Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

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Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

And it's already been answered.

Where is the answer? I haven't been rude to anyone, I have joined an open public discussion thread. It was you who told me to f... off just because I chose to look at wider picture.

So please, enlighten me, which bit of what I have said is a lie?

@Edemummy you have lied about Zelensky bringing a Nazi to an event. You have lied about Sunak and Trudeau telling Zelensky to “stop lying”. You have lied about bringing balance to the thread, which isn’t at all what you are doing. You have lied about providing “evidence”. How’s that for starters?

Why aren't you saying that to Russia? After all, they invaded Ukraine, you know. Not the other way around.

If you were genuinely asking, you'd have a very different way of putting it.

You do however know now - which actually was very easily sought out on the internet - that the Nazi thing in Canada was a total mistake. They happen you know.

You'd also know that the falling debris in Poland was not Ukraine attacking Poland, as you try to misconstrue.

For the record, Ukraine does not speak of quite a few matters. When it does speak, it seems to be fairly honest BUT keeping schtum on some matters means an inaccurate picture. But as far as we are aware, it tries to keep to the truth when it does speak.

Russia on the other hand lies and lies and lies and the absolute atrocities carried out in the occupied territories are well recorded - not least by some of our Ukrainian guests, at times.

Ukraine's conduct in some areas should be questioned, needs to be questioned. But by people of goodwill not Kremlin propagandists, whose points you are re-writing here yet again.

I'm ignoring that person.

I was going to do a timeline of Russia's aggression towards Ukraine (including Eastern Ukraine, which like all areas of Ukraine had voted for independence from Russia/the Soviet Union in 1991) from 2014, for the sake of lurkers but decided that it wasn't worth it.

Our Ukrainian contributors like @MMBaranova and @Mb76 have gone over it often enough . My Russian speaking Ukrainian SIL can no longer travel to Russia as she has been supporting Ukrainian refugees (from the Russian aggression ) and unfortunately now has a strained relationship with her parents (who both live in Russia)

We do seem to be experiencing DARVO here: Deny - Attack - Reverse Victim and Offender . Ie denies Ukraine has even been attacked and then anyway it's somehow Ukraine's fault that Russia was made to attack it.

Russia's a past master of DARVO.

It's an interesting point - as a parent, do I want to risk WW3?

/rant incoming.

The answer is well no, of course I don't.

But I also know that I do not want my children to grow up afraid to speak, curbing their words except in the privacy of their own home and sometimes not even then. My partner said that when people walked the streets of his East German city, every single one wore a grey overcoat of silence. When they came home, they could take the metaphorical overcoat off at the door. Usually. Unless you couldn't trust your family.

Self-censorship and grey self-suppression serves the purpose of Russia and North Korea and all authoritarian regimes.

People fought for decades against it, and quite a lot died, sometimes in horrible prisons. Because it meant that much to them. Now, they don't have to fear their neighbours. They can quarrel over the noisy music or the fences without being afraid it'll tip the neighbours into reporting them for an injudicious comment, and then their children have to leave a good school and will never have a good job.

People chose to stand up under guns pointed at them and take the risk of a blood bath. Parents chose to run the risk of leaving their children orphans, farmed out to family or to become orphans of the state. Because not living in fear and repression meant that much to them. The Czech poets, the Polish Solidarity, at that point the brave Hungarians who strove for freedom made their own choices, but they also chose to act when they had children knowing what the result might be.

So I do choose to run the risk of WW3 if it has to be, driven by dreadful people like Putin and Kim Jong Un and the Talinban in Afghanistan. Women there once walked the streets freeling with their hair uncovered, went to university. Now they are imprisoned and children left entirely uneducated. I really, really don't want war to spread. But if you have two opposing authoritarian tyrants, that risk exists anyway. Life, and society, isn't safe. Cultures do collapse, and awfully, now there are nukes we might collapse a great deal of the world with it.

I have a bleak view - I don't think our culture, our societies will survive forever. Once the nuclear and biological weopons of mass destruction were developed, we started walking along a narrow line and not every leader is sensible or wise. One day two such leaders will clash, or a simple accident such as an earthquake rocking a bio weopon lab, or simple lack of good maintenance will allow something to escape.

