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Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

991 replies

MagicFox · 09/05/2024 13:25

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

**
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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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265
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 28/05/2024 16:16

The people I knew who did National Service had fairly positive memories, though it wasn't a discussion that came up often admittedly.

But I couldnt agree more that it needs to be done -well- and on track record, that isn't likely to happen. Badly done it'll do more harm than good by soaking up resources and dispiriting good military people.

MMBaranova · 28/05/2024 18:56

Hard to sum up relatives’ feelings, but there’s stoicism through a very long grind. Often told that childhood / youth / schooling / relationships / setting up home / family life / livelihoods / old age have been stolen.

Many near misses.

1 wounded.

2 dead.

1 probably dead.

L1ttledrummergirl · 28/05/2024 19:02

@MMBaranova I am so sorry to hear your update. I've been thinking of your family often and hoping for a positive update. I have no words that could adequately sooth your loss, but please accept my condolences for your losses.Flowers

Mb76 · 28/05/2024 20:36

@MMBaranova I am very sorry about your losses 😢

PerkingFaintly · 28/05/2024 21:30

I'm so very sorry, @MMBaranova .

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 28/05/2024 21:33

I'm so sorry @MMBaranova

Igotjelly · 28/05/2024 21:34

Oh @MMBaranova I’m so sorry ❤️

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 28/05/2024 21:35

It's saddening news; I wish you every possible good for dealing with it.

blueshoes · 28/05/2024 21:35

@MMBaranova @MMBaranova my heart goes out to you and your families. It is a truly senseless war but one in which Ukraine, Europe and the free world cannot afford to lose.

blueshoes · 28/05/2024 21:53

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-27-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • The NATO Parliamentary Assembly called on member states to lift their prohibitions against Ukraine using Western-provided weapons to strike within Russian territory.
  • Spain signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Ukraine on May 27.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian long-range early warning radar systems and oil and gas infrastructure within Russia on May 26 and 27.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine that Ukraine is not an independent state and that Russia can unilaterally and forcibly change Ukraine's borders.
  • The New York Times (NYT) reported on May 26 that Western intelligence officials stated that the Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) are behind a series of low-level sabotage operations throughout Europe that aim to disrupt Western arms supplies to Ukraine and create the appearance of a European movement opposing support for Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on May 27 that he signed documents that will allow French military instructors to visit training centers in Ukraine.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) offered to help Armenia mitigate the effects of flooding in northern Armenia, although Armenia has not publicly requested help from Russia.
  • Russian officials are considering delisting the Taliban as a prohibited organization in Russia and will likely do so in the near term.
  • Russia may sign an agreement with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) exchanging weapons for a Russian logistics hub at Port Sudan on the Red Sea.
  • Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Lyptsi and Russian forces advanced near Svatove and northwest of Avdiivka.
  • Russian forces continue formalization efforts for irregular units.
Naem · 28/05/2024 22:01

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 28/05/2024 16:12

Naem
Well I confess I have to disagree, IF it is done well (which I doubt it would be), it can be an extraordinarily positive thing both for the individuals involved and for the country,

I don't really think this is the place for this discussion, but I think we can agree that done badly (which on previous form for this country it would be: I am old enough to have known people who did National Service, and it was good for nothing) it is futile, and promising it in the run-up to an election is a cynical political ploy.

Think I can agree with all of that, election ploy, and if implemented poorly done. It is not the sort of thing that could be well done overnight, so likely to make things worse and distract attention. BTW does anybody still do Cadets in High Schools in Britain? My DH did it at his local grammar school converted to comprehensive, but that would have been the early 1980s. Taught him to shoot and take apart a gun and I am not sure what else, but he really enjoyed it, it was one of the relatively few extra curricular activities available (probably because somebody other than the school funded it, but no idea who). I think part of the idea of that was to potentially have them as some sort of reserve.

Naem · 28/05/2024 22:05

@MMBaranova Bit behind in the thread so only just got to your update. Really, really sorry to hear.

