Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Military: 'Great battle' ongoing for control over logistics routes near Chasiv Yar. https://kyivindependent.com/military-6/

⚡️ Military intelligence general: Chasiv Yar's fall probably a matter of time.
The fall of the embattled Donetsk Oblast town of Chasiv Yar in a way similar to Avdiivka is probably a matter of time, a military intelligence deputy head, Major General Vadym Skibitsky, said in an interview with The Economist published on May 2. https://kyivindependent.com/general-loss-of-chasiv-yar-likely-a-matter-of-time/

⚡️ Russia's goal in 2024 is to completely occupy Donetsk, Luhansk, and, if possible, Zaporizhzhia oblasts, Ukraine's Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavliuk told The Times on May 2. https://kyivindependent.com/ground-forces-commander-russia-aims-to-complete-occupation-of-3-oblasts-in-2024/

⚡️ Politico: Biden to shift public focus from Ukraine to economy during election campaign.
U.S. President Joe Biden will focus on support of Ukraine less in his public display during the election campaign, Politico reported on May 2, citing undisclosed official sources close to the White House. https://kyivindependent.com/politico-biden-to-pay-less-attention-to-war-in-ukraine-during-election-campaign/

⚡️Macron says he would consider sending troops to Ukraine in case of Russian breakthrough at the front or if Ukraine requested it, in an interview with the Economist published on May 2. https://kyivindependent.com/macron-says-he-would-send-troops-to-ukraine-in-case-of-russian-breakthrough-ukrainian-request/

⚡️ Zelensky confirms date of Switzerland peace summit, June 15-16, Russia not invited. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-confirms-date-of-switzerland-peace-summit-russia-not-invited/

⚡️Yermak: Ukraine strongly encouraging Chinese participation in upcoming global peace summit. https://kyivindependent.com/yermak-ukraine-strongly-encouraging-chinese-participation-in-upcoming-global-peace-summit/

The European Union will host an EU-Ukraine Defense Industries Forum on May 6 to boost cooperation with Ukraine's defense industry, the EU announced on May 2. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-ukraine-to-host-defense-industries-forum-in-brussels/

⚡️NATO accuses Russia of conducting hybrid attacks inside alliance territory.
NATO released a statement condemning Russian "hybrid actions" after multiple individuals were accused of working on behalf of Russia from within NATO territory. https://kyivindependent.com/nato-accuses-russia-of-conducting-hybrid-attacks-inside-alliance-territory/

⚡️Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine is unlikely to end anytime soon, Director of U.S. National Intelligence Avril Haines said on May 2, according to Reuters. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-war-against-ukraine-unlikely-to-end-anytime-soon-us-intelligence-chief-says/

⚡️ Media: Italy to give Ukraine SAMP/T https://kyivindependent.com/media-italy-to-give-ukraine-samp-t-system-in-new-aid-package/ system in new aid package.

⚡️US military battalion to remain in Lithuania indefinitely.
The American military battalion stationed in Lithuania will remain in the country indefinitely, not just until 2025 as previously planned, Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas said on May 2.

⚡️ White House: Russia supplies North Korea with fuel above UN cap. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-russia-supplies-north-korea-with-oil-in-circumvention-of-un-restrictions/

⚡️Hackers targeted Ukraine's largest mobile-only bank, Monobank, with a powerful denial of service (DDoS) attack on May 2, the company's co-founder and CEO Oleh Horokhovskyi reported. https://kyivindependent.com/hackers-target-ukrainian-national-bank/

⚡️Military intelligence carries out cyberattack in Russia's Tatarstan. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-carries-out-cyberattack-in-russias-tatarstan/

⚡️Police record nearly 2,000 Russian strikes in Donetsk Oblast in single day. kyivindependent.com/police-record-nearly-2-000-russian-strikes-in-donetsk-oblast-in-single-day/

⚡️ Bloomberg: Russians who left abroad increasingly return home https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-thousands-of-russians-return-home-boosting-war-economy/ boosting economy.
An increasing number of Russians who left abroad after the outbreak of the full-scale invasion are returning home, namely due to difficulties with residence permits and personal finances, Bloomberg reported on May 2.

⚡️ Germany accuses Russia of cyberattack against governing party in 2023. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-accuses-russia-of-cyberattack-against-governing-party-in-2023/

⚡️ Georgian PM refuses to visit US due to condition regarding 'foreign agents' law. https://kyivindependent.com/georgias-pm-refuses-to-visit-us-due-to-condition-regarding-foreign-agents-law/#:~:text=Georgian%20Prime%20Minister%20Irakli%20Kobakhidze%20will%20not%20travel%20to%20the,Ministry%20said%20on%20May%202.

⚡️Reuters: Cameron says UK supports Ukraine's right to use British weapons to strike inside Russia https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-cameron-says-uk-supports-ukraines-right-to-use-british-weapons-to-strike-inside-russia/

⚡️Kyiv authorities advise citizens against visiting churches during Easter celebrations, citing potential safety concerns. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-authorities-advise-citizens-against-visiting-churches-during-easter-celebrations-citing-potential-safety-concerns/

⚡️Reuters: Russian court cancels https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-russian-court-cancels-confiscation-of-some-jpmorgan-assets-in-dispute-with-russian-bank/ confiscation of some JPMorgan assets in dispute with Russian bank. [Odd. I wonder why? the courts are not neutral, in Russia]

⚡️Fugitive ex-SBU official charged with illicitly acquiring $830,000 in assets. https://kyivindependent.com/ex-sbu-official-charged-with-illiciting-enrichment/

⚡️ Zelensky: Russia drops over 3,200 guided aerial bombs on Ukraine in April.
⚡️ Authorities: Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast town injures 7 children, elderly man.
⚡️Russia attacks 9 communities in Sumy Oblast.
⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 5, injure 17 over past day.

