Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

1000 replies

MagicFox · 09/03/2024 10:25

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
342
DancesWithDucks · 30/04/2024 11:49

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights Thread

Ukraine is already receiving weapons that the United States previously announced as part of a renewed military assistance program, — White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre

Russia's use of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) as a training ground for FPV drone crews has been reported by intelligence sources to "Babel."
The ZNPP hosts the "Archangel" school for UAV operators, where drones are launched near the sixth reactor, the personnel training center, and the cooling pond. Since 2022, this school not only trains operators but also manufactures FPV drones.
Training bases are also located in Zaozerne village near Yevpatoria in occupied Crimea and in Melitopol. Russia utilizes Enerhodar and the ZNPP as secure sites for training crews.
Financed and supervised by the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, the school has been reportedly using the ZNPP since summer 2023 for training and "testing" FPV drone operators. [Hmm. Remember the reports of drone attacks on the training buildings of the ZNPP? kinda fits]

The small-diameter bombs (GLSDB) developed for the Ukrainian Armed Forces have proven ineffective due to the influence of Russian electronic warfare systems, according to Defense One, citing the Pentagon.
U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Supply Bill LaPlante mentioned that Ukraine may no longer be interested in the GLSDB, despite having used them until February of this year.
The GLSDB weapons faced challenges such as electromagnetic interference, defense integration, organization, training, and materials, leading to their ineffectiveness.
Jointly developed by Boeing and Saab, the GLSDB can be launched from HIMARS and M270 launchers already in Ukraine's possession. Equipped with an inertial navigation system and GPS, GLSDB unfolds its wings after launch and navigates to its target with a range of up to 150 km. However, its operational success has been compromised by Russian electronic warfare capabilities.

“Ukrainian exports from Black Sea ports have returned to pre-war levels. A total of 25 million tons of products were exported from the ports of Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk," said Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine's permanent representative to the UN.

The Moscow City Duma has proposed reintroducing corporal punishment to schools, sparking discussions among parliamentarians and social activists. The idea involves implementing an army system of punishments and rewards, including the return of corporal punishment.
Valery Dorogin, first deputy chairman of the public organization "Admirals Club," expressed support for the proposal, stating that "beating determines consciousness" and suggesting that schoolchildren learn the concept of conscience and morality through physical punishment.

A 98-year-old woman did the impossible to escape from the occupiers. Lidiia walked all day without food or water, fell several times from exhaustion, and even, as she describes it, “fell asleep some times to rest”. She relied only on two sticks and sheer determination.
Lidiia Stepanivna crossed the entire front line under enemy fire, covering about 10 kilometers. Despite falling twice, she persevered in her attempt to reach free Ukrainian territory. The courageous woman received all necessary assistance and is now in a relatively safe place.

Borys Vasiliev, Vice Rector of the Academy of the International Humanitarian University, was killed in a rocket attack in Odesa. The information was officially confirmed at the university.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 30/04/2024 12:00

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Over the past year, Russia has learned to produce new weapons faster than ever before in history.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has said (https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-conversation-with-world-economic-forum-president-borge-brende/ that Russia has significantly accelerated the production of ammunition, missiles, tanks, and armored vehicles. Moscow has managed to do this thanks to significant assistance in the form of machine tools, microelectronics, and optics, mainly from China.

🇺🇸The United States will send components for the production of drones directly to Ukraine as part of a large $6 billion aid package
This is stated in a statement https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3757794/biden-administration-announces-historic-new-security-assistance-package-for-ukr/ by the State Department without specifying details. The day before, Canada made a similar decision: the country will allocate $2 million for the production of drones by the Ukrainian defense industry.

Ukraine lost over 270 km² after US stopped providing military and financial aid in October 2023

Monobank will buy a house for 98-year-old Lidiia Stepanivna, who left partially occupied Ocheretyne on her own

Consequences of the Russian air strike on Odesa

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
blueshoes · 30/04/2024 13:39