EdithStourton · 28/05/2024 22:38

Naem · 28/05/2024 22:01

Think I can agree with all of that, election ploy, and if implemented poorly done. It is not the sort of thing that could be well done overnight, so likely to make things worse and distract attention. BTW does anybody still do Cadets in High Schools in Britain? My DH did it at his local grammar school converted to comprehensive, but that would have been the early 1980s. Taught him to shoot and take apart a gun and I am not sure what else, but he really enjoyed it, it was one of the relatively few extra curricular activities available (probably because somebody other than the school funded it, but no idea who). I think part of the idea of that was to potentially have them as some sort of reserve.

Some school still have cadets. Two of my DC did it. Basic weapons handling and how to take apart engines, mostly.

WinterMorn · 28/05/2024 22:59

I am sorry @MMBaranova. I can’t find the right words.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 28/05/2024 23:09

@MMBaranova I'm so sorry.

L1ttledrummergirl · 28/05/2024 23:51

My three also did cadets and can shoot pretty straight.
They can also camp outdoors, build a shelter and fire and map read with a compass.

Ds1 likes heading to Dartmoor with his tent every now and again, just because he can.

dibly · 29/05/2024 01:09

@MMBaranova so sorry to hear about your losses,
I’ve never felt more futile seeing the number of social media posts about injured or killed Ukrainians. I hope I’m able to dance on Putin’s grave one day.

Natsku · 29/05/2024 06:52

MMBaranova · 28/05/2024 18:56

Hard to sum up relatives’ feelings, but there’s stoicism through a very long grind. Often told that childhood / youth / schooling / relationships / setting up home / family life / livelihoods / old age have been stolen.

Many near misses.

1 wounded.

2 dead.

1 probably dead.

I'm so sorry for your losses Flowers

blueshoes · 29/05/2024 08:14

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin grossly misrepresented the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian domestic law on May 28 in order to further promote the Kremlin information operation claiming that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is no longer the legitimate president of Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk directly responded to Putin's deliberate misinterpretation of Ukrainian law and explicitly stated that the Ukrainian Constitution and laws stipulate that Zelensky remain in office until the end of martial law in Ukraine.
  • Russian allegations about Zelensky's lack of legitimacy are a known Kremlin information operation that Kremlin officials have been promoting extensively in recent weeks, in part targeted at foreign audiences.
  • The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)'s Committee on Culture supported a resolution that recognizes Russia's deliberate erasure of Ukrainian culture as an element of Russia's genocidal campaign in occupied Ukraine, consistent with ISW's longstanding assessment that Russia is pursuing a broad occupation strategy premised on eradicating Ukraine's national identity and independence.
  • Russian authorities are preparing to intensify the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia throughout Summer 2024, further consolidating another component of Russia's genocidal campaign in Ukraine.
  • Iran's continued support for Russia's defense industrial base (DIB) and provision of lethal aid to Russia is bolstering Russia's technological output and military capabilities on the battlefield in Ukraine.
  • The Georgian Parliament overrode Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili's veto of Georgia's Russian-style "foreign agents" law in an 84-to-4 vote on May 28.
  • A limited segment of the Russian ultranationalist information space has resumed its standard public criticisms of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and warned that new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov may not solve certain systemic issues within the Russian MoD and military.
  • Portugal and Belgium both signed long-term bilateral security agreements with Ukraine on May 28.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed support on May 28 for delisting the Taliban as a prohibited organization in Russia, indicating that Russia will likely do so soon.
  • Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Lyptsi, and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
  • The Russian military is reportedly intensifying efforts to recruit citizens from Central African countries to fight in Ukraine.
lifesabitchandthenyoudie · 29/05/2024 08:34

@MMBaranova thank you for your updates. Please know that we are thinking about you all.

Would I be correct in thinking it's possibly time for another donation to the cause....?

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/05/2024 10:51

I don't dare answer that, but money to a reliable Ukraine cause is always good!

