Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Returning to the orange one’s quest for reelection, I think his rather explicit and somewhat genocidal comments on Gaza are likely to go against him (for context I believe they were along the lines of ‘let’s just finish them off’) Particularly with regards to encouraging the cohort of voters seeking to punish Biden for his pro-Israel stance to stay home (which Trump needs).

That could be, but Gaza will hardly appear on the radar regarding issues that will drive voting.

Seven issues that will define the 2024 election

I still think we should agree with Trump that he won the last election. He's served his two terms and is no longer eligible to stand.

That may be true but the more groups Trump alienates the better and for some, particularly Muslim and other minority groups, his position on Gaza will be what turns them off.

That may be true but the more groups Trump alienates the better and for some, particularly Muslim and other minority groups, his position on Gaza will be what turns them off.

Trump's genius at alienating voters he needs certainly works against him, but after his attempts to ban travel to the US by anyone from a predominantly Muslim country, he likely has few Muslim supporters to lose. He's doing surprisingly well among Hispanics, who are likely not paying much attention to Gaza.

Trump leads Biden among Hispanics, registered voters overall: poll

What a choice. An old man who appears to be losing his marbles vs an almost-as-old man who never had any marbles to begin with.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine destroyed the Project 22160 Sergei Kotov large patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) off the coast of the Kerch Strait on the night of March 4-5.
• Russian milbloggers responded to the sinking of the Sergei Kotov by decrying the Russian military command’s lack of response to the incident and mounting a wider critique against the bureaucratic inertia of the Russian military apparatus.
• Russian aircraft appear to be continuing to conduct a relatively high volume of glide bomb strikes in Ukraine despite Ukrainian officials’ reports that Ukrainian forces have downed several bomber aircraft in recent weeks.
• Russia and China are deepening their strategic space cooperation, including cooperation on satellite surveillance and space exploration.
• The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for two senior Russian commanders for their responsibility in perpetrating Russian war crimes – the first time the ICC has charged Russian military commanders.
• Russian forces are reportedly operating a “black market” to sell Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), including to Russian paramilitary groups that may be conducting their own POW exchanges with Ukraine.
• The director of the Moldovan Intelligence and Security Service, Alexandru Musteata, stated on March 5 that the Kremlin has begun to conduct multi-year hybrid operations aimed at destabilizing Moldova and preventing its accession to the EU.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 5.
• Russian authorities are reportedly disbanding elements of the former Wagner Group that were supposed to join Rosgvardia or are currently in Belarus.
• Russian law enforcement is likely intensifying crackdowns against Crimean Tatars in occupied Crimea.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian soldiers near Kupiansk prepare for potential Russian offensive https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-soldiers-near-kupiansk-prepare-for-looming-russian-offensive/

Ukrainian troops are building fortifications in expectation of a Russian offensive in the spring, though some worry that the progress is not fast enough, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on March 7, citing Western officials and Ukrainian soldiers. https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-slow-progress-on-ukraines-fortifications-ahead-of-expected-russian-offensive/

⚡️ Lithuanian intelligence: Russia can fight Ukraine 'at a similar intensity' for at least 2 years. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-russia-can-fight-ukraine-for-at-least-2-years-lithuanian-intelligence-says/ High oil prices, military industry investments, and sanctions circumvention give Russia enough resources to continue the war against Ukraine at a similar intensity for at least two years

⚡️Military: Ukraine aims https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukraine-aims-to-stabilize-situation-on-front-line-conduct-counteroffensive-in-2024/ to stabilize front line, conduct counteroffensive in 2024.

⚡️ Official: Ukraine open to restrictions on EU trade https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-minister-ukraine-ready-to-accept-restrictions-on-trade-with-eu/ to defuse tensions.
Kyiv is open to trade restrictions with the EU to defuse tensions with Warsaw but urges bloc-wide import bans on Russian grain, Ukraine's Deputy Economy Minister and Trade Representative Taras Kachka told the Financial Times (FT) in a comment published on March 6.

⚡️Nikki Haley exits https://kyivindependent.com/nikki-haley-exits-republican-presidential-race/ Republican presidential race, ceding nomination to Trump.

