Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City.
• The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.
• US officials continue to signal their support for new Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025, although ISW continues to assess that Ukraine should contest the theater-wide initiative as soon as possible because ceding the theater-wide initiative to Russia for the entirety of 2024 will present Russia with several benefits.
• European intelligence agencies reportedly warned their governments that Russia is planning to conduct “violent acts of sabotage” across Europe as part of a “more aggressive and concerted effort” against the West.
• The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) seized on the Orthodox Easter holiday on May 5 to further its efforts to garner domestic support for the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Robotyne.
• Bureaucratic issues continue to constrain frontline Russian units’ ability to conduct strikes on Ukrainian targets.

Ukrainian man who was drafted into the Russian army from an occupied territory ended up shooting 6 Russian occupiers to death
The Russians are now furious and are searching for him.

Brave man and well done. My god, I hope the Russians don't find him.

Pressed the wrong button. Did not mean to quote MagicFox's OP.

I keep thinking about that. Just how many Ukrainians are drafted unwillingly into the army?

But it says everything about that sort of Russian mindset here - force unwilling people to do something they deeply hate and believe is wrong, and then get furious and full of hate when they rebel.

Brave man and well done. My god, I hope the Russians don't find him.

My thoughts, too.

The leader of the Democrats in the House said in an interview that American forces would become involved in fighting the Russians if Ukraine fell.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrat-leader-jeffries-pro-putin-faction-in-gop-delayed-ukraine-aid-60-minutes/

If you parse his words carefully, he's not saying that we would intervene in Ukraine; he's saying that Putin's next move would be to invade a NATO ally whom we would have to defend.

Still, it should rattle the Russian's cage a bit. I think he's also making the case for more aid to Ukraine.

The US provisioning of ATACMS probably also surprised the Russians. I don't think they saw Biden as willing to take that step.

In military theory, this type of statement and the provisioning of ATACMS is known as "escalate to de-escalate" and is more typical of Russian doctrine than NATO or US doctrine. But the US seems to be doing it now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5npwdv3wzo

More bluster or is this actually a little bit concerning? Could be nothing but it seems to give the Russians a nuclear option in the case of a Ukrainian counter attack quickly encroaching Russian territory.

It's actually a classic case of the doctrine I referred to above.

https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/10/russia-escalating-de-escalate

The Russians already have a nuclear option.

They already have that option though, and have had since this all kicked off. I worried about this for about 1 second, and then refused to give it head space. It’s not even high on the news agenda here.

It’s aimed at scaring the West into inaction…..again. Between Macron’s comments on troops, Cameron’s saying British weapons can be used inside Russia and the unblocking of the US aid package things have started to move in the right direction again and Putin must be shitting it.

It feels like it’s the usual “but look we have big scary nukes” from Putin as he frantically waves his micro-penis.

I meant to comment on this this morning, but the day got away from me.

The primary HOJ weapon in the US inventory is the AGM-88 HARM air to ground missile. The Ukrainians have them, but they only operate in one mode when fired from their Russian made aircraft. The target location has to be loaded into the missile when it's mounted on the plane, which greatly limits their usefulness. When the UAF starts flying F-16s, it will be a much more useful weapon. See the linked article for more details.

The enemy can turn off the jammer when they're under attack (which is often helpful by itself, as it blinds them to other attacks), but the missile will store the target's last known location and continue to that point. I assume these bomb guidance kits will have a similar capability.

The AGM-88 saw a lot of use in Operation Desert Storm against the Iraqi air defenses. Unfortunately, there were a few friendly fire incidents when they were used to target coalition radars. So they have to be used with some care.

Oh, there have been more nuclear tactical exercises - about 2 so far since the start of the war. Just another way of trying to intimidate the West, I reckon.

ISW: Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Head Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian authorities have created the infrastructure necessary to conscript Ukrainians in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and plan to conscript more than 150,000 Ukrainians into the Russian army in an unspecified time period.

Ive just realised this is perfect from the Russian pov.

