Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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I'm well. We had a family crisis (mental health) which took all my energy. I'm so grateful for being in Sweden and having proper, immediate support for someone in crisis. Fearing for someone you love is very frightening.

But being me, that wasn't enough. So I decided to top it off by throwing myself down some stairs, completely shattering my shoulder in the process. I finally got out of hospital this week and am off my face on morphine. So don't pay too much attention to any nonsense I write.

Oh goodness @BringBackCoffeeCreams what an awful time! I sincerely hope your loved one is starting to recover - mental health crises are awful for everyone.

Will your shoulder be able to heal up fully? that sounds absolutely incapacitating. And painful.

I like the way you say all that but started off your message "I'm well" :D

Oh my goodness @BringBackCoffeeCreams what a time you’ve had of it! Hopefully you and your relative are on the mend ❤️

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-12-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The All-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion conducted a limited cross-border incursion into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the morning of March 12.
• The New York Times (NYT) reported that Russian and Ukrainian forces have differential advantages and disadvantages in their electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.
• US Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) 2024 Annual Threat Assessment reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin “probably believes” that Russian forces have blunted Ukrainian efforts to retake significant territory and that US and Western support to Ukraine is “finite.”
• US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced an emergency military aid package valued at $300 million for Ukraine on March 12.
• Lithuanian and French authorities are expected to meet in Paris in the coming days to discuss accelerating support for Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues to assert its right, contrary to international law, to enforce Russian federal law on officials of NATO members and former Soviet states for actions taken within the territory of their own countries where Russian courts have no jurisdiction, effectively denying the sovereignty of those states.
• The Kremlin recently implemented a series of personnel changes in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Rosgvardia, and the Russian military command.
• Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia would leave the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if the CSTO fails to meet certain Armenian expectations, as Armenia continues to distance itself from Russian security relations.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 12.
• The Kremlin is reportedly considering raising taxes, likely as part of efforts to increase federal budget revenues to fund its war in Ukraine.
• Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko continues to pursue industrial projects in occupied Ukraine.

[Waiting for UK Min of Def update]

Wow. Recording of macron's conversation with putin after the invasion began: x.com/spooked75/status/1767787253831495773?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

Found you all again!
I waved my sister off on her military ops posting yesterday. Whilst it's happening in an EU country, she's very aware that something could kick off with Russia and its easy for things to spiral out of control.

I was nodding at the Fench remarks for an EU wide force. It's simply necessary if we want to hold our own against Russia or one of the superpowers like China, using standardised systems, weapons and ammo. Europe can support Ukraine and outproduce Russia in the medium to long term if the will is there.

I have quite a lot of respect for Macron after that, he challenged Putin far more than I had appreciated.

I notice Putin is jumping up and down again reminding us of his tiny penis and nuclear weapons 😑Putin says he’s ready to use nuclear weapons if Russian state at stake, but ‘there has never been such a need’ | CNN

The bit at the end where he's like "yeah thanks Emmanuel but I'm at the gym right now and then I'm going to play ice hockey so I'll have to get back to you" 😳

It's all mind games though, he's not at the gym he's probably hiding in some bunker under the Kremlin but he wanted to toy with Macron and disarm him.

Something going on with the freedom of Russia legion apparently pushing into Russia. No real news yet thoigh

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia claims it has taken control https://kyivindependent.com/russian-defense-ministry-says-its-forces-take-control-of-donetsk-oblast-village-nevelske/ of Nevelske in Donetsk Oblast

⚡️Russia claims killing 234 fighters https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-killing-234-fighters-while-thwarting-incursion-from-ukraine/ while thwarting incursion from Ukraine.

The Czech-led initiative to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition received "non-binding commitments" for a further 200,000 shells, in addition to the confirmed purchase of 300,000 rounds. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-pm-czech-led-initiative-may-secure-200-000-more-artillery-shells/

Armenia will leave the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if the military alliance fails to address Armenia's collective security concerns, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said at a press conference on March 12. https://kyivindependent.com/armenia-threatens-to-leave-russian-led-csto/

⚡️Denmark announces new military aid package https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-announces-new-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-worth-336-million/ for Ukraine worth $336 million. The newest package contains Caesar self-propelled artillery systems, self-propelled 120-mm mortars, and associated ammunition. The funds will also be used as part of the Czech-led initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine.

