Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

**
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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The UN will take part in the peace summit on Ukraine in Switzerland, — office of the organization's Secretary General Guterres

The mechanism for using frozen Russian assets as collateral to increase aid to Ukraine is still being discussed at the G7 level, with concrete steps expected at the group's summit in June.

EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarína Mathernová handed over three DOK-ING MV-10 demining systems to the State Emergency Service to equip its newly created pyrotechnic units.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius expressed opposition to German instructors training Ukrainian soldiers within Ukraine.

Olaf Scholz advocates allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons on Russian territory, — Politico.
The German government is cautiously backing away from its objections to allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike military targets in Russia, a source familiar with the government's position said.

The United States does not restrict Ukraine from using American air defense systems to shoot down Russian aircraft over Russian territory, — The Washington Post, citing US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken

Denmark allows Ukraine to use its F-16s against targets in Russia, — Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

The Russian government has classified data on fuel production amid drone attacks on refineries.
The Russian Ministry of Energy explained to RBC that, given the current geopolitical situation, disclosing such information could lead to market manipulation by unscrupulous market participants.

On May 29, the ban on entry of Russian tourists to Norway came into effect. Additionally, transit trips through Norway to other European countries are prohibited for Russians, as announced by the government in Oslo last week, according to Deutsche Welle.
The Norwegian authorities specified that the ban does not apply to Russians who have a student or work visa, holders of a border resident's card, residence permits in Schengen countries, or those traveling to Norway to visit relatives.

[found some civilian level info]
Sweden's new military aid package, announced on May 29, includes two ASC 890 airborne early warning and control aircraft equipped with the latest radar systems.
The ASC 890 aircraft function as advanced radar tracking systems and airborne command posts capable of coordinating the operations of aviation, naval forces, and missile forces, while detecting a variety of threats, such as fighter jets, helicopters, cruise missiles, and naval targets.
"ASC 890" stands for Airborne Surveillance and Control, meaning Air Combat Command and Air Surveillance Platform in Swedish. It is a twin-engine Saab 340 propeller aircraft equipped with a fixed Erieye radar on the roof, developed by the Swedish military-industrial complex.
The Erieye radar can track ships, planes, missiles, and even hovering helicopters up to a distance of 300-400 km at an altitude of 6,100 meters. It covers an effective observation area of over 500,000 square kilometers, allowing the ASC 890 to operate from a safe distance from enemy forces.
The aircraft is equipped with a wide range of communication facilities, providing connectivity with involved units and other control centers both on the ground and in the air, allowing anti-aircraft troops to transmit their data through the plane.
According to the official specifications, the ASC 890 can perform the following missions:
▫️Air and sea surveillance, including reconnaissance
▫️Early air warning
▫️Control over own military assets
▫️Surveillance and control of national borders
▫️Search and rescue
▫️Alarm notification
▫️Airspace protection
The crew consists of six people, and the aircraft can fly for about six hours.
These aircraft will provide Ukraine with "absolutely new opportunities for radar reconnaissance and combat control of targets in the air and at sea."

Paramedic Iryna Tsybukh with the call sign “Cheka” was killed during a rotation in the Kharkiv direction on Wednesday, May 29.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

NATO has only 5% of the air defense capability needed to adequately protect the eastern flank in case of real war - FT
One of the Alliance's diplomats noted that the ability to defend the skies is considered one of the most important components of plans for a scenario in which the allies will have to defend Eastern Europe, and "at the moment, there are no such capabilities."
The interlocutors also said that NATO's updated defense plans already include much higher requirements for air defense readiness than before, and the allies will invest in these capabilities.

🇱🇹 Lithuania is allocating €5 million to Ukraine for the reconstruction of schools and kindergartens affected by Russian shelling. These funds will also be used to equip bomb shelters in educational institutions.

Russian troops attacked an ambulance in Nikopol, Dnipro region, with a drone, killing the driver, according to Regional Administration authorities.
The driver's wife has been hospitalized in critical condition as a result of the attack.

Several Ukrainian media outlets, citing their sources, report that a night operation by the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) has destroyed two Russian boats KC-701 Tunets in the temporarily occupied Crimea
The operation was conducted near the village of Chornomorske, Yevpatoria district. Magura V5 marine drones were used for the operation.

