Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Watching with interest

I'm afraid the United24 has lost something in the translation.

Yep, just a bit...

@MissConductUS thank you for the explanation. Quite a number of things get slightly altered in translation, I think, along with simple mistakes due to fog of war at times and sometimes carefully omitting some information that leads to a mistaken impression. Nowhere near as bad as Russia, but not everything can be taken at face value.

While it pains me to say it, Trump is the only one who has said that he's open to greatly increasing aid to Ukraine as a way of putting pressure on Ukraine

Trump said this? The last I heard Orbán (the oh-so-reliable source) said that Trump would cut off all aid, which does in fact tally with the idea that "he'd solve the conflict in a day" (also, did you mean 'putting pressure on Russia' or on Ukraine, sorry?)

It's hard to know what will happen if Trump gets in, given how odd he is, but if he will increase aid then great.

Well then we'd really start to panic wouldn't we!

Btw I don't listen / watch talk tv but this interview was linked on Twitter and I actually found it quite level headed and useful:

Yes, I meant put pressure on Russia, not Ukraine. I heard about the remarks to Orban.

His threat to increase military aid to Ukraine was made in the context of his claim that he could "end the war in 24 hours" by putting pressure on both sides.

Trump said he could end Ukraine war nearly a year ago but still hasn’t laid out specifics

I would tell Zelenskyy, ‘No more. You got to make a deal.’ I would tell Putin, 'If you don't make a deal, we're going to give him a lot. We're going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to.'

In a perverse, alternate universe sort of way, his statement to Orban is consistent with this. He'd tell Ukraine "no more aid" and tell Putin, "Settle or the Ukrainians get everything in the arsenal."

That signaled to Putin that someone isn't afraid to escalate against him, which is what needs to be done now IMO.

Oh agree that sending way more is necessary - and escalation, because weakness provokes Putin.

Trump really does live in an alternate universe doesn't he! I imagine Putin is rather afraid of him simply because he's so unstable.

The fairly much expected has happened regarding Dutch politics.

The very far- right anti-immigration Gert Wilders (one step removed from the guy who believes in lizardmen) was elected a few months ago to succeed PM Rutte.

But in the NL the Govt works by a coalition of parties and no one can agree to work with him.

So he's apparently abandoned his claim to be the new PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68557036

UK Ministry of Defence update

This have me a rare moment of cheer this morning as it made me laugh (from Private Eye)

Another good Mark Galeotti interview that expands on his usual talking points: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/silicon-curtain/id1661722315?i=1000648600465

The link doesn't work for me as I don't have apple podcasts, what's it called and I'll look on Spotify.

It's called Silicone Curtain

Going to post this separately as it shows the reality of the medical system. Grim.

The Kyiv Independent doesn't shy away from a critical approach at times, fortunately.

'Abandon all hope:' Ukraine’s wounded warriors compare military medical system to the Inferno https://kyivindependent.com/abandon-all-hope-ukraines-wounded-warriors-compare-military-medical-system-to-the-inferno/

The Kyiv Independent interviewed dozens of veterans, military personnel, and civilian volunteers helping the military. They describe a military medical system that’s fundamentally broken on every level, no matter where you are, no matter how you’re injured.

As a reward for fighting Ukraine’s battles, veterans have to fight a callous, sometimes corrupt, outdated bureaucracy that’s often working against them, while they are at their most physically and psychologically vulnerable.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Putin dismisses peace talks 'just because (Ukraine) is running out of ammunition https://kyivindependent.com/putin-negotiating-just-because-ukraine-runs-out-of-ammunition-is-ridiculous/

⚡️Russia says it will not participate https://kyivindependent.com/russia-will-not-participate-in-switerzland-peace-talks-even-if-invited-foreign-ministry-spokesperson-says/ in Switzerland peace talks even if invited

⚡️ EU ambassadors agree on $5.5 billion in principle for Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/eu-ambassadors-agree-on-5-5-billion-for-ukraine-defense-fund/ defense fund in 2024.

