Thread 44 Sunak: Hung parliament and Rishful thinking.

[DuncinToffee]

prevoius thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5066068-thread-43-sunak-seriously-scapegoating?page=40&reply=135107360

Rwanda gets more expensive

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13437877/UK-taxpayers-face-paying-medical-bills-deported-Rwanda-migrants.html

Meanwhile IPSOS Monthly poll data

A lot of people want the Tories out

Ipsos Political Monitor - May 2024

73% people thinks it's time for a change

Notwithstanding @SerendipityJane 's point above which I think is very true more generally I do think single issue voters find it very hard to understand that most voters are multi-issue and don't see their issue as existential. This fact plus the fact the centre is a very broad spectrum is what Labour are exploiting - they don't need to get everything right if enough of the centre think Labour will deliver on 2-3 of their 6 pledges. Even if 60% of the country were thinking about single sex spaces when voting provided they thought schools/hospitals/economic stability/stopping the boats/clean energy and the other one mattered too those other six things would outweigh the single sex spaces issue and secure a Labour vote. The Tories are then gifting them what may well be an epic election win by failing to step up and deliver any meaningful plan on the centrist issues like economic stability people mainly care about.

This has always been a problem for small parties. Greens cannot see that other people do not spend as much time as them thinking about the climate crisis. Reform only talk to people as invested in immigration as them. As a result they cannot translate their concerns into wider political success. It is actually very difficult to talk to people who disagree with us and the internet has made it easier than ever to only talk to people who disagree with us.

As a psychologist I think feelings have a lot more to do with political behaviour than rationality. This is why the Tory politicians keep picking on quite far-right talking points and prefer audiences which won't challenge them. Its a shit strategy for winning an election, but this move to the margins and single issues is a very sensible way to retain a sense of psychological safety when under threat. They are essentially behaving like rats going into tunnels.

I'm not debating TWAW or that fact I dont trust labour anymore.

That's my view, and as an adult human female life-long labour voter, it is valid.

However, I will make a prediction on the GE results.

I predict a lower turnout than expected and a small labour majority.

Reform will get seats.

In effect, this will mean 5 years of not much happening, and the UK will further decline.

If labour don't get their act together, I could see a hung parliament.

Reform will get seats.

Very unlikely (I'd bet on it). You might be able to win a few local council seats with a pisspoor turnout and one note soundbite. But when it has to go head to head with grown up parties with a spread of policies (and therefore appeal) the bar to FPTP is too high.

Remember, for all his popularity, Farage has been unable to win a seat in any election where he's up against relatively moderate candidates.

Reform - and before them the Brexit Party and before them UKIP are all paper tigers. This far down the line it's inconceivable that Tory strategists weren't aware of that. The entire Tory push to the right has been a giant con on the rather dim Tory membership that allowed them to dump any semblance of small-c conservatism with the abomination we see today.

The latest polls are showing that reform are losing support,

That's my prediction.

I hope I'm wrong.

I think lots of seats, especially in areas with a high Muslim demographic, will go independent.

I also think a LOT of quiet tories might stay at home, which will mean a lower turnout.

Add to the general feeling about politicians in general atm, and I don't see a turnout above 60%

And - let's not forget - the tories will do their best to gerrymander.

(Although their efforts with voters ID seems to have had the opposite effect to their original plan!) :)

Entirely agree. I’d put money on Reform getting no seats at all. It will definitely split the Tory vote and lose them even more seats.

Shall we draw a line under the trans conversation again and ignore any attempts to bring us back to it? There's so much else to talk about.

I think it's more a case that as you widen your focus, their support starts to fall away since it's really a ont-trick-pony. Although I grant you the end result is the same.

Reform aren't really a political party. They are a pressure group hoping to scare the Tories into becoming Reform by a Stalinesque purge of the moderates. That's why they have no national campaigning apparatus.

When the election is announced,. and the MSM has to grudgingly give airtime to the Greens, LibDems and so on, then Reform will lose a lot of it's free publicity, And poll even lower.

And whatever way you slice it, Reform are the Tories problem. Not Labours.

I thought we had.

But not enough to count as losing the election. That shop sailed years ago.

You're right. WE have ☺️

We’re getting close to the end of this thread - any genius ideas for the title of the next one?

I don't know, we've obviously still got some trying to push Rishi's ridiculous line on the chances of a hung parliament!

The blood scandal report has been published, I have only read parts so far but is horrific

I think even his own side told him to shut up over that. It was so cringeworthy.

I think turnout at the next election will be high. People are very angry about the destruction of their essential services.

I agree, I think anger with the Tories will drive turnout - and it won't adversely affect Labour, quite the opposite.

Not that I want a supermajority Labour government because that's bad for democracy, but the Tories show no sign of accepting that they need to move back to the centre, not ever further right, if they're to be a credible opposition.

Thread title: Sunak: Still in a river in Egypt

Sunak - winning or nearly winning.

I'm at the stage where I think the thread (all threads in fact) should be titled - Give us an election & fuck off.

I've really got over my life long aversion to GE's. I suppose I can thank the current version of the Conservative Party for that. Tedious but necessary.

I think it'll be statistically on a par with all UK general elections. That is around about 70%. Meaning 1 in 3 are quite happy with whatever the outcome is.

It could be 71% It could be 69%. It won't be 90% or 50%. There are some outliers, but the deviation isn't really that alarming.

"Thread title: Sunak: Still in a river in Egypt"

Like this 👍

On hung parliaments that was an own goal as it meant Beth Rigby could ask him after his 'Everything is terrifying vote for us' speech that since he said he'd never go into coalition AND that the next election would return a hung parliament we are essentially looking at a Lab-Lib pact and he won't be PM so why bother? Which absolutely baffled him.

Not that I want a supermajority Labour government because that's bad for democracy,

Is it ?

It would certainly allow the government to be relaxed about their own MPs voting against bills which are still quite safe to pass. If said government wanted that. It's certainly no more bad for democracy than the current whipped system which replaces conscience.

It's almost as if he was talking complete bollocks isn't it ?