It means that the Russian forces will advance and it also gets rid of the 'subhuman' Ukrainians and makes the land easier to occupy.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Von der Leyen after meeting Xi: 'More effort needed' to curtail Chinese dual-use goods https://kyivindependent.com/macron-xi-von-der-leyen-meet-to-discuss-ukraine-other-topics/ deliveries to Russia.
"We've also discussed China's commitment not to provide any lethal equipment to Russia. More effort is needed to curtail the delivery of dual-use goods to Russia that find their way to the battlefield," von der Leyen said after the meeting.

⚡️ Bloomberg: EU plans to ban Russian funding for political parties, think tanks. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-eu-plans-to-ban-russian-funding-for-political-parties-and-think-tanks/ [Dear God, about 20 years too late!]

⚡️ Germany temporarily recalled its ambassador from Moscow on May 6 after Berlin accused Russia of launching cyberattacks, Reuters reported, citing a German Foreign Ministry spokesperson. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-temporarily-recalls-ambassador-from-russia-after-cyberattacks/

The U.K. Defense Ministry was struck by a cyberattack likely carried out by Chinese hackers, Sky News reported on May 7.
The latest cyberattack was reportedly directly attributed to the Chinese state, according to Sky News. It targeted the payroll system of defense ministry employees and resulted in the breach of an unspecified amount of personal data. https://kyivindependent.com/media-uk-defense-ministry-hit-by-cyberattack-from-china-linked-hackers/

⚡️Bugging devices were found in a room on May 7 that the Polish Council of Ministers were scheduled to meet in, said Jacek Dobrzynski, a spokesperson for the Polish security service. https://kyivindependent.com/bugging-devices-found-in-room-where-polish-government-was-scheduled-to-meet/

⚡️Netherlands plans to begin F-16 aircraft deliveries https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-to-begin-f-16-deliveries-in-autumn/ to Ukraine in autumn.

⚡️ Russia threatens UK military installations, equipment 'in Ukraine and abroad' after Cameron's remarks. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-threatens-to-target-british-military-facilities-in-ukraine-and-abroad-after-camerons-remarks/

⚡️ Military: Russia trying to regain control of Nestryha Island. https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-trying-to-regain-control-of-nestryha-island/
Russian forces have launched repeated assaults in an attempt to retake the recently liberated Nestryha Island in Kherson Oblast, a military official said on May 6.

⚡️ Syrskyi: Russia trying to break through defenses to reach Kurakhove, Pokrovsk. (https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-russia-trying-to-break-through-defenses-to-reach-kurakhove-pokrovsk/)

⚡️ Spanish defense minister: Ukraine receives Patriot missiles https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-received-patriot-missiles-from-spain-defense-minister-says/ from Madrid.

⚡️ Yermak: Ukraine aims to finalize security agreement https://kyivindependent.com/yermak-ukraine-aims-to-finalize-security-agreement-with-us-in-may/ with US in May.

⚡️Media: Russia no longer using Crimean Bridge https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-no-longer-using-crimea-bridge-to-supply-front-lines/ to supply front lines.
Russia has stopped using the Crimean Bridge to transport military equipment to the front lines and is instead using overland routes in occupied parts of eastern Ukraine, The Independent and investigative group Molfar reported on May 6.

⚡️ Military spokesperson denies reports of destroying bridge https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-denies-reports-of-destroying-bridge-over-key-donbas-canal/ over key Donbas canal.

⚡️ Politico: Poland has a secret weapon https://kyivindependent.com/politico-poland-has-a-secret-weapon-to-turn-donald-trump-against-russia/ to turn Donald Trump against Russia.
Poland is hoping its out-of-power populists can help turn Donald Trump against Russia and persuade him to further support Ukraine, Politico reported on May 6.

⚡️Polish judge defects https://kyivindependent.com/rfe-rl-polish-judge-defects-to-belarus/ to Belarus.

⚡️Update: Russian vessel destroyed near Crimea identified as Mangust-class patrol boat. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-ukraine-destroys-russian-speedboat-in-occupied-crimea/ The Mangust-class vessels, worth around $3 million a piece, are used by Russia as multi-purpose high-speed crafts for patrolling, countering subversive operations, and search and rescue, the military intelligence agency said.

