Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

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Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The plant in Russia's Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan, which was attacked by Ukrainian drones in early April, is supposed to produce 6,000 Shaheds annually; as of the end of April, it was ahead of schedule and had already delivered 4,500 UAVs to Russia, the WSJ writes https://www.wsj.com/world/the-russian-drone-plant-that-could-shape-the-war-in-ukraine-7abd5616
The publication also writes that due to the lack of labor among Russian students, Russia has begun to attract young female students from Uganda to manufacture Albatross reconnaissance vehicles.
“They were offered skilled jobs with pay three times higher than in their home country, airfare, free accommodation, and a university diploma to participate in a work-study program,” the WSJ writes, citing a video of the event made by Alabuga and testimonies of people present at the event.

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine reports that Russia is intensifying mercenary recruitment in Africa for the war against Ukraine.
The Russians paid special attention to the following countries: Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, and Uganda.
“Mercenaries are lured by a starting cash payment of $2000 for signing a contract, promised a monthly allowance of $2200, health insurance, and a Russian passport for the soldier and his family members,” the statement said.

▪️ Earlier, UK allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with its weapons.

Trump told https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/28/trump-wealthy-donors-fundraising/ donors that he would bomb Moscow if Russia attacked Ukraine during his presidency.
He made the remarks at a private event, The Washington Post reports, citing sources. According to the publication, donors were surprised to hear Trump say that he would bomb Moscow and Beijing if Russia invaded Ukraine or China attacked Taiwan.

A full-length sculpture of Yevgeny Prigozhin was installed on his grave in St. Petersburg

🥴🤢at Prigozhin statue in St. Pete. They do love their statues in ru

It was giving me Despicable Me villain vibes 😂

lol!

😆a cross between Gru and a sontaran from Dr who

I guess the statue leaves no doubt it is Prigozhin buried there.

@notimagain appreciate the explanation re: F16s and Grippens.

I'm afraid that this sort of thing is why I voted to leave. The bloc has proven before that it's impotent when faced with a conflict on its doorstep.

I'm very much a Remainer and Brexit has made my life considerably more complicated but when it comes to that rather large aspect, I see why you voted Leave.

Um….my spider senses have started tingling a little bit..

Objectively, despite Orban/Hungary’s best efforts at times, the EU as a entity has definitely not been impotent and many member states have also been able to provide assistance, including weapons, outside of EU conduits, simply by virtue of them being sovereign nations..

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-tracker-europe-clearly-overtakes-us-with-total-commitments-now-twice-as-large/

Remember it suits some to undermine confidence in the EU.

@DdraigGoch's a good'un

That’s as maybe, saying the bloc is impotent is demonstrably nonsense and missleading.

The Eu is primarily a trading bloc, it has no army, it can only allocate funds, it was never set up to deal with military aggression.

The EU cannot chuck out a wayward country but if they did, how close would Hungary move to Russia and China? better in the tent? or out pissing back in?

Do you think the EU can act more coherently towards Russian aggression or do you think 27 separate countries would do better?

btw Hungary supported the EUs multi billion aid package to Ukraine.

..and the country that has harmed Ukraines defence more than any other, is the USA, the delay in aid for over 6 months, has really affected Ukraines ability to defend itself.... but its the EU's fault :(

I agree, hence why I'm a remain voter and will always think that Brexit was a monumental act of self-harm. However I know a great many leave voters who share Draig's view that its impotent, it doesn't make me think bot but it does make me think Russian/Vote Leave campaign's disinformation.

If we had a United States of Europe, as many foresaw the EU to be the precursor of, then maybe a lot of clout could be had in dealing with regional and global affairs. As it stands, you’ll be lucky if the EU as it is now remains in a couple decades from all the various headwinds on the horizon.

Brexit was a massively dumb move and I’m unsure how many really accept that yet or if they still think it’s sunlit uplands very soon.

With huge respect, sometimes people just think differently.

If you see them spewing the Russian line in several ways or being 'an enemy within' then it's different but it isn't always the case.

Talking about the enemy within, Hungary has blocked an enormous amount of aid, repeatedly - the latest is 7 BILLION from the proceeds of the frozen Russian assets.

In order to pass anything, Orbán's corrupt govt gets more and more out of the EU.

If you don't take action when someone has proven repeatedly that they are holding you back, absorbing your resources and working closely with open enemies .... you're a fool. Really at that point, any negative consequences are on you.