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/05/2024 12:57

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Swiss lawmakers demand tougher action against spies https://kyivindependent.com/swiss-lawmakers-demand-tougher-action-against-spies-ahead-of-peace-summit/ ahead of peace summit.
The proposal, which has already been supported by the parliament's lower chamber, is seen as a means to curb Russian intelligence activities in the country ahead of the June peace summit for Ukraine.

⚡️Sweden announces https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-announces-new-1-3-billion-military-aid-package-for-ukraine/ $1.3 billion in military aid for Ukraine in largest package ever.
The package includes ASC 890 radar reconnaissance and control aircraft @notimagain the "entire Swedish stock" of Pansarbandvagn 302 infantry fighting vehicles, artillery shells, anti-air missiles, and materials to help maintain and replenish previously donated military equipment, the defense ministry said.

⚡️ Ukraine can use Belgian F-16s https://kyivindependent.com/belgian-pm-ukraine-can-use-belgian-supplied-f-16s-only-on-ukrainian-territory/ only on Ukrainian territory, Belgian PM says.

⚡️Defense minister: Ukraine may receive https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-receive-first-f-16-very-soon/ first F-16s “hopefully very, very soon,” but around half of the military aid from Western partners is arriving late, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in an interview with Reuters published on May 28.

⚡️PM: First batch of shells under Czech-led initiative may arrive https://kyivindependent.com/first-batch-of-shells-under-czech-led-initiative-may-arrive-in-ukraine-in-coming-days-fiala-says/ in Ukraine 'in coming days'.

⚡️ WSJ: Russia aims to produce 6,000 Shahed-type drones https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-russia-aims-to-produce-6-000-shahed-type-drones-a-year-in-tatarstan/ a year in Tatarstan.
Russia plans to produce 6,000 Shahed-type drones per year, in addition to surveillance drones, at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on May 28, referring to a contract leaked by the Prana Network hacker group.

⚡️Russia speeds https://kyivindependent.com/russia-speeds-up-recruitment-of-mercenaries-from-africa-military-intelligence-says/ up recruitment of mercenaries from Africa, military intelligence says.
New mercenaries from Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, and Uganda are being recruited as assault troopers by a specially created unit of the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukraine's military intelligence said.

⚡️Sweden announces new energy https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-announces-new-energy-aid-package-worth-around-60-million/ aid package for Ukraine worth $60 million.

⚡️ Sending troops to Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/sending-polish-troops-to-ukraine-shouldnt-be-ruled-out-polish-fm-says/ 'shouldn't be ruled out,' Polish FM says.
Poland should not rule out sending its troops to Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview with the newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza published on May 28

⚡️ PM Shmyhal to meet EU leaders in Prague https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-to-meet-eu-leaders-in-prague-to-discuss-military-aid-for-ukraine/ to discuss military aid for Ukraine.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko signed a law suspending Belarus's involvement in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), which was designed to establish limits on the number of arms and equipment in NATO and Warsaw Pact countries. https://kyivindependent.com/lukashenko-suspends-belaruss-involvement-in-conventional-armed-forces-treaty/

⚡️Partners asked Sweden to pause plans on Gripens for Ukraine to focus on F-16s https://kyivindependent.com/partners-asked-sweden-to-pause-plans-on-gripens-for-ukraine-to-focus-on-f-16s-minister-says/ minister says.
Sweden was asked by partners to wait with possible plans on sending Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, as the focus is now on providing Kyiv with F-16 aircraft, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson told the TT news agency on May 28.
Jonson added that the pause does not mean the transfer of Gripens will not become relevant again in the future.

Georgia's parliament voted on May 28 to overrule President Salome Zourabichvili's veto of the controversial foreign agents law, moving the legislation closer to its likely enactment. https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-parliament-overrules-presidents-veto-of-foreign-agents-law/

⚡️Poland plans to create a 200-meter buffer zone at the border with Belarus, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on May 29. The announcement came after a Polish soldier was left in critical condition after being stabbed through the border fence with a makeshift spear the previous day. https://kyivindependent.com/pm-tusk-says-poland-will-create-buffer-zone-at-belarusian-border-following-attack-on-border-guard/

⚡️FT: Despite promises, Western companies continue https://kyivindependent.com/ft-despite-promises-western-companies-continue-russian-operations/ Russian operations.
A number of Western companies have continued their operations in Russia despite earlier pledges to exit the country, the Financial Times (FT) reported on May 28, citing sources.

