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Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

1000 replies

MagicFox · 09/03/2024 10:25

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
342
BringBackCoffeeCreams · 27/04/2024 08:29

I was watching Putin v The West on iplayer last night. It was talking about Putin's belief that Ukraine would fall in 3 days. I was really surprised that western intelligence agencies apparently thought the same. I'd always thought it was a failure of Russian intelligence not the widely held view.

notimagain · 27/04/2024 08:56

Hi,

IMHO, for what it is worth, open to correction, etc, is it all went wrong for Putin when Russian specialist units and forces couldn’t either remove President Zelensky from office in the early hours of day one or take Hostomel airfield. If either of those had happened I think it would probably have been over very quickly.

They didn’t, that meant more of a slog towards Kyiv and I don’t think anyone (on either side) appreciated how badly the mass of the Russian Army would perform when faced with determined opposition armed with modern weapons.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/intellectual-failures-behind-russias-bungled-invasion

The Intellectual Failures Behind Russia’s Bungled Invasion

It is a point of consensus among analysts that the initial phases of the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been a relative failure. Though Russia may still prevail in this conflict, the reasons for its blundering initial attempt are worth unpacking.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/intellectual-failures-behind-russias-bungled-invasion

MissConductUS · 27/04/2024 10:59

notimagain · 27/04/2024 08:56

Hi,

IMHO, for what it is worth, open to correction, etc, is it all went wrong for Putin when Russian specialist units and forces couldn’t either remove President Zelensky from office in the early hours of day one or take Hostomel airfield. If either of those had happened I think it would probably have been over very quickly.

They didn’t, that meant more of a slog towards Kyiv and I don’t think anyone (on either side) appreciated how badly the mass of the Russian Army would perform when faced with determined opposition armed with modern weapons.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/intellectual-failures-behind-russias-bungled-invasion

Taking Hostomel airfield was necessary to capture the Ukrainian political leadership. That's how they were going to place airborne troops close enough to Kyiv to avoid an all-out assault on the city. The Battle of Hostomel changed the course of the war.

The RUSI report is very good, but there is one aspect it doesn't mention. It does point out that the Russian army is very armor and artillery-centric, but omits the fact that as a result, they don't have much respect for the combat capability of infantry troops. To the Russians, the infantry's role is to stand on the rubble and shoot deal with civilians after the tanks and artillery do the actual fighting. They don't consider them as combat units the way we do.

So, when looking at the Ukrainian forces defending Kyiv, they saw a lot of infantry units that they assumed they would just brush them aside. That was a very bad assumption. I know a few of the non-commissioned officers in the California National Guard who trained the Ukrainians in anti-tank warfare, specifically fielding hunter-killer teams trained in using antitank guided missiles and now best to attack tank columns in the field. Those blokes are the Russians' worst nightmare, as they discovered.

Battle of Hostomel - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hostomel

DancesWithDucks · 27/04/2024 11:15

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Military: Russian forces trying to encircle Chasiv Yar https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-forces-trying-to-encircle-chasiv-yar/

⚡️US to allocate additional $6 billion in military aid to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-allocate-additional-6-billion-in-aid-to-provide-ukraine-with-weapons/ U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced it on April 26 after the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting, also known as the Ramstein Format.

⚡️US envoy to OSCE: Russian 'double-tap' attacks have killed at least 90 first responders since April 2022. https://kyivindependent.com/us-envoy-to-osce-russian-double-tap-attacks-have-killed-at-least-90-first-responders-since-april-2022/

⚡️ Kyiv evacuates children hospital due to attack threat. The evacuation was ordered after a Belarusian security chief made a surprise threat in a public address. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-hospitals-are-urgently-evacuated-after-to-the-threat-of-a-possible-russian-strike/

⚡️Shmyhal: Ukraine has received https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-ukraine-has-received-12-billion-in-international-aid-this-year-to-help-cover-budget-deficit/ $12 billion in international aid this year to help cover budget deficit.

⚡️Russia attacks https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-overnight-casualties-reported/ Ukraine’s energy infrastructure overnight, casualties reported.