..and the country that has harmed Ukraines defence more than any other, is the USA

If you ignore the fact that without US aid, Ukraine would have lost the war in 2022.

The EU needs an ejection mechanism, and it certainly does have a suspension mechanism.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ US accuses https://kyivindependent.com/us-accuses-china-of-every-support-for-russias-war-in-ukraine-threatens-more-sanctions/ China of 'every support' for Russia's war in Ukraine, threatens more sanctions.
The U.S. has accused China of giving Russia "every support behind the scenes" towards its war in Ukraine, describing its actions as "destabilizing in the heart of Europe."

⚡️Syrskyi: Russia building up forces https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-russias-building-up-forces-near-kharkiv-region-but-theyre-not-enough-for-breakthrough/ near Kharkiv Oblast but not enough for breakthrough.

⚡️ Ukraine will receive two, not one ASC 890 radar reconnaissance and control aircraft in the latest aid package from Sweden, according to a statement by Tom Samuelsson, the spokesperson of the Swedish prime minister. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-kyiv-to-receive-swedens-surveillance-aircraft-in-largest-aid-package/ [@notimagain could you maybe summarize the implications of this please? :)]

⚡️Russia claims attack https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-attack-on-crimea-ferries/ on Crimea damages ferries near Kerch Bridge.

⚡️Ukrainian naval drones hit 2 Russian patrol boats in occupied Crimea, source says.
Naval drones operated by Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) hit two Russian patrol boats, likely the KS-701 Tunets (Tuna) model, in occupied Crimea overnight on May 30, a source in the agency told the Kyiv Independent. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-naval-drones-hit-2-russian-patrol-boats-in-occupied-crimea-source-says/

⚡️ Washington, Berlin signal potential policy change, paving way for permission for Ukraine to strike Russian territory. https://kyivindependent.com/washington-berlin-signal-potential-policy-change/

⚡️US Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo visits https://kyivindependent.com/us-deputy-treasury-secretary-adeyemo-visits-kyiv-will-hold-talks-on-strengthening-sanctions-against-russia/ Kyiv, will hold talks on strengthening sanctions against Russia.

⚡️Russia to increase https://kyivindependent.com/russia-to-increase-taxes-on-companies-and-wealthy-individuals-to-further-fund-war-against-ukraine/ taxes on companies and wealthy individuals to further fund war against Ukraine.
The tax changes, expected to be implemented in 2025, will raise approximately $29 billion yearly and impact around 2 million people.

⚡️Belgian, French police raid https://kyivindependent.com/police-raid-homes-office-of-european-parliament-employee/ European Parliament employee’s properties amid Russian propaganda investigation.
The Dutch public broadcaster NOS reported that the employee under investigation works for Dutch MEP Marcel de Graaff, a representative of the far-right party Forum for Democracy (FvD) in the European Parliament.

⚡️Blinken meets https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-meets-with-sandu-in-moldova/ with Sandu in Moldova, announces $50 million in support.

⚡️The U.S. Army on May 29 inaugurated the new Universal Artillery Projectile Lines facility in Mesquite, Texas, that will produce 155 mm artillery munitions and is part of Washington's effort to modernize its shell production. https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-new-factory-opens-in-us-to-produce-more-155-mm-shells-amid-kyivs-high-demand-to-defend-itself-from-war/ @MissConductUS

⚡️ The EU Council on May 30 adopted a regulation to significantly increase tariffs on certain agricultural products from Russia and Belarus.
The measures aim to limit EU imports of cereals, oilseeds and derived products, beet-pulp pellets, and dried peas from the two countries. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-council-approves-higher-tariffs-on-russian-belarusian-agricultural-goods/

⚡️ Governor fears https://kyivindependent.com/governor-fears-russia-may-renew-attack-in-one-more-direction-in-kharkiv-oblast/ Russia may renew attack in another direction in Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️Turkey to assist https://kyivindependent.com/turkey-to-assist-in-rebuilding-ukraines-power-grid/ in rebuilding Ukraine's power grid.
A meeting between Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko and Turkish Ambassador Mustafa Levent Bilgen was held to address the consequences of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy systems.

