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Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

989 replies

MagicFox · 25/01/2024 13:25

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
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221
DancesWithDucks · 19/02/2024 20:14

Time to donate to Ukraine!

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 19/02/2024 20:14

DancesWithDucks · 19/02/2024 20:14

Time to donate to Ukraine!

That too.

blueshoes · 19/02/2024 20:16

DancesWithDucks · 19/02/2024 20:14

Time to donate to Ukraine!

heheh, just sent a double-whack donation yesterday. Must have sensed the arrival of trolls.

Igotjelly · 19/02/2024 20:30

notimagain · 19/02/2024 17:38

Agreed, seems to be (yet another) subject the politicians won't talk about...

I think one big problem for the UK in the current climate, assuming conscription isn't on the cards, would be recruiting. It's all very well buying lots some fancy kit but getting youngsters to sign up would need a major shift in, for want of a better word, T&Cs...

Sky News were reporting a sixty year high on army recruitment numbers in Jan following all the talk of conscription. So clearly the scare tactics (for want of a better word) are having an effect.

MissConductUS · 19/02/2024 20:57

ElizaMulvil · 19/02/2024 19:48

How much do you think the huge amount of corruption in Ukraine ie Army pocketing the cash/selling on the arms, is responsible for EU countries being reluctant to send Zelensky more arms ? Not to mention his banning opposition political parties and banning Trade Unions and confiscating their property? Not to mention his giving a standing ovation to and applauding a member of the Waffen SS on his visit to Canada? Perhaps Putin has a point about rise of fascism in Ukraine ? Monuments, national holidays to commemorate fascists are also a problem surely? No wonder European countries who suffered cruel occupation from fascists in WW2 are both to give support to them now.

Investigations by the US have not shown any military aid being diverted to corruption.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/fact-sheet-us-assistance-ukraine

And the Ukrainians who supported the Germans instead of joining the Red Army can be forgiven because the Russians had a history of ruthless oppression and genocide in Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_collaboration_with_Nazi_Germany

Most Ukrainians, especially in western Ukraine, had little to no loyalty toward the Soviet Union, which had been repressively occupying eastern Ukraine in the interwar years and had overseen a famine in the early 1930s called the Holodomor that killed millions of Ukrainians.

Institute for the Study of War

US aid to Ukraine does not lack oversight nor has corruption in Ukraine diverted it. America’s NATO and Asian allies and other European states have committed more money to support Ukraine than the United States. Ukraine is not a “forever war” for the U...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/fact-sheet-us-assistance-ukraine

WinterMorn · 19/02/2024 21:00

DancesWithDucks · 19/02/2024 20:14

Time to donate to Ukraine!

Handily enough I received a United24 email today 🙂

blueshoes · 19/02/2024 21:07

Igotjelly · 19/02/2024 20:30

Sky News were reporting a sixty year high on army recruitment numbers in Jan following all the talk of conscription. So clearly the scare tactics (for want of a better word) are having an effect.

Nice.

This may be a stupid question. Why would talk of conscription encourage people to sign up for military service? Would talk of war spur some people to want to fight? Or maybe it is not necessarily to fight on the frontlines but in a support role.

Nonetheless very grateful to those who step up to the challenge. I am conscious that if there was a conscription it would affect my teenage son.

MissConductUS · 19/02/2024 21:17

blueshoes · 19/02/2024 21:07

Nice.

This may be a stupid question. Why would talk of conscription encourage people to sign up for military service? Would talk of war spur some people to want to fight? Or maybe it is not necessarily to fight on the frontlines but in a support role.

Nonetheless very grateful to those who step up to the challenge. I am conscious that if there was a conscription it would affect my teenage son.

Back when the US had conscription during the Vietnam War, soldiers who enlisted had a better choice of specialist training options and duty assignments. That encouraged a lot of men who were fairly sure to be drafted to enlist instead.

blueshoes · 19/02/2024 21:29

MissConductUS · 19/02/2024 21:17

Back when the US had conscription during the Vietnam War, soldiers who enlisted had a better choice of specialist training options and duty assignments. That encouraged a lot of men who were fairly sure to be drafted to enlist instead.

oh, thanks for explaining. It is the least worst option then 😓

DancesWithDucks · 19/02/2024 22:11

@notimagain seems more likely that the defecting pilot was killed
https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1759697916313075897 footage of the crime scene.

https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1759697916313075897

Februaryfeels · 19/02/2024 22:19

Oooh donation time

Although if we get a "bombing the Donbas for 8 years" (now 10) I'll double the donation

Throw in a biolab and/or language ban and I'll toss in another £20

notimagain · 19/02/2024 22:20

@DancesWithDucks

Thanks for the update.