⚡️Estonia, Denmark transfer two naval patrol boats to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-denmark-transfer-two-naval-patrol-boats-to-ukraine/

Belgium to deliver first F-16 jets to Ukraine in 2024. "In coordination with our partners in the F-16 coalition, our country will make every effort to speed up deliveries, if possible, by the end of this year," Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder said. https://kyivindependent.com/belgium-may-deliver-first-f-16-jets-to-ukraine-in-2024/

A Russian multirole helicopter Ka-32 was destroyed at the Ostafyevo airfield in Moscow overnight on April 26, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) reported https://kyivindependent.com/source-ukraine-destroys-russian-ka-32-helicopter-at-moscow-airfield/

⚡️Source: SBU hits oil refineries, military airfield in Russia's Krasnodar region. https://kyivindependent.com/source-sbu-hits-oil-refineries-military-airfield-in-russias-krasnodar-region/

⚡️Russia's Sberbank reports $4.32 billion profit, dividends to boost Kremlin war chest. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-russias-sberbank-announces-4-32bn-profit-dividends-to-boost-kremlin-war-chest/

⚡️Minister: Belgium to allocate $213 million for German-led air defense initiative. https://kyivindependent.com/minister-belgium-to-allocate-213-million-for-german-led-air-defense-initiative/

⚡️Canada to donate nearly $12 million to Ukraine's drone production, Czech ammunition initiative. https://kyivindependent.com/canada-to-donate-nearly-12-million-to-ukraines-drone-production-czech-ammunition-initiative/

⚡️Norway to allocate $13.7 million for Ukrainian 2A4 Leopard tank maintenance in Poland.
The funds will cover support and repair of the provided equipment, with technical assistance to be administered at a Polish maintenance center. https://kyivindependent.com/norway-to-allocate-13-7-million-for-ukrainian-leopard-tank-maintenance-in-poland/

⚡️Kuleba: Latvia, Ukraine to bolster drone production https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-latvia-ukraine-to-bolster-drone-production/

Madrid will provide Ukraine with Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles announced on April 26, without specifying the exact number.
The defense minister said that "a set" of Patriot anti-aircraft interceptor missiles will arrive at the logistics base in four days. https://kyivindependent.com/spain-confirms-ukraine-to-receive-patriot/

Explainer: 38 years after Chornobyl, Ukraine relies on nuclear for more than half its energy production https://kyivindependent.com/explainer-38-years-after-chornobyl-and-under-attack-ukraine-relies-on-nuclear-for-more-than-half-its-energy-production/

⚡️ Zelensky dismisses Support Forces Commander Oleksandr Yakovets after less than 2 months on the job.
Yakovets was moved to head Ukraine's State Special Transport Service. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-dismisses-support-forces-commander-appointed-in-march/

Ukrainian military intelligence carried out a massive cyberattack on April 26, targeting the online platforms of Russia's ruling United Russia party, a source in Ukraine's special services told the Kyiv Independent. https://kyivindependent.com/source-ukraines-military-intelligence-launches-cyberattack-targeting-united-russias-platforms/

⚡️UK man with alleged Wagner ties charged with spying for Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-man-with-alleged-wagner-ties-charged-with-spying-for-russia/
Twenty-year-old Dylan Earl has been charged with planning an attack against London businesses connected to Ukraine after being recruited to spy for Russia.

⚡️Update: Agriculture minister arrested on suspicion of illegally seizing land promptly released https://kyivindependent.com/court-arrests-agriculture-minister-accused-of-illegal-acquisition-of-state-owned-land/ on $1.9 million bail.

⚡️Governor: Russian shelling of Nikopol injures 2, including 9-year-old boy.
⚡️Prosecutor's Office: Number of injured in April 25 Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast rises to 13.
⚡️Update: Russia's attack on Sumy Oblast kill 2, injure 5

⚡️Russian attacks in Kharkiv Oblast injure 4.