But while we're around, I choose to support my sons in fighting for a world where reasonable freedom of expression exists. I do not want to live in a society where my ten year old can be removed from me and I will be sent to prison because he drew an anti-invasion poster. It's something worth fighting for, the freedom to say that you disagree with the government but my God we are under attack by Russia and sometimes others. And sadly, that does mean, if you're dealing with a hubristic tyrant like Putin, you do have to face that it all goes wrong. But I believe we have to risk that. Ours is an infinitely better life than the short lived drunkards in Archangelsk or the imprisoned women of Afghanistan or the raped women and children of Mariupol.

Yes, I will run that risk. If I have to. Unfortunately, we do.

👏👏👏

Well said @DucklingSwimmingInstructress

My parents emigrated from SA when I was not much more than a toddler (and db was still a toddler ) as they didn't want to bring us up in a society that they fundamentally disagreed with (apartheid) - as otherwise we'd be isolated from all our contemporaries.

I remember reading & studying 1984 as a teenager and being really affected by it. I could see the risks (living in the UK as a teenager in the 70s and a young adult in the 80s). Ironically, I though Thatcher was as demonstrating some of its themes - but the current world dynamic is even closer

I've lived through the fear of an imminent nuclear war - which included a plan to drive towards Leuchars in the event of a 3 minutes warning (when I lived in St Andrews) - and to tell the truth, I don't think the Doomsday Clock is quite as close as it was back then (mid 80s). I have to admit I've slightly come round to the view that there is indeed a value to a nuclear deterrent still not 100% sure about it

I actually studied Russian at Uni (although changed course after 2 years of it, despite being accepted onto the Honours course, to do joints Economics and French instead) so it's not that I'm anti-Russia.

Completely agree.

Anyone who's seen Threads has an idea of the utter horror of a nuclear war.

I was once taken to a small military Cold War survival bunker by someone who, ahem, shouldn't have. Dear God that place was grim.

There have been one of two extremely close runs - more than one on the Defence Early Warning line and its secondary backups, one that's known about in Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

If it happens, cock-up seems just as likely as conspiracy. But still don't think we should kowtow to the murderous and repressive leaders.

https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2024/06/modeling-democracy-the-new-atlanticism/

More support a negotiated settlement to end the war, with a plurality of Americans and Western Europeans citing the loss of life and casualties as a primary reason.

People want Western governments to encourage a negotiated settlement primarily because of the human toll. However, there were some significant differences on each side of the Atlantic. Americans expressed more concern than Europeans that Ukraine might lose leverage over time. Given that the United States has been the primary sponsor of Ukraine’s war effort, the greater concern with Ukraine’s leverage might reflect a worry in the volatility or unpredictability of the outcome of this investment.

Meanwhile, Europeans are more concerned than Americans about the West’s industrial capacity for manufacturing munitions. This seems natural, given that Europe has made fewer investments in its defense industry, and any regional spillover of the war will create more urgency for it to produce munitions faster.
Expression of this concern with Europe’s defense capabilities is found in response to a question about the responsibility for European security. Asked to choose a sentence which came closest to their views about responsibility for European security, Europeans were less likely than Americans to want the United States to remain the primary guarantor of European security. Americans are twice as likely as Europeans to prefer this status quo.

Look, there is no need to attack, just because I challenge your point of view? You here proclaim a right to a free speech and yet I am insulted and called names and whatever else when I speak what I really feel and think (in a respectful way and only sighting the facts!)
The Ukraine wanted to join EU, but not all of it, they had regions that didn't. They got bombed, BY the Ukrainian army, you can't deny it now, it's all confirmed by international organisations. Now is this a democracy?
Or is "do what you like as long as it's against Russia" line from UK/EU/US etc? Because if it is it's not fair and the ww3 will be a massive mistake and I don't stand for it for a second.
Now I've said everything I wanted, gave you all the links, you can call me whatever you like, peace out.
I am out of this echo chamber.

@Edemummy ok. Don't let the door slam you on the way out.