⚡️ US representatives not to attend Putin's inauguration. https://kyivindependent.com/us-representatives-putin/

⚡️Reuters: France to send https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-france-to-send-ambassador-to-putins-inauguration/ ambassador to Putin's inauguration.

Jailed Russian journalist and opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza, a Washington Post contributing columnist, has won the Pulitzer Prize for the commentary he has been writing from his prison cell. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-dissident-kara-murza-wins-pulitzer-prize-for-commentary/

⚡️ Authorities: Russian attack on Sumy Oblast injures 3, including children.
⚡️Russia attacks 11 communities in Sumy Oblast.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• MAY 7, 2024

■ Casualties above 7-day average despite fewer engagements ■ Equipment losses below average but drones, tanks & special equipment above ■ Increased 🇷🇺 artillery strikes; unfavorable strike ratios

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Head of EU diplomacy Borrell opposes the presence of EU representatives at Putin's "inauguration" ceremony after the so-called "re-elections".

The EU is bracing for a potential sudden halt in gas supplies from Russia, according to European Commissioner Simson. With the gas transit contract between Russia and Ukraine nearing expiration, the EU aims to synchronize its response with Ukraine.
Simson emphasized that the EU has been strategizing for this scenario for the past two years.

Negotiations on the continuation of Russian gas transit to Europe via Ukraine can only start after Moscow withdraws its troops, said Kadri Simson, the European Commissioner for Energy, after talks with Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko.
The current gas transit contract expires in December and will remain in force until then.

Germany has announced that it will not send its representative to Putin's inauguration. The Baltic countries, which no longer have ambassadors in Moscow, have also categorically ruled out their presence at the inauguration.

The Russian Federation will perceive the appearance of F-16 aircraft in Ukraine as carriers of nuclear weapons regardless of their modification, — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.

✈️ Netherlands plans to transfer F-16s to Ukraine this fall [Just sayin', again]

The Russian State Duma swiftly passed amendments to the law "On Basic Guarantees of Electoral Rights," barring "foreign agents" from participating in any Russian elections, as reported by Deutsche Welle.
Currently, over 400 individuals are listed as "foreign agents." While some are abroad, many remain in Russia. Russian officials have previously asserted that inclusion in the "foreign agents" list does not violate rights but merely entails state oversight of foreign funding. However, the newly adopted bill effectively strips them of passive voting rights.

Leaders of only eight countries will come to the parade in Moscow on May 9 — Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan.
And also specially invited President of Cuba Canel Bermúdez, President of Laos Thongloun Sisoulith and President of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau Sissoco Embaló.

Italy is calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine and peace talks with the Russian Federation, saying that Western sanctions have not had the desired effect and that the West itself has overestimated its influence in the world, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said in an interview with Il Messaggero.
It is worth noting that the Italian defense minister continues to support the decision to send weapons to Ukraine. After all, this decision makes it possible to obtain the necessary "time and conditions to achieve a ceasefire and peace".

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

DIU on the announcement of nuclear exercises in Russia: We see nothing but statements
Commenting on Russia's intentions to conduct tactical nuclear weapons exercises, DIU representative Yusov said that nuclear blackmail is a stable practice of the Putin regime.

Berlin is prepared to defend every centimeter of NATO-allied territory in the face of any new threats, — Olaf Scholz

The Independent: Russia no longer uses the Crimean bridge to supply weapons https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-crimea-bridge-russia-land-routes-b2540140.html
Since February 29, only one Russian freight train carrying about 55 wagons of fuel has been spotted using the bridge.

