hit 2 https://kyivindependent.com/yusov-ukrainian-operation-may-have-hit-2-su-57s-in-russia/ in Russia.

⚡️Ukraine refutes Kadyrov's claims https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-authorities-refute-kadyrovs-claims-about-captured-sumy-oblast-border-village/ about captured Sumy Oblast border village.

Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a note of protest to Yerevan after an Armenian delegation visited Bucha earlier in June, Russian state-controlled news agency Russian state-run media outlet TASS reported on June 9. https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-issues-protest-note-to-yerevan-after-armenian-delegation-visits-bucha/

⚡️ Brothers of Medvedchuk, ex-MP Kozak https://kyivindependent.com/serhii-medvedchuk-bohdan-kozak-tax-evasion/ charged with tax evasion of $1.8 million.

⚡️ 32 Ukrainians reportedly detained https://kyivindependent.com/32-ukrainians-reportedly-detained-in-hungary-after-illegal-border-crossing/ in Hungary after illegal border crossing.

⚡️Infrastructure Development head Nayyem resigns https://kyivindependent.com/infrastructure-development-head-nayyem-resigns-after-reportedly-being-blocked-from-attending-german-reconstruction-conference/ after being blocked from attending German reconstruction conference.

⚡️ Survey: Half of Ukrainians say criticism of authorities needed https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-criticism-of-government/ but shouldn't destabilize country.
Around 50% of Ukrainians think it is important to criticize the government's actions even during the war, but the criticism should be constructive and not destabilize the situation, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published on June 10. Around 31% of the respondents said that the criticism must be harsh and uncompromising "as the only way to put pressure on the authorities" to correct their mistakes. Some 13% think that criticism should not be allowed to prevent destabilization of the situation.

⚡️Belarus to participate in Russia's nuclear drills https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-to-participate-in-russias-nuclear-drills/

⚡️Explosions reported in occupied Crimea.

⚡️Two injured https://kyivindependent.com/two-injured-in-russian-june-8-drone-attack-on-ambulance-in-kherson-oblast/ in Russia's June 8 drone attack on ambulance in Kherson Oblast.
⚡️Russia attacks 6 communities in Sumy Oblast.
⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 1, injure 4 over past day.
⚡️ Russian attacks on Kharkiv, Kherson oblasts kill 1, injure 3, including 102-year-old woman.

⚡️NGO Save Ukraine rescues https://kyivindependent.com/ngo-save-ukraine-rescues-17-year-old-girl-from-russia/ 17-year-old girl from Russia.

Day after day after day, the Russian personnel losses are over 1000.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUN 10, 2024
■ Close to 1.2k casualties; engagements below 7-day average
■ Equipment below average; new record for 7-day artillery losses & big special equipment losses
■ Increased 🇷🇺 strikes & shelling; unfavorable strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Vladimir Putin has no intention of stopping at Ukraine, and his victory there would mean war against NATO, according to former head of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) David Petraeus.

By the end of the year, only 20 F-16 fighter pilots will have been trained for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to Politico. The publication highlights that it will take another year and a half to fully supply pilots for the over 80 F-16 aircraft that Ukraine is set to receive.
The US Air Force has stated that it can only train up to 12 pilots for the 2023-2024 period. Meanwhile, Denmark plans to train eight pilots by the end of the year, and Romania is still in the process of preparing to start its training program.

Switzerland has recorded an increase in cyber attacks and disinformation ahead of the June 15-16 Summit of Peace on Ukraine.
Foreign Minister Ignatius Cassis noted there was a clear "interest" in the breakdown of the talks but avoided specifying who was behind the attacks when asked if Russia was involved.

Türkiye will be represented at the upcoming Summit on Peace for Ukraine in Switzerland by the country's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, —TRT Haber TV channel

The arrival of F-16s will increase the effectiveness of all aviation munitions currently used in Ukraine.
Chief of Aviation of the Ukrainian Air Force Command Serhii Holubtsov stated that all provided aircraft have been modernized to use high-precision weapons. Holubtsov highlighted that the pilots currently undergoing training abroad are impressed by the stability and accuracy of the sights.
"They work flawlessly, identifying targets from drones to airplanes".

