Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Posted 8 mins ago

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/macron-ap-ukraine-russia-french-b2512940.html

I loved macron's comment that he's the French president and he will decide

Good for him.

I don't know if it has been mentioned but Denmark, if I remember rightly, are talking about introducing conscription

Isn’t conscription already a thing in Denmark? I thought they were looking at extending it to women.

Jelly is right. They already have it but now they've extended the term and are including women

from Tim White - slightly jaw dropping

Tim White
At TWMCLtd

Two bits of astonishing and damn funny things to report in western #Russia. Firstly, air defence there is so good that anti-Kremlin legions managed to land a helicopter inside Russia.

And in an hour they're opening a humanitarian corridor for residents to leave #Belgorod/#Kursk

This is the freedom of Russia legion mentioned earlier. They say that they will target Russian bases once the corridor is closed. I'm confused about how large they are , surely they can't be that big?

@shashankjohsi

More exceptionally clear, tough language from Macron. The follow-up question (not just for Macron) is: does a permanent de facto or de jure partition of Ukraine count as a Russian "win"? Clear from context that Macron means "win" as big new Russian advances: '..."If the situation should deteriorate, we would be ready to make sure that Russia never wins that war," Macron said during an interview on French TV'

Thank you,I knew I saw something about conscription

I think they claim about 2 battalions but that means nothing to me 😂 need one of the military types to translate.

I think it’s more about them making mischief over the election period.

https://x.com/FranceNews24/status/1768387750128935142?s=20

NewsFrance24 apologising for their factually incorrect tweet.

For those without Twitter:

MEA CULPA: We would like to sincerely apologize for a recent error in one of our tweets. An unverified and conspiratorial source was inadvertently cited. This does not reflect our journalistic standards. We are committed to correcting this error and strengthening our verification procedures. Thank you for your understanding.

Wow, they got seriously pinned

Punked!

It shows the importance of decent media though, and that includes decent media who own their errors when they occur.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate.
• The rate of Russian advance west of Avdiivka has recently slowed, although Russian forces likely retain the capability to intensify offensive operations in the area at a moment of their choosing.
• Ukrainian actors conducted large-scale drone strikes against energy infrastructure and military assets within Russia on the night of March 12 to 13.
• The governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, claimed on March 13 that her recent meetings with Russian officials in Russia led to deepening economic ties between Gagauzia and Russia, which the Kremlin likely hopes to exploit as part of its wider efforts to destabilize Moldova and prevent Moldova from joining the EU.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled another limited cross-border incursion by the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the night of March 12 and the morning of March 13.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline on March 13.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to censor protests of wives and mothers of mobilized soldiers ahead of the Russian presidential election.

Macron is doing a fine job. Also like Tusk’s words to Johnson, PM Donald Tusk, warned @SpeakerJohnson, that he'll have the blood of thousands of Ukrainians on his hands. “The fate of millions of people” and “thousands of lives” depend on whether Johnson allows the vote (for aid to #Ukraine). “This is not some political skirmish that only matters on the American political scene. Mr Johnson’s failure to make a positive decision will cost thousands of lives. He takes personal responsibility for that.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/13/ukraine-war-briefing-biden-scrapes-together-300m-more-for-ukraine-weapons?CMP=share_btn_url

Really impressed with Macron's words!

Following the fun of games of last night, and for context, aircraft of French Air Force have been operating from bases in Romania on and off since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and French troop deployments in relatively small numbers to Romania have been going on for some time...

https://defence-blog.com/france-deploys-rafale-fighter-jets-to-romania/

and despite the paywall you should be able to read enough of this Nov 2022 to get some idea of the armies intent..

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/11/04/france-boosts-its-military-presence-in-romania-deploys-750-soldiers_6003020_4.html

Macrons speech in English : x.com/vtchakarova/status/1768390964727472315?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ The Guardian: EU to propose funneling billions in profits https://kyivindependent.com/the-guardian-eu-to-propose-funneling-billions-in-profits-generated-by-russian-assets-to-ukraine/ generated by Russian assets to Ukraine.
The European Commission may soon propose a plan to confiscate 27 billion euros ($29 billion) in profits generated by frozen Russian assets and transfer them to Ukraine, The Guardian reported on March 14, citing its sources.