⚡️ NATO summit declaration to contain https://kyivindependent.com/nato-summit-declaration-to-contain-new-language-on-ukraines-membership-us-ambassador-says/ 'new language' on Ukraine's membership, US ambassador says. [less fussing about language and MORE FUCKING ACTION]

⚡️Russian authorities report https://kyivindependent.com/russian-authorities-report-large-scale-fire-in-moscow/ large-scale fire in Moscow.
A large-scale fire broke out at a warehouse in Moscow that spread to cover over 4,000 square meters of the building, Russian authorities reported on the morning of May 30.

⚡️ Trump suggested https://kyivindependent.com/trump-suggested-he-would-have-bombed-moscow-for-invading-ukraine-wp-reports/ he would have bombed Moscow for invading Ukraine, WP reports.

⚡️ Russian attacks on Nikopol kill 2 people, injure 2.
⚡️Russian attack on Kharkiv injures 7, damages critical infrastructure.
⚡️Russian attack on Kherson Oblast village kills man.

⚡️ 19 killed, 54 injured as rescue operations after Kharkiv hypermarket attack end. https://kyivindependent.com/rescue-operations-end-in-kharkiv-with-19-killed-54-injured-after-russian-hypermarket-attack/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN

• MAY 30, 2024

■ Combat engagements below 7-day average but casualties stay well above 1k ■ Special equipment, drones, vehicles & artillery losses above average ■ Increased 🇺🇦 strikes, improved strike ratio ■ Poternet: +350 🇷🇺 KIA added

Very true but you know full well thats not what i was talking about.

Since we are on Brexit, just wanted to add my own little camp (in case there was anyone else out there, although I mostly kept silent because nobody would listen on either side). I was a reluctant Remain voter, as in, I voted Remain in the end, because I concluded that the economic self harm to Britain wasn't worth it - although I sometimes tended to phase it as my head winning over my heart (although that wasn't quite true either). As in, it ultimately seemed to me that the cost-benefit analysis for Britain, particularly the economic downside (which I could never understand why people couldn't see), was not worth the other (mostly political) gains (which I also couldn't see why people couldn't see). Sigh, pretty lonely time politically.
I think being out has really helped Britain take the lead (and ultimately lead Europe, who have taken a long time to come anywhere close to catching up) on Ukraine, and that would have been much harder from within, so for Ukraine it as a positive. But economically for Britain, well ....

That's interesting Naem, I would have assumed that being in or out of Europe wouldn't have made much difference to Britain's considerable support for Ukraine.

“
⚡️ Ukraine will receive two, not one ASC 890 radar reconnaissance and control aircraft in the latest aid package from Sweden, according to a statement by Tom Samuelsson, the spokesperson of the Swedish prime minister….. [@notimagain could you maybe summarize the implications of this please? :)]”…

Airborne radar/command post, sort of mini A-50/E3 Sentry

Airborne radar tends to be able to see lower flying targets at longer ranges than ground based radar (subject to lots of caveats). Should give earlier warning of at least some drone and other low level strikes..Probably has all sorts of other nice electronic sensing gadgets on it as well for detection of targets and intelligence gathering.

Having your radar mobile helps it’s survivability and anybody associated with it..could be very handy if working in combination with aircraft such as the F-16, especially if they can swop info via datalink

It’s a thirty’ish year old design and the Swedes are retiring theirs, replacing them with a newer type to do the same job, but even so a very useful addition to the Ukranian Orbat as long as they can be kept serviceable.

I think being out has really helped Britain take the lead (and ultimately lead Europe, who have taken a long time to come anywhere close to catching up) on Ukraine, and that would have been much harder from within, so for Ukraine it as a positive

I would beg to differ, would have made zero difference.

Look at Poland? backed Ukraine very early on, as i said, EU isn't a military bloc & tbh, its in Europes interests that Ukraine is not over run.

Boris was why we supplied weapons v early, he wanted a cause, so for that, he needs to be praised (if for nothing else)

European countries are not really acting in unison on Ukraine, e.g Germany and France do/and say, quite different things.

I think it would have been harder for Britain to be heard - they didn't need to consult with France or Germany and try and drag them along first. Macron has been making a lot of positive statements of late, and it is clearly having some influence on Germany, but it took him a long time to come around, and it would have been much harder for Britain to simply support and sound the alarm bells, they would inevitably have been expected to consult and deal with the back and forth of all that first. Especially with a mandate to be "part of Europe" that a Remain vote would have given.

European countries acted on their own though, as well as as a bloc, so I don't think it would have made a difference.