⚡️ Ministry: Russia's war destroys or damages almost 2,000 cultural facilities. https://kyivindependent.com/ministry-russias-war-destroys-or-damages-almost-2-000-cultural-sites/

⚡️Russian attack on Odesa postal depot destroys 15.5 tons of shipments. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-odesa-destroys-postal-depot/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• MAY 3, 2024

■ Most engagements in over a year, highest 7-day casualties to date ■ Artillery targeted, continued tank losses ■ Increased 🇺🇦 strikes; improved strike ratios ■ KIU: +41 officers; 5 per day in last four batches

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

NATO has accused Russia of engaging in malicious actions against its member states and has pledged to respond accordingly.
The alliance highlighted recent charges brought against individuals in various NATO member countries, including the Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and the United Kingdom, in connection with hostile state activities.

Russia launches the first train on the railroad that is being built in the Azov Sea as an alternative to the Kerch Bridge, — Petro Andriushchenko, advisor to the mayor of Mariupol.
“The first train from Mariupol port to Volnovakha station left the port today. Given the speed of railroad construction in the area of Hranitne village, it's hard to call this good news,” he said.

President Zelenskyy has expressed concerns that Kremlin leader Putin may attempt to disrupt the proceedings of the Global Peace Summit, scheduled to take place in Switzerland in mid-June.

Russia has exported stolen Ukrainian grain from the port of Sevastopol to Venezuela for the first time, says SeaKrime journalist Kateryna Yaresko.
The Enisey, a vessel of the Russian Northern Merchant Marine, arrived at the Crimean coast from Arkhangelsk on April 6 and turned off the AIS system. The next day, the vessel entered Sevastopol, where it was loaded with 27,000 tons of
According to documents published by journalists, the owner of Ukrainian grain is the Russian company "Agrogroup".

Damages from Russian crimes in Ukraine have already amounted to nearly $500 billion — frozen Russian assets will not cover all recovery needs, — the head of the National Bank of Ukraine.

Latvian Army starts digging anti-tank trenches on the border with Russia
The first line of defense is being built about one kilometer from the Russian border, not far from the Terekhovo border crossing in Ludensky region.
The anti-mobility plan includes the creation of a chain of artificial obstacles and the use of natural obstacles: rivers, swamps, forests. In case of hostilities, minefields will be created. It's about obstacles without the use of explosives.

The Ukrainian Navy command has named two Estonian boats "Irpin", in honor of the Ukrainian hero city, and "Reni", in honor of the city which port is closest to the Republic of Estonia.
The boats will perform combat missions, including protection of civilian navigation, the Ukrainian Navy reported.

In the afternoon, the Russian Federation carried out airstrikes on the town of Dergachi in the Kharkiv region, resulting in the injury of 8 children.
The injured include two 11-year-olds, two 12-year-olds, and two children aged 13 and 15. They are in moderate condition.

The owner of PornHub has registered as a VAT payer in Ukraine, announced Danylo Hetmantsev, the head of the Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on Finance, Tax, and Customs Policy. [whaaa -?]

Estonian Member of Parliament Kristo Enn Vaga cycled from Tallinn to Kyiv to raise money for the Ukrainian defenders.
His goal was to show that the war is only a bike ride away. So far, €29,916 has been transferred by donors, and the fundraising is ongoing. The money will be used to buy four-wheel drive vehicles and FPV drones.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights Thread

US intelligence chief predicts Russia's "aggressive tactics" in Ukraine shortly
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines believes https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-war-not-likely-end-anytime-soon-says-top-us-spy-2024-05-02/ that Putin will resort to aggressive tactics as domestic and international events develop in his favor.
Haines noted that Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure to prevent Kyiv from moving weapons and troops, slow down defense production, and force it to consider negotiations.

🇺🇦Russia is preparing an offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. The main attack will begin "in late May or early June." The northern grouping, which is based on the border with Kharkiv oblast, currently has 35,000 soldiers, but it is planned to increase to 50,000-70,000, but this is not enough to take large cities – Ukrainian intelligence
Currently, Russia has 514,000 troops involved in the war in Ukraine. The occupiers need to capture "at least something" by May 9. The main task is to occupy Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The biggest concern is Chasiv Yar, on which the fate of the Donetsk oblast depends.
The situation on the battlefield is more difficult for Ukraine than ever since the first days of the invasion, and it will get worse.

🇬🇧The UK will provide Ukraine with 3 billion pounds ($3.74 billion) in annual military aid for "as long as it takes" https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-cameron-kyiv-promises-ukraine-aid-as-long-it-takes-2024-05-02/

“The Russians would take the Baltics in seven days,” Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, told the Economist https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/ukraine-is-on-the-brink-says-a-senior-general He added, “NATO’s reaction time is ten days.”
Ukraine’s bravery and sacrifice have given Europe a multi-year head start, removing the immediate threat from Russia’s once feared airborne forces and marine corps for at least a decade, he says. The question is whether Europe will repay the favour by keeping Ukraine in the game. “We will keep fighting. We have no choice. We want to live. But the outcome of the war [...] isn’t just down to us.”