L1ttledrummergirl · 19/02/2024 22:23

I'd guess that they've sorted out recruit processing with crapita, rather than more people applying.
Ds2 withdrew after aprox 18 months of them pissing around. By all accounts this wasn't unusual.

notimagain · 19/02/2024 22:34

L1ttledrummergirl · 19/02/2024 22:23

I'd guess that they've sorted out recruit processing with crapita, rather than more people applying.
Ds2 withdrew after aprox 18 months of them pissing around. By all accounts this wasn't unusual.

From what I've been hearing elsewhere, no, it's not unusual, and HM Forces has probably a lot of good people as a result.

I'm sure on paper reducing forces personnel tied up in recruiting looked like a good idea to somebody at some point but it's contracts with the likes of Crapita that are part of the problem with the way the UKs defence budget is actually spent....

The early stages of the UK's Military Flying Training process has been outsourced to out side civilian contractors with similar results...I'm not sure it could now be brought back in house even if money was available...

blueshoes · 20/02/2024 00:07

I am really hope that the UK government does not continue to screw things up with their crap outsourcing yet again now that we need a strong defence more than ever.

Particularly if we end up losing good recruits like @L1ttledrummergirl's ds2. I remember you mentioning it previously. Hope he has managed to find something else since.

MissConductUS · 20/02/2024 00:15

I had to google Crapita. How can you possibly have civilians doing military recruitment? They'd have no idea of how the armed services work. And there's no accountability to the chain of command.

It's madness.

DdraigGoch · 20/02/2024 00:49

blueshoes · 19/02/2024 21:07

Nice.

This may be a stupid question. Why would talk of conscription encourage people to sign up for military service? Would talk of war spur some people to want to fight? Or maybe it is not necessarily to fight on the frontlines but in a support role.

Nonetheless very grateful to those who step up to the challenge. I am conscious that if there was a conscription it would affect my teenage son.

Recruitment always goes up when there's a greater chance of seeing some action. I suppose that an active conflict makes a military career seem more exciting than joining up to spend your days in Catterick.

DdraigGoch · 20/02/2024 00:52

L1ttledrummergirl · 19/02/2024 22:23

I'd guess that they've sorted out recruit processing with crapita, rather than more people applying.
Ds2 withdrew after aprox 18 months of them pissing around. By all accounts this wasn't unusual.

When I was attempting to join the RNR back in 2015 there were loads stuck in a bureaucratic quagmire. Crapita did the medicals and if the slightest issue came up, the decision over whether it would actually make you unfit for service ended up at the bottom of someone's in-tray

DancesWithDucks · 20/02/2024 07:48

MissConductUS · 20/02/2024 00:15

I had to google Crapita. How can you possibly have civilians doing military recruitment? They'd have no idea of how the armed services work. And there's no accountability to the chain of command.

It's madness.

Yup.

notimagain · 20/02/2024 08:38

I know this is off the main topic but the following might help in the context of some of the previous discussion..

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/98547/army-and-capita-must-share-blame-for-soldier-recruitment-failures/

I was involved in aircrew training at one point in my flying career and what was a highly regarded system has been gutted since my day.

https://www.key.aero/article/raf-aircrew-training-problems-and-way-ahead

As far as the UK goes the whole recruitment and training process is a very expensive mess and a waste of the defence budget….chucking more money at the current systems without also introducing drastic changes and maybe removing some of the public sector element won’t improve the state of readiness of HM forces…

..and breath…

RAF aircrew training – the problems and way ahead

The RAF’s training system has been the topic of countless news headlines in recent years, leaving trainees on hold for months, awaiting a pilot flying slot. Added to this have been unfortunate cost-cutting exercises. Jon Lake looks through the chaos to...

https://www.key.aero/article/raf-aircrew-training-problems-and-way-ahead

notimagain · 20/02/2024 08:55

MissConductUS · 20/02/2024 00:15

I had to google Crapita. How can you possibly have civilians doing military recruitment? They'd have no idea of how the armed services work. And there's no accountability to the chain of command.

It's madness.

It’s not just recruiting…

The UK pilot training side of things is such now that potentially a whole trache of a military student pilot’s basic flying training will be done at a civilian school, along side peers who are heading for the airlines..