DARVO.

https://kyivindependent.com/politico-stalled-us-f-16-training-program-frustrates-ukraine/

Politico: Stalled US F-16 training program frustrates Ukraine
by Abbey Fenbert
June 6, 2024 4:00 AM
3 min read

Kyiv wants the United States to train more Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, but the U.S. says there are limited spots and too many customers from other nations, Politico reported on June 5, citing Ukrainian and U.S. officials.

Several countries, including the U.S., have pledged to assist Ukrainian aviators with the necessary training under the F-16 coalition framework. The first Ukrainian pilots began their training at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona, last October.

Ukraine says it has 30 pilots prepared to start the training program in Tucson, but U.S. President Joe Biden maintains that the program only has space for 12 students at a time, three officials told Politico.

The same availability issues reportedly also affect training facilities in Denmark and Romania.

Over the past several weeks, Kyiv has officially requested that the U.S. train the additional pilots at the Tucson facility. The U.S. has not granted the request, citing committments to other nations in line for F-16 training at the base.

"We understand they don't want to break those contracts, but they could move their American pilots to a different base for training," Ukrainian lawmaker Sasha Ustinova told Politico.

Maj. Erin Hannigan, a spokesperson for the Arizona National Guard, confirmed the limitations in training slots to Politico and said there were compounding reasons for the lack of slots.

"On top of the Ukrainian students, there are multiple other countries that have reserved training throughout the year," Hannigan said.

"The number of foreign student pilots and where they come from is not determined by our schoolhouse, there are many other factors that play a part in the numbers such as funding, country requests, graduation of students from English learning, and allotment."

A total of 20 Ukrainian pilots are anticipate to complete F-16 training by the end of 2024. That number is only half of the 40 aviators needed to operate a full squadron of 20 F-16 jets.

Eight new pilots will begin training at the facility in Romania, while another eight are set to undergo training at the Tucson base. For the rest of the year, across all training sites, only four spots will be available for Ukrainian pilots, one official told Politico.

Ukraine will not have a full squadron of pilots before the end of 2025, a former U.S. Defense Dapartment official told Politico.

@Veldemia I can read English. No need to highlight, hth. Also, not sure why you quoted my post on the recently departed Edemummy. You ok?

Distorted 'facts' written in a way that gives completely the wrong impression. Some of which have a grain of truth, others of which are entirely twisted so far that your ankle bone's up behind the neck and the toes under your chin.

This thread has been targeted many, many, many times by shills over the months. It's even hit the news, actually.

The highlights are for the pertinent points, though. For emphasis. Like how Biden apparently thinks foreign nations not Ukraine are somehow more important right now for training. Which is, frankly, disgusting.

The quoting your post was an accident, however.

With (a very great deal of ) respect, .... not every new poster is a shill. Edemummy's consistently coming out with Kremlin lines and distortions, but let's give Veldemia a chance.

The effect of Russian propaganda, as RedToothBrush said - you end up not knowing who to believe and mistrusting everyone.

I think we're up to about 40 or 50 shills / bad faith actors that Mumsnet have banned over the last two years, admittedly!

This mistrust is well founded but bloody corrosive.

The Lithuanian Prime Minister warned before the Ukrainian invasion about Russia's aspiration to create the Soviet Union 2.0 (actually since then, Putin's own writings have demonstrated that it is his personal goal to re-create his version of the Russian Empire)

As a Baltic state, I think they have an even better perception than us - and fear - of Russia's threat. And are completely justified in drawing this to the West's attention.

Iirc, Latvia has said similar.

One of them made the point that appeasing Russia is counter-productive: all it does is go away, re-group, learn and then try again

Edemummys style is slightly different. Normally they try to be subtle about their support of the Russian lies and disinformation before dropping the facade- some have been better than others. They have just jumped in full on spouting bollocks.

The F-16 training timescale shouldn’t be a surprise, there simply isn’t the training capacity in the system that there used to be.

What I think don’t think has helped expectation management was the accounts that did the rounds in the media maybe eighteen plus back from mystery Ukrainian pilots with kinky tactical call signs who supposedly were already in the States and almost ready to deploy back home.

Looks like at least some of those were bogus (some of them looked bogus at the time)