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces secured additional marginal tactical gains northwest and southwest of Avdiivka as of April 29, but have not made significant advances in the Avdiivka direction over the last 24 hours.
  • Russian forces have the opportunity to choose among multiple tactical directions for future offensive drives near Avdiivka, but it remains unclear where they will focus their efforts in the near future.
  • Investigations by both Ukrainian news agencies and Russian opposition outlets suggest that Russia is denying the legal guardians of forcibly deported and adopted Ukrainian children the ability to repatriate these children, further undermining the Kremlin’s claims that the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children is a necessary humanitarian endeavor.
  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated during an unexpected visit to Kyiv on April 29 that Ukraine’s Western allies must provide long-term, predictable military assistance to Ukraine and signal to the Kremlin that Russia cannot “wait out” Western support for Ukraine.
  • The Kremlin is pursuing a hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states, including using GPS jamming and sabotaging military logistics in NATO members’ territory.
  • Telegram recently temporarily blocked chatbots meant to facilitate civilian reports on Russian military activity to official Ukrainian channels, including some channels run by Ukrainian security services.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
  • Ukrainian officials continue to report that Russian authorities are coercing Ukrainians in occupied Ukraine to join the Russian military.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
blueshoes · 30/04/2024 14:03

MagicFox · 30/04/2024 11:07

Open letter to Keir Starmer by Patrick Porter. Very good. thecritic.co.uk/dear-keir-get-real/

Yes, good call for clear eyed steely realism. I have always admired British pragmatism coupled with creativity and flexibility although maybe not so much the implementation.

People need to wake up to the risk of sleepwalking into an existential crisis.

MissConductUS · 30/04/2024 18:27

There are unconfirmed reports of a large-scale strike against targets in Crimea with ATACMS.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1785087704205504874

Russia claims to have shot down six of them. Of course they have.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html

We should have the target and damage assessment info by tomorrow.

There's a good background piece here, including comments by General Ben Hodges.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-crimea-atacms/32925212.html

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1785087704205504874

MissConductUS · 30/04/2024 18:48

One of the more reliable Russian milbloggers is confirming the ATACMS strikes. It looks like airfields were high on the list, likely with the cluster munition ATACMS variant.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1785287147492130833

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1785287147492130833

blueshoes · 01/05/2024 07:06

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-30-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the Avdiivka area on April 30 for the first time in several days, while Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces conducted several more attacks in the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar direction than near Avdiivka.
  • Russian forces may decide to push from their salient north of Avdiivka towards the Toretsk area to complement Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, which would likely require Russian forces to conduct a tactical pause to concentrate forces for such a drive.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a short-range MGM-140 ATACMS strike against targets in occupied Crimea on the night of April 29 to 30.
  • Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin expressed outrage over Russian authorities’ treatment of Central Asian migrants, particularly Tajik citizens, indicating that increased Russian efforts to control migrants living in and entering Russia following the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack are continuing to strain Tajik-Russian relations.
  • Former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the Georgian Dream political party Bidzina Ivanishvili reiterated a series of standard Kremlin information operations during his first public speech since announcing his return to Georgian public politics in December 2023.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and Robotyne.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on April 30 that Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov inspected a drone testing ground in an unspecified area of occupied Ukraine.
  • An investigation by Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii implicates Kremlin-appointed Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova and her sister in the deportation of special needs Ukrainian adults to Russia.
DancesWithDucks · 01/05/2024 16:09

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Zelensky: Aid delivery https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-aid-delivery-has-to-speed-up/ has to speed up for Ukraine to 'disrupt Russian plans.'

⚡️US Senate approves https://kyivindependent.com/us-senate-approves-ban-on-russian-uranium-imports/ ban on Russian uranium imports.

⚡️Israel to mothball its Patriots https://kyivindependent.com/israel-to-mothball-its-patriots-fate-of-systems-badly-need-by-ukraine-unknown/ fate of systems badly needed by Ukraine unknown.

⚡️ Politico: Russia low on fuel https://kyivindependent.com/politico-russia-low-on-fuel-after-ukrainian-strikes-on-oil-refineries/ after Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries.
The cost of diesel went up almost 10% in the past week, while gasoline's prices hit a six-month high, going up by more than 20% when compared to the start of the year, Politico wrote, citing government data.

⚡️Trump says he would only continue https://kyivindependent.com/trump-europe-equalizing/ US aid to Ukraine if Europe 'starts equalizing.'
While Washington's support to Ukraine is worth over $67 billion, European countries combined have allocated over $96 billion for military, humanitarian, and financial support since February 2022, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

⚡️ Zelensky: Ukraine will join NATO only after defeating Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-on-ukraines-membership-in-nato-allies-have-not-agreed-yet-but-we-are-working-on-it/

⚡️Stoltenberg: Ukraine's trust in NATO 'dented' by aid delays https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-ukraines-trust-in-nato-dented-by-aid-delays/
He said an overhaul of how international military aid was coordinated was required.