⚡️Bloomberg: Biden considers https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-biden-administration-considers-tapping-into-us-army-funds-for-temporary-ukraine-aid/ tapping into US Army funds for temporary Ukraine aid.
Drawing on the Pentagon reserves would free up about $200 million in immediate military assistance to Ukraine while Congress lags in approving aid.

⚡️ Cameron: London ready to loan Ukraine all frozen Russian assets https://kyivindependent.com/cameron-london-ready-to-loan-ukraine-all-frozen-russian-assets-in-uk/ in UK on the basis that Moscow will be forced to pay reparations to Ukraine after the all-out war, the Guardian reported.

⚡️ Media: NATO headquarters to fly Sweden's flag https://kyivindependent.com/media-sweden-to-officially-become-nato-member-on-march-11/ on March 11 signifying the official start of the country's membership in the alliance.

⚡️Bloomberg: Ukraine’s allies have almost finished https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-ukraines-allies-have-almost-finished-allocating-funds-to-purchase-shells-through-czech-led-allied-initiative/ collecting funds to purchase shells through Czech-led allied initiative.

⚡️Media: Czech arms company plans to invest https://kyivindependent.com/czech-company-invest-hundreds-of-millions/ 'hundreds of millions' in Ukrainian defense.
Czech arms company Czechoslovak Group (CSG) plans to invest "hundreds of millions of euros" in Ukraine to boost its supply of ammunition and equipment, according to Bloomberg and Reuters on March 7.

MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak: Developments in Ukraine’s parliament on economic reforms, international obligations https://kyivindependent.com/mp-yaroslav-zhelezniak-developments-in-ukraines-parliament-on-economic-reforms-international-obligations-issue-45/ — Issue 45

⚡️ Bloomberg: EU to propose new sanctions against Russia https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-eu-to-propose-new-sanctions-against-russia-over-navalnys-death/ over Navalny's death.

WSJ: Ukrainian commandos fight Russian influence in Sudan. https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-ukrainian-commandos-fight-russian-influence-in-sudan/
Small Ukrainian army teams took part in hostilities in Sudan, helping the country's leader fend off Wagner Group-backed rebel forces, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 6, citing Ukrainian and Sudanese military officials.

Multiple cases of Indian men coming to Russia for work or tourism before being coerced to join the war against Ukraine and, in some cases, dying in battle have appeared in the media in the past few days. https://kyivindependent.com/media-indian-men-allegedly-tricked-coerced-into-fighting-for-russia/

[a man who's fighting in Ukraine told me that 15,000 Nepalese are fighting -for- Russia :s]

⚡️ Russian media: Belarusian man planning 'terrorist act' https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-belarusian-man-planning-terrorist-act-killed-by-fsb-in-russia/ killed by FSB in Russia.
A Belarusian man who was planning an "act of terrorism" was shot and killed by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) in the Russian republic of Karelia on March 7, the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti claimed, citing the FSB's press service.

⚡️Chinese foreign minister claims https://kyivindependent.com/chinese-foreign-minister/ China is 'force for peace,' praises Russia-China relations. [I'm sure Tibet and Taiwan would agree]

⚡️Exiled official: Russian election organizer killed in explosion in occupied Berdiansk. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-election-organizer-killed-in-explosion-berdiansk/

⚡️Border guards stop https://kyivindependent.com/border-guards-stop-russian-sabotage-group-in-sumy-oblast/ Russian sabotage group in Sumy Oblast.

⚡️Hungarian FM: Orban to discuss https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-fm-orban-plans-to-discuss-peace-in-ukraine-with-trump/ 'achieving peace in Ukraine' with Trump during upcoming visit. [It's been said that Trump plans to stop all aid to Ukraine immediately. Not confirmed though]

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAR 7, 2024
■ Fewer strikes reported, more combat engagements
■ Record 7-day equipment & vehicle losses; equipment losses up 45% between weeks
■ Artillery losses also at a 7-day record level, air defence systems at a 7-day record level for 2024
■ Casualties stay above 7-day average; weekly losses up 18% between weeks

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Germany joins the Czech initiative to purchase 800,000 shells for Ukraine outside the EU. The press secretary of the government of Germany stated that the country will give "a three-digit million sum" for this.

Bulgaria is set to dispatch 110 TAB-71M armored personnel carriers and 122 mm self-propelled howitzers 2C1 "Gvozdika" to Ukraine, as reported by local journalist Tsvetan Aleksandrov.