️Ukraine retrieves bodies of 140 fallen soldiers. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-retrieves-bodies-of-140-fallen-soldiers/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • APR 27, 2024
■ Engagements down but most casualties this month ■ Equipment stays slightly below avg; 5 missiles intercepted ■ Greatly improved artillery strike ratio; most 🇺🇦 artillery strikes since the middle of the month
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 27/04/2024 11:23

Test, please ignore

⚡️Russian attacks against 4 Ukrainian regions kill 1, injure 14. (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-4-ukrainian-regions-kill-1-injure-14/)

DancesWithDucks · 27/04/2024 11:35

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The United States has pledged $6 billion for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine, as announced by the head of the American Defense Department, Lloyd Austin.
"This is the largest assistance package to date. It will include critical intercept capabilities for NASAMS and Patriot systems, increased drone resources, and other equipment. It will also provide significant quantities of artillery ammunition and surface-to-air missiles to ensure sustained support," he said."
The Department of Defense notes that it will order additional ammunition for Patriot, NASAMS and HIMARS systems, 155-mm and 152-mm artillery shells, high-explosive shells and high-precision aerial munitions for Ukraine for $6 billion.
Equipment for the integration of Western launchers, missiles and radars into Ukrainian air defense systems, anti-drone means, radar stations, anti-artillery radars, Switchblade and Puma drones, and means to support Ukrainian drone production are also specified.

Estonian intelligence: The probability of the collapse of the Ukrainian front is decreasing

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that recent cases of espionage on behalf of Russia in Alliance member states will not prevent the provision of military assistance to Ukraine.
Stoltenberg urged NATO members to remain vigilant regarding Russia's covert activities throughout the Alliance.

⚡️Germany and France approve plan to jointly develop "tank of the future"
In Paris, Lecornu and Pistorius signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) establishing an equal share in the industrial production of the MGSC ("Main Combat System of Ground-Based Combat") tank.
The MGSC will consist of a system of manned and unmanned vehicles and will use artificial intelligence and laser technology. The memorandum identifies the manufacturers who will be responsible for key components of the tank systems, including platforms, turrets and guns

In Kyiv, due to the threat of a Russian missile hit, two hospitals were urgently evacuated, in particular, children's one, — reported the Kyiv City State Administration.

In recent months, Norway has provided military assistance to Ukraine totaling almost 1 billion Norwegian kroner (approximately 850 million euros), as per a press release from the Norwegian government.
The assistance consisted of artillery shells, anti-tank weapons, minesweepers, and support for tank maintenance.

In Britain, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has charged five men with crimes against national security on behalf of Russia.
The men are accused of setting fire to Ukraine-related commercial property in East London in March. Another man is charged with "possession of information relating to terrorist activity".
According to Sky News, 20-year-old Dylan Earle is linked to the outlawed PMC "Wagner". According to the version of the investigation, in addition to arson, he was involved in fraud, research and intelligence on targets, and tried to recruit people to help foreign intelligence services.

It is one of the most scandalous Russian fabrications exposed by Ukraine's Centre for Countering Disinformation. How Moscow failed in its effort to accuse Ukraine of assisting Mexican cartels. https://t.me/United24media/21250

On our channel, we often show Western-produced weapons, as a part of military aid to Ukraine, but today we will show the first Ukrainian-made artillery system of 155 caliber—2s22 Bohdana.

UNITED24Media

It is one of the most scandalous Russian fabrications exposed by Ukraine's Centre for Countering Disinformation. How Moscow failed in its effort to accuse Ukraine of assisting Mexican cartels.

https://t.me/United24media/21250

DancesWithDucks · 27/04/2024 11:48

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇧🇪 Belgium will provide Ukraine with €200 million and missiles for air defense systems from its own stockpile. Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder did not specify the number and type of missiles. https://www.rtbf.be/article/guerre-en-ukraine-invasion-de-l-ukraine-la-belgique-accelere-la-livraison-de-f-16-si-possible-avant-fin-2024-11365690

A Russian official came straight to a college to recruit 18-year-old schoolchildren to go to war. He brought with him one who expressed a desire to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense to die in Ukraine, since there is "no work in his town, nothing to do" https://t.me/liveukraine_media/20450

Live: Ukraine

A Russian official came straight to a college to recruit 18-year-old schoolchildren to go to war. He brought with him one who expressed a desire to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense to die in Ukraine, since there is "no work in his town, not...

https://t.me/liveukraine_media/20450

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 27/04/2024 14:11

notimagain · 27/04/2024 08:56

Hi,

IMHO, for what it is worth, open to correction, etc, is it all went wrong for Putin when Russian specialist units and forces couldn’t either remove President Zelensky from office in the early hours of day one or take Hostomel airfield. If either of those had happened I think it would probably have been over very quickly.

