Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Apologies if this was posted earlier - an interesting look at Russia's war economy. Whilst everyone is aware of the immense damage being done to Ukraine, fewer people note the way it has altered Russia. FWIW, I think the writer exaggerates the risks of social unrest and collapse and I don't think Russia will bother to rebuild Ukraine either, if they win. They will just loot what they can and ignore the rest.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2#:~:text=Russia's%20economy%20is%20completely%20dominated,according%20to%20one%20European%20economist.

Alongside the above article is this one about Russia's oil industry from 11th April. I don't think Putin's pride and political stance will allow him to withdraw, nor will outside pressure (for example, from a lukewarm China). That leaves us with internal pressure, such as a coup, financial trouble, or a sudden death.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/04/11/ukrainian-drone-strikes-are-hurting-russias-oil-industry

I keep seeing people draw parallels between the 8-year war that happened with Iran and Iraq and this one, with Russia and Ukraine. Given the conflict intensity on both sides, that feels optimistic.

Sorry to wind the clock back a few days but the following article by Andrew Rawnsley in today's Observer might be of interest:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/28/keir-starmer-frank-conversation-voters-about-price-of-security-andrew-rawnsley

good article @notimagain. The comments section is worrying though. So many people not understanding the threat landscape. And so many not having a basic understanding of how our commitment to NATO works and what that means for the UK if the war spreads. No wonder we have a fight on our hands getting politicians to do the right thing on defence

Yes, many of the comments were odd…some of it may have been down to the die hard old style Guardian/Observer readers who tend to see everything as a plot by the capitalistic military/industrial complex, and of course there are those who simply don’t want to accept just maybe spending on the NHS/benefits might have to take a back seat for a while in order to fund countermeasures to an existential threat.

OTOH I dared peep at an article yesterday in the good old right of centre Mail on Sunday re Ukraine and the comments there were equally odd….it was almost as if Moscow had their influencers working overtime yesterday filling up the comment sections of various on-line publications.

Absolutely. They have their fingers everywhere.

My gloves are off now and I'm going to be banging the drum to every body I speak to in the hope they will get behind it, email MPs etc. I often look at some of the school mums when I'm at class parties etc and wonder if they are thinking about this. As they look much calmer and saner than me, I guess not. But the public at large need to wake up.

On that note, I wrote to my local MP a few weeks ago (Tory unfortunately) and have had no response whatsoever.

Hard choices do have to be made, as they do in the US. Strong economic growth makes those choices relatively easier for us because it leads to rising tax receipts, lower unemployment, etc.

Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's

Low or no growth in labor productivity is also a big part of the problem.

What explains the UK’s productivity problem?

Unless you're in a dictatorship like Russia, you can't simply force austerity on people to fund your military. You have to have political consensus to do so and the strong, resilient economy to support it.

Prior to WWII, what worried the Japanese military about bringing the US into the war wasn't the US military; it was our industrial capacity and large skilled workforce.

In addition to slicing the budget pie differently, British politicians would do well to focus on making the pie bigger.

@blueshoes not sure if you're doing the ISW today ? :) Ill pop it in, but leave it to you tomorrow?

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-28-2024

Key Takeaways Thread:

• Recent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka, although these withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains. Russian forces remain unlikely to achieve a deeper operationally significant penetration in the area in the near term.
• The continued Russian stabilization of their salient northwest of Avdiivka presents the Russian command with a choice of continuing to push west towards its reported operational objective in Pokrovsk or trying to drive northwards to conduct possible complementary offensive operations with the Russian effort around Chasiv Yar.
• Syrskyi also noted that the threat of a possible future Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv City is causing Ukraine to allocate additional forces and equipment to defending the city, although ISW continues to assess that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to seize the city.
• The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade denied a recent report that Ukrainian forces had pulled US-provided M1A1 Abrams tanks from the frontline.
• Recent Russian efforts to increase control over migrants in and entering Russia following the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack appear to be straining relations between Russia and Tajikistan.
• Russian authorities arrested several Russian journalists working for Western publications in Russia within the past several days, likely as part of an ongoing effort to limit Western and independent Russian media’s ability to reliably report on Russia.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove.
• The United Kingdom’s (UK) Minister of State for the Armed Forces, Leo Docherty, stated on April 27 that the UK assesses that Russian forces have suffered 450,000 killed and wounded personnel since the start of the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Syrskyi: Ukrainian forces retreat from https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-ukrainian-forces-retreat-to-west-from-berdychi-semenivka-novomykhailivka-in-donetsk-oblast/ 3 villages in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️ Reuters: Chinese companies go 'underground' on Russia payments.
Major Chinese banks are limiting payments for transactions with Russia, fearing U.S. sanctions, Reuters reported on April 29, citing undisclosed trading and banking sources.
"Transactions between China and Russia will increasingly go through underground channels. But these methods carry significant risks," said the head of a trade body in a southeastern province that represents Chinese businesses with Russian interests. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-chinese-companies-go-underground-on-russia-payments/