🇷🇺🇺🇸🇳🇪Russian troops have entered https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/02/politics/us-russian-forces-niger-base/index.html the United States base in Niger. They have been sharing it for several weeks now
Recently, the US agreed to the junta's demand to withdraw its troops, but the Russians entered the country faster.
A Reuters source said that the Americans and Russians occupy hangars in different parts of the base and do not intersect. The situation is under control. Pentagon spokesman Lloyd Austin confirmed this and said that the Russians have no access to US military equipment.

In the evening of May 2, an explosion occurred in the temporarily occupied Berdiansk and a large-scale fire broke out.
The head of the city military administration added that they are currently waiting for accurate information.
At the same time, social media reports that the Dormash plant is located in the area, where the occupiers used to repair their military equipment.

[Sending French troops to Ukraine] In an interview https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/emmanuel-macron-in-his-own-words-english with The Economist, the president said that such a scenario is possible if "Russia breaks through the front line" and there is a request from Ukraine. Then, Macron said, "we will need to put this issue on the table." Ruling out the deployment of troops "a priori means not learning the lessons of the last two years."

A 48-year-old Ukrainian died of stab wounds in Budapest
According to the police of the Hungarian capital, after a quarrel and a fight, a 44-year-old Kazakh stabbed a Ukrainian several times. The man was seriously injured and died on the spot.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress , new ducklings?

More statements from General Vadym Skibitskyi

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian intelligence officials identified three Russian efforts to destabilize Ukraine and achieve victory, and both Ukrainian and US intelligence officials issued assessments about the battlefield situation that are consistent with prior ISW forecasts that Russian forces may take Chasiv Yar but are very unlikely to seize major Ukrainian cities.
• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi assessed that Russian forces will likely begin an offensive effort towards Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts at the end of May or start of June 2024 but that Russian forces will not be able to take Kharkiv or Sumy cities.
• Skibitskyi noted that the Kremlin views information operations as a second line of effort to defeat Ukraine and that current Russian information operations heavily focus on undermining Ukrainian mobilization efforts and the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
• Skibitskyi stressed that Russia’s third line of effort to achieve victory in Ukraine is an ongoing campaign to diplomatically isolate Ukraine.
• The US Department of State (DoS) announced on May 1 that it has determined that Russian forces are violating the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which Russia is a signatory.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Tula Oblast Governor and known Wagner Group-affiliate Alexei Dyumin on May 2, further indicating that Putin may be seeking to reduce Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's power by balancing him with rivals.
• Putin likely deliberately publicized his meeting with Dyumin following the high-profile arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24 and before the presidential inauguration on May 7, possibly to punish the Shoigu-led MoD for failing to accomplish the Kremlin’s military goals.
• The Putin-Dyumin meeting suggests that Putin is likely the responsible decision-maker behind Ivanov’s arrest.
• Recent Russian government crackdowns against Central Asian migrants living in and entering Russia following the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack appear to be straining Kyrgyz-Russian relations in addition to Tajik-Russian relations.
• The Georgian parliament passed Georgia’s Russian-style “foreign agents” law in its second reading on May 1 amid continued protests against the law in Tbilisi.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances west of Avdiivka.
• The Russian military may have recruited numerous prisoners with convictions for serious crimes in fall of 2023.

Good article here from Forbes on what the Ukrainians have been doing with the ATACMS. These missiles were designed to penetrate Russian air defenses.

Hundreds of Russian Troops Gathered Out In The Open. They Didn’t Know The Ukrainians Had Aimed Four ATACMS Rockets At Them. Potentially more than 100 Russians died as the ATACMS struck near Kuban in eastern Ukraine.

Here's the conclusion for those who don't want to click the link:

When the Ukrainians got their initial small batch of ATACMS, last fall, they promptly hurled the rockets at a pair of Russian airfields, damaging or destroying as many as 20 helicopters. And when the first new batch of rockets arrived, apparently in early April, Ukrainian crews wasted no time bombarding a valuable Russian air force S-400 air-defense battery, destroying at least four of its launchers.

The attack on the S-400 was a reminder that no Russian air defenses can reliably shoot down an incoming ATACMS. The implication was clear: as of April, any exposed Russians within 190 miles of the front line were vulnerable to Ukraine’s growing arsenal of ATACMS.

Ignoring the danger, the Russians gathered out in the open near Kuban—and then more than a hundred of them reportedly died as the ATACMS thundered in.

@blueshoes new ducklings indeed =) (although the new mumsnet moniker doesn't seem to want to stick).

Totally off topic but we've been having bad luck with the brood machine, only got one healthy ball of fluff out and one sickly one that with all the love in the world could not make it :( So we had to get two small ducklings extra as you really really can't have just one, and the big boys would have killed it.

They have doubled their size in just 8 days!

Adorable ducks, @DucklingSwimmingInstructress.

The problems caused by Russians jamming GPS signals have been much in the news recently. It's a problem for civil aviation but a more significant issue on the battlefield as it greatly degrades the performance of GPS-guided weapons.

The Pentagon has announced that they are acquiring guidance systems that will allow JDAM-ER (Joint Direct Attack Munitions - Extended Range) bombs to home on GPS jamming equipment. Ukraine is already using these bombs with other seeker heads, and the company involved already makes GPS-jamming seeker units for other munitions, so I expect to see them in use fairly soon.

This will allow Ukrainian AF pilots to drop these bombs from a distance, and they will guide themselves to the Russian jamming installations.