They didn’t, that meant more of a slog towards Kyiv and I don’t think anyone (on either side) appreciated how badly the mass of the Russian Army would perform when faced with determined opposition armed with modern weapons.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/intellectual-failures-behind-russias-bungled-invasion

As I understood it at the time, because the Kremlin/Secret service had been privily paying for people who would rise up for them when the time was ripe, they expected people to rise up for them and be a ground force to cover the airborne landing at Hostomel (Antonov) Airport. They didn't get that, because the people the Kremlin had been giving money to suborn with had trousered the money and not bothered with the actual suborning, while making large claims about having done so and the number of fighting men who would rise to help Russian troops when they were needed. So the troops parachuted in, got no support, and were routed by the Ukrainian army. By the time they did capture the airfield a day or was it two days later, it had been too badly damaged for it to be much immediate use to them and the impetus they would have had was lost.

Essentially, their fifth columnists took the money and ran, which banjaxed that operation a fair bit.

There were a whole lot of disappearances not long afterwards among the people who had been supposedly organising the ground support that never happened, I think. But my memory for names being what it no longer is, I can't remember any of them!

The other thing I got the impression had made life difficult for the Russian invasion right at the start was that they'd simply misjudged the capacity of the Ukrainian roads, such that if one tank or armoured personnel carrier of theirs broke down it was very difficult to get round or past it and the whole column was held up until that tank could be either started again or got out of the way. And that snowballed, because the tanks that were held up then started to run out of fuel and create hold-ups in their turn.

Was I completely wrong about all that?

notimagain · 27/04/2024 15:17

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime

Hi…

Oh I’m sure the Kremlin had planned all sorts of covert/underhand stuff that fortunately didn’t work out…

that snowballed, because the tanks that were held up then started to run out of fuel and create hold-ups in their turn.

Was I completely wrong about all that?

I’d have to look back at what was reported, but in any event the ground stuff is really best commented on by @MissConductUS

MagicFox · 27/04/2024 16:17

Lawrence Freedman, What new aid really means for Ukraine — and for Putin

on.ft.com/3UfRdLr

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 27/04/2024 16:20

I think that's exactly what happened, though I'm no MissConductUS.

The head of the FSB responsible for the failure of the Ukrainians to support Russia en masse ended up in a rather feared prison!

DancesWithDucks · 27/04/2024 16:23

@blueshoes is away today

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Western media continues to report that select US officials have resumed discussing the idea of “freezing the lines” where they are because the latest package of US military assistance to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all its territory. Supporters of the current package have not claimed that it would by itself allow Ukraine to liberate all occupied territory, and the discussion of possible end states of the war is very premature as President Joe Biden signed the bill authorizing the new package only two days ago.
  • Public meetings between officials from Russia, Belarus, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and North Korea have surged in recent days, with at least 10 high-level bilateral meetings between April 22 and 26, underscoring the deepening multilateral partnership these states are constructing to confront the West.
  • PRC officials claimed that NATO bears responsibility for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine amid meetings between PRC officials and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 26.
  • Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with immediate and longer-term military assistance, particularly for Ukraine’s air defenses.
  • The Ukrainian military has reportedly pulled US-provided M1A1 Abrams tanks from the frontline in part because of the widespread threat of Russian drones and other strikes. [others deny this]
  • Russian authorities continue efforts to expand the definition of prosecutable anti-war sentiment to portray Russians who oppose the war in Ukraine as opposing Russia itself.
  • Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces made a confirmed advance in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, although this advance was likely not recent.
  • Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Tatar-Bashkort service Idel Realii reported on April 26 that Samara Oblast is forming a new “Batyr” volunteer motorized rifle battalion.
  • The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) issued a joint statement on behalf of 45 member states stating that Russia has arbitrarily detained thousands of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukraine and subjected them to cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Igotjelly · 27/04/2024 16:25