India has declined to finalize contracts with "Rosneft" due to sanctions, as reported by Bloomberg.
"Rosneft" was unsuccessful in securing long-term contracts with major Indian oil refineries for the purchase of 500,000 barrels per day, which is equivalent to a third of India's daily import volume.
While Russia remains India's largest oil supplier, there are indications that refiners are increasing their purchases from other producers, including Saudi Arabia.

North Korea has handed over 1.5 million artillery shells to Russia, but half of them are either unusable or need at least a thorough inspection — The Times.
...these shells were manufactured in the 70s and 80s. Half of them do not work, and the rest need to be either repaired or tested before use.
North Korea is giving away old things... North Korea is increasing domestic production and asking for certain technologies in exchange, particularly missile and submarine technologies, to develop its own defense industry.

As a result of the Russian attack on Odesa, 5 people were killed, stated Navy Speaker Dmytro Pletenchuk in his comments to Ukrainian mass media.
He reported that the enemy targeted the city's port infrastructure.

The Swiss Parliament has urged the government to intensify its efforts in clearing mines in Ukraine.

RECOVERY, a national network of rehabilitation centers for wounded military personnel, has expanded its operations with the opening of innovative centers in Cherkassy and Khmelnytskyi.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland help Russia circumvent sanctions more than other European countries. They have maintained exports to Russia at the level of 2017-2018.
The conclusions were reached by Robin Brooks, chief economist at the IIF.

India has declined to finalize contracts with "Rosneft" due to sanctions, as reported by Bloomberg.
"Rosneft" was unsuccessful in securing long-term contracts with major Indian oil refineries for the purchase of 500,000 barrels per day, which is equivalent to a third of India's daily import volume.
While Russia remains India's largest oil supplier, there are indications that refiners are increasing their purchases from other producers, including Saudi Arabia.

This is pretty positive news. India's influence, particularly in the Global South, shouldn't be underestimated.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

IAEA Director General Grossi said he held an "important" meeting with Putin in Sochi on Wednesday to discuss the occupied ZNPP and ways to ensure its safety.

🇵🇱Polish farmers' protest in Warsaw escalates into clashes
During the farmers' rally near the Polish Sejm building, riots, scuffles and acts of aggression occurred. After 14:00, the demonstrators began throwing cobblestones at the police, who responded with tear gas.
Some protesters tried to force their way into the parliament.

🇺🇸Tomorrow, the US Congress may start https://www.holosameryky.com/a/kongres-golosuvannya-v-obhid-spikera/7516292.html** collecting signatures to put the Ukraine aid bill to a vote in the US House of Representatives, bypassing Speaker Mike Johnson.
The process will begin if Johnson does not bring the bill to the floor himself by then.

🇸🇰🇨🇿 Slovak Prime Minister Fico said https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/HbYsqjx/cesky-premier-reaguje-na-roberta-fica-pozicia-jeho-vlady-tak-trochu-nahrava-zaujmom-putina/ that the Czech side had paused intergovernmental consultations with Bratislava because of the different views of the Czech Republic and Slovakia on Russia's war against Ukraine.

Russian channels published an alleged battle between the crew of the large amphibious assault ship Caesar Kunikov and Ukrainian naval drones.
It allegedly lasted 40 minutes. The video shows explosions from the drones hitting the sides. Eventually, the ship was destroyed. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/18825 [date unsure]

Security Service of Ukraine presents an updated "Sea Baby" maritime drone, named "Avdiivka"
"Sea Baby", produced in 2024, is a new generation drone. Security Service engineers have made it even more deadly for the enemy. Now it can deliver an explosive "greeting" to the Russians weighing more than 1 ton over a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers. As a multi-purpose platform, it can change the type of weapons depending on the combat mission. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/18818

Question of the day: where did the Czech Republic find these 800,00 shells?😏

The oldest traces of human existence in Europe have been discovered in Ukraine
Primitive stone tools were found in the Zakarpattia village of Korolevo back in the 1980s, but they could not be dated at the time. Now, thanks to the latest technology, scientists have managed to establish the age of the artifacts - 1.4 million years.
Most likely, representatives of Homo erectus lived on the territory of Ukraine at that time. This may confirm the theory that Homo erectus inhabited Europe from east to west - from the Caucasus through the Carpathians.
The study was published https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00627-2 in the scientific journal Nature.