⚡️ US House Democrats start gathering signatures to force vote on Ukraine aid. kyivindependent.com/us-house-democrats-starts-gathering-signatures-to-bypass-speaker-on-ukraine-aid/

⚡️The U.S. pledged a defense aid package for Ukraine worth around $300 million, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said at a press conference on March 12. It was made possible thanks to unanticipated cost savings in contracts that the Pentagon negotiated to replace equipment already sent to Ukraine through previous drawdowns. https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-300-million-defense-aid-package-for-ukraine/

Ukraine and the EU signed an agreement on March 12 on transitional financing of 6 billion euros ($6.5 billion) for Kyiv as part of the bloc's long-term 50 billion euro ($55 billion) support plan, the Ukrainian Finance Ministry announced https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-to-receive-6-5-billion-in-eu-transitional-financing-under-ukraine-facility/

EU countries are close to a deal to add 5 billion euros ($5.5 billion) to a fund used to provide military assistance to Ukraine, the Financial Times reported on March 12, citing four unnamed officials briefed on the discussions. https://kyivindependent.com/ft-eu-nears-agreement-on-5-5-billion-defense-aid-package-for-ukraine/

⚡️UNICEF grant to provide https://kyivindependent.com/unicef-grant-to-provide-18-million-in-education-funding/ $18 million in education funding.

⚡️ Poll: Vast majority of Ukrainians against https://kyivindependent.com/poll-majority-of-ukrainians-against-use-of-russian-in-official-settings/ Russian as official or state language.

⚡️ Navalny's ex-chief of staff reportedly attacked near his home in Lithuania. https://kyivindependent.com/navalnys-former-chief-of-staff-reportedly-attacked-near-his-home-in-lithuania/

⚡️ https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-votes-to-criminalize-circumvention-of-eu-sanctions/ European Parliament votes to criminalize circumvention of EU sanctions.

⚡️European Commission proposes https://kyivindependent.com/european-commission-proposes-draft-framework-for-ukraines-eu-accession-talks/ draft framework for Ukraine's EU accession talks

⚡️ Russia summons Swiss ambassador over motions to funnel frozen Russian assetshttps://kyivindependent.com/russia-summons-swiss-ambassador-over-motions-to-funnel-frozen-russian-assets-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine. The Swiss legislature voted on March 7 to approve three measures that would open the door for the future confiscation of Russian state assets frozen in Switzerland and redirect them to Ukraine's reconstruction.

⚡️Minister: Ukraine to mass-produce robots https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-produce-robots-minimize-human-involvement/ to 'minimize human involvement on battlefield.'
Ukraine plans to mass-produce mobile robots capable of mining, demining, operating attack drones, evacuating wounded soldiers, and transporting ammunition, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced on March 12.

A large fire broke out near a thermal power plant in Saint Petersburg, Russian media reported on March 12. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-fire-reported-in-st-petersburg-near-power-plant/

⚡️Fire reported https://kyivindependent.com/fire-reported-at-oil-refinery-in-russias-ryazan-oblast/ at oil refinery in Russia's Ryazan Oblast.

A Ukrainian drone hit the Russian city of Belgorod's administration building on March 12, injuring two people, Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-governor-claims-drone-hit-belgorod-administration-building/

⚡️Governor: At least 2 years required to de-mine https://kyivindependent.com/governor-at-least-2-years-required-to-de-mine-ukrainian-controlled-territory-in-kherson-oblast/ Ukrainian-controlled territory in Kherson Oblast

⚡️ UPDATED: Russian missile attack on Kryvyi Rih kills 4, injures 44 including 12 children.https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-kryvyi-rih-kills-2-injuries-reported/

⚡️Russian media: Russian Il-76 military transport plane crashes https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-russian-il-76-military-transport-plane-crashes-in-central-russia/ in central Russia. The 112 Telegram channel claimed that all eight crew members and seven passengers died in the crash.

⚡️ FT: Ukraine may get 3 billion euros from frozen Russian assets https://kyivindependent.com/ft-ukraine-may-receive-first-tranche-of-frozen-russian-assets-in-summer/ in summer.

The Russian Foreign Ministry announced on March 12 that it was banning the entry of 367 citizens of the Baltic countries into Russia, including Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-bans-the-entry-of-2-baltic-pms-other-top-officials/

⚡️ SBU uncovers pro-Russian disinformation group https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-uncovers-russian-spy-networked-connected-to-moscow-linked-ukrainian-church/ connected to Moscow-linked Ukrainian church

⚡️Another 47 Ukrainians evacuated https://kyivindependent.com/another-47-ukrainians-evacuated-from-gaza/ from Gaza.

Hungary hosted the head of Russia's state nuclear energy company Rosatom, Alexey Likhachev, on March 12, the day of the 25th anniversary of Budapest's accession to NATO. https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-hosts-rosatom-head-on-25th-anniversary-of-nato-accession/

⚡️EU removes sanctions against Yandex co-founder Volozh. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-removes-sanctions-against-yandex-co-founder-volozh/

⚡️ Vatican says Russia should take first steps toward negotiations with Ukraine.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAR 13, 2024
■ Strikes slightly above average & more combat engagements
■ Casualties up between days & above 7-day average
■ Landbased equipment losses also up but below average
■ Weekly vehicle losses stay at a record level

Here's a bit more about the small military aid package going to Ukraine.

