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Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

989 replies

MagicFox · 25/01/2024 13:25

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
221
Igotjelly · 29/02/2024 10:00

I think I listen to Mark too much, I find myself reading the Tweets in his voice 😂

Goldenbear · 29/02/2024 10:08

Doesn't the speech go on for hours?

MagicFox · 29/02/2024 10:24

Hope not, I'm flagging

OP posts:
Goldenbear · 29/02/2024 10:31

That's what the news presenter said on BBC 2, so yes, back to work with background noise that is not as intrusive.

DancesWithDucks · 29/02/2024 11:06

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ EU Council gives final approval to 50 billion euros https://kyivindependent.com/eu-council-approves-50-billion-aid-package-for-ukraine/ in financing for Ukraine.

⚡️ CNN: Pentagon considers tapping into remaining $4 billion https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-pentagon-considers-sending-remaining-4-billion-in-aid-funds-to-ukraine/ in Ukraine defense aid fund. [@MissConductUS pointed out this would have operational implications for the US]

⚡️ Finance minister: Ukraine needs $3 billion per month https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-needs-3-billion-per-month/ in financial aid in 2024.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that Moscow would "consider with attention" the appeal of authorities from the Moscow-controlled Moldovan region of Transnistria for "protection," the Russian state-controlled media RBC wrote on Feb. 28. https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-to-consider-transnistrias-protection-appeal-russias-foreign-ministry-claims/

⚡️Congress reaches deal to avert government shutdown with no plans for Ukraine aid https://kyivindependent.com/congress-reaches-government-shutdown-with-no-plans-for-ukraine-aid/

⚡️McConnell's exit signals shift in Republican support for Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/mcconnells-exit-signals-shift-in-republican-support-for-ukraine/ McConnell, a prominent advocate for aiding Kyiv against Russian aggression, has played a pivotal role in securing military assistance and funding, Politico reports.

⚡️ Tusk: Poland in talks with Ukraine on temporarily closing border https://kyivindependent.com/tusk-poland-ukraine-discuss-temporarily-closing-border/ for trade. Poland leads talks with Ukraine on the temporary closure of their mutual border for trade, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Feb. 28, stressing that such a solution would be "painful for both parties," RMF24 reported.
"We want to help Ukraine, but we cannot allow this assistance to have such negative consequences for our citizens"

Russian troops keep conducting "human wave" assaults without using armored vehicles in the village of Krynky in Kherson oblast, Nataliia Humeniuk, a spokesperson of Ukraine's Southern Operational Command, said on Feb. 28 on national television. https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-continues-using-human-wave-attacks-in-kherson-oblast/

⚡️Navalny's funeral https://kyivindependent.com/navalnys-funeral-to-be-held-in-moscow-on-march-1/ to be held in Moscow on March 1.
The funeral will take place at 2 p.m., but Navalny’s spokesperson Kira Yarmysh advised those who wanted to come to arrive earlier. Yarmysh said on Feb. 27 that almost all funeral agencies and funeral venues in Moscow had refused to host a public farewell for Navalny.

⚡️ Turkey offers to again host Russia-Ukraine peace talks. https://kyivindependent.com/turkey-offers-to-again-host-russia-ukraine-peace-talks/

⚡️ Bulgarian defense minister: Bulgaria to send [the long delayed] 100 armored vehicles https://kyivindependent.com/bulgarian-defense-minister-bulgaria-to-send-ukraine-100-armored-vehicles-in-a-few-days/ to Ukraine 'in few days.'

⚡️ Belgium pledges $216 million https://kyivindependent.com/belgium-pledges-216-million-to-czech-ammunition-initiative-for-ukraine/ to Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine.

⚡️ Zelensky proposes Ukraine-Balkans defense industry forum. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-proposes-ukraine-balkans-defense-industry-forum/

Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, reported a cyberattack against its official website on Feb. 28, publishing a statement on Telegram. https://kyivindependent.com/parliaments-website-reportedly-hit-by-cyberattack/

⚡️ Media: Former chairman of the board of Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) Yevhen Kravtsov has been in charged in connection to an embezzlement case of Hr 11.4 million (around $300,000), Ukrainska Pravda and Forbes Ukraine reported on Feb. 28, citing their sources. https://kyivindependent.com/media-ex-chair-of-ukrainian-railways-charged-with-embezzlement/