JDAM-ER Winged Bombs With Seekers That Home In On GPS Jammers Headed To Ukraine - Plans to give Ukraine JDAM-ERs with new seekers come as Western precision-guided munitions are reportedly suffering from Russian GPS jamming.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ US intelligence: Putin's "paranoid fear" of the West seeking to limit Russia's power has led him to spend historically record amounts on militarization, Director of U.S. National Intelligence Avril Haines said on May 2, according to Voice of America. https://kyivindependent.com/us-intelligence-putin-spends-record-amounts-on-militarization-due-to-paranoid-fear-of-west-limiting-russias-power/

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine facing 'new stage' in war as Russia preparing to expand offensive.
Ukraine is facing "a new stage" in the Russia's full-scale war, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a meeting with border guards in Khmelnytskyi Oblast on May 3.
Zelensky's statement came amid a deteriorating situation on the battlefield. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-15/

⚡️Bloomberg: The United States is leading talks among the Group of Seven (G7) nations to develop a military aid package to Ukraine worth up to $50 billion, Bloomberg reported on May 3. The potential package would reportedly be funded by the profits generated by accrued interest on frozen Russian assets. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-us-leading-efforts-within-g7-to-develop-50-billion-aid-package-to-ukraine/

⚡️The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced on May 3 that it was implementing the largest set of currency liberalization measures since the beginning of the full-scale war. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-central-bank-institutes-largest-package-of-currency-liberalization-measures-since-beginning-of-full-scale-war/

⚡️Presidential Office: Joint negotiating position to be submitted to Russia after Switzerland peace summit.
Participants of the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland will formulate a common negotiating position on the end of the war and submit it to Russia, presidential spokesperson Sergii Nykyforov said on May 3, according to Deutsche Welle.
Ukraine's peace summit will be held on June 15-16 in the Burgenstock resort above Lake Lucerne, and 160 national delegations will be invited to the talks. https://kyivindependent.com/presidential-office-switzerland-peace-summit-negotiating-position-will-be-submitted-to-russia/

⚡️Ambassador: Washington doesn't support strikes with U.S.-made weapons in Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/ambassador-washington-not-supporting-strikes-with-u-s-made-weapons-in-russia/ [In context, the UK Foreign Secretary has said UK weopons can be used against targets in Russia]

⚡️Ukraine rises in World Press Freedom Index despite constraints of full-scale war.
Ukraine rose from 79th to 61st place in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders (RSF) on May 3.
[Russia is at 162 out of 180 https://rsf.org/en/country/russia ]

⚡️ White House does not currently see China open to Ukraine's peace formula. https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-us-does-not-see-china-agreeing-on-ukraines-peace-formula-to-influence-russia/

⚡️German company to deliver https://kyivindependent.com/german-company-delivers-6-trml-4d-radars-to-ukraine/ 6 more TRML-4D radars to Ukraine.
Hensoldt, a German defense manufacturer, will provide Ukraine with six more TRML-4D radars by the end of 2024, the company said on May 3.

⚡️USAID allocates over $250 million to Ukraine's agricultural sector. https://kyivindependent.com/usaid-allocates-over-250-million-to-ukraines-agricultural-sector/
The losses and damages to Ukraine's agricultural sector amounted to over $80 billion as of late February, according to the estimations of the Kyiv School of Economics and the World Bank.

Belarus Weekly: Belarusian hackers claim to have infiltrated KGB computer network. This week in Belarus: the Belarusian Cyber Partisans group claims to have hacked KGB servers, accessing 40,000 denunciation reports and 8,600 agent profiles. https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-belarusian-hackers-claim-to-have-infiltrated-kgb-computer-network/

⚡️Russian media: Raiffeisen Bank will begin https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-raiffeisen-bank-will-begin-exiting-russia-in-summer-2024/ exiting Russia in summer 2024.
Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) is making plans to begin its exit from the country in the summer of 2024, Russian media reported on May 3, citing the company's chairman, Johann Strobl.

⚡️EU, NATO denounce Russia's cyberattacks on Germany, Czechia. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-nato-denounce-russias-malicious-cyberattacks-on-germany-czechia/

⚡️Ukraine says close to $500,000 in reconstruction funds for Borodianka 'disappeared.' https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-says-close-to-500-000-in-reconstruction-funds-for-borodianka-disappeared/ [bloody hell. The only slight positive aspect you can draw out of this is that at least Ukraine isn't covering it up. But half a million - ! ]

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine open to considering https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-open-to-considering-all-for-all-pow-exchange/ all-for-all POW exchange.

⚡️ Czech FM on Ukrainian draft-aged men abroad: We do not support those who avoid obligation imposed by law. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-fm-on-ukrainian-draft-aged-men/

⚡️UK Foreign Office announces beginning of talks on '100-Year Partnership' with Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-cameron-says-uk-supports-ukraines-right-to-use-british-weapons-to-strike-inside-russia/

⚡️Russian students studying in Finland detained https://kyivindependent.com/russian-students-studying-in-finland-detained-on-suspicion-of-exporting-duel-use-goods/ on suspicion of exporting dual-use goods.

⚡️Update: Russia attacks Kharkiv, hitting residential areas.
⚡️Update: Russian attack on Kharkiv kills woman.
⚡️ Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast kill 3, injure 5.
⚡️Governor: Russian missile attack on Kirovohrad Oblast injures man.
⚡️Russia launches drone attack on Kharkiv, injuring at least 4.
⚡️Russia attacks 10 communities in Sumy Oblast.