Switzerland is allocating 58.7 million francs (over 65 million dollars) for the development of digital Ukraine during 2024-2028, according to the Ministry of Digital Transformation.

President Zelenskyy chaired the Meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, where the following updates were provided:
▫️The defense forces have asserted control over the situation in the Sumy region. Reports from Russian sources claiming the capture of Ryzhivka village are deemed as propaganda misinformation, as there are no enemy troops present in the area.
▫️Ukrainian forces are currently engaged in a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, where the enemy is undergoing regrouping. The situation remains challenging in the Donetsk region, while there have been no significant changes observed in the southern direction.

The head of the Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands, Kajsa Ollongren, arrived on an unannounced visit to Kyiv.

In the new gameplay trailer for "S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chernobyl," the developers used music by Mykola Mozgovyi.
GSC Game World has refused to provide Russian localization for the game. In response, hackers threatened to leak game materials.

As a result of the attack on Kharkiv, six people were injured.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Sky News writes https://news.sky.com/story/ukrainian-warplane-fires-weapon-at-target-inside-russia-for-first-time-13150251 that Ukrainian combat aircraft have struck the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation for the first time.
The TV channel cited a Ukrainian military source as saying that the attack hit a command center near Belgorod. The consequences of the attack are being investigated. It is not known what exactly the aircraft used.

🇪🇺 According to the preliminary results of the elections, more far-right and conservative parties are entering the European Parliament.
🇩🇪 In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party came in third place after the pro-Russian Alternative for Germany. The opposition Conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union is in first place.
🇫🇷 In France, President Macron dissolved the parliament (National Assembly). This was due to the triumphant victory of Marine Le Pen's right-wing radical National Rally party. Macron's party received half as many votes, which led the far-right to demand the dissolution of the National Assembly. The elections are scheduled for June 30 and July 7.
🇦🇹 In Austria, the pro-Russian Freedom Party is the likely winner.
🇸🇰 In Slovakia, the Slovak opposition party Progressive Slovakia took first place in the elections, and the party of Prime Minister Robert Fico came in second.
🇬🇷 In Greece, the New Democracy movement of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis retained the lead.
🇪🇸 The opposition Popular Party wins in Spain.
The pro-Ukrainian European People's Party (EPP), which is the largest group in the European Parliament, is in the lead. It may win 180 out of 720 seats in the new parliament.

⚡️Last night, the Ukrainian Defense Forces targeted and successfully struck Russian anti-aircraft missile systems in Crimea
The strikes hit one S-400 division near Dzhankoy and two S-300 divisions near Chornomorske and Yevpatoria. None of the missiles launched by the Ukrainians were intercepted by Russian air defenses.
As a result, the radars of the S-300 and S-400 systems in the targeted areas ceased functioning. Additionally, there were reports of ammunition detonations in these locations.

Raw, interesting, moving article in the Guardian; an interview with a Ukrainian writer who is now a soldier. He has a book out about his experience of the war.

Ukrainian author turned soldier Oleksandr Mykhed: ‘This is not Putin’s war. This is a war waged by the whole Russian nation’ | Journalism books | The Guardian

It is very very worrying. Though, happily, in the EU elections yesterday, the Left did surprisingly well in Finland, and the far right party lost a lot of support. Just wish it could have been like that elsewhere.

Maybe the Finns are more aware than people in some places just how dangerous it is for the far right to play Putin's game for him.

I think it's more because the current right wing government here is doing so many hugely unpopular things and the far right party in particular has shown their true colours so the Finns, including the ones who voted for them, have realised how bad they are.

Last night, the Ukrainian Defense Forces targeted and successfully struck Russian anti-aircraft missile systems in Crimea
The strikes hit one S-400 division near Dzhankoy and two S-300 divisions near Chornomorske and Yevpatoria. None of the missiles launched by the Ukrainians were intercepted by Russian air defenses.
As a result, the radars of the S-300 and S-400 systems in the targeted areas ceased functioning. Additionally, there were reports of ammunition detonations in these locations.