⚡️Reuters: Indian refinery to purchase https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-indian-oil-refinery-strikes-deal-to-to-purchase-russian-oil-in-rubles/ Russian oil in rubles.
The operator of the world's largest oil refining complex, India's Reliance Industries, has reached a one-year agreement with Russia's state-controlled oil company Rosneft to purchase oil in rubles, Reuters reported on May 28.... Reliance Industries is set to purchase at least 3 million barrels of oil a month in the Russian currency from Rosneft. [the currency has been a serious point of contention between the two countries]

⚡️Russian media: Alibaba stops accepting https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-alibaba-stops-accepting-rubles-shipping-to-russia/ rubles, shipping to Russia.
Chinese multinational Alibaba, the owner of the online shopping portal AliExpress, has stopped accepting payments in rubles and no longer allows the delivery of orders to Russia, Russian business newspaper Kommersant reported on May 28. [ok now it's serious, right?]

⚡️Sanctions against Russia are not working https://kyivindependent.com/ft-sanctions-against-russia-are-not-working-says-uae-trade-official/ says UAE trade official.

⚡️Court sets bail https://kyivindependent.com/court-sets-bail-for-ex-deputy-head-of-presidential-office-smirnov-at-almost-250-000/ for ex-deputy head of Presidential Office Smyrnov at almost $250,000.

What will Russia's attack on Kharkiv printing house mean for Ukraine's publishing industry https://kyivindependent.com/russias-attack-on-kharkiv-printing-house-puts-publishing-industry-at-risk/

⚡️Russia attacks Donetsk Oblast village with 1.5 ton bomb, injuring 3 people.
⚡️Russian attack on Donetsk Oblast town kills couple, injures 3.
⚡️ Russian forces struck Sumy Oblast 81 times in 23 separate attacks throughout the day, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 28.
⚡️Death toll in Russia's May 25 attack on Kharkiv rises to 19, Governor says.
⚡️Russian attack on Sumy Oblast kills 2.

⚡️Mediazona confirms identities of nearly 54,200 Russian soldiers killed https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-nearly-54-200-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/ in Ukraine.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

  • MAY 29, 2024
■ Casualties & engagements above 7-day average ■ Massive equipment losses including record high special equipment losses ■ Less shelling but increased 🇷🇺 strikes while only 3 🇺🇦 strikes reported ■ Poternet: +567 🇷🇺 KIA added
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
blueshoes · 29/05/2024 14:37

⚡️Partners asked Sweden to pause plans on Gripens for Ukraine to focus on F-16s https://kyivindependent.com/partners-asked-sweden-to-pause-plans-on-gripens-for-ukraine-to-focus-on-f-16s-minister-says/**minister says.
Sweden was asked by partners to wait with possible plans on sending Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, as the focus is now on providing Kyiv with F-16 aircraft, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson told the TT news agency on May 28.
Jonson added that the pause does not mean the transfer of Gripens will not become relevant again in the future.

@notimagain do you know why is this? Could it be not enough Ukrainian pilots?

Allies asked Sweden to pause plans on Gripens for Ukraine to focus on F-16s, minister says

"We have been urged by the other countries in the coalition to wait with the Gripen system," Defense Minister Pal Jonson told TT in Brussels, adding: "This has to do with the fact that the focus is now on introducing the F-16 system."

https://kyivindependent.com/partners-asked-sweden-to-pause-plans-on-gripens-for-ukraine-to-focus-on-f-16s-minister-says

notimagain · 29/05/2024 15:02

do you know why is this? Could it be not enough Ukrainian pilots?

It’ll be a shortage of pretty much everything..