The United States is concerned https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/05/29/us-ukraine-nuclear-warning-strikes/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR0izib7BPEuzchlgkL-3Sob2ee8vGrMwTEF_hZYWEWqB3m7sgZM6eVjPdo_aem_Abh4aodCzh8y7ZgHbgERCADb_SxoW6IVUPccPBDYeEK3tOaoadV-eBvE4W7DWNUQHpyh5MClZwZtJRpoiMJ5qXUn** about Ukraine's strikes on Russian early warning systems for a nuclear missile attack, as they could “dangerously disturb” Moscow at a time when the White House is evaluating lifting restrictions on the use of American weapons on Russian territory - WP.
“These facilities have not been involved in supporting Russia's war against Ukraine,” says the U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, “but they are sensitive sites because Russia may believe its strategic deterrent is being targeted.

Kyiv Metro will increase the intervals between trains by about one minute during off-peak hours and 45 seconds during peak hours due to a shortage of workers, in particular, drivers, electricians, and turners, the utility company said.
The reasons for the shortage of specialists include forced migration, the specifics of professions, and mobilization.
“In particular, about 7% of metro employees are currently in the ranks of the Armed Forces, and their number is constantly increasing.”

The Russian Orthodox Church has announced that soldiers who perished in the Special Military Operation have begun to resurrect [I assume that's either a direct mistranslation, or they mean resurrect in heaven. Not earth :D ]

🇺🇳🇮🇷Today, the United Nations plans to hold a ceremony in memory of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash.

”NATO has only 5% of the air defense capability needed to adequately protect the eastern flank in case of real war - FT
One of the Alliance's diplomats noted that the ability to defend the skies is considered one of the most important components of plans for a scenario in which the allies will have to defend Eastern Europe, and "at the moment, there are no such capabilities."
The interlocutors also said that NATO's updated defense plans already include much higher requirements for air defense readiness than before, and the allies will invest in these capabilities.”

• *Not at all surprised by that…back in the days when the Eastern flank was the western side of the Inner German Border that part of the world bristled with SAM sites (the likes of Hawk) and most mil airfields had SAMs for short range air defence…even the UK itself had layered Air Defence with short range and long range fighters (Lightning and F-4) plus for a while SAM sites protecting assets on the East Coast (Bloodhound).

Air Defence became a bit unfashionable because it’s expensive and not really needed if you are blinkered enough to believe you’ll only be involved in expeditionary warfare in far off countries and/or you are a country which believes it’s so far west the eastern flank doesn’t matter..🤐

The interlocutors comments (last para) are all fine and dandy but fingers need pulling out PDQ…a bit too much use of the future tense for my liking..

Is there a chance that things (ie, planning and actually placing orders right now) can be happening on the quiet?

Sadly I very much doubt it TBH, for example the manufacturers aren’t great at keeping quiet about multi multi million dollar/euro orders.

Yeah ... Rheinmetall :-)

The U.S. Army on May 29 inaugurated the new Universal Artillery Projectile Lines facility in Mesquite, Texas, that will produce 155 mm artillery munitions and is part of Washington's effort to modernize its shell production. https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-new-factory-opens-in-us-to-produce-more-155-mm-shells-amid-kyivs-high-demand-to-defend-itself-from-war/

The plant is state-of-the-art, with digitally controlled fabrication and inspection capability. As demand changes, it can also easily switch to manufacturing other shell sizes (down to a 60mm mortar shell).

Army inaugurates Universal Artillery Projectile Lines facility

Wow.

I mean, it’s good news, yes. Just remember that Russia is producing nearly 5 million annually and for way, way less in terms of cost. Let’s not think this is anything other than catching up at this point.

Similar this side of the water…Franco/Belgian company, going to take a while to get it up to full steam.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/france-to-open-plant-for-production-of-155mm-shells-in-belgium/

It's not even subtle now! How much are people donating to United 24?

I decided €50 to defence should cover it!

Perhaps some posters would benefit from this little contribution 🙂

Nice.