🤡The fifth presidential inauguration of Vladimir Putin began in the Kremlin

UPD: Radio Liberty has received https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-inavhuratsiya-putina-uchast-yes/32936115.html a full list of EU countries whose representatives will attend Putin's inauguration
🇫🇷France;
🇭🇺Hungary;
🇸🇰Slovakia;
🇬🇷Greece;
🇲🇹Malta;
🇨🇾Cyprus.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin appears to be re-intensifying a reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making using nuclear threats and diplomatic manipulation.
• Russian elites and Kremlin officials are reportedly vying for influential positions in the Russian government ahead of the Russian presidential inauguration on May 7 to prematurely secure powerful roles in the event that Russian President Vladimir Putin leaves power around the end of his new term. [Putin leaves power?]
• A Russian insider source, who has routinely been accurate about past Russian military command changes, claimed that the Russian military command appointed the commanders and chiefs of staff of the newly formed Leningrad and Moscow military districts (LMD and MMD).
• The Kremlin continues tightening the restrictions on individuals it designates as “foreign agents,” restricting their ability to serve in government roles, likely in a disguised purge of officials who do not adequately align with the Kremlin.
• Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted a successful maritime drone strike against a Russian patrol boat in occupied Crimea on May 6, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly adapting their maritime drones to combat Russian defensive measures.
• Russia may be switching sides in the Sudanese civil war to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in pursuit of a Red Sea naval base for Russia, which would align Iranian and Russian Sudanese policy and create opportunities for increased Iranian-Russian cooperation in Sudan and the broader Red Sea area.
• Russia has pursued a Red Sea port since 2008 to protect its economic interests in the area and improve its military posture by increasing its ability to challenge the West in the broader region, including in the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean.
• Russia backing the SAF would greatly benefit Iran by aligning Iranian and Russian policy and strategy in the region, which would advance Iran’s own aims of securing a Red Sea base in Sudan.
• The Kremlin is additionally pursuing secondary objectives, including sidelining Ukrainian and US influence in Sudan, through its outreach to the SAF.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances northwest of Svatove, near Avdiivka, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Head Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian authorities have created the infrastructure necessary to conscript Ukrainians in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and plan to conscript more than 150,000 Ukrainians into the Russian army in an unspecified time period.

Pekka Kallioniemi
AT P_Kallioniemi

SBU states that a network of five Russian agents attempted to assassinate President Zelenskyy, the head of the SBU Vasyl Malyuk, head of GUR Kirill Budanov and other high-ranking officials.

Russia being Russia, eh?

@DancesWithDucks they were apparently 2 Ukrainian colonels recruited before the start of the invasion. The plan was to take Zelensky hostage and then kill him. They also planned to assassinate Budanov and the head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vasyl Malyuk and other high-ranking officials.

Frightening that Russia laid the plans so early on and are still actively trying to kill the Ukrainian leadership.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine.
• Russian ultranationalists lauded the start of Putin's fifth term as a historic event and explicitly approved of the autocratic tradition in which Putin is casting himself, with one of them hailing him as "imperator," the formal title of the Russian tsars since the time of Peter the Great. Russian ultranationalists also expressed hope that Putin will continue to deepen an anti-Western ideology that the Kremlin has been heavily developing since the start of the full-scale invasion.
• The current Russian cabinet of ministers and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin formally resigned on May 7 as constitutionally mandated, and the ministers who return to service and the ones whom Putin replaces will indicate who has Putin's favor and signal his political priorities for his fifth term
• Belarus has announced a surprise nuclear readiness inspection likely as part of the Kremlin's re-intensified reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making.
• Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on May 7 that it exposed a network of Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) operatives who were planning to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence and military officials
• The Russian Prosecutor General's Office declared US non-governmental organization (NGO) Freedom House an "undesirable organization" on May 7, likely as part of an ongoing effort to consolidate control over the domestic information space and further deprive Russians of access to civil society organizations and independent assessments of Russian civil and political rights.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian occupation officials continue efforts to forcibly recruit Ukrainian civilians into the Russian military in occupied Kherson Oblast.
• The Kremlin is working with occupation administrators to strengthen Russia's control over the child welfare system in occupied Ukraine.

@blueshoes Frightening to be unable to completely trust your own apparatus ... and Colonels are not low ranking.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Putin inaugurated to 5th term in office in ceremony largely boycotted by West. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-inaugurated-to-5th-term-in-office-in-ceremony-largely-boycotted-by-west/

⚡️European Parliament lawmakers call for suspension of Georgia's EU candidate status. https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-lawmakers-call-for-suspension-of-georgias-eu-candidate-status/

⚡️ Bloomberg: EU planning restrictions on 11 vessels of Russia's shadow fleet. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-eu-planning-restrictions-on-11-shadow-fleet-vessels/

Accusations from both Ukraine and Russia that the other has used chemical weapons during the full-scale invasion remain "insufficiently substantiated," the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) said on May 7.
https://kyivindependent.com/opcw-both-russian-and-ukrainian-chemical-weapons-claims-insufficiently-substantiated/

⚡️ Belarus announces snap inspection of tactical nuclear https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-inspects-nuclear-capable-military-units/ delivery capabilities. The announcement came a day after Russia, Belarus's key ally, said its forces would practice the usage of tactical nuclear weapons to counter what it referred to as "provocative statements and threats from certain Western officials.