Listening to We’re All Going to Die radio on the Deep State Radio network and they’re talking about the China/US relationship with esteemed foreign relations expert Graham Allison. He has plenty of contacts in the Govt and Pentagon and is very well respected and he assesses there was a 50/50 chance of Putin using a nuclear weapon in autumn 2022. Crazy to think about how just how close we potentially came.

WinterMorn · 27/04/2024 17:23

Igotjelly · 27/04/2024 16:25

Listening to We’re All Going to Die radio on the Deep State Radio network and they’re talking about the China/US relationship with esteemed foreign relations expert Graham Allison. He has plenty of contacts in the Govt and Pentagon and is very well respected and he assesses there was a 50/50 chance of Putin using a nuclear weapon in autumn 2022. Crazy to think about how just how close we potentially came.

What held him back? China?

Igotjelly · 27/04/2024 17:29

WinterMorn · 27/04/2024 17:23

What held him back? China?

They didn’t discuss it overly, it was more in the context of the fact that nuclear weapons are very much still in play. But they alluded to China having a role along with other diplomatic routes.

WinterMorn · 27/04/2024 17:37

Thank you. I remember commenting several threads back that when this horrible situation was all over, it would be interesting to see how much had gone on behind the scenes that we couldn’t even imagine at the time.

MissConductUS · 27/04/2024 17:40

notimagain · 27/04/2024 15:17

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime

Hi…

Oh I’m sure the Kremlin had planned all sorts of covert/underhand stuff that fortunately didn’t work out…

that snowballed, because the tanks that were held up then started to run out of fuel and create hold-ups in their turn.

Was I completely wrong about all that?

I’d have to look back at what was reported, but in any event the ground stuff is really best commented on by @MissConductUS

Happy to help where I can.

On the partisan support they expected, I think the Russians fell victim to their own propaganda that the Ukrainians were beset by Nazis and that they would welcome the Russian troops with flowers and tea. This is called an intelligence failure.

There were several reasons why so many Russian tanks and combat vehicles ran out of fuel. They didn't bring much with them, expecting the whole campaign to be over in three or four days. Russian logistics depend on rail transport. Anytime trucks are needed, it's going to be a clusterfuck. The Russians also don't do realistic field exercises to discover problems like this. Russian tankers were ordered to bring their dress uniforms with them on the assumption that they'd be parading through the streets of Kyiv in a few days.

One of the antitank tactics the US military trainers imparted was to attack fuel convoys as a top priority over tanks and other combat vehicles. Another was to first hit tanks at the front and back of a road column, which immobilizes the entire column with their engines running. The tanks then have to go off road, if they can, to get around the destroyed tanks blocking the road and the whole unit loses cohesion. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian hunter-killer teams are picking them off with Javelins and NLAWS from a distance.

Even as fuel gets critically short, tank troops are loath to shut off the engine to conserve fuel. First, the engine might not start again, and second, the loss of electrical power shuts off the fire control system, sensors, and all of the other electronics in the tank. At that point, the tank becomes a 60-ton steel death trap, with no mobility or awareness of the threat environment.

Let me know if I've missed any of your questions.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 27/04/2024 18:55

No, that seems pretty comprehensive! Thanks.

And it sounds very much as if I am not as senile as I feared and had in fact remembered more-or-less right, except I missed out the "get the fuel convoys first" tactic. I thought, in a vague way, that once the road was blocked with stationary tanks the fuel vehicles wouldn't be able to get to them anyway.

I suspect you can get pretty cold in a tank in the Ukrainian winter once the heating isn't working, too.

And who can forget the marvellous clip of a defunct tank being towed away by a tractor, right near the start of all this? (I got myself a mug from St Javelin to commemorate it.)