⚡️ EU Parliament proposes additional safeguards https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-amends-proposal-on-free-trade-regime-with-ukraine/ for European farmers in Ukraine trade deal.
The parliament's amendments are meant to reinforce "safeguards for EU farmers in case of a surge in Ukrainian products." The changes were backed by 347 members of the parliament (MEP), with 117 voting against it and 99 abstaining.

⚡️NATO, China discuss https://kyivindependent.com/nato-china-discuss-war-in-ukraine-at-military-staff-talks/ war in Ukraine at military staff talks.
NATO and China held their eighth annual military staff talks on March 13 in Beijing, where the two delegations discussed global and regional security issues, including Russia's war in Ukraine.

The European Commission will present a proposal next week on restricting Russian and Belarusian agricultural imports, Polish news outlet RMF24 reported on March 13, citing an anonymous EU diplomat. https://kyivindependent.com/media-eu-to-propose-restrictions-on-russian-belarusian-grain-imports/

⚡️Bloomberg: Ukraine's recent drone strikes hit facilities representing 12% of Russia's oil-processing capacity. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-ukraines-recent-drone-strikes-hit-facilities-representing-12-of-russias-oil-processing-capacity/ [That's a hell of a lot. Assuming that some facilities can be repaired fast, it's still a notable hit against Russia]

⚡️Syrskyi visits front line, https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-visits-front-line/ says Russia failed to occupy new settlements.
All settlements that Russian forces are trying to occupy remain under control of Ukraine's Armed Forces, despite the difficult situation in the eastern sector, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on March 13, following a visit to the front line.

⚡️RFE/RL: Head of former Russian anti-war presidential candidate's campaign arrested https://kyivindependent.com/rfe-rl-head-of-former-russian-anti-war-presidential-candidate-nadezhdins-campaign-arrested/
Igor Krasnov, the head of the short-lived presidential campaign of Russian anti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin, was arrested in the Russian city of Vladivostok on March 13 and sentenced to six days in prison for "propagating extremist LGBT," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported.

Fighting between anti-Kremlin militias and the Russian army is taking place in five settlements near the Ukrainian border, Oleksii Baranovskyi, a fighter with the Freedom of Russia Legion, said on air on March 13. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-anti-kremlin-militia/

⚡️Russian oil refinery partially shuts down https://kyivindependent.com/russian-oil-refinery-shuts-down-rostov/ after drone attack.
Certain "technological facilities" of the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov Oblast have shut down after an overnight drone attack, Rostov Oblast Governor Vasiliy Golubev said on Telegram on March 13.

⚡️ Ministry: Ukrainian hackers disrupt transport services https://kyivindependent.com/ministry-ukrainian-hackers-disrupt-payment-system-in-moscow-subway/ in Russian cities.
Hackers of the IT Army of Ukraine targeted the Russian government and local systems, disrupting the fare payment system in Moscow and Kazan public transport, the Digital Transformation Ministry said on March 13.

⚡️ Media: Ukrainian journalists deported from Poland https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukrainian-journalists-deported-from-poland-after-investigating-trade-with-russia/ after investigating trade with Russia.
Two journalists of the Rayon.ua.in news outlet were detained in Poland and deported while reporting on a trade on the Russian-Polish border, the news outlet said on March 13.

⚡️SBU detains https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-alleged-russian-agent-planning-to-blow-up-kharkiv-railway/ alleged Russian agent planning to blow up Kharkiv railway.

⚡️ Bloomberg: European Investment Bank in talks on investing https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-eib-investments/ in EU defense sector.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) is in talks to invest in defense companies amid heightened urgency to scale up Europe's defense industry, Bloomberg reported on March 13.

The military is not expecting 500,000 men to be mobilized immediately, and this figure is a general estimation that will be adjusted depending on the situation at the front, the Defense Ministry said in a comment to the Financial Times (FT) on March 13. https://kyivindependent.com/military-not-expecting-immediate-mobilization/

⚡️Putin: Cross-border incursion https://kyivindependent.com/putin-claims-russian-anti-kremlin-militia-incursion-from-ukraine-aimed-to-disrupt-elections/ by Russian anti-Kremlin militia 'attempt to interfere in elections.’