Reuters: Half of North Korean missiles fired by Russia blow up in mid-air, Ukraine's top prosecutor says. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-half-of-north-korean-missiles-fired-by-russia-blow-up-in-mid-air/

⚡️President Iohannis: Romania open to discussing sending Patriot to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/romania-open-to-discussing-sending-patriot-to-ukraine-says-president/

⚡️ Denmark donates $33 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-33-million-in-humanitarian-aid-for-ukraine/

⚡️ Italian FM: Rome sends Ukraine weapons only for use within its borders. https://kyivindependent.com/italian-fm-rome-sends-ukraine-weapons-only-for-use-within-its-borders/

⚡️UK and allies sanction leader of Russian ransomware group.
The U.K., U.S., and Australia announced sanctions on the Russian leader of the cyber-crime gang, LockBit, the U.K.'s National Crime Agency (NCA) announced on May 7. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-and-allies-sanction-leader-of-russian-ransomware-group/

A Russian Su-30 fighter jet producer bought back its own military equipment previously sold to foreign partners worth over $400 million in 2022 and 2023, the Russian independent outlet Moscow Times reported on May 7, citing customs data. https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-warplane-maker/

⚡️Bloomberg: Russia uses TikTok content to undermine Ukrainian leadership, Kyiv says.
Russia is increasingly using the TikTok social media platform to undermine Ukraine's morale and the legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelensky, a senior Ukrainian official said in an interview with Bloomberg published on May 7.
"Russia is dominating us on TikTok due to the scale" of its operation, said Andrii Kovalenko, the head of an anti-disinformation department at the National Security and Defense Council.
"The Russians have begun working systematically on TikTok and are utilizing this platform successfully."https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russia-uses-tiktok-content-to-undermine-ukrainian-leadership-kyiv-says/

⚡️Investigation reveals https://kyivindependent.com/investigation-reveals-that-almost-11-000-criminal-cases-have-been-halted-because-defendants-volunteered-to-fight/ that almost 11,000 criminal cases have been halted because defendants volunteered to fight. [legally, these should be for minor crimes; people going to trial for serious crimes are not allowed to volunteer]

⚡️ Government backs proposal on unmanned systems Armed Forces branch.
The government supported on May 7 a draft decree by Zelensky on the creation of a separate Armed Forces branch dedicated to unmanned systems, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said. https://kyivindependent.com/government-backs-proposal-on-unmanned-systems-military-branch/

⚡️Ukraine marks https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-marks-first-day-of-remembrance-and-victory-over-nazism-in-wwii-since-official-date-change-in-2023/ first 'Day of Remembrance and Victory over Nazism' in WWII since official date change in 2023.

Opinion: The REPO Act hasn’t won the war for Russian assets
"While the decision to confiscate Russian assets under the REPO Act cannot be subject to appeal by Russia as a state in U.S. courts, individuals and legal entities still have the right to do so," writes Andrii Borovyk, Executive Director of Transparency International Ukraine, in this guest op-ed. https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-the-repo-act-hasnt-won-the-war-for-russian-assets/
"We should, therefore, expect lawsuits from Russian banks and companies. Russia could also appeal to international courts. Appeals at both the domestic and international levels could delay their transfer to Ukraine.