‘Shock therapy:’ War tourism in Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/war-tourism-in-ukraine-attracts-foreigners-to-see-scars-of-russia-invasion/ attracts foreigners to see scars of Russia's invasion
The Kyiv local, who works for Capital Tours, saw an opportunity to utilize his decade-long experience as a guide to inform foreigners about Russia’s brutal invasion and raise money for the war effort.
He crafted an emotional route through the Kyiv suburbs of Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel, and Bordyanka telling intricate stories of Russia’s attempt to capture the capital and the brutal occupation.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 29, 2024
■ Increasedstrikes, all strike indicators above 7-day average
■ Landbased equipment losses 51% above average, casualties 24% above
■ Tank losses at 2024 record, 10 air defence systems destroyed in a week

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
DancesWithDucks · 29/02/2024 11:22

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

According to the Financial Times, Russia is prepared to utilize nuclear weapons early in a conflict with a major global power or if it suffers a loss of 20% of its submarines
Classified Russian military documents obtained by journalists reveal that Moscow's criteria for using tactical nuclear weapons are much lower than publicly stated by Russian officials.
In one exercise scenario involving a potential invasion by China, Russia, referred to as the "Northern Federation," considers responding with a tactical nuclear strike to the second wave of a Chinese army offensive.
The documents outline additional criteria for potential nuclear weapon use, including enemy landings on Russian territory, defeats of border protection units, or imminent enemy attacks using conventional weapons.
Thresholds for action may involve a combination of factors leading to irreversible losses for Russian forces, such as significant troop casualties or substantial damage to military assets.
Despite the age of these documents, experts suggest they remain pertinent to Russian military doctrine.

John Kirby, a spokesperson for the US National Security Council, warned that without prompt US support, Russia could seize additional territories in Ukraine within a month or two.
Addressing remarks made by Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, who indicated that he would prioritize financing for Ukraine "in a timely manner" but only after resolving the crisis on the Mexican border, Kirby emphasized the urgency of aid. "When you talk about 'timely' assistance, what does that mean? For Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines, 'timely' means now. As we return from the weekend, the Russians have begun seizing new towns and villages in Ukraine. Their advance continues; this is not a stagnant conflict," Kirby emphasized.

Zelenskyy spoke with the President of Moldova about the events in Transnistria
Separately, Zelenskyy and Sandu considered the operation of transport corridors for the export of Ukrainian products through the territory of Moldova.
The parties also discussed the integration of Ukraine and Moldova into the EU and agreed on "further mutual support and coordination of efforts" on the way to membership

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk rebuked his Slovak counterpart, Robert Fico, at the Visegrad Four meeting in Prague, following Fico's criticism of military aid to Ukraine, according to Bloomberg.

Forbes suggests that the recent successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in shooting down Russian aircraft may be attributed to the deployment of Patriot and NASAMS missiles, as well as exploiting blind spots created by the loss of A-50 aircraft.

Prime Minister of North Macedonia Jaferi and Zelenskyy signed a joint declaration on support for the Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine. The declaration establishes North Macedonia's support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations and the invitation of our country to NATO "when the conditions are right".

Prime Minister Pashinyan explained what the actual freezing of Armenia’s participation in the CSTO means. According to him, this is the absence of a permanent representative at the organization, as well as the non-participation of Armenian representatives in events at a high and senior level

⚡️Ukraine has secured a financial boost of $760 million from Japan and Norway. The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine has confirmed that these funds will be allocated to alleviate non-security and defense-related expenses of the state budget. Specifically, the funds will contribute to various essential areas such as pension payments, salaries for employees of the State Emergency Service, and remuneration for teachers.

Budanov warns that if the Russian Federation doesn't face internal challenges, the events of February 24, 2022, may recur. He stresses the urgency of establishing a new framework for international security.

LP apologized to Ukrainians for the video where they thanked the fans of the Russian Federation for the hoodie with the Russian flag on it.

Weekdays of Ukrainian infantry soldiers.

Five more children were returned from the temporarily occupied Kherson region to the Ukrainian-controlled territory: two girls and three boys.
"These are children aged 4 to 16, including one orphan. Now they are in a safe place, doctors and psychologists are working with them," said Prokudin, head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration.

DancesWithDucks · 29/02/2024 11:38

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Elon Musk continues to push pro-Russian narratives

⚡️⚡️⚡️Today, around 9:00 a.m., two more occupiers' Su-34s were destroyed in the Avdiivka and Mariupol directions.
This means that 12 Russian aircraft were shot down in 10 days!

🇹🇷Erdogan again offers https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkiye-ready-to-again-host-peace-negotiations-between-russia-ukraine-president-erdogan/3150287 Ukraine and Russia "peace talks" in Istanbul
Erdogan emphasized Türkiye's support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, as well as its desire to protect "the rights and interests of our Crimean Tatar compatriots."
The Turkish President called for joint work to "define the general parameters of peace" and assured that in this regard, Ankara "fundamentally supports" the "peace formula" proposed by Ukraine.