⚡️ G7 agrees to reduce dependency https://kyivindependent.com/g7-agrees-to-reduce-dependence/ on Russian nuclear energy supplies.

⚡️Latvia announces https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-announces-new-military-aid-package-for-ukraine/ new military aid package for Ukraine, includes air defense.

⚡️ Estonia begins to close border crossing https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-begins-to-close-border-crossing-with-russia-for-night/ with Russia for night.
Estonia started to close the Narva-1 border crossing with Russia from 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. local time, the Estonian public broadcaster ERR reported on May 1.

⚡️Poll: 74% of Ukrainians feel negatively https://kyivindependent.com/poll-74-of-ukrainians-feel-negatively-russians/ towards Russians. [The fact it's not 98% shows the depth of conflicted feeling in Ukraine]

Georgian government holds massive anti-West rally https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-dream-escalates-anti-western-rhetoric-at-tbilisi-rally-with-bussed-in-supporters/ as it aims to pass 'Russian-style' law

⚡️Georgian police arrest https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-police-arrest-63-demonstrators-amid-violent-crackdown-on-anti-government-protest/ 63 demonstrators amid violent crackdown on [counter protest] anti-government protest.

⚡️Norway to allocate https://kyivindependent.com/norway-to-allocate-over-600-million-for-ukrainian-air-defense-ammunition-needs/ over $600 million for Ukrainian air defense, ammunition.

⚡️ State Border Guard Service establishes new brigade https://kyivindependent.com/state-border-guard-service-establishes-new-brigade-timing-for-ukraines-border-guard-day/ on Ukraine's Border Guard Day.

⚡️ Ukraine's TV, radio-broadcasting body urges government not to use Telegram. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-television-and-radio-broadcasting-council-urges-government-not-to-use-telegram/
The National Television and Radio Broadcasting Council on April 30 called on Ukrainian governmental organizations and officials to stop using Telegram, the most popular messaging application in Ukraine.

⚡️ Governor: First 5 underground schools (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-first-5-underground-schools-to-be-built-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/) to be built in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

⚡️Foreign Ministry clarifies rules for men abroad applying for consular services.
The new ban on military-age Ukrainian men applying for consular services abroad is a temporary suspension and will not apply to those who have updated their military records, the Foreign Ministry said on April 30 as part of a clarification on recent changes. https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministry-clarifies-rules/

Ukraine is not planning to forcibly bring back military-aged men who are in the EU, said Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna in an interview with Deutsche Welle published on April 30. https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-pm-says-no-plan-to-forcibly-bring-back-ukrainian-men-from-eu/

⚡️ New York businessman Nikolay Grigorev pleads guilty https://kyivindependent.com/us-uncovers-scheme-to-sell-dual-use-components-to-russia/ to attempting to sell drone parts to Russia despite sanctions.

⚡️ Media: Slovakia grants temporary protection https://kyivindependent.com/media-slovakia-grants-protection-to-man-accused-of-running-pro-russian-propaganda-network/ to man accused of running pro-Russian propaganda network.
Ukrainian-Israeli citizen Artem Marchevskyi, accused by Czech authorities of running a pro-Russian propaganda network from Prague, has been granted temporary protection in neighboring Slovakia, the Czech news outlet Denik N reported on April 30, citing its undisclosed sources.

⚡️Update: Russia attacked Kharkiv with glide bombs. (https://kyivindependent.com/mayor-russian-attack-on-kharkiv-kills-1-injures-2/)

⚡️Official: Donetsk Oblast farmers' war losses exceed https://kyivindependent.com/official-donetsk-oblast-farmers-war-losses-exceed-125-million/ $125 million, not including the occupied areas.

⚡️ Governor: 3 children https://kyivindependent.com/governor-3-children-brought-back-from-russian-occupied-territories/ brought back from Russian-occupied territories.
According to Prokudin, 66 children from Kherson Oblast have been returned home from Russian-occupied territories since the beginning of the all-out war.

⚡️Russia attacks 11 communities in Sumy Oblast.
⚡️ Russian attack on village in Kharkiv Oblast kills 2, injures 6
⚡️ Russian attack on Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injures 4.