⚡️SBU arrest https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-arrest-russian-corrections-officer-who-allegedly-spied-on-ukrainian-positions-while-walking-dog/ man who allegedly spied on Ukrainian positions while walking dog.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• MAY 4, 2024

■ New record for 7-day casualties; 9th highest daily losses reported ■ Equipment losses stay well above average; special equipment passes 2,000 mark ■ Increased air strikes & fewer artillery ones on both sides

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia used chemical munitions 444 times in a month, — Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In the period from February 2023 to April of this year, there were recorded 1891 cases of the use of ammunition with hazardous chemicals by Russia.
According to the Ukrainian military, Russian forces most often use K-51 grenades dropped from unmanned aerial vehicles.
The enemy continues to use munitions containing hazardous chemicals, which violates the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling, and Use of Chemical Weapons and on Their Destruction, as well as the laws and customs of warfare.

Estonia and Luxembourg provided Ukraine with €900 thousand worth of equipment, — Defense Ministry of Ukraine.
This is the first delivery to the Armed Forces of Ukraine as part of the IT coalition. It includes laptops, monitors, and other communication equipment that will be delivered to the units in the near future.

Head of the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense, Laurynas Kasčiūnas, emphasized that Russia has demonstrated its ability to adapt to sanctions, which NATO had underestimated. Despite the imposed restrictions, Russia managed to transition its economy into a war footing, benefiting from its authoritarian regime, which minimizes societal concerns.

The Ukrainian national ice hockey team won the 2024 World Championship in Division IV, the third-highest ranking ice hockey team in the world.

🇬🇪President of Georgia believes that the "Russian" law on "foreign agents" is not the only problem in Georgia, another problem is the "Russian" government.
According to the president, the majority of the Georgian population is against such a policy. The head of state reminded that the ruling party has already adopted several controversial laws, in particular the law "which makes Georgia an offshore zone for Russian oligarchs who have come under sanctions".
It should be noted that earlier the President of Georgia vetoed the amendments related to the cancellation of tax on investments from offshore zones.

The U.S. is in talks with partners to lead a group of allies that will provide up to $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, — Bloomberg
The essence of the idea is that these funds will be returned at the expense of profits from Russian assets that have been frozen and on which interest is accruing. They are mainly in Europe.
The plan is being discussed among the G7 countries, with the U.S. pushing for an agreement when G7 leaders meet in Italy in June, according to people familiar with the proposal. According to them, discussions on the issue have been difficult and it could take months to reach an agreement.
Given the following:
▪️ due to the delay in providing aid, Russian troops increased the pressure and caused the threat of a breakthrough;
▪️ the U.S. presidential campaign, during which Trump stated that NATO countries should allocate at least 2% of GDP to the defense industry;
▪️and also Trump's statement that Europe should provide aid to Ukraine according to how much the US provides, Biden decided to strengthen his own position in this way and thereby increase aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine demands to exclude Russians and Belarusians from Olympic qualification
The President of the NOC of Ukraine Gutzeit, the Minister of Youth and Sports of Ukraine Bidnyy and the President of the Canoe Federation of Ukraine Slivinskyy sent a joint letter to the management of the IOC and the International Canoe Federation regarding the exclusion of Russian and Belarusian rowers from the Olympic qualifying selection in Hungary.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

A fire broke out at a chemical plant in Berlin, and part of the German capital was covered in toxic smoke
It was the Diehl Metal Applications plant, which refines and galvanizes metals. The nearest stores were closed and schoolchildren were sent home.
Diehl is the manufacturer of IRIS-T.

Ukraine has become increasingly interested in obtaining the MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance drone from the United States, moving it to the top of its wish list in recent months
Since the early days of the war, the MQ-9 Reaper has been a priority for Kyiv, as it sought to use them for strikes and surveillance. But Ukraine has recently dropped some of its intentions and is mainly interested in using the Reapers for reconnaissance only, according to four people familiar with the matter.
According to the newspaper, the United States is still hesitant to provide the MQ-9 Reaper because of fears that Russia could shoot it down. https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024/05/reaper-drones-move-to-the-top-of-ukraines-wish-list-00156109

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress delightful ducklings 💕 You have quite an extended and blended family there.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight that Russia’s main goal for 2024 remains the seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as Russian forces plan for their summer 2024 offensive operation.
• The first deliveries of resumed US military assistance reportedly arrived in Ukraine earlier this week, although it will likely take several additional weeks before Western weapons and ammunition arrive to frontline areas at scale.
• Ukrainian officials indicated that Russian forces in Ukraine have not significantly increased in size in recent months but that the Russian military continues to improve its fighting qualities overall despite suffering widespread degradation, especially among elite units since the start of the war.
• Ukrainian officials indicated that the Russian military will likely maintain its current personnel replacement rate and will not generate the significant number of available personnel needed to establish strategic-level reserves for larger-scale offensive operations in 2024.
• Pavlyuk stated that neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces will be able to achieve victory in Ukraine solely through attritional warfare – a consistent throughline that Ukrainian officials and military analysts have emphasized in recent months.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu issued a notably candid assessment of recent Russian advances in Ukraine and refrained from sweeping claims about the success of the Russian war effort, possibly in an attempt to temper domestic expectations about Russia’s near future successes in Ukraine ahead of the summer 2024 Russian offensive operation.
• A Russian insider source, who has routinely been accurate about past Russian military command changes, claimed on May 2 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has replaced several high-level Russian commanders in recent months.
• NATO stated on May 2 that it is “deeply concerned” about intensifying Russian hybrid operations on NATO member territory and that these operations constitute a threat to Allied security.
• UK Foreign Minister David Cameron announced the United Kingdom’s intent to provide long-term support for Ukraine and stated that Ukrainian forces can conduct long-range strikes within Russia with UK-provided weapons.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
• Rostec General Director Sergei Chemezov announced that Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec is increasing its production of all variants of guided glide bombs during a May 3 meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

Thank you! And multicultural too! Rouen (French originally I believe), Pekin (originally Chinese) and Muscovy (they're a lot nicer than the place they originated in, though ironically known to be a bit aggressive at times ...)