⚡️ Austria expels 2 Russian diplomats. (https://kyivindependent.com/austria-expells-2-russian-diplomats/
Austria had expelled two Russian diplomats over actions "incompatible with their diplomatic status," the Heute newspaper reported on March 13, citing the Austrian Foreign Ministry.

On average, Ukrainians spend 66% of their budget on food and mandatory expenses, according to a survey conducted by Deloitte Ukraine released on March 13. https://kyivindependent.com/survey-ukrainians-spend-66-of-budget-on-food-mandatory-expenses/

⚡️ Poll: 70% of Ukrainians have friends or relatives with front-line experience. https://kyivindependent.com/70-of-ukrainians-have-friends-relatives-front-line-experience/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• MAR 14, 2024

■ Strikes below average & fewer engagements ■ Casualties slightly down but above 7-day average ■ Fewer equipment losses but weekly special equipment losses at a record level ■ Oryx: 98 🇷🇺 30 🇺🇦 identified (85 & 29 w/cleanup)

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Kyiv needs approximately €120 billion a year in military aid for Ukraine to win the war, says Kusti Salm, Permanent Secretary of the Estonian Ministry of Defense.
Estonia has proposed a financing plan for Ukraine. They are considering borrowing on the financial markets or from national budgets. Estonia is currently seeking more than 100 billion euros to achieve this goal.
"If the 50-plus countries that are part of the Ramstein coalition, which provides military support to Ukraine, spent 0.25% of their GDP, it would amount to more than 120 billion euros a year. With this amount by 2025, Ukraine will reach a level where it will be able to impose resistance on Russia," Salm said. Even if this amount of money starts coming to the budgets now, its impact will take almost a year.
"It will take about nine more months for the supplies to reach the level necessary for Ukraine to convincingly reach this level of depletion."

Ukrainian teenagers are taken to Russia from the occupied territories to train as drone operators.
About 100 children aged 14-17, who are in the ranks of the 'Yunarmiya', are being taken to the 'Yuntech' training camp.
The Resistance reminds that on May 9, children who have joined the "junior army" will be initiated in the temporarily occupied territories. Joining is both voluntary and forced, as children are forced to write applications to "avoid problems."
All schools in the occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are to set up "junior military" branches by May 9.

US to open a plant in Australia to produce long-range guided missiles for HIMARS for Ukraine's needs — Wall Street Journal.
Lockheed Martin reportedly plans to hire six Australian engineers to prepare and launch production. The decision was made because the US defense industry cannot meet both its own demand and quickly replenish missiles for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
"Rapid consumption of ammunition in Ukraine and the Middle East has undermined the ability of the US industrial base to meet demand and replenish depleted stockpiles. The Biden administration is trying to establish several production lines in allied countries for critical weapons, though it is not easy," the WSJ writes.
Australian officials note that the first batch of 12 GMLRS missiles is scheduled to be tested in late 2025, and by 2030 the country expects to produce thousands of munitions annually. The plan may be hampered by a lack of personnel, transportation difficulties, and a shortage of components needed for production.
The missiles are to be manufactured at a military base on the outskirts of Sydney.

Pyrotechnics of the regional rescue service have found and defused 42,661 explosive devices since the start of the liberation of Kherson region. Among them, 20 aircraft bombs were destroyed, the regional State Emergency Service reported.
📸: State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kherson region/Facebook

State Border Guard Service of Ukraine's aerial reconnaissance destroyed an air defense system, 2 armored vehicles, 2 trucks, a warehouse and hit the positions of the invaders on the left bank of Kherson region.

Another top executive of Lukoil, Vice President Vitaly Robertus, has passed away in Russia. He dedicated 30 years of service to the company.
Robertus’s death marks the fourth among Lukoil’s top managers in the past two years.