⚡️Russia launches large-scale https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-large-scale-attacks-across-ukraine-air-defenses-at-work-across-the-country/ attack against Ukraine, air defenses at work across the country.
⚡️At least 2 injured, energy infrastructure damaged in large-scale attack against Ukraine.
⚡️ Russian strikes on Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injure at least 6.
⚡️2 Georgian volunteers fighting for Ukraine killed in combat, David Gogadze and Beso Lomidze.
⚡️Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast kill 1, injure 2

An oil depot in occupied Luhansk was struck by ATACMS missiles, causing a mass fire at the facility, the Moscow-installed head of the occupied region, Leonid Pasechnik, claimed on May 8. At least five employees were reportedly injured and hospitalized. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxy-claims-missile-strike-on-oil-depot-in-occupied-luhansk-injuring-5/

⚡️Source: Ukrainian Military intelligence carries out cyberattack https://kyivindependent.com/source-hur-confirms-cyber-attack-on-russias-1c-company/ on Russia's 1C Company.
Based in Moscow, 1C Company is a software developer, distributor, and publisher best known for its widely used business software.

⚡️Ukraine qualifies https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-qualifies-for-eurovision-2024-song-contest-finale/ for Eurovision 2024 song contest finals.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN

• MAY 8, 2024

■ Fewer engagements & casualties; 7-day avg above 1k
■ Equipment below average but record 7-days of artillery losses
■ Fewer strikes; 🇺🇦 strikes combined by GSUA in today's report
■ Poternet: +453 🇷🇺 names added to database

Mark Galeotti's analysis of Putin's inauguration speech copied and pasted below due to paywall.

**

Putin’s theatrics will fail to silence his powerful critics
Russia's President warns Nato to back away from Ukraine, but suggests the country is open to 'strategic dialogue'
Mark Galeottii*May 7, 2024 2:02 pm
Russian President Vladimir Putin walks before an inauguration ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow on Tuesday (Photo: Sergei Ilnitsky/Pool via Reuters)
Vladimir Putin’s inauguration to his fifth term as president – which will make his time in power longer than Joseph Stalin’s – was marked by much pomp, but little circumstance. Meet the new tsar, same as the old tsar.
The Russians do ceremony rather well, from the way Putin’s Aurus limousine swept past a line of Russian tricolour flags to the golden splendour of the Kremlin’s St Andrew’s Hall, packed with dignitaries.
There was a Presidential Regiment honour guard in uniforms inspired by the tsarist Imperial Guard, and a religious blessing by Patriarch Kirill of Moscow at the Cathedral of the Annunciation.
Putin appeared bored. Perhaps this is no surprise. After all, it was not only his fifth inauguration, but also an irrelevant one. The March election, which saw the 71-year-old claiming 87 per cent of the vote, was comprehensively rigged, and this was simply the final act in a piece of cynical political theatre.
The 71-year-old was sworn in as leader for another six-year term (Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / Pool/ AFP)
In his perfunctory speech on swearing the oath of office before a new six-year term, he led with thanks to those “fighting for the Motherland“, and promised that “we will get through these difficult times, and be successful”. There was no sense of when or how.
There is, however muted, disquiet in Russia. For many ordinary Russians, life goes on much as usual, but there is impatience for the war to end, even if not at the cost of capitulation.
When Putin held his last marathon town hall, the single most commonly asked question was: when will the war end?
Putin’s vague promises that there will be a victory someday are not enough.
While Putin offers vague promises that there will be a victory someday, this is not enough.
If anything, the mood was even more sombre among the dignitaries who filed into St Andrew’s Hall to pay their respects. They are much more aware of the long-term costs of the war, and how far Putin is mortgaging the future of the country for an imperial adventure purely of his making.
Rivalries over assets and resources are getting more cutthroat, and even powerful figures such as Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin are trying to distance themselves from the war.
Yet it is hard to see Putin doing anything decisive to address the challenges facing him and Russia, and his inauguration speech did not hint at any new course.
There may be a renewed summer offensive, but as he is still reluctant to take the politically dangerous step of a new mobilisation, it is unlikely to have a major impact on the war.
The Russian leader is about to begin a fifth term at the helm of the country (Photo: Maxim Shemetov/Pool Photo via AP)
Meanwhile, the economy risks overheating, and public services are showing the strain of under-investment, but as he is both unable to win the war and unwilling to negotiate a just peace, there is little Putin can do about this.
Nor is he proving able to win over or intimidate the West. Current military exercises, which include the simulated use of tactical nuclear weapons, have been framed as a response to Western “threats”, but in his speech, Putin tried to balance his usual warnings to Nato to back away from Ukraine with vague suggestions that Russia was open to “strategic dialogue” – if it was treated as an equal.
Putin’s next step is to announce his new government, and although there is little expectation there will be any major reshuffle, it will give us a further sense of whether he agrees there is any need for a change of direction – and whether he dares take it.
The theatrics come amid challenges for Mr Putin as concern grows about his war in Ukraine and the strain on the Russian economy (Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / Pool / AFP)
After all, Putin is a cautious politician who, especially now, is uncomfortable with any churn at the top of his ageing government.
Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is a personal friend, but has also turned out to be a dismal wartime manager.
He is looking especially vulnerable following the arrest of one of his deputy ministers on corruption charges – but will Putin grasp the nettle and see him replaced?
Alexander Bortnikov, head of the Federal Security Service, is 72 years old and apparently ill. There are reports that for some time he has been wanting to retire, but Putin, worried about keeping a tight grip on one of the main institutions protecting him, won’t let him go.
An honour guard of the Presidential Regiment carries a special copy of the Russian Constitution before the grand ceremony at the Kremlin (Photo: Sputnik/Sergei Savostyanov/Pool via Reuters)
Still, Bortnikov looks to be in a better state than Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechnya warlord reportedly suffering from serious pancreatic problems. He was at the inauguration, but needed two flunkeys to take his jacket off for him, suggesting the rumours of ill-health are real.
Nonetheless, Putin has held back from even hinting at replacing Kadyrov, presumably worried about potentially triggering more instability in the already unruly North Caucasus at a time when his army is fully engaged in Ukraine.
In his blessing, Patriarch Kirill told Putin that a president sometimes “has to take fateful, formidable decisions”. Maybe even he was suggesting that Putin needs to do more than just keep calm and carry on.