Speakers from 23 parliaments have appealed to the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Johnson, urging him to consider the bill passed by the Senate, which provides for the allocation of $60 billion to Ukraine, the Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament Stefanchuk said.

The Thitd Assault Brigade drove the occupiers out of Krasnohorivka in Donetsk oblast

Z-channels write https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1762883575295209767 about a HIMARS missile strike on a gathering place of the Russian Armed Forces personnel in Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, during a formation exercise

Following Macron's words, Putin threatened "tragic consequences" for countries that dare to send their military to Ukraine.

A Ukrainian family died in this car, trying to escape the war
To mark the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, "Meckenheim hilft" and a German artist have placed a bullet-riddled car at Berlin's Soviet Memorial.
The car was recovered from Irpin, Ukraine, a site of alleged Russian war crimes against civilians.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
Igotjelly · 29/02/2024 11:40

And Putin’s done. I’m assuming the standing ovation is them showing gratitude that he finally shut the fuck up 😂

DancesWithDucks · 29/02/2024 12:09

@MissConductUS it seems like John Cornyn may be the best from that list? A person who is committed to one party but will sometimes regard issues on their own merit rather than sticking purely to the party line.

MissConductUS · 29/02/2024 13:28

Ducks, you might well be correct. I was opining on who I thought was most likely to succeed, him, not who would be the best possible choice.

Thune is currently number two in the leadership, and McConnell will probably back him.

MagicFox · 29/02/2024 14:43

Yes but I've read elsewhere it was a mistranslation of what he actually said and has been made into a bit of a molehill

OP posts:
notimagain · 29/02/2024 16:14

He'd have been better off not commenting in any way shape or form on the matter, thus removing the risk of any translation errors.

As a first glance it looks ATM it appears he's tried to throw UK and possibly French assets under the bus in an attempt to maintain his "can't be too careful" stance.

DancesWithDucks · 29/02/2024 16:19

Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine have downed no less than 3 planes today.

notimagain · 29/02/2024 16:29

DancesWithDucks · 29/02/2024 16:19

Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine have downed no less than 3 planes today.

I hate to say it but personally I'm finding the level of weekly/daily losses to the Russian Air Force being pushed out by some sources is really really stretching credibility..

If you look back historically at the whole business of "kills" it's murky as heck (due fog of war, multiple units engaging the same target and all claiming a kill, misreporting, misidentification...the list goes on) and it's often taken years, possibly due to historical research by academics with access to all the archives, to get close to a correct count....

DancesWithDucks · 29/02/2024 17:16

Fair enough.

This is not meant in the slightest snidely, it's a genuine question (knowing how tone comes over on the Internet).

If the numbers of aircraft are iffy, presumably the numbers of tanks and other hardware are also very iffy? Except ships, which seem to be fairly reliably reported :)

I do note that people seem to think that the A50U damaged in belorus early on is back in service.

notimagain · 29/02/2024 17:43

I think you have to regard all the numbers as "iffy"....the question is by how much..

I think Oryx(?) had the right idea by insisting on confirmation by image before declaring a loss confirmed.

One problem I have with the claimed aircraft loses is how are they being confirmed?....AFAIK the Russian AF is only operating on it's own side of the front line, so does Ukraine have images of all these downed aircraft or is it relying on after action reports from it's own units..??

Don't get me wrong, I'd love the aviation losses to be at the levels being claimed..but it sounds almost too good to be true

MissConductUS · 29/02/2024 18:04

If the numbers of aircraft are iffy, presumably the numbers of tanks and other hardware are also very iffy?

Tank, IFV, and APC kill numbers can be pretty fuzzy. If you see a turret toss and the ammo inside goes up in a secondary explosion, that's a hard kill. A tank rolling over a mine can sustain minor damage and loss of mobility but not combat capability (i.e., the main gun can still be fired), or it too can be a complete loss. When an anti-tank squad hits a target with an ATGM, they typically withdraw rapidly to a new location to avoid counterfire. So they often don't know exactly how bad the damage was.

Broadly speaking and over time, you can get a pretty good idea of how bad the losses are for the enemy. As notim pointed out, Oryx does a very credible job estimating equipment losses from open source intelligence:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

These numbers represent a minimum, as they don't count a vehicle as destroyed unless there's a high level of certainty.