⚡️ FT: Western banks paid 4 times more https://kyivindependent.com/financial-times/ taxes to Russia in 2023 than before all-out war.
The largest Western banks that continue to operate in Russia have paid 800 million euros ($857 million) in taxes to its budget in 2023, which is four times more than before Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Financial Times (FT) reported on April 29, citing its analysis.

⚡️ Military: Ukraine regaining control over Nestryha Island https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-troops-to-face-difficulties-after-ukraine-regained-control-over-nestryha-island-in-kherson-oblast/ in Kherson Oblast complicates Russian advances.

⚡️Former UK Armed Forces minister: 'Ukraine defeat will https://kyivindependent.com/former-british-armed-forces-minister-ukraine-defeat-will-cost-trillions-to-west-in-new-cold-war/ cost trillions to West in new Cold War.'
James Heappey said that Kyiv will need more aid packages to win the battle for "security across the whole European-Atlantic region."

⚡️Lithuania's FM: Russian GPS jamming https://kyivindependent.com/ft-russian-gps-jamming-of-commercial-flights-too-dangerous-to-ignore-warn-baltic-states/ of commercial flights 'too dangerous to ignore.'
Baltic foreign ministers have warned that the suspected Russian jamming of GPS systems aboard commercial flights is "too dangerous to ignore." This comes after it was revealed that two Finnish aircraft were forced to turn around mid-journey in recent days. (@notimagain you probably know this already!)

⚡️Update: Polish blockade lifted https://kyivindependent.com/polish-protesters-hrebenne-rava-ruska-crossing/ along entire Polish-Ukrainian border, Border Guard says.

⚡️ Military intelligence: Over 18,000 Russian troops https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-over-18-000-russian-troops-of-southern-military-district-have-deserted/ of Southern Military District have deserted.
Soldiers of Russia's Southern Military District, whose units are deployed in Ukraine, are deserting their posts in increasing numbers, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said on April 29. [First Ive heard of this - wow]

⚡️ NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg arrives in Kyiv https://kyivindependent.com/jens-stoltenberg-arrives-in-kyiv-on-unannounced-visit/ in surprise visit.

⚡️DTEK: Russia has attacked Ukraine's thermal power plants nearly 180 times https://kyivindependent.com/dtek-russia-has-attacked-ukraines-thermal-power-plants-nearly-180-times-since-start-of-full-scale-invasion/ since the start of full-scale war.
Moscow has recently intensified its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, launching four large-scale attacks in March-April

⚡️ SBU, military intelligence agency chatbots https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-hur-chatbots-disappear/ disappear from Telegram.
Chatbots of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), or the Digital Transformation Ministry, which were used, for example, to gather information on Russian troops in occupied territories, have disappeared from Telegram and are unavailable as of April 29. [Telegram is heavily used in Ukraine and it's where I get info, but it's Russian-owned]

⚡️ Ukrainian government chatbots previously blocked by Telegram restored. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-government-chatbots-previously-blocked-by-telegram-restore-functioning/

⚡️ Czech police conclude Russian agents behind deadly 2014 ammunition depot blasts. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-police-says-russian-agents-behind-deadly-2014-bombing/
Russian military intelligence operatives were responsible for deadly ammunition depot explosions in Czechia in 2014, the Czech police said on April 29 following a three-year-long investigation.

Returning men of draft age to Ukraine is "ethically ambiguous" and Ukraine will thus have to "take the in initiative" in the process, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview with Polish channel TVN24 on April 27. https://kyivindependent.com/polish-fm-on-returning-military-aged-ukrainians-from-abroad-ukraine-needs-to-show-initiative/

⚡️ Ukraine appeals to Council of Europe to derogate from parts https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-appeals-to-european-council-to-partially-limit-convention-on-human-rights-and-freedoms-due-to-martial-law/ of Convention on Human Rights and Freedoms due to martial law.
Ukraine applied to the Council of Europe to suspend some of the terms of the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms due to martial law, according to a statement published on April 28.
According to Kyiv's application, the military could temporarily implement limitations on certain rights. This could include seizing property for the needs of the state or prohibiting residence changes for those who registered with the military or special registry, among other restrictions.