Does anyone know how to get a name change to stick? every time I try to update it, it says "User Name Saved Successfully" and then when I post it goes back to the old name automatically.

Is it only on this thread?

I was soooo grateful when MN introduced the feature which means that, whatever name you're logged in as, you'll automatically be offered that same name you've already used on any given thread.

I have multiple names on the go at once, for use in different topics, and was forever using the wrong name on the wrong thread.

I dont know actually. Don't often post elsewhere.

Canadian embassy in Bucharest. Guess whose embassy is next door...

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️FT: US aid to Ukraine will help Ukraine launch https://kyivindependent.com/ft-us-aid-to-ukraine-will-help-ukraine-launch-counteroffensive-in-2025-sullivan-says/ counteroffensive in 2025, Sullivan says.
Ukraine will look to launch a counteroffensive in 2025 with the support of the approved $61 billion aid package from the United States, as well as additional Western aid funding, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told the Financial Times on May 4.

⚡️BBC: Russia lures Cubans to army with offers of high pay, Russian passport.
Leaked documents reveal that Russia has been coercing Cuban citizens into the Russian Armed Forces with salaries of approximately $2,000 per month, in addition to offers of a Russian passports within months of signing up, a BBC investigation revealed on May 4. https://kyivindependent.com/bbc-russia-lures-cubans-to-army-with-offers-of-high-pay-russian-passport/

⚡️ Die Zeit: Data on Bundeswehr meetings were available online until https://kyivindependent.com/die-zeit-leaked-data-on-bundeswehrs-secret-online-meetings-was-available-online-until-may-3/ May 3.
Data on over 6,000 meetings held by Germany's Budeswehr was leaked and available online until May 3, according to the German media outlet Die Zeit.

⚡️Italian defense minister rules out sending troops to Ukraine says the discussion 'increases tensions.' https://kyivindependent.com/italian-defense-minister-rules-out-sending-troops-to-ukraine/

⚡️ Defense Ministry: Medical commission members can no longer use own discretion on conscripts' eligibility. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-medical-commission-members-wont-make-their-own-decisions-on-conscripts-eligibility/

⚡️Foreign Ministry: Reports about Zelensky's placement on Russian wanted list 'sign of desperation.
Russian propaganda media reports about Moscow allegedly placing President Volodymyr Zelensky on a wanted list is a "sign of desperation," Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said on May 4. https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministry-reports-about-zelenskys-placement-on-russian-wanted-list-sign-of-desperation/

Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 4 people, injure 19 over past day.
⚡️Russia attacks 13 communities in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast 214 times in 41 separate attacks throughout the day, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 4.
⚡️Governor: Russian missile attack on Odesa Oblast injures at least 3.
⚡️UPDATE: At least 6 injured in Russian missile strike on Kharkiv.
⚡️Russian drone attack on Kharkiv injures 6.
⚡️ Russian drone attack on Donetsk Oblast village injures 3 people.

⚡️Russian court sentences Ukrainian POW to 18 years in penal colony.
Vladyslav Plahotnyk was accused of "participation in a terrorist organization" and "training for terrorism," by being a member of the Azov battalion which Russia has declared a terrorist organization. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-sentences-ukrainian-pow-to-18-years-in-penal-colony/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• MAY 5, 2024

■ Fewer engagements & casualties; weekly casualties +23% ■ Fewer equipment losses, also adjustments to totals by GSUA ■ Improved strike ratios ■ Oryx: 51 🇷🇺 10 🇺🇦 net additions; 30-day ratio rises to 3.3x

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Financial Times reports that intelligence agencies across Europe are warning of potential sabotage orchestrated by the Kremlin, ranging from explosions and arson to targeting civilian infrastructure. These actions, it's noted, are being planned without regard for civilian casualties.
Several incidents have already been recorded:
▫️ Arson of a warehouse containing humanitarian aid for Ukraine in the UK.
▫️ A series of railway accidents in Sweden.
▫️ Attempted sabotage of railway signaling in the Czech Republic.
▫️ An attack on the car of the Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs.
▫️ Foiled plans for attacks on military and logistics facilities in Germany.

For the first time since Moscow initiated a full-scale attack on Ukraine over two years ago, the European Commission is poised to propose a ban on the resale of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in EU ports. However, the effectiveness of these sanctions is questioned, as they are expected to impact only a third of Russia's income in this sector and a fraction of its exports to the EU.
The proposed measures will also include restrictions on three future Russian LNG projects as part of the 14th package of Brussels sanctions. Without access to European ports for transshipment, Russia would be forced to rely on scarce icebreakers to transport LNG to Asia, resulting in a significant revenue loss.
However, critics argue that potential sanctions against Russian LNG projects are toothless, as none of them currently ship to Europe.
Despite the urgency, unanimity among all 27 EU member states is required to pass new LNG sanctions, making it susceptible to vetoes.

The Danish logistics company AP Moller-Maersk Group — one of the world's largest players in the field of container transportation — has resumed the liquidation of its Russian subsidiary Maersk LLC, — press service of AP Moller-Maersk Group.