DancesWithDucks · 28/04/2024 10:02

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US security assistance to arrive at the front but remains unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
  • Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces will likely be able to prevent operationally significant Russian advances during Russia’s expected summer offensive effort, although Russian forces will nevertheless leverage select advantages and adaptations to pose a significant threat to Ukraine this summer.
  • The tempo of Russian offensive operations is currently higher in the Avdiivka direction than near Chasiv Yar, as Russian forces focus on exploiting a tactical situation that is unfavorable to Ukrainian troops northwest of Avdiivka. Russian forces are likely to intensify offensive operations near Chasiv Yar in the coming weeks, however, as Chasiv Yar provides Russian forces with the opportunity for more operationally significant advances.
  • Russian forces conducted large-scale cruise and ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 26 to 27 and have likely resumed sea based Kalibr cruise missile strikes after a long pause.
  • Ukrainian forces successfully conducted drone strikes against a Russian airfield and oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai on the night of April 26 to 27.
  • The Russian federal government continues efforts to codify increased control over migrant communities living in Russia.
  • The Kremlin is likely setting conditions to intensify its hybrid operations against Moldova.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances north of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk City.
  • Russian federal subjects continue to sponsor Russian military formations.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US security assistance to arrive at the front but remains unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. Politico reported on April 26 that Ukrainian Preside...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2024

DancesWithDucks · 28/04/2024 10:29

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Medvedev threatens Russia may seize private US assets if Washington seizes frozen Russian reserves. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-may-seize-private-us-assets-if-washington-seizes-frozen-russian-reserves-medvedev-claims/

⚡️ Military: Russia gains foothold in Ocheretyne in Donetsk Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-gains-foothold-in-ocheretyne-in-donetsk-oblast/

⚡️Ukraine's military intelligence says it hit Russian Podlet-K1 $5 million radar system. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-says-it-hit-russian-5-million-radar-system/

Ukraine's 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade dismissed on April 27 a news story by the Associated Press (AP), which said that Ukrainian forces withdrew U.S.-supplied Abrams tanks from the front due to the threat of Russian drones. https://kyivindependent.com/military-denies-media-reports-about-pulling-abrams-tanks-from-front/

⚡️ Naftogaz: Russia's morning attack targeted gas infrastructure. https://kyivindependent.com/naftogaz-russias-morning-attack-targeted-gas-infrastructure/

⚡️ Russian media: Russia's Krasnodar Krai oil refinery 'partially suspends operations after drone attack. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-russias-krasnodar-krai-oil-refinery-partially-suspends-operations-after-drone-attack/

⚡️Ombudsman: Red Cross 'playing along with Russian aggression.' https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-red-cross-playing-along-with-russian-aggression/

⚡️Australia announces $65 million aid package for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/australia-announces-65-million-aid-package-for-ukraine/

⚡️Slovak citizens raise $4 million for Czech ammunition initiative after government refuses to contribute. https://kyivindependent.com/slovak-citizens-raise-4-million-for-czech-ammunition-initiative-after-government-refuses-to-contribute/

The US weapons https://kyivindependent.com/the-us-weapons-making-their-way-to-ukraine-right-now/ making their way to Ukraine right now
After months of delays and frustration, U.S. military aid is once again heading to Ukraine in significant quantities.
Among the first to arrive will be a $1 billion package of weapons and equipment from U.S. stockpiles, the Pentagon announced on April 24.
The Kyiv Independent has put together a detailed list of what the Pentagon's $1 billion package includes.

The Foreign Ministry of Tajikistan recommended its citizens refrain from traveling to Russia, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported on April 27. https://kyivindependent.com/tajikistan-recommends-its-citizens-refrain-from-traveling-to-russia/

⚡️2 Ukrainians killed in Germany, https://kyivindependent.com/2-ukrainians-killed-in-germany-russian-suspect-detained/ Russian suspect detained.
A Russian man is suspected of killing two Ukrainians who were stabbed in the town of Murnau in Germany on April 27, German local police reported.