The US Army takes a similar approach. High-resolution military satellite surveillance can easily count how many vehicles sortie then RTB (return to base) over a period of time. Signals intel helps as well. You can listen to Russian radio chatter about their own losses in real-time.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

DancesWithDucks · 29/02/2024 18:10

I wonder if the downed aircraft are confirmed by the US satellite intelligence? Though iirc Ukraine has its own satellite now - crowdfunded, no less.

Just a notworthy aside, Oryx said awhile ago that they do not count hardware that's destroyed in a yard or garage for example, as they cannot always be sure if it was 2 there or 5, or 18 or 20. They really do try to be very precise.

MissConductUS · 29/02/2024 19:00

DancesWithDucks · 29/02/2024 18:10

I wonder if the downed aircraft are confirmed by the US satellite intelligence? Though iirc Ukraine has its own satellite now - crowdfunded, no less.

Just a notworthy aside, Oryx said awhile ago that they do not count hardware that's destroyed in a yard or garage for example, as they cannot always be sure if it was 2 there or 5, or 18 or 20. They really do try to be very precise.

I suspect they try to confirm them, but aircraft wreckage is typically spread out over an area, whereas a tank or IFV hull will remain more or less in one piece.

I think it's safe to assume that the crowd-funded Ukrainian satellite is somewhat less capable than the American Block V KH-11s currently in orbit.

KH-11 KENNEN - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KH-11_KENNEN

blueshoes · 01/03/2024 02:23

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria held the Seventh Congress of Transnistrian Deputies on February 28 and adopted a series of decisions that likely aim to provide the Kremlin with justifications for a wide range of possible escalatory actions against Moldova — actions the Kremlin can pursue both immediately and over the long-term.
  • The Kremlin has yet to signal an immediate route for escalation following the Congress of Transnistrian Deputies, although Russian President Vladimir Putin may respond to the Transnistrian requests during his speech to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29.
  • The Kremlin can use the outcomes of the Congress of Transnistrian Deputies to justify a range of possible COAs that are not mutually exclusive.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted another strike on a Russian personnel concentration in occupied Donetsk Oblast, once again sparking ire amongst Russian milbloggers and re-surfacing concerns about Ukraine’s use of HIMARS systems.
  • Russia continues cracking down on actors it deems “foreign agents” to consolidate control over the Russian information space ahead of the March 2024 presidential election.
  • A Financial Times (FT) investigation published on February 27, reportedly based on leaked classified Russian military documents from 2008-2014, outlines Russia’s purported criteria for the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
  • Turkey and China appear to be pursuing their own negotiation platforms for a settlement in Ukraine, which the Kremlin will likely exploit to further its long-standing narratives regarding negotiations and the war.
  • Russian forces made confirmed advances near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu inspected the Tula State University’s Military Training Center and several defense industrial base (DIB) enterprises in Tula Oblast on February 28.
  • Russian occupation authorities are using early voting for the Russian presidential election to cloak Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukraine in a veneer of fabricated legitimacy.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
notimagain · 01/03/2024 09:19

@MissConductUS

I think it's safe to assume that the crowd-funded Ukrainian satellite is somewhat less capable than the American Block V KH-11s currently in orbit.

Very safe…..

You’ll know this but the Ukrainian’s have bought access to high commercial resolution stuff..nowadays that can be very impressive but coverage may not be either instantaneous, sharp eyed enough or fast enough getting data back for it to be used for same day confirmation of losses, especially if the losses are in bits.

The US stuff could probably read some of the fine details of what’s left of a crashed aircraft but only if:

It knew exactly where the crash was (there’s whole reason for the “keyhole” name used for the KH’s) and the KH just happened to be passing overhead that site at a suitable time….moving satellites in orbit to facilitate observing a particular site is v expensive and potentially reduced the satellites life.

I can’t see the KHs and similar being shunted around to confirm losses.

KH-11 KENNEN - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KH-11_KENNEN

MagicFox · 01/03/2024 09:43

Hundreds of Russians queuing up for Navalny's memorial service this morning

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 01/03/2024 10:27

MagicFox · 01/03/2024 09:43

Hundreds of Russians queuing up for Navalny's memorial service this morning

Good for them!

I reiterate that I don't hate the Russian people, the majority of whom are just trying to live their lives like the rest of us. As with anywhere else there are brave souls and those risking arrest and abuse to attend a funeral are definitely amongst them.

I refuse to let Putin make me hate an entire nation of people. (Clearly I have exceptions but I suspect that many ordinary Russian's silently hate the people I hate equally).

MagicFox · 01/03/2024 10:28

Well said Jelly, completely agree

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