Two diesel locomotives have been destroyed in Russia over the past few days, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on April 28. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-reports-destroying-2-mainline-locomotives-deep-inside-russia/

⚡️ Russia detains 2 journalists on 'extremism' charges, accuses them of having worked with Navalny https://kyivindependent.com/russia-arrests-2-journalists-on-extremism-charges-accused-of-working-for-navalny/

German courts will try the first nine members of an extremist group suspected of plotting a coup to overthrow the country's democratic government, Reuters reported on April 29. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-tries-extremists-who-plotted-coup-sought-talks-with-russia/

⚡️FT: Turkey in talks with ExxonMobil to secure https://kyivindependent.com/ft-turkey-in-talks-with-exxonmobil-aims-to-reduce-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas/ LNG deal, aims to reduce reliance on Russian natural gas.
The potential agreement could provide up to 2.5 million tons of LNG annually for 10 years.

⚡️Prosecutor's Office: Over 2,500 gambling websites blocked in Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-office-over-2-500-gambling-websites-blocked-as-of-april/

The two Ukrainian men killed after being stabbed in Murnau am Staffelsee, Germany, on April 27 were soldiers on medical rehabilitation leave, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said on April 28. https://kyivindependent.com/2-ukrainians-killed-in-germany-russian-suspect-detained/

⚡️Russian attacks in Kharkiv Oblast injure 2 civilians.
⚡️Russia attacks 10 communities in Sumy Oblast.
⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine injure 7 over past day

⚡️Mediazona confirms https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-51-600-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/ identities of over 51,600 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• APR 29, 2024

■ Most engagements & casualties this year so far; 3rd highest casualties recorded ■ Equipment losses slightly above average; include two air defence systems ■ Increase in 🇷🇺 strikes affects strike ratios

@DancesWithDucks thanks a mil for covering ISW yesterday and today. Will be able to run with it tomorrow.🙏

@DancesWithDucks

Baltic foreign ministers have warned that the suspected Russian jamming of GPS systems aboard commercial flights is "too dangerous to ignore." This comes after it was revealed that two Finnish aircraft were forced to turn around mid-journey in recent days.

• *It’s more of an issue on some aircraft types than others because some aircraft are more reliant on GPS for some functions but I think generally the jamming is regarded as more of a PITA than dangerous.

There however is a bit of a problem in that some more remote and/or smaller airports only have instrument approaches and departure routings that require an input from GPS - they do that because it saves the airport having to pay to install and maintain their own ground based radio aids.

Problem then is if GPS becomes unavailable in poor weather that airport becomes unusable and inbound flights end up diverting to somewhere with more comprehensive equipment.

I wouldn’t expect GPS jamming all by itself to close somewhere like Helsinki or Stockholm, but I gather that industry wide there’s now a bit of thinking going on about future aircraft design and how much reliance can be placed on the various Sat nav systems if jamming is going to become more fashionable in the vicinity of conflicts.

SecDef Austin is hinting that Ukraine may have US permission to use ATACMS against targets outside of Ukraine. This might just be an attempt to create strategic ambiguity, or it might not.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1784755430885122231

@notimagain I assume military aircraft are protected against jamming? (you may have said before, damn my memory)

Yep, some mil systems are hardened /use encryption to make jamming more difficult.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The situation on the front deteriorated. In an attempt to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line, the enemy has concentrated its main efforts in several directions, creating a significant advantage in forces and means. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, is actively attacking along the entire front line, and in some areas he is achieving tactical success.

Reuters reports that the confiscation of $320 billion in Russian assets frozen in the West could help Ukraine fund its military needs until at least 2028.

The president of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), Thomas Bach, has stated that Russian athletes will face immediate punishment for making political statements at the Olympic Games in Paris.
Bach stressed that "neutral" Russian athletes who express political views on the sports fields, such as displaying the Z sign, a symbol of Russia's war against Ukraine, could be disqualified from participating.

Beginning November 1, Russia will begin issuing electronic summonses and impose restrictions on citizens' departure from the country.
Summonses will be registered electronically, and upon registration, the conscript will receive a notification via "state services" along with a paper summons. Within seven days of registration, the summons is considered served, triggering the automatic imposition of the associated prohibitions.
The primary restriction is a ban on leaving Russia, which takes effect immediately after the summons is deemed served. In addition, failure to report to the military commissariat within 20 days will result in additional prohibitions, including the inability to register as an individual entrepreneur, engage in real estate transactions, operate a vehicle, or obtain credit.