⚡️ WSJ: Putin likely did not directly order Navalny's death, US intelligence says. https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-putin-likely-did-not-directly-order-navalnys-death-us-intelligence-says/
The finding does not indicate that Putin is not guilty of Navalny's death, only that he did not order it at that moment, the WSJ noted. Some European officials and Navalny's associates were reportedly skeptical about the conclusion.

⚡️Russian authorities detain 12th suspect in connection with Moscow terrorist attack.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-authorities-detain-12th-suspect/

⚡️Russia attacks 10 communities in Sumy Oblast.

⚡️Russia claims 17 drones shot downincluding near Kaluga Oblast's oil depot.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • APR 28, 2024
■ Engagements below avg but casualties above it ■ Equipment well above average; notable tank & APV losses ■ Good air strike ratio, less favorable artillery strike ratio ■ Oryx in last 30 days: 14 🇷🇺 per day vs 5 🇺🇦; ratio 2.7x
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 28/04/2024 12:25

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

"Ukraine requires at least 7 Patriot systems, and we cannot afford to delay," emphasized Zelenskyy.

According to DW, opinions among Western observers regarding the impact of the US-approved aid to Kyiv are divided, but there is consensus that the coming months will remain extremely challenging for the Ukrainian armed forces.

After a meeting with Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Australia is preparing a new $100 million aid package for Ukraine. Half of the amount will be allocated for a significant batch of MANPADS, while over $30 million will be designated for drones," Shmyhal stated.
He added, "Additionally, Australia will provide air-to-ground munitions to Ukraine."
Shmyhal expressed gratitude, noting that Australia's support for Ukraine has already exceeded $655 million, with $540 million allocated for military aid.

Belgium will allocate 200 million euros to Germany's initiative to find air defense systems for Ukraine

⚡️Canada will allocate more than 2 million dollars for the production of UAVs in Ukraine

"Japan has joined the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian Children," announced Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets.
The coalition was inaugurated in Kyiv on February 2, 2024, as a joint initiative of Ukraine and Canada. Currently, it has garnered support from 36 countries.

Ukrainian gymnast Illia Kovtun pulled off a remarkable feat at the European Gymnastics Championships in Italy, winning two gold medals in one day.

Forbes reports that Ukraine has developed a long-range attack UAV based on the Skyranger Nynja Sport Plane.
The drone boasts a flight range of 640 km and can carry payloads of up to 100 kg.
Equipped with sensors, cameras, and GPS, the aircraft can serve dual purposes: functioning as a bomber by dropping bombs and returning to base, or operating as a kamikaze drone.

DTEK showed photos of power plants destroyed in a nighttime missile attack by the Russians.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 28/04/2024 12:34

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russians have managed to gain a foothold in part of the village of Ocheretyne in Donetsk oblast
This was reported by the spokesman for the Khortytsia military grouping during a telethon.
"The enemy managed to break through and gain a foothold in a certain part of this settlement. Currently, the part where the enemy is located is under our fire control. All measures are being taken to drive the enemy out of the area, heavy fighting is ongoing. The situation is under control of the Defense Forces," he said.
The spokesperson also clarified that in the area of Ocheretyne, the Russians engaged 4 brigades in combat.

Russians dropped 11 guided bombs on the right-bank part of Kherson oblast this morning, - head of the Regional Military Administration Prokudin
Six settlements came under fire: Beryslav, Novoberislav, Kostyrka, Prydniprovske, Veletynske, and Kizomys.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 28/04/2024 18:11

This is a massive increase. The war is extracting a huge human cost on both sides.

There is mention of the potential for protests against the war.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
MissConductUS · 28/04/2024 19:01

DancesWithDucks · 28/04/2024 18:11

This is a massive increase. The war is extracting a huge human cost on both sides.

There is mention of the potential for protests against the war.

Ironically, you’d see many more disabled Russians at home if their tactical casualty care wasn’t so horrendously awful. Many die of wounds that would be quite survivable with proper blood loss control.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/31/ukraine-military-medicine-russia-war/

Ukraine’s Military Medicine Is a Critical Advantage

Russia’s outdated training and equipment are costing soldiers their lives.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/31/ukraine-military-medicine-russia-war/

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