⚡️Fire breaks out at Russian oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast after drone strikes.

Couldn't find a page with the losses today, but clearly Ragnar did!

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAY 1, 2024
■ Engagements & casualties stay high; five consecutive days of >1,000 casualties
■ Surprisingly modest equipment losses; APV losses above 7-day average though
■ Decent ratio for air strikes, unfavorable for artillery strikes
■ April: mostair strikes in six months

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 01/05/2024 16:24

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Latvia has approved the provision of a new batch of military aid to Ukraine, which will include, in particular, short-range anti-aircraft guns and surveillance drones.

Thierry Frank, CEO of Eurenco, announced that France will increase production of modular powder charges for artillery to 500,000 units per year.
Currently, the main bottleneck in the production of artillery ammunition is the shortage of gunpowder. In response to growing demand from Ukraine and EU countries, the French company has received orders totaling 1 billion euros in the past six months alone.
n mid-April, Eurenco inaugurated a new production line in Bergerac that will produce up to 1,200 tons of gunpowder per year. The first batches are expected to be available in the first half of 2025.
In terms of charges, 1,200 tons of gunpowder is equivalent to more than 500,000 modular charges or 95,000 full shots (six modular charges per projectile).
In 2026, France plans to increase production to 1.2 million modular charges, or about 200,000 full rounds.

The IMF predicts that Russia's share of world GDP will fall to a historic low.
Contrary to Putin's promises, the Russian economy will grow more slowly than the world economy over the next five years and will continue to lose its share of global GDP. This is the forecast of the International Monetary Fund in the April block of macroeconomic projections.
According to the IMF, by the end of 2023 the Russian Federation will account for 2.94% of the world's production of goods and services. Every year this share will decrease and in 2029 it will reach only 2.7%. This will be the lowest in the entire modern history of the country - lower than the low point of 1998, when Russia's share in the world GDP fell to 2.83% due to the default.
As for Russia's GDP, the IMF predicts a slowdown in growth rates to 1.8% in 2025 and only 1.3% in 2029.

Since the fall of 2023, Russia has constructed new defense structures and stationed military equipment in the Tarkhankut Natural Park on the peninsula bearing the same name, as reported by Radio Svoboda.

The Secretary General of the Council of Europe has been instructed to prepare documents for consultations and draft an agreement between Ukraine and the Council of Europe on the establishment of a Special Tribunal for Russia, — Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

🇱🇻 The newly appointed head of the Foreign Ministry of Latvia, Baiba Braže, said that Ukraine received Western weapons from some partners with permission to attack Russian territory.

“I hope that cluster bombs are provided to Ukraine as quickly as possible. We have excesses that need to be destroyed. I know a way to destroy them, and that is to send them to the people of Ukraine," Congressman Joe Wilson at a hearing in the US House of Representatives.

John Kirby, the coordinator of strategic communications at the US National Security Council, stated that Kyiv is specifying its security needs in a bilateral agreement with the US.

Alexander Lukashenko said that Belarusian athletes should decide for themselves whether to participate in the Olympics under a neutral status. However, he advised those who choose to participate to "punch their opponents in the face."

Since 2022, Independence Square in Kyiv has been transformed into a powerful memorial for Ukraine's fallen heroes. By May 2022, 54 flags were planted in the square's green area.
Today, thousands stand tall, a constant reminder of the sacrifices made in the fight for freedom. https://t.me/United24media/21389 [there are thousands upon thousands ... :( ]

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine presented artificial intelligence Victoria, which will be an assistant in informing citizens about consular issues.
She is based on a real person — Ukrainian singer Rosalie Nombre. Victoria will be able to appear on television and radio during high-profile events abroad.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 01/05/2024 16:42

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Pentagon chief Austin said that he is asking countries that have Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to transfer them to Ukraine amid a shortage of air defense stocks https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/04/30/7184992/

aha, finally

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
blueshoes · 01/05/2024 16:42

UK Ministry of Defence Ukraine Update

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 01/05/2024 20:14

If the IMF predictions are right, it's interesting. Atm the GDP is getting better in Russia, but seems to be all war related. I wonder how far China will prop them up, since it's useful for them.