⚡️ Macron: Russia's war against Ukraine 'existential' for France, Europe. https://kyivindependent.com/macron-western-troops-in-ukraine-currently-not-needed-but-all-options-possible/
French President Emmanuel Macron called Russia's war against Ukraine "existential" for France and Europe and warned that Moscow's victory would "reduce Europe's credibility to zero."

⚡️Syrskyi: Russia trying to break through in Avdiivka direction, https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-russia-trying-to-break-through-in-avdiivka-direction-ukraine-facing-intense-artillery-fire/ Ukraine facing ‘intense artillery fire.’

⚡️ Military: Russian troops intensify attacks https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-troops-begin-to-intensify-assault-attempts-in-zaporizhzhia-and-donetsk-directions/ in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk sectors.

Russia claims https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-to-repel-attack-on-kursk-belgorod-oblasts-amid-reports-on-anti-kremlin-militia-operation/ fighting in Kursk, Belgorod oblasts amid ongoing anti-Kremlin militia raid.
The Russian National Guard claimed it was repelling an attack near the village of Tyotkino in Russia's Kursk Oblast allegedly carried out by “sabotage groups” on March 14.

After months of delays, 100 Bulgarian armored personnel carriers are on their way to Ukraine by rail, Bulgaria's Defense Minister Todor Tagarev confirmed on March 14. https://kyivindependent.com/bulgaria-confirms-apc-ukraine/

House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson addressed Republican senators at their annual retreat on March 13, where he floated the idea that the long-obstructed Ukraine aid package could be made into a loan or lend-lease program for the benefit of U.S. taxpayers, the Hill reported on March 14. https://kyivindependent.com/the-hill-johnson-signals-shift-on-ukraine/

⚡️ Sweden pledges $33 million https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-pledges-almost-33-million-to-czech-ammunition-initiative/ to Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine.

⚡️ Rheinmetall plans to open at least 4 plants in Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/rheinmetall-arms-company-plans-to-open-at-least-4-plants-in-ukraine/
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall plans to set up at least four factories in Ukraine to produce artillery shells, military vehicles, gunpowder, and anti-aircraft weapons, the AFP reported on March 14.

Ukraine has successfully targeted yet another Russian oil refinery, this time in the country’s Kaluga region, southwest of Moscow, in the early hours of March 15, a source in Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), confirmed to the Kyiv Independent. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-confirms-ukrainian-drone-strike-on-oil-refinery-in-russias-kaluga-region/

Russia is believed to have jammed the satellite signal of a Royal Air Force aircraft used to transport U.K. Defence Minister Grant Shapps, a government source and journalists travelling with Shapps told Reuters on March 14. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-russia-believed-to-have-jammed-signal-on-plane-carrying-uk-defense-minister/

⚡️Air Force: Patriot air defense system operates https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-patriot-air-defense-system-operates-in-frontline-ukraines-sectors/ near front line.
Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said the military applies "all available tools" to counter Russian aircraft.
His statement came after Forbes reported on March 9 that Russia had allegedly destroyed two Patriot launchers near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. [Ukraine have carefully not commented on this, so it could well be true unfortunately]

⚡️Russian reconnaissance troops forced to retreat after failed attempt to cross Dnipro, Ukraine says.
According to the Southern Operational Command, a boat carrying Moscow’s forces attempted to land on the western bank near the Antonivskyi Bridge. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-reconnaissance-troops-forced-to-retreat-after-failed-attempt-to-cross-dnipro-ukraine-says/

⚡️Yermak: Ukrainian, Hungarian officials to meet next week. https://kyivindependent.com/yermak-hungary/

⚡️ Zelensky calls Scholz https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-discusses-further-ukrainian-german-cooperation-with-sholz-by-telephone/ discusses further Ukrainian-German cooperation.

⚡️International journalist federations call for probe into detention (https://kyivindependent.com/journalist-federations-urge-poland-to-investigate-deliberate-obstruction-after-two-instances-of-ukrainian-journalists-being-detained/ of Ukrainian journalists in Poland.

⚡️ Russia bans entry https://kyivindependent.com/russia-bans-entry-to-over-200-u-s-leaders-policy-makers/ to over 200 US policy makers, business leaders, journalists.

