Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

lol at your username. I can guess which threads you came from 😂

Russian authorities are claiming a bird strike.
There's video footage from the ground on Telegram which looks very much like an engine falling shortly before the crash

Those must be fucking Rocs to manage to detach a whole engine ...

Thanks everyone and new thread. Been unwell, lost you all.

I hope you are feeling better now!

Report from CSIS: csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-03/240311JonesForwardDefense.pdf?VersionId=3EV7s7gbMmZ3XKzum1W74AJjol2spqV

Think you'll find this particularly interesting @notimagain

Hope too youré better @Positivethought

I'm afraid I'm getting access denied when I try to look at that site...

Any better?

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-03/240311Joness_ForwardDefense.pdf?VersionId=3EV7s7gbb_MmZ3XKzum1W74AJjol2spqV

Perfect, thank you..I'll get around to reading it later..

Thanks, good analysis. There's a lot there for me as well.

It calls for the stationing of four US Army Armor Brigade Combat Teams (ABCT) in Europe, along with two headquarters locations. I'm not sure if politically the Poles are prepared to host one, but it's not my area of expertise.

For those not familiar with the unit:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigade_combat_team

Yes of course! Sorry @MissConductUS I should have tagged you. I wonder what exactly they're imagining when they allude to European "large scale" conflict with Russia or China. I still struggle to get my head around this in the nuclear age.

Also struggle to comprehend the full isolationist narrative urged by eg Elbridge Colby when it's all laid out like this.

What it certainly underscores, again, is the imperative for European defence spending and collaboration to increase sharpish. I wish I had more confidence in European leaders to do what's necessary

I guess I'm substituting European for NATO there but hopefully you get my drift!

Yes, it was clear to me that you meant NATO, as it now encompasses most of Europe. Conflict with Russia would most likely be a result of a Russian attack on a NATO member state.

Conflict with China has more possible scenarios and domains. Were people able to watch the video I posted the other day about the war gaming of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? That, along with an attack on naval and military airbases in Japan are the most likely triggers, and European involvement would likely be primarily naval.

Because of the threat to semiconductor production, Europe has as much to worry about from a Chinese attack on Taiwan as the US does. It would cause a frightful worldwide recession.

Thanks so much for the new thread. Laid up with Covid and watched 20 days In Mariupol this afternoon, and again felt absolute rage with Putin for two years of aggression, and outright lies. his comments the night he started the war that it wasn’t about occupying Ukraine, meanwhile the pope and Trump think it’s ok for Ukraine to capitulate! The injustice is overwhelming at times.

The key thing is you aren’t alone. No one knows quite what a large scale conflict between super powers or blocks would look like because it hasn’t happened. It can be and has been war gamed extensively but there are so many unknowns, not least the fallibility of humans. For example no one truly knows if nuclear weapons would be used until they are.

What we have learned from Ukraine is that old fashioned warfare isn’t consigned to the past, and that’s something that was assumed by many for years.

@dibly I hope you're feeling better now, and shake it off as quickly as possible.

@Igotjelly I guess we just have to hope we don't find out!

Checking in after a long absence.

Hello again @BringBackCoffeeCreams hope you are doing ok. Welcome back.

Ah welcome back @BringBackCoffeeCreams

hey @BringBackCoffeeCreams :)

Sophie Perrin has a link to the Discharge Petition. She says 218 is the magic number to get it passed. https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031209?CongressNum=118

Presumably the first tens of signatures were easy and there'll be a lot of argy bargy over the last tens.

Welcome back @Positivethought @dibly and @BringBackCoffeeCreams

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

• A Ukrainian military observer offered assessments of Russian force generation and defense industrial base (DIB) capacities that are consistent with ISW’s previous assessments.
• Russia’s increased defense industrial base (DIB) production is likely not sustainable in the medium and long-term as it will likely suffer from labor shortages, decreased weapons and equipment stockpiles, and an inability to completely compensate for military and dual-use items it can no longer acquire due to sanctions.
• Transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia by sea have apparently resumed after a pause since mid-February 2024.
• A Ukrainian military source noted that Russian forces are increasingly using grenades equipped with chemical substances in the Zaporizhia direction, in potential violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) to which Russia is a signatory.
• The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has summoned Russian Ambassador to Moldova Oleg Vasnetsov in response to claims that Russia will operate polling stations in pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria during the Russian presidential election.
• Russia, China, and Iran will hold the joint Maritime Security Belt – 2024 naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman between March 11–15.
• The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that the West intends to use Armenia as a tool against Russia, a notable escalation in its information operations criticizing Armenian efforts to distance itself from security relations with Russia.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill on March 11 that allows Russian authorities to further restrict actors it deems “foreign agents” to consolidate control over the Russian information space ahead of the presidential election.
• France is reportedly prepared to build a coalition of countries that are open to potentially sending Western military personnel to Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Donetsk City.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues efforts to cater to Russian servicemembers and their families with the promise of various social benefits.

Telegraph reporting that the Pentagon has found $300m down the back of a sofa:
www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/03/12/us-announces-surprise-300m-military-aid-for-ukraine/