DancesWithDucks · 02/05/2024 09:01

This reply has been withdrawn

This message has been withdrawn at the poster's request

blueshoes · 02/05/2024 09:54

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-1-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • The Russian military is reportedly redeploying elements of the 76th and 7th airborne (VDV) divisions from Zaporizhia Oblast in the direction of eastern Ukraine, likely to reinforce and intensify ongoing offensive operations.
  • The Russian military may seek to redeploy elements of the 76th or 7th VDV division or both to eastern Ukraine to support Russia’s offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and to capitalize on the current window of vulnerability before American military aid begins reaching the frontline at scale.
  • Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast for the second time in less than a month on the night of April 30 to May 1.
  • Russian state-run news outlets appear to be amplifying anti-Western rhetoric from former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili and are negatively portraying Georgians protesting against Georgia’s “foreign agents” bill, likely in an attempt to destabilize and divide Georgia.
  • The United Nations (UN) and Western organizations continue to demonstrate how North Korea and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are directly and indirectly helping Russia’s war effort.
  • Russian insider sources speculated that the criminal investigation into Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov may also implicate another deputy defense minister, Rustam Tsalikov.
  • Bloomberg reported that four sanctioned Russian oil tankers have changed their names and are sailing under new flags.
  • Russian forces made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
  • Russian authorities continue recruiting convicted criminals to fight in Ukraine.
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/05/2024 10:48

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Economy minister: Ukraine reaches pre-war level of exports in April.
Ukraine exported more than 13 million tons of products totaling $3.3 billion in April, which is higher than volumes for February 2022 before the start of the full-scale invasion, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on May 1. https://kyivindependent.com/economy-minister-ukraine-reaches-pre-war-export-level-in-april/

Smelling weakness, Russia presses advantage in Donetsk Oblast
As Ukraine’s defenders and allies display a constellation of weaknesses, Russian forces are taking advantage and pushing forward in Donetsk Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/sensing-weakness-russians-push-up-to-cut-off-kostyantynivka/
The Russians have begun their assault of Chasiv Yar, while a complementary, flanking assault is slowly pushing up from occupied Avdiivka, in an attempt to cut the supply road from Kramatorsk to Kostiantynivka.

⚡️ Military: Russia trying to break through https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-trying-to-break-through-3/ front in 3 directions.

⚡️Russia to increase arms production, speed up weapons deliveries, Shoigu says.
Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered for an increase in weapons productions, with the goal of delivering weaponry to the front quicker, Russia's Defense Ministry shared on May 1. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-to-increase-arms-production-speed-up-weapons-delivery-shoigu-says/

⚡️Kuleba: Russia's attacks damage 50% https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-russias-attacks-damage-half-of-ukraines-infrastructure/ of Ukraine's energy system.

⚡️Far-right Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene officially launched her much-discussed plan to oust Speaker Mike Johnson on May 1, delivering on the threat she has made since the U.S. Congress passed Ukraine aid in April. https://kyivindependent.com/republican-congresswoman-greene-launches-effort-to-oust-johnson-following-passage-of-ukraine-aid/

⚡️ Duda: Polish EU presidency to focus on Ukraine's integration https://kyivindependent.com/duda-polish-eu-presidency-to-focus-on-ukraines-integration/ as one of key priorities.

The U.S. imposed new sanctions on May 1 against nearly 300 companies and individuals in Russia and third countries, including China, for aiding Moscow's war effort, the Treasury Department announced. https://kyivindependent.com/us-sanctions-russia-chinese-companies-for-war-effort-support/

⚡️Media: At least 8 injured https://kyivindependent.com/media-at-least-8-injured-in-latest-police-crackdown-on-protests-in-georgia/ in latest police crackdown on protests in Georgia.

⚡️Military Intelligence: Nepalese mercenaries desert Russian army in droves.
The Nepalese soldiers, assigned to military unit number 29328 of Russia's Armed Forces, are deserting due to heavy losses, non-payment of salaries, and commanders' abuse, "including executions for refusing to follow orders," Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said on May 1. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-5/

⚡️
Ukraine is working to limit satellite imaging of Ukrainian territory, amid concerns of intelligence leaks that would benefit Russian forces, Ukraine's Defense Ministry announced on May 1. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-working-to-limit-satellite-imaging-of-ukrainian-territory/

Polish farmers finally ended their protests at the Hrebenne-Rava-Ruska border crossing on April 29, effectively lifting a blockade that had gone on for months, damaged Polish-Ukrainian relations, and put stress on Ukraine’s exports.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-business-roundup-no-more-border-blockades-for-now/