U.S. Sending $300 Million in Ammunition, Weapons to Ukraine - The latest package will include more ATACMS missiles

I was pleased to see that the Pentagon is now open to sending the long-range version of the ATACMS because they are receiving deliveries of its replacement weapon, the Precision Strike Missile.

Are we any closer to having the wider Ukraine/Israel bill brought to the House for voting? It really seems like if it can actually get to the floor for voting it would pass. It look to me like it's that damned Speaker Mike J that's the blocker. Am I right this is at least partly because of the ability of the small MAGA cohort to bring him down should their supreme leader Trump ask it of them?

There seem to be some rumours of an impending stock market crash too which is the last thing we bloody need! Lots of wealthy individuals selling shares in various companies and industries. Wonder what they know that we don't, if anything.

There's a move afoot to force a vote on the bill, but there's still a lot of horse trading going on to get it to the floor.

House Democrats Try to Bypass Speaker Johnson to Force Vote on Ukraine Aid - Discharge petition would need to get support of majority of Republican-controlled chamber

As the Speaker of the House, Johnson decides if the bill gets a vote, hence the discharge petition to bypass him. And yes, he's still afraid of getting the boot. He may actually be supporting the discharge petition because it would allow him to avoid responsibility for the bill coming to the floor.

Really? I follow the stock market fairly closely and have been investing in stocks for decades, and I haven't heard anything about an imminent market correction.

My best advice for investors in the UK is to hold a good allocation in American stocks, which tend to outperform in the long run. I saw this yesterday.

The dominance of the US economy and the stock market in 4 charts

Vanguard sells a tracker fund in the UK that invests in the Standard and Poors index of the 500 largest publicly held US companies. It's an easy and inexpensive way to get exposure to a diversified portfolio of American companies.

S&P 500 UCITS ETF

They also have a fund that tracks the entire US stock market, including the smaller public companies.

U.S. Equity Index Fund

Seems to just be in the rags at the moment and on Twitter so hopefully just a load of bullshit 😂

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Putin has warned the West that Russia is technically ready for nuclear war and that if the US sends troops to Ukraine, Moscow will consider it a "significant escalation" [here we go yet again!]

Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron, and Donald Tusk are set to meet in Berlin to address differences over support for Ukraine, according to Politico.

Fighters of the "Liberty of Russia" legion, "Russian Volunteer Corps" and "Siberian Battalion" remain in the Kursk and Belgorod regions of Russia and announce a "hot night", volunteer of the legion Alexei Baranovskyi "Lyutyk" reported on Ukrainian Pravda
Also, according to him, the legion's strikes destroyed several units of Russian armored vehicles. The fighter also announced the Legion's involvement in drone strikes on Belgorod.

🇪🇺The European Commission has prepared a negotiation framework for Ukraine and Moldova's EU accession. It will now be discussed among EU member states.

Ammunition purchased outside the European Union, at the behest of the Czech Republic, could potentially reach Ukraine as early as June, according to Tomáš Pojar, advisor to the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic on national security.

The European Commission aims to expedite the transfer of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, prioritizing the purchase of weapons over post-war reconstruction, according to a report by the Financial Times citing an unpublished draft decision.
If approved soon, the first tranche could be disbursed as early as July, with a total allocation of 2-3 billion euros expected this year and up to 20 billion euros by 2027.
Under the proposed plan, 97% of the net profits from frozen Russian assets in the Euroclear investment fund would be appropriated to the EU budget. These funds would then be disbursed quarterly or biannually and utilized for the benefit of Ukraine through various arrangements.
Notably, the EU plan will not apply retroactively, and approximately €4 billion of already accumulated profits will remain with Euroclear. These funds will primarily cover legal costs resulting from legal disputes with Russia, which has inundated the fund with claims.

The European Union is unlikely to be able to transfer revenues from Russian assets amounting to 5.2 billion euros to Ukraine until the conclusion of the war, reports Reuters.

The Prosecutor General of Switzerland has opened the first criminal investigation into possible violations of sanctions against Russia by an unnamed company, — the Financial Times.
This was the first sign that Bern was ready to prosecute groups of individuals for doing business with Moscow.

The French Parliament supported the security agreement with Ukraine

The Wall Street Journal reports that the United States is prepared to offer Ukraine ATACMS missiles with an extended range.
According to U.S. officials, Ukraine has persistently requested that the Pentagon supply ATACMS missiles, which boast a range exceeding 180 miles (about 290 km), thus bolstering Ukraine's capability to target Russian forces in Crimea.
"In the past, Pentagon officials have maintained that the U.S. military should reserve all its long-range ATACMS missiles for its own use. However, the Pentagon is now receptive to providing longer-range MANPADS, owing to advancements in acquiring the latest Precision Strike systems. @MissConductUS This marks significant progress toward furnishing long-range missiles, although officials refrained from confirming whether President Biden would authorize their deployment," stated the article.