Russia currently has approximately 5,580 nuclear warheads — Reuters.
Of those, about 1,200 are retired but largely intact and around 4,380 are stockpiled for use by long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces, according to the FAS.
Of the stockpiled warheads, 1,710 strategic warheads are deployed:
▫️about 870 on land-based ballistic missiles,
▫️about 640 of submarine-launched ballistic missiles,
▫️and possibly 200 at heavy bomber bases.
Reuters points out that such figures mean that Moscow "could destroy the world many times over."

LLC "Ukrainian Armored Technology" has successfully completed testing of the 10-seater specialized armored vehicle "Novator" equipped with the domestically produced combat remote-controlled module "TAVRIA-14.5".

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The European Commission will propose to limit grain imports from Russia and Belarus next week
An unnamed European diplomat has told https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-beda-unijne-ograniczenia-importu-zboza-z-rosji-i-bialorusi,nId,7387694#crp_state=1 RMF FM that the European Commission's proposal will include quotas on food products from Russia and Belarus. The EU wants to avoid a full embargo, fearing global price fluctuations and a negative impact on poorer countries.
The transit of Russian and Belarusian agricultural products will continue to be allowed, according to the article.

The Prime Minister of Finland: Russia is preparing https://euobserver.com/eu-political/158219 for a long war with the West
According to Antti Petteri Orpo, Russia is "obviously preparing for a prolonged conflict with the West and poses a constant and existential military threat to Europe."
"Imagine what will happen next if Russia succeeds in Ukraine," the Finnish prime minister told MEPs.
He noted, however, that Russia's military capabilities are limited, and every euro in support of Ukraine is "a low price compared to the alternative costs if Russia wins."

🇫🇷 The former leader of the French right-wing populist National Rally, Marine Le Pen, who had a long-standing reputation as a "friend of Putin," unexpectedly harshly criticized https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1767603021511315706?t=cVLmtNgIXGZXypl_VOmqfw&s=19 Russia for the war during a parliamentary debate on support for Ukraine.

⚡️In February, Ukraine started exporting electricity for the first time since November
Poland is now the largest importer of Ukrainian electricity.
Russia tried to leave Ukraine without electricity, and now we are helping other countries with electricity.

The Mark Galeotti podcast is excellent, but when he's talking about living under occupation he does rather miss the human cost of the rapes, children being stolen, murders. He covers so many angles in depth but that rather leapt out as missing.

Summary of Macron's address just now by @faytuksnews

We have one goal: Russia cannot and must not win", French president Macron says

The war is on European soil... all options to help Ukraine are possible. To have peace in Ukraine, you must not be weak",l

"if Russia were to win the war, the lives of the French would change and we would no longer have security in Europe"

Choosing to abstain or vote against support for Ukraine is not choosing peace, it's choosing defeat", Macron says, adding that "Russia is an adversary but we are not waging war on Russia"

"Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Romanians, the Bulgarians could remain in peace for a second in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine", Macron asks, adding that:

"if Russia wins this war, Europe's credibility would be reduced to zero"

“We cannot exclude taking new initiatives at the European level to help Ukraine. There is only one person responsible for this situation - the Kremlin regime"

"We have put too many limits on our vocabulary. Those who set 'limits' in support for Ukraine are choosing defeat", Macron says

THE END.

wow. /salute Macron!

Macron demurred about western troops in ukraine but then this just published through FranceNews24:

🔴 NEWS ALERT - #Société : French regiments are said to be on their way to #Roumanie , in preparation for deployment in Ukraine against the Russian army, notably at #Odessa . Among them, the 2nd Foreign Infantry Regiment #Nîmes is mentioned.

Wow, really? This could change the entire direction of the situation!

We'll see, he said we weren't there yet according to those summarising his speech so it's a bit weird that then this is published simultaneously. Let's just see...

This is the only French source saying that so pinch of salt for now

I do wonder if he’s just trying to up the pressure.

Also what isn’t clear from that quote from FranceNews24 is whether it means going to Romania for immediate deployment or going to Romania for potential future deployment, the devil will be in the detail.