EU allocates €4.5 million for 324 Ukrainian scientists' projects to pursue their research

⚡️Poland Expresses Solidarity with Czech Republic and Germany in Connection with Russian Cyber Attacks
The statement said that as a country that was one of the targets of the APT28 attacks, Poland "strongly condemns the repeated, unacceptable and malicious actions carried out by Russian actors in cyberspace."

British intelligence reports that Russia is preparing for its first mobilization in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region. This draft is seen as an attempt to address the Russian armed forces' need for additional personnel.

The US is producing sensors for Ukraine that will be able to hit Russian EWs and extended-range homing heads for JDAM-ER guided air bombs, — Defense Express. @MissConductUS @notimagain
The Pentagon announced the award of a $23.5 million contract to Scientific Applications and Research Associates (SARA). The contract provides for the acquisition of Home-on-GPS electronic warfare detection sensors and the integration of extended-range homing warheads on JDAM-ER guided air bombs.
These weapons will not only be able to resist the operation of EW equipment — they will also be able to target electronic warfare stations.
There is not much publicly available data on the Home-on-GPS (or HOJ) kits themselves. For the first time in 2018, the SARA company announced the creation and readiness to deliver kits for countering and defeating enemy EW assets, providing only the following details: the HOJ is compact enough, costs 10 times less than its predecessors, and its component base allows for easy integration into the guidance systems of any available high-precision air weapons.

Europeans should know that Russian troops will be on Poland's borders if Putin succeeds in Ukraine. Putin's Russia is an existential threat to all of us, — said the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, during a speech at Oxford University on the world security situation.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

European intelligence agencies warn https://www.ft.com/content/c88509f9-c9bd-46f4-8a5c-9b2bdd3c3dd3** governments that Russia is planning sabotage across the continent - Financial Times
One intelligence official said that Moscow's sabotage efforts should not be seen in isolation from other operations. He added that the increased activity reflects Russia's desire to exert maximum pressure "on all fronts."
According to him, Putin is now feeling "elated" and will try to push the demarcation lines in Europe as far as he can on several fronts: through disinformation, sabotage or hacking.

In Chasovyi Yar, 681 residents remain under round-the-clock shelling, no children among them, and the evacuation of the town continues
The local authorities emphasize that there is a possibility to evacuate the town, but only one person has left in the last week.

The Russian army hit Druzhkivka in Donetsk Oblast with a missile and killed a 46-year-old man, destroyed a house and a car.

💥 In the temporarily occupied Berdiansk, a car with an employee of a penal colony was blown up, he died on the spot, the Russian Investigative Service reported.

Over the two years of the war, Ukraine has received aid worth 259 billion euros

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-4-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces made a notable tactical advance northwest of Avdiivka near Arkhanhelske on the night of May 3 to 4, likely following a Ukrainian decision to withdraw from the area on May 3.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to portray its unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine as something other than what it is while continuing to assert the jurisdiction of Russian federal law over sovereign states.
• The Russian law enforcement conducted a search on May 4 of supporters of imprisoned Russian ultranationalist and former officer Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) in Tula Oblast, possibly in an attempt to set information conditions to ban the movement in Russia.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka and Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• The Kremlin is continuing its ongoing campaign to centralize control over Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) irregular forces by co-opting DNR commanders and officials.

@DancesWithDucks

These weapons will not only be able to resist the operation of EW equipment — they will also be able to target electronic warfare stations.
There is not much publicly available data on the Home-on-GPS (or HOJ) kits themselves.

Ah yes, good old Home on Jam (HOJ)…..

Any active jammer is almost by definition radiating a signal….so you build a system that can detect the jamming signal and then steer something towards it….

Been around for a long long time as a part of various missile systems, not heard of it being used in a bomb before but it makes sense.

Forces the other side either to switch their jammers off if they think they are under attack and/or change their jamming methods and tactics.

The Russian ones are good enough to make the ... eh, damn my memory ... GSDMs (?) near to useless aren't they :s

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Rheinmetall CEO promises https://kyivindependent.com/rheinmetall-ceo-promises-to-send-kyiv-hundreds-of-thousands-of-shells-this-year/ to send Kyiv 'hundreds of thousands' of shells this year, including prototypes of artillery shells with a range of 100 kilometers, CEO Armin Papperger said.

Ukraine war latest: US aid will help launch counteroffensive in 2025, Sullivan says
Ukraine will look to launch a counteroffensive in 2025 with the support of the approved $61 billion aid package from the United States, as well as additional Western funding, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told the Financial Times on May 4. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-may-4-5-2024/

China wants to work with France and the rest of the international community to end the war in Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly told French media outlet Le Figaro on May 5. https://kyivindependent.com/media-chinese-leader-wants-to-work-with-international-community-to-end-war-in-ukraine/ [What, by increasing further the amount of Chinese aid to Russia so it can win?]

⚡️Top Democrat in Congress says https://kyivindependent.com/top-democrat-in-congress-says-pro-putin-faction-of-republicans-stalled-ukraine-aid/ 'Pro-Putin faction' of Republicans stalled Ukraine aid.
U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said the months-long delay in aid to Ukraine was the result of the "growing pro-(Russian President Vladimir) Putin faction in the Republican Party," in an interview with 60 Minutes released on May 5.