Interesting summary by Galeotti. I wonder just how powerful Putin's control of Russia really is.

But Galeotti did not mention the successful hybrid war that Putin is waging. The Kyiv Independent's comments today that the Russian TikTok war is successful, and the swing of some Republicans against Ukraine, are not good.

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Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó has responded positively to China's peace plan, citing its existence and focus on peace.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping will arrive in Hungary on May 8 for a three-day visit, his first tour of EU countries in five years.
At least 16 agreements are expected to be signed during the visit, covering joint rail, automotive and energy projects, according to Bloomberg. In addition, two other agreements to expand Hungary's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative are in the works.

Lithuania is prepared to dispatch soldiers to Ukraine as part of a training mission, according to Prime Minister Ingrid Šimonite.
Šimonite informed the FT that she has obtained parliamentary approval to send troops to Ukraine for exercises, a move her government has previously signaled. However, Kyiv has not yet made a formal request.
Acknowledging that such action could be perceived as provocative by Russia, Šimonite stated:
"If we were solely concerned about Russia's reaction, we wouldn't be able to take any action. Every other week, there are threats of nuclear strikes," remarked the Lithuanian Prime Minister.

Latvia transferred communications equipment worth around €100 thousand to Ukraine as part of the IT coalition. The equipment is to provide the brigades with tactical-level communications.

Some 50,000 fake accounts were uncovered in Germany last year, and many of them were found spreading Russian fabrications about the war in Ukraine. And here is one of the most awful lies exposed by Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation. [Russia claimed that the Red Cross said Mariupolitans are harvesting organs from babies]

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on major emerging economies to do more to end the war against Ukraine: step up their diplomatic efforts and participate in a peace summit on Ukraine planned for June in Switzerland, — Deutschlandfunk.

On May 9, Estonian police banned public gatherings using forbidden symbols or expressing support for the war crimes of the Russian Federation.

Rescuers spent more than 10 hours extinguishing a fire in a coniferous forest near the city of Lyman in Donetsk region, which was caused by Russian shelling.

Zelenskyy, has extended an invitation to Greek companies to participate in the restoration of civilian infrastructure in the Odesa region, which has been devastated by Russian strikes. This invitation followed negotiations with the Prime Minister of Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

On the eve of Putin's inauguration, the Anti-Corruption Fund published a video and photos of his palace near Gelendzhik.