Zakharova threatened strikes on Northern Europe
If nuclear facilities appear in the countries of Northern Europe, they will become legitimate targets in case of war between Russia and NATO, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.

In today's course of Putin's history, Belgium appeared as an independent country thanks to Russia [actually it's a little known fact that Russia settled the US first and gave it up out of the goodness of its heart, Russia founded the Greek City States and Aztecs, and it might even have reshaped Pangea into separate lands)

The Ukrainian warrior and his furry comrade wish you a great Thursday✌️

Countries really are pouring investment and support into Ukraine, both military and economic.

This news about the Czech company investing hundreds of millions into Ukraine's defense and artillery is excellent.

"Czech arms company Czechoslovak Group (CSG) plans to invest "hundreds of millions of euros" in Ukraine to boost its supply of ammunition and equipment, according to Bloomberg and Reuters on March 7.
CSG is in talks with state-owned enterprise Ukrainian Defense Industry (UkrOboronProm) on a potential joint venture, billionaire owner Michal Strnad told journalists on March 6.
Like Rheinmetall, Strnad said CSG was looking for sites in Ukraine to manufacture artillery, tank shells, and heavy equipment. According to Bloomberg, CSG is already building new production facilities in Czechia to meet growing demand.
Though the plans are ambitious, Reuters said they would not be an "immediate fix" to Ukraine's current shell shortage.
There are two to three projects under discussion for joint ventures, the agreement for which "will probably be done this year," Reuters quoted Strnad. It will then take another "two to three years" for production.
CSG already produces ammunition, Tatra trucks, and armored vehicles, as well as modernizes Soviet T72 tanks for Ukraine.
The company has set around 150 pieces of equipment to Ukraine, funded by other EU or NATO countries, since the start of the full-scale invasion, Strnad told reporters.
Europe has "very limited capacities" in terms of artillery and tank ammunition, Strnad said.
Czech President Petr Pavel said in February at the Munich Conference that Prague had found 500,000 155 mm shells and 300,000 122 mm shells outside Europe that could be sent to Ukraine within weeks if the necessary funds were allocated to the initiative.
Countries including the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and Canada have already publicly committed to the Czech-led initiative, and are reportedly close to raising the required funding to buy 800,000 artillery shells."

President of Moldova states that Russia is attempting a coup according to @jayinkyiv

This thread getting a lot of traction:

x.com/mij_europe/status/1765760401378033954?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

Macron today produced maps of a poss Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv or Odessa which could oblige the west to act to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. In talks w French opposition leaders, Macron said there should be no more “red lines” on Fr involvement in the conflict 1/

.@EmmanuelMacron summoned leaders of all French parliamentary parties to talks at the Elysée Palace to explain his controversial remarks last week in which he said the deployment of western troops in Ukraine should no longer be excluded 2/

Participants in the meeting said Macron had explained his theory of “strategic ambivalence” – keeping Moscow guessing. Since Vladimir Putin clearly knew no limits, he said, the West had been handing him an advantage by fixing or “interiorising” limits of its own /3

But Opposition leaders of the Far Right, Right and Left said they had been left worried and unconvinced by Macron’s approach (which has also been rejected by the US, UK, Germany and several other Nato countries) /4

Jordan Bardella, the president and de facto Number Two of Marine Le Pen's @MLP_officiel far right Rassemblement National, said threatening to send French soldiers “to fight a Nuclear power like Russia is irresponsible and extremely dangerous for world peace” /5

The Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel said that he feared that Macron was “ready to engage in a bellicose escalation which would be very dangerous” /6

Today’s meeting was the prelude to a two day parliamentary debate next week to discuss a ten year defence pact signed by Macron and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr @ZelenskyyUa last month 7/

Macron told French journalists on Wednesday that he hoped this debate would “make it clear” which political forces in France supported Ukraine and which supported Russia 8/

Elysée officials deny domestic politics & June EU elex have influenced Macron’s new rhetoric on Ukraine. They say he is driven by the difficult situation on front line, Navalny's murder & Kremlin talk of a possible attempt on his own life when he visits Kyiv later this month 9/

Macron is, however, evidently hoping the new rhetoric will embarrass Le Pen, who had a long history of Putin worship before the Ukr invasion. The Govt spokeswoman, Prisca Thevenot, says it is “quite evident” that Le Pen, unlike Macron, is not “committed to Russia’s defeat” ENDS

Cameron being good again: x.com/vonderburchard/status/1765771556347588807?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

Ukraine preparing to lose more ground 🙁
Talk of these 800,000 shells has been going on for weeks. I'm feeling so frustrated, I can only imagine what Ukrainians are feeling.