@MissConductUS despite the best efforts of bad actors on this thread to sow despair and discord amongst Ukraine's allies and with their governments, I am ever thankful that the US as a member of NATO continues to show leadership to support a war in Europe so far from its shores when there are other pressing demands in the rest of the world.

It is the truth that there would not be a Ukraine if the US did not step in 2022 and why Russia resents the US for giving more than a ride to Zelensky and showing up Russia as a military paper tiger. Not to mention the Ukrainian courage and fighting spirit 💪

💙💛

Since the non-stop Ru attacks on Kharkiv, I have been donating more than ever to Kharkiv volunteers to directly support Ukrainian defenders on the ground. I feel helpless but at least this is one thing I can do.

United 24 is a good cause. Damn those trolls and shills.

All good news but 18months away from full production and nothing like the Russians are manufacturing, the 155mm is longer range, i believe, which is brilliant.

Is the UK boosting any ordnance production?

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-plans-to-ramp-up-weapons-production-for-ukraine-and-western-defence-as-lord-cameron-reveals-envoy-will-oversee-national-priority-13128072

Eh, a load of guff like this is all I can see from a quick search. Not heard anything more outside of promises to invest.

Two years into a war that everyone talks up as being the biggest priority. Sounds like they need to maybe do something by now, not talk more.

Just putting it out there, finding this thread and mumsnet generally very hard work at the moment. Not sure if it’s me or if there’s something in the water….

Exactly "Boost production over the next decade"

Which is weak sauce. I cannot believe they come out with National Service as a floated idea, and somehow haven't a plan for ramping up production of the very things needed by those soldiers they expect to appear.

There's a reason the US keeps the Lima Tank Plant open producing small amounts of Abrams that will (hopefully) never even be used. It's to retain the knowledge and facilities to manufacture these things, because once they're lost in some shortsighted cost cutting measure, it's very hard to claw back again.

The UK, like most of Europe, fell really hard on the "America will always protect us in the end" line of thinking. And it is not a very wise position to be in when you have an enemy in your back yard.

Stay strong! We got this 🙂🇺🇦❤️

It was ironically the Remain campaign that convinced me. Campaigners credited the EU (and EEC before it) for peace in Europe since 1945, a claim which disregarded the role of NATO forces in keeping the Russians at bay, and also ignored events such as the Yugoslav wars. The dishonesty of the claim rankled.

There has also been support from some integrationists (Macron prominent among them) for a unified armed forces. That really does risk undermining NATO.

Do you think the EU can act more coherently towards Russian aggression or do you think 27 separate countries would do better?

It would appear that 26 countries can do better if they don't have one rogue state holding them to ransom. There have been collective efforts to procure aid without involving the EU's institutions which have been able to bypass Orban as a result.

As for the situation in the UK post-2016 I'll just say that I preferred the suggestions from the likes of Lord Hannan that we respect the closeness of the result by applying to join EFTA as a halfway house, rather than Theresa "Brexit means Brexit" May's cack-handed approach to the early negotiations. But this is all off-topic. Back to Ukraine.

Peace in Europe came about via nuclear weapons existing. If we got through WWII without the Manhattan Project, I daresay there'd be wars going on still in the manner Europe had been practising for centuries beforehand. We just love a good war, it seems.

Everything politically fractious went to proxy conflicts during the Cold War instead. No one was stupid enough to have a peer conflict between the two nuclear capable superpowers, so you ended up with Vietnam, Afghanistan or Latin America. Europe had the likes of Operation Gladio instead of any major eruptions in warfare terms, so it was all covert statecraft trying to move pieces on a board without triggering anything too drastic.

If you want to read some chilling stuff, I recommend Command & Control by Eric Schlosser to see just how close we came to accidentally starting a nuclear war many, many times through sheer incompetence at times. I live not far from where the Mighty 8th were stationed, and I didn't know a local airfield had a B-45 with a nuke on it crash and luckily not detonate.

It’s therefore interesting that now, the threat of nuclear retaliation is what’s preventing us getting the Ukraine situation dealt with once and for all. If the nuclear threat was off the table, we would have gone in long ago with at least a no fly zone, if not boots on the ground.