Ukraine is preparing a number of measures to protect F-16 fighter jets when they will be at our airfields, — Air Force spokesman Illia Yevlash.
"There are a number of developments on how to safely place F-16s in Ukraine, so that they can effectively perform tasks and protect our airspace. It is necessary to properly prepare the place of their basing. These are colossal resources, we are talking about underground warehouses, bunkers. That is why methods are being developed as to how exactly they can be placed," Yevlash explained.
He emphasized that it will be a scattered location on different types of airstrips, where it will be difficult for the Russians to detect Ukrainian planes.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Germany opposes the release of frozen assets of the Russian Federation for reconstruction and military assistance to Ukraine. The country is concerned about potential repercussions, including new lawsuits related to World War II crimes against Germany, if Russian assets are seized instead of remaining frozen.

According to Leo Dockerty, Minister for Armed Forces Affairs in the British Ministry of Defense, some 450,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded during the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, tens of thousands have deserted since the war began. The exact number of dead servicemen serving in Russian private military companies (PMCs) remains undetermined.
Dockerty provided estimates of the destruction of Russian military equipment, indicating that over 10,000 units of armored vehicles have been destroyed, abandoned, or captured by Ukraine. This includes nearly 3,000 battle tanks, 109 aircraft, 136 helicopters, 346 unmanned aerial vehicles, 23 naval vessels of all classes, and more than 1,500 artillery systems of all types.

More difficult ... Not impossible?

That's a HUGE amount of equipment lost, if Leo Dockerty's estimate is right. Specially considering it was a 3-day war.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights Thread

▪️The EU has frozen the assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for more than €200 billion. Earlier, the Financial Times wrote that the income from these assets will amount to up to €3 billion a year, or €15 billion in the period from 2023 to 2027. The amount will depend on interest rates in those years.

Kuleba: "Putin is a political animal who can sense fear. And when he does, he becomes more aggressive."

The Financial Times writes https://www.ft.com/content/cd6c28e2-d327-4c2a-a023-098ca43eacfb that according to the reports of Raiffeisen Bank International, Unicredit, ING, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, and OTP, their total profit in 2023 exceeded €3 billion, which is three times more than in 2021. At that time, the banks brought about €200 million to the Russian budget in taxes.

❗️❗️Russian occupiers launched a missile attack on Odesa. Eight people were wounded, and residential buildings and civilian infrastructure were damaged.
❗️❗️A missile attack in Odesa killed two people and a dog. A 12-year-old boy is among the victims.

I honestly wouldn’t like to say - don’t know for certain…

For context though ever since the electronic warfare game started (roughly world war two) it has tended to be a case of:

side A makes something,
side B learns how to jam it,
side A makes an improved un jammable version of the something…
Side B eventually learns how to jam that….

And around and around you go…

@DancesWithDucks

Just staying with the GPS problems in the Baltic for a moment, more info here:

”Last week, two Finnair flights had to divert back to Helsinki after GPS interference prevented them from landing at the airport in south Estonia. The approach methods currently used at Tartu Airport are based on a GPS signal.
Finnair said it will suspend its flights to Tartu for one month, during which time the aim is to build approach methods at Tartu Airport that enable a safe and smooth operation of flights without a GPS signal”…..>>…….”"Most airports use alternative approach methods, but some airports, such as Tartu, only use methods that require a GPS signal to support them. The GPS interference in Tartu forces us to suspend flights until alternative solutions have been established."

https://news.err.ee/1609328058/finnair-suspends-flights-to-tartu-for-1-month-to-seek-gps-jamming-solution

Open letter to Keir Starmer by Patrick Porter. Very good. thecritic.co.uk/dear-keir-get-real/

@notimagain seems that finding alternative approach methods is going to be vital from now on.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️The Insider: 2 Russians running GRU safe house in Greece outed as spies.
Two Russian-born Czech citizens ran a hotel in northern Greece that doubled as a safe house for an infamous unit of Russia's military intelligence agency (GRU) as it carried out bombings and poisonings across Europe, an investigation by The Insider has found https://kyivindependent.com/the-insider-2-czechs-outed-as-russian-spies-running-greek-hotel-safe-house/

⚡️German ex-army officer admits spying for Russia https://kyivindependent.com/german-ex-army-officer-admits-spying-for-russia-blames-fear-of-nuclear-war/ blames fear of nuclear war.
Identified only as Thomas H., the 54-year-old went on trial in Dusseldorf on April 29 charged with conducting espionage on behalf of Moscow and leaking state secrets.