It’s really tough and time consuming introducing one major new type into service, even in peace time..it’s not just a case of training pilots, you’ve got all the ground crew to train, plus all the support facilities/logistics that need putting in place to back the aircraft up when it arrives.

Given it looks like getting Grippen in any numbers is some time off, whilst hopefully, please F-16 is imminent it makes sense to me to just throw everything into supporting introduction of the first type likely to arrive, i.e. the F-16.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/05/2024 16:05

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The United States, as before, is against Ukraine's use of American weapons for attacks on the Russian Federation, State Department representative Matthew Miller said at a briefing.

As of now, only four countries that have officially joined the Czech initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine have made monetary contributions, according to Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová.
In total, 18 countries have joined the initiative, but only four—Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Portugal—have allocated funds for the purchase of ammunition.

❗️If Biden does not attend the Peace Summit, Putin will celebrate, said President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The documents developed at the peace summit on Ukraine in Switzerland will subsequently be transferred to the Russian Federation, according to President Zelenskyy.
“We must develop three points in detail: nuclear security, food security, and the humanitarian sphere, and then transfer them to Russian representatives,” Zelenskyy noted.

US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo has arrived in Ukraine.

Sweden has announced a new aid package worth SEK 650 million (€56.5 million) to support Ukraine's energy sector, according to the Swedish Embassy in Ukraine. The assistance will be divided as follows:
▫️SEK 500 million (€43.5 million) will be financed through the Energy Community's Energy Support Fund for Ukraine.
▫️SEK 150 million (€13 million) will be provided through the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Ukraine.
The aid aims to ensure the continuous supply of energy to critical infrastructure, enabling Ukrainian schools, hospitals, transport systems, water supply, and industry to function properly.

The Committee on Culture of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has recognized the erasure of Ukrainian cultural identity as a tool of Russia's war against Ukraine and an element of genocidal policy aimed at destroying the Ukrainian nation, said Yevheniia Kravchuk, a member of the Ukrainian delegation to PACE.

🇫🇮 Finland has allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use Finnish weapons on Russian territory, according to Elina Valtonen, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
She stated that a country waging a defensive war can strike military facilities on the aggressor's territory if it is necessary for self-defense.

🇨🇦 Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly stated that Canada did not set any conditions for Kyiv regarding the use of the transferred weapons.

Ukraine should be allowed to use weapons provided by the European Union to neutralize military facilities from which missiles are launched, including if they are located in Russia, — French President Emmanuel Macron at a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

🇺🇦🇪🇸 Ukraine has agreed with Spain on assistance in strengthening its air defense, but details will not be disclosed until all supplies are approved.

Sweden has presented its 16th and largest package of military aid to Ukraine, totaling $1.3 billion, according to Sydsvenskan.
The package includes ASC 890 radar reconnaissance and control aircraft and Sweden's entire stock of Pansarbandvagn 302 (Pbv 302) tracked armored personnel carriers, which will be donated to Ukraine to help form new army brigades. Additionally, Sweden will provide artillery ammunition and resources to maintain previously transferred equipment.
To further strengthen Ukraine's air defenses, the package also includes 99Rb air-to-air missiles (AMRAAMs), which can be used on both aircraft and ground-based air defense systems. These missiles, which have a launch range of up to 70 km, were previously assembled in Sweden and are used by Swedish JAS 39 Gripen multipurpose fighters.

One of the European countries ordered air defense shells worth hundreds of millions of euros from Rheinmetall.
The European customer ordered 35-mm AHEAD ammunition for the Skynex air defense system, according to a statement from the German company’s press service.
"The total value of the order is in the three-digit millions of euros range. A six-digit number of cartridges will be produced."
The Skynex system is based on an anti-aircraft gun and is particularly suitable for close-range protection where guided weapons may not be effective. The use of AHEAD programmable 35 mm ammunition, developed by Rheinmetall for this purpose, is significantly cheaper than similar systems based on guided missiles. Additionally, 35 mm ammunition cannot be affected or countered by electronic countermeasures," the statement said.

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