⚡️The Russian Federation officially confirmed the fall of Il-76 and declared 15 dead
They added that the cause of the crash is that a bird got into the engine

Yesterday, the first car with Russian registration numbers was detained in Lithuania, DELFI reports

Athletes from the Ukrainian parabiathlon team secured the top spot in the medal tally of the 2024 World Championship. The team amassed a total of 20 awards: 8 gold, 7 silver, and 5 bronze medals, as reported by the Ministry of Youth and Sports of Ukraine.
The tournament was held in Prince George, Canada. The United States secured second place with 8 awards in the medal count, while Canada claimed third place with 7 medals.

Re the latest nuclear threats this is a less hysterical translation than some of the stuff that's been used online: x.com/dmitryopines/status/1767919711461761358?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

The biggest thing I'm watching atm is the numbers on the Discharge Petition.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇨🇳 China is far ahead of the United States and Russia in the creation and development of hypersonic weapons.
According to the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) https://www.golosameriki.com/a/pentagon-says/7525491.html** China has the largest arsenal of hypersonic weapons capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The most effective weapon is the DF-17 missile, which was adopted in 2020. It is capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 1,600-1,800 kilometers and reaches a speed of Mach 8 to 10.

⚡️⚡️The Legion "Freedom of Russia" said yesterday that the village of Tetkino is completely under its control and the Russian army is fleeing https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19015
"We are spending the night in our native land," the Freedom of Russia Legion reported in the morning
The soldiers added that they are holding their positions and advancing.
They also posted a video of the destruction of an enemy control center.

Russian volunteers from the Freedom of Russia Legion, the RVC, and the Siberian Battalion announced strikes on Russian military positions in Belgorod and Kursk and called on local residents to evacuate.

🇷🇴 Romanian President Klaus Iohannis will run https://x.com/klausiohannis/status/1767589774796198121?s=46&t=hmPdh3epcvbnoUN2TQsSDw** for NATO Secretary General
Iohannis says that the Alliance needs a renewed perspective on its mission, and that his experience will be useful in this regard. He also believes that Eastern Europe has a valuable contribution to make to the discussions and decisions made in the Alliance.
▪️In October 2024, Jens Stoltenberg is to step down as NATO Secretary General, a position he has held since 2014.

🇸🇰In Slovakia, thousands of people protested against the government and in support of Ukraine
Critics of Prime Minister Robert Fico and his government are concerned about the harsh criticism of military aid to Ukraine and the desire to restore ties with Russia.
The protest began with an air raid alert. "People in Ukraine hear this every day," said protest organizer Michal Hvorecký. The organizers estimated the number of participants at five thousand.

🇺🇦 Ukraine's Defense Ministry has released a list of weapons from a new $300 million US aid package.
Ukraine will receive:
◾️Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
◾️additional ammunition for the HIMARS MLRS;
◾️155-mm artillery shells;
◾️105-mm artillery shells;
◾️AT-4 anti-tank grenade launchers;
◾️additional ammunition for small arms;
◾️ammunition for exploding obstacles;
◾️spare parts and other auxiliary equipment.

To date, 1,000 air-raid warnings have been issued in Kyiv since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion

Ducks, I'm afraid the United24 has lost something in the translation.

"In the past, Pentagon officials have maintained that the U.S. military should reserve all its long-range ATACMS missiles for its own use. However, the Pentagon is now receptive to providing longer-range MANPADS, owing to advancements in acquiring the latest Precision Strike systems.

MANPADS are man-portable air defense systems, like the Stinger, and they are unrelated to long-range surface-to-surface missiles like the ATACMS or the PSM.

I don't think the Pentagon would have mentioned its openness to providing the long-range ATACMS if it was a political nonstarter.

If I'm honest, I think we need to start raising the stakes for Russia by escalating the types of weapons we provide Ukraine. I think that's what Macron was trying to do when he said that we shouldn't rule out boots on the ground. While it pains me to say it, Trump is the only one who has said that he's open to greatly increasing aid to Ukraine as a way of putting pressure on Ukraine. It would require the funding issue to be resolved, but giving the Ukrainians the long-range ATACMS would allow them to start hammering Russian military targets in Crimea and the Kerch bridge, which would be a disaster for Putin.

Bloody hell, all going on there! Hope you recover quickly and your family member as well.

https://www.politico.eu/article/warsaw-e30-million-bomb-shelters-mayor-rafal-trzaskowski-poland-vladimir-putin-war-ukraine/

I wish the UK would consider its protective infrastructure, recognising of course Poland is much closer geographically to the current front lines.