So it’s quite possible the new recruit does basic officer training, then effectively steps back outside the service to live and work as a civilian for a year plus. They only steps back into full time service life when/if they get to advanced flying training…

A whole chunk of early service life, including the around, err character building stuff and seeing how the services work, has gone missing….

……and now I really must do something more productive…

Igotjelly · 20/02/2024 09:22

God it's just occurred to me that it's the anniversary of the invasion this week. Two fucking years, how on earth did we get to this.

Interesting (coming from Ukraine the Latest but also read somewhere else that I now can't recall) discussion on measures that are being taken to 'Trump proof' NATO and it very much being a focus for members of the alliance. Seems to be taking number of different guises:

  • Work being done to ensure that all members are meeting or exceeding the 2% spending target by the NATO anniversary summit
  • Messaging to the Americans that NATO will be tougher on China (e.g. making sure China is referenced in statements etc.) the idea being that they'll ensure that Trump is able to link NATO's role back to his own foreign policy ambitions (because frankly he's too stupid to make those links himself).
  • Making Mark Rutte the next Secretary General - known in diplomatic circles as the 'Trump whisperer' because during Trump's last tenure he apparently took a liking to Rutte. I imagine this will involve Rutte swallowing a fair bit of pride for the greater good.
  • Flattery - they acknowledge that Trump's ego is the biggest both hazard and opportunity.

NATO's mantra in various circles seems currently to be "keep calm and manage Trump".

blueshoes · 20/02/2024 09:58

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-19-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian actors conducted a cyber operation regarding Russia’s seizure of Avdiivka, likely aimed at generating panic in the Ukrainian information space and weakening Ukrainian morale.
  • The tempo of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka has reportedly dramatically slowed following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka.
  • Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two more Russian fighter aircraft, a Su-34 and a Su-35S, in eastern Ukraine on the morning of February 19.
  • The White House is reportedly considering the provision of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in the event that Congress passes security assistance for Ukraine.
  • The Russian government eased the requirements for “compatriots” living abroad to apply to resettle in Russia.
  • Emirati banks reportedly began to limit some transactions with Russian entities and close Russian citizens’ accounts in September 2023 due to the risk of Western secondary sanctions.
  • Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated that Armenia does not support Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine against the backdrop of deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitri Medvedev claimed on February 19 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has recruited more than 53,000 military personnel since January 1, 2024.
  • Russian authorities have reportedly returned Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine and Russia to relatives in Ukraine. [Really? Great if true]
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
DancesWithDucks · 20/02/2024 10:03

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Shmyhal: Japan to allocate https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-japan-to-allocate-1-3-billion-to-support-japanese-investors-in-ukraine/ $1.3 billion to support Japanese investors in Ukraine.

⚡️Suspilne: Ukraine 'working with SpaceX' to disable https://kyivindependent.com/suspilne-ukraine-working-with-spacex-to-disable-russias-use-of-starlink-on-front-lines-minister-says/ Russia's use of Starlink on front lines, Minister says.
Fedorov emphasized the need for a nuanced approach to disable Russia's use of Starlink, as broadly disconnecting the terminals would hinder Ukraine's ability to operate drones in occupied territories.

The Swedish government has announced a military aid package worth 7.1 billion Swedish kronor ($682 million), the country's largest contribution to date, the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter (DN) reported on Feb. 19. https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-officially-unveils-680-aid-package-for-ukraine-including-boats-shells/ Ukraine will receive boats, artillery ammunition worth 2 billion Swedish kronor ($192 million), RBS 70 man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), anti-tank missiles, Carl Gustaf grenade launchers, hand grenades, and medical supplies, the SVT public broadcaster reported.

Budapest will not block the 13th package of the European Union’s sanctions against Russia, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said at a press conference on Feb. 19. https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-wont-block-new-eu-sanctions-package-against-russia-szijjarto-says/

⚡️ US mulls sanctioning https://kyivindependent.com/us-mulls-sanctioning-chinese-companies-over-aiding-russias-war/ Chinese companies over aiding Russia's war.
The U.S. is considering imposing sanctions on Chinese firms suspected of fueling Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, CNBC reported on Feb. 19, citing U.S. Congress members.

Maksim Kuzminov, a Russian helicopter pilot who defected to Ukraine in 2023, has been found dead in Spain, Ukrainska Pravda reported on Feb. 19, citing the press service of Ukraine's military intelligence. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainska-pravda-russian-pilot-who-defected-to-ukraine-found-dead-in-spain/

⚡️Canada to donate https://kyivindependent.com/canada-to-donate-over-800-drones-to-ukraine/ over 800 drones to Ukraine.