⚡️FT: Europe 'sleep walking' into dependence on Russian fertilizer, producer says.
Europe is increasingly becoming dependent on Russian fertilizer, as it previously did with Russian energy, said Svein Tore Holsether, the chief executive of fertilizer producer Yara International, in an interview with the Financial Times (FT) published on April 30. https://kyivindependent.com/ft-europe-sleep-walking-into-dependence-on-russian-fertilizer-producer-says/

⚡️ Germany delivers Skynex air defense system, Marder vehicles, ammunition to Ukraine.
Germany has handed over 10 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, a Skynex air defense system, ammunition for Leopard 2 tanks, IRIS-T SLM air defense missiles, and other aid in its latest aid delivery to Ukraine, the German government said on April 29. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-delivers-skynex-marders/

⚡️ Bloomberg: Macron hopes to convince Xi https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-macron-to-meet-xi-aiming-to-prompt-putin-to-end-war-in-ukraine/ to sway Putin toward ending invasion of Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking to deepen his personal connections with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to contribute to ending Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on April 29, citing its sources.
The Chinese president will begin his five-day trip to France, Serbia, and Hungary on May 5, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. [seeing as the other countries he's visiting are favourable to Russia and he's not visiting Germany, this is a vain hope]

⚡️State Border Service: Over 30 draft evaders died trying to illegally cross border. https://kyivindependent.com/more-than-30-draft-evaders-died-crossing-mountain-borders/

Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates have finalized a bilateral trade agreement that lays the foundation for deepening investment and trade between the two countries, Ukraine's Economy Ministry announced on April 29. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-uae-trade-pact/

Kyiv holds 3rd round of negotiations with US https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-holds-third-round-of-negotiations-with-us-on-bilateral-security-agreement/ on bilateral security agreement.

⚡️Reuters: UN says North Korean-made missile struck https://kyivindependent.com/un-says-north-korean-missiles-struck-kharkiv-in-january/ Kharkiv in January.
Debris found after a missile strike on Kharkiv on Jan. 2 came from a North Korean Hwasong-11 series ballistic missile, according to a U.N. sanctions committee report issued on April 29 and viewed by Reuters.

⚡️FT: Naftogaz chief calls on EU to protect gas storage https://kyivindependent.com/naftogaz-chief-calls-on-eu-to-protect-gas-storage-against-russian-attacks/ against Russian attacks.

⚡️ Icelandic parliament adopts resolution on long-term support for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/iceland-adopts-resolution-on-long-term-support-for-ukraine/ The resolution aims to support the independence, sovereignty, borders, the safety of civilians, humanitarian aid, and reconstruction work in Ukraine, the statement read.

⚡️Media: Russian politician's wife planned to adopt kidnapped Ukrainian boy, abandoned him due to sickness.
The wife of Russian politician Sergey Mironov forcibly took a Ukrainian girl and boy from occupied Kherson to adopt them, but abandoned the boy after it became clear he had ill health, Ukrainian news outlet TSN reported on April 28. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-mp-wife-planned-to-adopt-ukrainian-child/

⚡️ Estonia will not send away Ukrainian men with expired passports. https://kyivindependent.com/interior-ministry-estonia-will-not-send-out-ukrainian-men-with-terminated-passports/

⚡️At least 5 dead after Russian missile strike on Odesa 32 injured.
⚡️Russian forces attack 7 communities in Sumy Oblast, damaging a school.
⚡️ Mayor: Russian attack on Kharkiv kills at least 1, injures 9
⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 7 injure at least 36 over past day.

⚡️Duchess of Edinburgh comes to Ukraine in surprise visit https://kyivindependent.com/duchess-of-edinburgh-comes-to-ukraine-in-surprise-visit/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

• APR 30, 2024

■ Engagements & casualties stay high; 8th highest daily casualties overall ■ Increased equipment losses; notable tank & APV losses ■ Fewer strikes on both sides; unfavorable strike ratios

They do already exist, have done for years, and generally work to a higher accuracy than GPS, it’s just that smaller airports prefer not to pay to install and maintain the equipment.

(I’ll get back on topic eventually I promise but one last link)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrument_landing_system

Thank you. I don't think this is off topic at all - it's a consideration that has arisen and is affecting people adversely directly due to Russia's hostile actions.