From the Kyiv Independent

⚡️Governor announces mandatory evacuation from near Kupiansk.

Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov announced on March 7 that local authorities would conduct mandatory evacuation of residents living in communities near Kupiansk.

All residents will be evacuated from 57 settlements, Syniehubov said. All children along with a parent or legal guardian will be evacuated from 18 settlements in Velykoburlutska and Vilkhuvatska communities.

My heart is breaking and continues to break, Surplus. But we must not give up hope because Ukraine is not.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-6-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated on March 6 that Ukraine will try to seize the initiative and conduct unspecified counteroffensive actions in 2024.
• Russian forces conducted a relatively larger series of drone and missile strikes targeting Ukraine on the night of March 5 to 6 and on March 6, including strikes on Odesa City during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
• Kremlin officials continue to invoke nuclear threats as part of ongoing Russian information operations aimed at weakening Western support for Ukraine and deterring Western aid to Ukraine.
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the security of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and nuclear non-proliferation issues on March 6 in Sochi, Russia.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the governor of pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, on March 6 and emphasized Russia’s support for Gagauzia.
• Moldova suspended the Cold War-era Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty on March 6.
• The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly conducted a drone strike on a mining and processing plant in Kursk Oblast on March 6.
• Armenia appears to be taking limited measures to reduce its bilateral security cooperation with Russia outside of its reduced participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Russian legal system continues efforts to use the Russian criminal justice system to augment Russia’s recruitment base.

What do we make of Zaluzhnyi’s new appointment as Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UK? It’s certainly a safer job…

I think it’s great. He is a well known, inspirational thinker who seems very good at getting people on board.

Would be great to have Zaluzhnyi around (I am a fan) just that I thought people get posted as Ambassador in another country to take them out of the center of action and prevent them from making trouble.

UK would be a cushy appointment as opposed to say Poland.

Agree with @blueshoes

Well Biden seemed to be more on his game than I've seen him in a long while during the State of the Nation address. @MissConductUS really keen to know what your thoughts are?

On the plus side, he did come across as energetic and focused, which, at least in the short term, will help him on the age issue.

On the other hand, it was a campaign stump speech, not a State of the Union address, which is typically far less partisan and includes at least a rhetorical attempt to reach across the aisle to the other party. By equating the Republicans to the Russians as a threat to democracy, he's made it harder for Republicans who support aid for Ukraine to push back against Trump, who wants to block it.

He had a long list of things he wanted to spend more money on, but defense wasn't included, despite our need to ramp up defense-related production capacity. It also devolved into a long list of his political enemies - landlords, big corporations, the rich, etc. It may rally his base, but it did nothing to appeal to Nikki Haley supporters or Republicans who don't want to see Trump reelected.

So on the substance, it wasn't what I was hoping for. And starting almost half an hour late wasn't great either.

Sunak's pre-election budget has no increase in UK defence spending <head in hands>

https://www.ft.com/content/8796d373-11b1-40bf-acfc-f36a3afa9579

Financial Times: UK military has ‘no credible’ funding plan, MPs warn. Armed forces will be forced to cut some programmes unless defence spending is increased, committee finds.
...
The committee said the Ministry of Defence faced a £17bn deficit in its plans to equip the military over the next 10 years and warned that this figure could grow by another £12bn — a shortfall that MPs said left the UK in an “alarming place”.

The report added that the MoD’s approach to closing this funding gap rested on hopes that the UK government would hit its “long term aspiration” of spending 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product on defence annually even though there is “no guarantee on whether this will happen”.

UK defence spending is currently just under 2.3 per cent of GDP once military aid to Ukraine is included and the government has said it will only increase to 2.5 per cent “if fiscal and economic circumstances allow”. <not happening>