⚡️EU demands independent international investigation into Navalny's death. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-demands-independent-international-investigation-into-navalnys-death/

⚡️Military: Russian troops killed https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-troops-executed-five-wounded-ukrainian-soldiers-in-avdiivka-after-promising-to-evacuate-them/ wounded Ukrainian soldiers in Avdiivka after promising to evacuate them.

⚡️Biden says US considering https://kyivindependent.com/biden-says-us-considering-additional-sanctions-on-russia-over-navalnys-death/ new sanctions on Russia over Navalny’s death.

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Feb. 19 he is willing to meet U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson to discuss a funding bill for Ukraine’s security needs, Reuters reported. https://kyivindependent.com/biden-says-he-is-ready-to-meet-speaker-johnson-to-discuss-ukraine-aid/

⚡️ Russian media: US citizen arrested https://kyivindependent.com/us-national-arrest-in-russia/ in Russia for allegedly raising money for Ukraine.

A court in Russia's Lipetsk Oblast on Feb. 19 ordered a confectionary factory owned by former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in the region to be nationalized. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-orders-nationalization-of-former-president-poroshenkos-roshen-chocolate-factory/

⚡️ Ukraine receives https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-received-over-40-billion-from-international-partners-in-2023/ over $42 billion from international partners in 2023.

⚡️Dutch far-right leader Wilders criticizes https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-far-right-leader-wilders-criticizes-ukrainian-refugees/ Ukrainian refugees.
Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders railed against Ukrainian refugees on Feb. 19, saying that they are coming to the Netherlands for "free housing, free healthcare, and our jobs."

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 20, 2024
■ Highest 7-day casualties since start of war; 2nd biggest day of 2024 (8th overall)
■ Equipment losses on the rise as well; artillery matches 7-day record
■ More strikes on both sides; today's ratio improves slightly but still very much in Russian favor

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
DancesWithDucks · 20/02/2024 10:41

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Commander of the operational-strategic group of troops "Tavria," Tarnavskyi, has reported that the Ukrainian military has successfully fortified new lines of defense in the Avdiivka direction.

Russia enters the third year of the war in Ukraine with an unprecedented amount of cash in its treasury, fueled by a record $37 billion in crude oil sales to India last year, as reported by CNN citing an analysis by the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research.
A portion of the crude oil was refined by India and subsequently exported to the United States as petroleum products valued at over $1 billion. This financial influx to Moscow stems from India's significant increase in purchasing Russian oil, which surged more than 13 times compared to pre-war levels.

Last year, imports to Russia from G7 countries plummeted to their lowest levels since the early 2000s, as reported by the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
According to IIF data, on a monthly basis, the USA, Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and Canada collectively supplied the Russian Federation with goods totaling less than $2 billion. This contrasts sharply with figures from 2017-2019, when imports averaged $5 billion, and before Russia's occupation of Ukrainian Crimea, when they stood at $8 billion.

The head of the Ministry of Digital Transformation, Fedorov, engaged in discussions with SpaceX founder Musk regarding the usage of Starlink by occupiers on the frontlines even before the issue gained significant attention.

The Swedish government has unveiled its largest military aid package to Ukraine, valued at 7.1 billion Swedish kronor (630 million euros). This comprehensive support package includes:

  • 10 amphibious assault boats of the Stridsbåt 90 class
  • 20 landing craft
  • Underwater weapons such as mines and torpedoes
  • Several anti-aircraft systems including Robot 70
  • TOW model anti-tank works
  • Grenade launchers with ammunition
  • Artillery ammunition
  • Hand grenades
  • "Karl Gustav" grenade launchers
  • Medical equipment
  • Ambulances
Additionally, 1 billion crowns will be allocated towards the procurement of military equipment through various funds, while another 1 billion will be designated for the acquisition of new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.

Ukrainian engineers, as announced by Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, have developed a remote-controlled "medical tow truck."
With a control distance of up to 700 meters and a power reserve extending up to 10 km, the vehicle prioritizes operator safety while also providing the means to rescue injured individuals. Fedorov further stated, "That is, the operator is safe, and this is an opportunity to save the life of the operator and save the injured." [it sounds like many medics have been killed]

Today, shocking billboards emerged in various areas of Tallinn, depicting residential buildings bearing unmistakable signs of the Russian world — half-demolished, charred, and struck by missiles. Remarkably, the same structures stood intact in reality, just behind the billboards. This campaign aims to underscore the genuine threat posed by the Russian world and dispel any illusions regarding Russia's intentions.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

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