⚡️ Military intelligence: Russia flies attack drones over occupied Zaporizhzhia plant video shows.
Russia is flying its "kamikaze" drones over the reactors of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, risking "catastrophic consequences," Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said on May 2. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-flies-attack-drones-over-occupied-zaporizhzhia-plant/

⚡️Media: Russia sets up display of captured Western military hardware in Moscow. https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-sets-up-display-of-captured-western-military-hardware-in-wwii-memorial-park/

Opinion: Russia's war may have opened Pandora's box https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-russias-war-may-have-opened-pandoras-box-for-belarus/ for Belarus. "As Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine rages on, the stability of neighboring Belarus, which has been backing Russia's aggression, appears to be fracturing," writes Sławomir Sierakowski, a senior fellow at Mercator, in this guest op-ed.

Illia Vitiuk — the former cybersecurity chief of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) who was suspended from his post following an investigation into his personal finances — was formally dismissed by a presidential decree issued on May 1. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-dismisses-sbu-cybersecurity-chief-following-media-investigation/

⚡️Governor: 2 killed, 6 injured in Russian attack on Hirnyk, Donetsk Oblast.
⚡️Update: Russia reportedly attacks postal depot in Odesa, injuring at least 14. https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russian-missile-attack-on-odesa-injures-at-least-13-people/
⚡️Russia attacks 10 communities in Sumy Oblast.
⚡️ A drone attack reportedly damaged energy infrastructure in Russia's Oryol and Kursk Oblasts, local Russian officials reported on May 1.
⚡️ Russian attacks kill 8, injure 40 in Ukraine over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • MAY 2, 2024
■ Six consecutive days of 1k+ casualties ■ Armored equipment well above 7-day avg ■ Distribution between 🇺🇦 air & artillery strikes estimated (reported today as a combined figure) ■ Oryx: 30-day ratio rises to 3.0x
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/05/2024 11:06

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

U.S. Senate passes ban on Russian uranium imports
The legislation bans imports into the U.S. 90 days after enactment, while allowing temporary waivers until January 2028.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the Russian Federation supplies nearly a quarter of the enriched uranium used to fuel 90 U.S. commercial reactors, making it the top foreign supplier.
This earns Moscow about $1 billion a year.
The Biden administration has called for a "long-term ban" on Russian imports, necessary to free up some $2.7 billion to develop the domestic uranium industry.

The USA has announced a comprehensive package of sanctions targeting Russia's military-industrial complex.
This latest round of sanctions focuses on Russia's military-industrial base, along with its chemical and biological weapons programs. It also encompasses individuals and entities in third countries that facilitate Moscow's acquisition of components for weapon and defense production.
Furthermore, the sanctions extend to major Russian importers of cotton pulp and nitrocellulose, as well as crucial components. Two suppliers of these goods from China are also included in the sanctions.
Additionally, two Russian companies involved in gas infrastructure construction, "Neftegazstroy" and "VNYPYgazdobycha," have been subjected to further US sanctions.

The Ministry of Defense of Great Britain supplied Ukraine with 50 units of 155-mm self-propelled howitzers AS-90 — the website of the government of the country.
Thus, as of this moment, Britain has transferred about two-thirds of its AS-90 fleet to Ukraine.

The US State Department has confirmed that Russia deployed prohibited chemical weapons against the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
According to the State Department, Russia utilized chlorpicrin against Ukrainian troops and employed chemical agents for quelling disturbances (riot control agents), thus violating the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

Russian forces have executed at least 15 Ukrainian soldiers as they attempted to surrender, and possibly 6 more who were surrendering or who had surrendered, since early December 2023, — Human Rights Watch.

The concert of Russian pro-invasion opera diva Anna Netrebko has been canceled in Switzerland, as reported by the Luzerner Zeitung newspaper.
Scheduled for June 1 at the Culture and Congress Center in Lucerne, the concert was called off by the venue due to pressure from cantonal authorities.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/05/2024 11:16

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukraine in talks with seven more countries for bilateral security agreements, – Zelensky
Ukraine is currently in talks with Estonia, Spain, the Czech Republic and the United States, and discussions are progressing.