I'd be interested in @notimagain's opinion on this, but my thinking is that Ukraine is relentlessly targeting Russian air defense assets to create a more permissive environment for the F-16s when they go into front line service later this year.

This is being done with ATACMS, and they're using them at a tempo that tells me they have a lot of them in the locker or many more on the way. Earlier on this thread, when I explained why it's so hard for the Russians to intercept them as they descend straight down on them from an altitude of eight or nine miles, I attributed the difficulty to the great speed of both the ATACMS and the interceptor. That's correct, but not the only factor. When a missile comes directly at you (as opposed to moving obliquely across your field of view), its radar cross-section is reduced to the diameter of the missile, which is just two feet (610mm). The Russian air defense radars will struggle to get a lock on such a small target moving at Mach 3.

They are being hit so hard that Russian air defense troops have been told to evacuate their dependents to "old Russian" territory. By the way, the headline is misleading. The troops are not being told to evacuate, just their families.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-air-defense-troops-ordered-to-evacuate-1718024540.html

@MissConductUS apart from targeting Russian air defence, is there anything Ukraine can do to combat Russian electronic warfare which jams GPS and reduces the effectivenes of HIMAR and other missiles?

Yes, they can and do target Russian electronic warfare assets whenever possible. In fact there is an American missile designed to do exactly this, the AGM-88 HARM.

Ukraine is currently firing them in a degraded mode from their Soviet era jets. They'll be much more effective when fired from F-16s or other NATO aircraft that they are fully compatible with/

I've also seen reports of Russian EW assets being eliminated by ATACMS. If they can be located, they can be attacked.

@MissConductUS thanks, that is good to know. It will take a while more but will a great boost for Ukraine once those F-16s are in the air.

Just spotted this from Ducks' United24 roundup, which supports what you said about F-16 and AGM-88 HARM:

"The arrival of F-16s will increase the effectiveness of all aviation munitions currently used in Ukraine.

Chief of Aviation of the Ukrainian Air Force Command Serhii Holubtsov stated that all provided aircraft have been modernized to use high-precision weapons. Holubtsov highlighted that the pilots currently undergoing training abroad are impressed by the stability and accuracy of the sights.

"They work flawlessly, identifying targets from drones to airplanes"."

@MissConductUS

I'd be interested in @notimagain's opinion on this, but my thinking is that Ukraine is relentlessly targeting Russian air defense assets to create a more permissive environment for the F-16s when they go into front line service later this year.

I think that’s exactly what’s going on, aka “shaping the battlefield”.

Have to add that regardless of how well the Ukrainians can manage the SAM threat to the F-16’s it will all be for almost nought if they don’t manage to have a robust plan in place to protect/defend the aircraft whilst on the ground.

They/the supporting infrastructure will probably become the number one priority for Russian drones and long range missiles once the aircraft arrive in theatre.

They're clearly aware it a problem- some will be kept in other countries, the ones used for parts and maintenance.

The number of pilots trained is dispiriting though, only 20

They're clearly aware it a problem- some will be kept in other countries, the ones used for parts and maintenance.

Yep but that is far from a complete solution- no good having spares for parts if your combat ready aircraft have ended up with holes in them..the force protection put in place will have to be really good.

As an aside I’m really not sure announcing the remote parking up of spares was a clever move TBH, unless it’s disinformation.

The number of pilots trained is dispiriting though, only 20

That gives you a fresh out of the box squadron…probably the smallest size of unit that’s able to operate together a credible package with a mix of weapons (e.g. some to suppress the defences,, some to deliver ordnance on the main target).

I’m afraid it’s back to some of the expectations being raised have been unrealistic, in part because so much BS started doing the rounds on about day one of this war, from for example at least one or two Hollywood lovies - “just send the jets, how hard can it be?” Err, well as anyone who actually has been involved in the job will tell you quite hard actually.

Some of the tardiness is down to the politicians but getting a brand new squadron on a brand new type established and actually able to do the multiple roles required straight out of the box, and really importantly have a chance of actually surviving day one is a really tough ask from a training POV and takes time.

Oh, yet another