Eight hundred Russian citizens are at risk of being deported from Latvia because they have not yet applied for permanent or temporary residence. https://kyivindependent.com/hundreds-of-russian-nationals-face-deportation-by-latvian-authorities/

The investigative outlet Bihus.Info reported that Kyiv Metro Director Viktor Braginskyi appears to have embezzled funds and committed multiple violations in his asset declarations. https://kyivindependent.com/klitschko-to-fire-kyiv-metro-director-after-bihus-info-investigation/

⚡️Water slowly returning https://kyivindependent.com/water-slowly-returning-to-kakhovka-reservoir-after-spring-snow-melting/ to Kakhovka Reservoir after spring snowmelt.

⚡️ Bundestag votes against Taurus https://kyivindependent.com/bundestag-votes-against-taurus-missiles-for-ukraine-for-third-time-in-2024/ missiles for Ukraine for third time in 2024.

⚡️Prosecutors: Russia has launched around 50 North Korean missiles https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-office-russia-launched-around-50-north-korean-missiles-at-ukraine/ at Ukraine.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAR 15, 2024
■ Overview now shows strike ratios (see subpages for actual strikes)
■ Ratios are currently at a high level for both air & artillery strikes
■ Relatively few casualties & equipment losses reported today
■ Combat engagements slightly above 7-day average

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Two-thirds of NATO citizens believe that their governments should continue to support Ukraine, — NATO Secretary General following the poll.

Both the Ukrainian side and Brussels are working to ensure that the official opening of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU takes place no later than the end of June, when Belgium's presidency of the EU Council ends and Hungary's six-month presidency begins — EuroPravda.

🇱🇹The Seimas of Lithuania adopted a resolution calling for a ban on the import of Russian and Belarusian grain crops at the European level.

🇫🇷 Macron, in response to Putin's new threats regarding Russia's readiness for nuclear war, reminded that France is a "nuclear power" and it is inappropriate to threaten when "you have nuclear weapons"

Dmitry Medvedev proposed the so-called "Russian formula for peace," which envisages Ukraine's surrender, "payment of all compensation to Russia," and "adoption of an act on the reunification of the territories of the former "Ukraine" with the Russian Federation."
The deputy head of the Russian Security Council also insists that Western countries recognize "the Kyiv political regime as Nazi and carry out "forced denazification of all authorities" under UN supervision.

The "20 Days in Mariupol" awarding will be returned to the international TV version of the Oscars

❗️ One hundred dead Ukrainian soldiers were returned to Ukraine, their bodies will be handed over to their relatives for burial after identification, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported.

Our soldiers get to their positions mostly at night or at dusk, because it is dangerous to move around during daylight hours. And in the morning, instead of an alarm clock, the occupiers are getting hit by 120-mm mines. This is the daily routine of mortar operators.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Three people detained in Finland on suspicion of laundering funds misappropriated for the purchase of bulletproof vests for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the amount of EUR 5.7 million – National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine
"Among the detainees is a representative of a private company that failed to deliver 50% of the purchased and fully paid for bulletproof vests to the Ministry of Defense. The detainees spent part of these funds on the purchase of luxury cars and real estate." [Personally I'd like to tie people like this up and deliver them to the front line under Russian fire]

Andriy Yusov, a representative of the DIU, said that the Russian authorities do not allow residents of Belgorod and Kursk oblasts to evacuate and use them as human shields
According to him, a number of intercepts between Russian security forces and the local population indicate that transportation hubs are surrounded and checkpoints are set up.
The authorities also threaten people with both fines and dismissal from their jobs.
Today, the Freedom of Russia Legion, the RVC, and the Siberian Battalion announced a "limited military operation" and called on residents of the border area to evacuate.

❗️Russian troops launch a missile attack on Odesa
There are casualties, the head of the Regional Military Administration said. All relevant services are working at the scene. The data is being clarified.

🇱🇹Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda: Just as Czechoslovakia did not satisfy Hitler, Ukraine would not satisfy Putin

On the night of March 15, an "unknown drone" attacked the petrochemical enterprise "Pervyi Zavod" in the Kaluga oblast of Russia https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19100

Russia has hit Odesa this morning. I wonder if this is some kind of signal to Macron as he's mentioned Odesa explicitly. Probably over reading it. It's all so bloody awful

14 dead and 46 injured so far in Odesa.