At night, drones attacked six regions of Russia - explosions were heard in Oryol, Rostov, Smolensk, Bryansk, Kursk oblasts and in the Krasnodar Territory. Energy infrastructure facilities were damaged in the Oryol oblast, the local governor said.
Russian Telegram channels report that explosions were also heard near the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, though it is not known whether the refinery was damaged. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that a total of 12 drones were allegedly destroyed over Russia.

The Associated Press showed what Chasiv Yar in Donetsk oblast looks like now, where the occupiers are trying to break through
The eastern part of the city is almost completely destroyed — there is not a single surviving building. The Russians are using scorched earth tactics.
Before the invasion, the population of the city was just under 13 thousand, and now 682 people remain there. This is the data available to the head of the Chasiv Yar city military administration at the beginning of this week. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/20600 [devastation. Just devastation]

When Ukrainian warriors return from the front line, they do not forget to take the animals they have sheltered with them❤️‍🩹 https://t.me/liveukraine_media/20596 [They look so, so young]

Live: Ukraine

When Ukrainian warriors return from the front line, they do not forget to take the animals they have sheltered with them❤️‍🩹 🪐 Subscribe to Live: Ukraine

https://t.me/liveukraine_media/20596

notimagain · 02/05/2024 11:44

@DancesWithDucks

This is a bit technical, but Trent Telenko (of tyres fame - he's very good within his area, but sometimes overreraches himself outside it) recommends it…

I know TT was a bit of a “go to” analyst in the early days of all this but agree with the overreaching, he’s often well out of his depth…..

As for the techie stuff that followed, no criticism of you posting all that, it’s out there in the public domain (well hopefully) but I’ll be honest and say I wince when I see some of the stuff that’s going out on-line on various forums….

My feelings are best encapsulated by a moderator’s comment on Forces/ex-Forces forum a few days back, after they had deleted a few posts…to paraphrase what they said:

“ I know when you were serving you knew XXXXX and possibly talked about it every day to colleagues, and it may now be something that’s not classified but that’s not why I deleted “….“ point is the Russians may not have known what you know, they may not have considered the implications of what you know, so why make things easy, in short, why the hell do their analysis for them……”

Now most of what I knew from the military side of things is well time expired, but there are systems being donated, certainly some of the older ones, that once upon a time I did have a slightly more than nodding acquaintance with.

I try and stay away from offering too much analysis of those to avoid saying something stupid but some analysts and commenters seem to insist in trying to demonstrate how clever they are and I’m not convinced it’s helpful.

I’d interested if @MissConductUS has a view on this.

DancesWithDucks · 02/05/2024 14:57

Asked for it to be deleted ... as you say, why hand them the info in one neat tidy package?

notimagain · 02/05/2024 15:08

DancesWithDucks · 02/05/2024 14:57

Asked for it to be deleted ... as you say, why hand them the info in one neat tidy package?

Hi

I think given the originator has got the analysis out “in the wild” there’s no extra harm generated by it being here..

TBH I may be being overly sensitive but there have been a few goings on with some forums and even some gaming websites where people have perhaps been overly keen to analyse or in the gaming forums case try to correct inaccuracies in simulated system performance.

Often the data is actually already on the internet but sometimes it might be best to leave some stuff hidden away in the bottom of an equivalent of an internet bottom draw, rather than shouting out “oh look what I’ve found out, let me explain how this works….”

MissConductUS · 02/05/2024 15:25

I’d interested if @MissConductUS has a view on this.

I do. You must always be concerned about operational security, particularly technical weapons data, like the ATACMS cluster munition calculations above. I think the Russians would be less interested, but hopefully more annoyed, by my commentary about why they got their arses kicked in the early days of the war.😃

There's also the possibility that TTs have some fundamental flaw that's not immediately obvious or that they are intentional disinformation.

My days in the field were long ago (ODS), but as you point out, a lot of that kit, like my beloved Bradleys, are now in use in Ukraine. I'll have to be a bit more careful about what I post here.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/05/2024 19:41

Yes. There isn't a guarentee it won't happen again but I suspect there's been an enormous amount of stuff going on to try to stop it, and stop it happening again.

I wonder if how much the delays cost Ukraine can be quantified.

MagicFox · 03/05/2024 08:58

Interview with Stephen Kotkin: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-foreign-affairs-interview/id1623855270?i=1000654303556

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 03/05/2024 11:17

Commander Syrskyi has been making some difficult statements too :/

Please create an account

To comment on this thread you need to create a Mumsnet account.

This thread is not accepting new messages.