Iran launches drones on Israel tonight. Is this very serious as in kickstarting ww3?

[Primroseoil]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/apr/13/iran-launches-drone-attack-against-israel

Like I said - if a country attacks another country, there is usually a response.

That's what history shows. And countries respond to show that they can't be a push over to others.

The Guardian has an update.
For the wording, I understand it to be a no further action.

Iran did declare operation complete after the attack.
Israel will "build a regional coalition and exact price from Iran in a fashion and at a time convenient to themselves". Which I think it means back to where we started?

It sounds like good news.
No further war!

Thank you. ❤️ My mum felt the same way about the Gulf War. She'd just had my younger brother. I try and avoid the news, especially on social media, but we have a radio on at work and sometimes things just pop up and it throws me.

MushMonster what a relief particularly to civilians in the Middle East who don’t live under an iron dome.

It is indeed. A big relief.
Those were Gantz' words after their meeting.

Interesting view here

Why Israel’s attack on Iranian consulate in Syria was a gamechanger | Israel | The Guardian

"The burning question is whether, as Vakil suggests, Israel will feel content to portray its defence against Iran’s attack as a “success” in and of itself or whether it will risk striking back at Iran and further escalating the war.
“Iran’s retaliation was choreographed and telegraphed,” wrote HA Hellyer, a Middle East expert and senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, on X in the immediate aftermath of Iran’s attack.
“[There was] almost zero chance it was going to inflict damage on Israel with that level of warning. The point was to make a scene, and it did that. Iran’s payoff? Reputational advancement as ‘resistance’ internationally.
“We need de-escalation, and it’s imperative [Washington] DC convinces Tel Aviv of its determination not to be drawn into an offensive war with Iran. Netanyahu has been expressing his desire for one for a long time, but will hold back if he is sure the US won’t stand alongside.”

I totally agree with this analysis. I’ve been wondering what format the Iranian response would take, they can’t not respond because one country attacking another’s consulate is basically an act of war, consular territory being equivalent to the country itself. To not respond is to look weak on the international stage; they had to do something (this is the same argument most people use regarding Israel’s action’s following Hamas’ attacks in October, for what it’s worth).

I’ve been hoping the Iranian regime would find some way to launch an attack that resulted in no/minimal damage and it appears that they have done so. They seem to have given so much warning that Israel would have more than enough time to mount an effective defense, though the use of ballistic missiles should hopefully be just enough that everyone knows they are serious.

I seriously hope that this is enough now, and that Israel don’t further provoke.

America is nothing but a paper tiger. What we're witnessing now in Israel are the lunatic death throes of a dying empire. Unfortunately it looks like it may get a lot worse for the poor people on the ground before it gets better.

Iran has made a fool out of it self as the work can see its barking is much worse than its bite. Iran has a pea-shooter armed forces that are only really capable of attacking via proxies against unamered people

This is an insane read. Iran knows exactly what they were doing and will have calculated appropriately. They have responded but not TOO much and not enough to really give Israel a reason to respond. Now if Israel fights back Iran has a green light to go for it which they have been itching to do for years.

Iran getting directly involved and not using proxies is a message. They have nuclear weapons. They are in cahoots with Putin who wants nothing more than the Americans distracted so he can finish Ukraine. If Iran wants this to kick off it will. It’s now had enough time to convert weapons, prepare its armies and its stores and make plans with Russia and China as to what to do and how.

This is a game which has been being played by these men in every country involved (and i absolutely agree the civilians in these countries are not to blame) for decades. They don’t make mis steps. They plan and scheme and know exactly what the response from each person will be whether that is Netanyahu, Biden, Trump, Putin.

If Israel step back and don’t retaliate (which they shouldn’t- it was their attack in the first place that triggered this) Iran will have to simmer down for a while because it doesn’t have its smoking gun.

This is the same playbook everyone used. It’s the playbook the USA and UK use its just that they are (slightly) more balanced and don’t want to wipe out entire religions or races anymore

Apparently last night's drone and missile strike cost Israel around $1bn to defend. I heard this on Radio 4 earlier. They used missiles to destroy drones - expensive weapons against cheap ones - and exposed the flaws in their iron dome defence system.

Basically what's happening in Ukraine as well - it's expensive to shoot down cheap drones.

Also the same with the Royal Navy defending against attacks. It's expensive to shoot down relatively cheap drones.

I was thinking that about Ukraine as I was typing my post here. Also in Ukraine, Russia is adapting old weapons and using drones to fly them to where they then glide in to their targets. Really hard to track and defend against.

@Aussieland

Iran getting directly involved and not using proxies is a message. They have nuclear weapons.

They don’t….yet, but it’s rumoured they could be very close.

Iran does not have nuclear weapons.

Iran has even been attacking Pakistan recently - which does have nukes. Iran under the present administration is a loon of a country. Anyone who sticks up for Iran is very foolish indeed.

They don’t officially no. But their approved nuclear enrichment program gets them within days/weeks of having them ready. They either have some or have the potential to have them ready at any moment should they choose to. They know if they do it’s a massive statement and likely would only if they were going to use them otherwise the USA et al would be pretty unhappy.

@cakeorwine

Whilst H A Hellyar is certainly a Middle East expert he has no military knowledge or experience to make the statement that "there was zero chance it was going to inflict damage on Israel with that level of warning ".

The truth is that last night militarily no one had a bloody clue if the Iranian attack would be successful or not. The drones are small and low flying to evade radar. Very easy for Hellyer to make that statement after the event.

@cakeorwine

"However - Israel did attack an Iranian Embassy. They had their reasons - but what did Israel expect to happen?"

To be factually accurate Israel did not attack an Iranian Embassy they attacked a building next door to the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

@cakeorwine

Actually the British SAS stormed the Iranian Embassy in 1980 to defeat terrorists leaving a burnt out building - should Iran have attacked the UK for this?

They do not have nuclear weapons , they have a nuclear program, it’s very different

According to most e here yes we should have

Clear lack of understanding of context

6 missiles fired at a Consulate building seems like an attack to me on something that is seen as part of a country.

Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus - Wikipedia

Your analogy with the Iranian embassy siege in London seems very different.

Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons. Yet. But I'd expected to have imminently. A huge problem for the whole world, not just Israel. This is the perfect excuse to make the likelihood of Iran having them any time soon increasingly unlikely. I wouldn't be surprised if many countries would be very supportive of Israel going ahead to remove the threat, with their support.

Iran has been using / funding proxies against Israel for years - Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis. The ultra-conservative leaders are a threat to their own population since the revolution and the rest of the world too. They have plenty of weapons but lack military rigour. They're a competent threat but not unbeatable. The issue - as always - will be threat to civilian life.

Yes. The fear that Iran’s Arab and other neighbours have of a nuclear armed Iran is a major factor. Nobody wants it, although Israel is obviously the most worried.

Significant and widely-backed conflict with Iran within the next ten years seems inevitable.

Biden has said he won't retaliate, but? I'm not so sure. I don't want people/countries blindly going there. I am neither for or against because there's such a long history. If it came down to it, I don't have a side. What about you?

Edited cos I said 'send' and not 'said'