⚡️Russia will hold drills to practice the usage of tactical nuclear weapons to counter what it referred to as "provocative statements and threats from certain Western officials," Russia's Defense Ministry said on May 6. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-to-hold-tactical-nuclear-weapons-drills-amid-threats-by-certain-western-officials/

⚡️Energy Minister: Russian attacks https://kyivindependent.com/energy-minister-russian-attacks-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-cause-over-1-billion-in-damage/ on Ukraine's energy infrastructure cause over $1 billion in damage.

⚡️Media: Finland considers building https://kyivindependent.com/media-finland-considers-building-factory-urgently-due-to-lack-of-tnt-amid-war-in-ukraine/ TNT factory in response to war in Ukraine.
The Finnish government is considering building a domestic TNT factory in the short term due to the critical shortage of explosives amid Russia's war in Ukraine, Finnish media outlet Yle reported, citing the country's defense minister Antti Hakkanen.

⚡️Czechia, Estonia will not attend Putin's inauguration https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-estonia-say-they-will-not-attend-putins-inauguration-on-may-7/ on May 7.
Russia's most recent presidential election was internationally recognized as rigged by the Kremlin. Estimates of vote rigging range from at least 22 million votes to about 31.6 million votes, without taking into account the online voting and the election at gunpoint in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.

Switzerland has invited Pope Francis to attend the upcoming global peace summit dedicated to ending the war in Ukraine, Swiss President Viola Amherd said on May 5. https://kyivindependent.com/switzerland-invites-pope-to-global-peace-summit/

The EU executive body is proposing that the Voice of Europe media outlet be added to the upcoming 14th round of EU sanctions against Russia, the Vice-President of the European Commission, Vera Jourova, said on May 5, as reported by European Pravda. https://kyivindependent.com/european-commission-looks-to-sanction-voice-of-europe-media-outlet/

⚡️Russian attacks across https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-2-injure-27-over-past-day/ Ukraine kill 2, injure 27 over past day
⚡️Russian glide bomb attack injures 15 in downtown Kharkiv.
Russia uses laser-guided or satellite-guided KAB bombs, with payloads ranging from 250 to 1,500 kilograms, against Ukrainian military and civilian targets. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-guided-bomb-attack-injures-10-in-downtown-kharkiv/
⚡️Official: Russia hits power plant in Donetsk Oblast.
⚡️Russian attacks in Kharkiv Oblast kill 1, injure 2.
⚡️Russian forces attack energy infrastructure in Sumy Oblast.
⚡️Russia attacks 6 communities in Sumy Oblast.

⚡️Russia claims 6 killed, 35 injured in drone attack on Belgorod Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-6-killed-33-injured-in-drone-attack-on-belgorod-oblast/
⚡️Military intelligence: Ukraine destroys Russian fast attack craft in occupied Crimea. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-ukraine-destroys-russian-speedboat-in-occupied-crimea/

⚡️Military intelligence confirms https://kyivindependent.com/military-intel-confirms-car-bomb-attack-killed-russian-official-supervising-torture-chambers-in-berdiansk/ car bomb attack killing Russian organizer of torture chambers in Berdiansk, Yevgeniy Ananievsky.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• MAY 6, 2024

■ Combat engagements above 7-day average, 1k+ casualties ■ Equipment losses slightly above average; notable drone losses ■ Massive 🇷🇺 strikes but 🇺🇦 ones also well above average ■ Poternet: +807 🇷🇺 names added to database

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Bundeswehr has released a report detailing the training of Ukrainian personnel on Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers in Germany.
This training is being conducted as part of the European Union Military Assistance Mission in Ukraine (EUMAM UA), aimed at providing assistance to Ukraine.
The training program includes hands-on field shooting exercises, as well as theoretical instruction and simulation training, all conducted in collaboration with NATO instructors.

If the time comes for this, we will be absolutely grateful, — Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal on the possibility of assistance from NATO troops to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Speaking to CBC journalists, the Prime Minister noted that direct military assistance to the alliance would, of course, help repel the enemy, but at the moment Ukraine is asking its partners only for weapons and military equipment.

The range of ballistic missiles of the Russian Federation threatens European security, therefore it is impossible to set limits on military support to Ukraine, — said French President Emmanuel Macron in an interview with the newspaper La Tribune Dimanche.

The enemy scraps the remains of the Avdiivka coke-chemical plant, — the Center of the National Resistance.
"The scrap will be taken to the port of Mariupol. Of course, the proceeds from the sale will go to Denis Pushylin's companies," the CNS reports.

Putin fed former Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi the heart of a freshly killed deer, — Corriere della Sera
The ex-senator from Berlusconi's party, Chiquitto, spoke about it. According to him, Putin invited Berlusconi to hunt, where he killed two roe deer, and then went down the hill, holding a knife, cut one of them and removed the heart, declaring: "This will be a great meal." Berlusconi hid behind a tree and threw up. [Berlesconi failed that test in at least two ways, if this is true]

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇸NATO members are discussing "red lines" that could trigger the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine
According to the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2024/05/05/news/nato_intervento_diretto_ucraina_russia-422824403/?ref=RHLF-BG-P2-S1-T1 which is still the only source of such information, the discussions are confidential, without clear operational plans, but define two types of emergency developments.
The first "red line" is Belarus' participation in the war or Russian troops breaking through Ukrainian defense from its territory. The second is a "military provocation" by Russia against the Baltic states, Poland, or a targeted attack on Moldova.

Russians hit Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant with 5 missiles
The shelling damaged a number of facilities at the plant. There were no casualties as a result of the shelling

Ukrainian man who was drafted into the Russian army from an occupied territory ended up shooting 6 Russian occupiers to death
The Russians are now furious and are searching for him.