Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

In the suburbs of Odesa, a car of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army carrying activist Albert Kruchynin and his wife Natalia was blown up. Doctors are fighting for their lives.
The UVA command stated that enemy subversive groups may be involved in the bombing and announced a $10,000 reward for information about the perpetrators.
Police have classified the incident as an attempted murder of two people.

Canada will donate https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2024/02/defence-minister-bill-blair-announces-canadian-donation-of-over-800-drones-to-ukraine.html more than 800 SkyRanger R70 drones to Ukraine. This is part of the aid package announced by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during his visit to Kyiv in June 2023.
The SkyRanger R70 drones are used for surveillance and intelligence gathering, as well as for the transportation and delivery of ammunition.

Polish farmers blocked the railroad near the Medyka-Shehyni checkpoint and poured grain out of a freight car
After that, they returned to the highway, where they blocked the traffic of freight vehicles.

Unbelievable, what is Musk playing at!

It's back up. I've followed it.

Good idea @L1ttledrummergirl, I've followed it too.

Does anyone know what the new package (13th) of sanctions against Russia actually mean. I thought I misheard the news when EU announced it but actually it looks that they are still even after two years of war haven't got sober and in some sort of hallucination mode.

I'm sorry for my grim outlook of Russia but sanctions is like an honour title in that country, it's like a reward.

Does anybody understand why army reductions are going ahead in the current climate? ukdefencejournal.org.uk/no-plans-to-rethink-reduction-of-british-army/

@MagicFox
Good article, very true.

It would be interesting to see analysis of the naval developments during the war. Ukraine in effect has cornered Russian fleet in the black see using their advanced naval drones. What would the future hold for astronomically expensive ships which can be sunken by cheap army of naval drones.

The answer is in the text of the article:

"So in my negotiations with the Treasury,"...........

For years the spin has been "do more with less", lots of emphasis on "agility" and "punching above our weight"...what that actually meant was we need to take money out of defence and spend it elsewhere.

It will take years to turn that sort of attitude around and more importantly get the Treasury to agree....and it's also worth bearing in mind that post 1990'ish a lot of defence infrastructure has been sold off..winding everything back up will be expensive...

But this doesn't make sense when coupled with the hysterical stress on 'potential war with Russia in the next decade' etc

@notimagain
I think conscription is invertible answer to this problem. As it has been proven in Israel hight tech army has its limits, more troops on the ground would have prevented October 7th insurgency.

I was listing to an Israeli general another day and their whole strategy was exactly this, reduce the force on the ground and change the physical human beings with complex systems.

But I think it takes time in Europe, for forty years the whole idea of war has been downgraded.

Talking of using high tech - 2nd successive failure of an attempted test launch from a UK boat.

https://news.sky.com/story/trident-missile-misfired-and-crashed-into-ocean-during-rare-test-launch-13076724

I hear Grant Schapps was on board when this happened, a tad embarrassing....

@Fox111

I think conscription is invertible answer to this problem.

IMVHO pretty much regardless of any threat that’s just not going to happen in the UK, there would be widespread avoidance.

Plenty of Mumsnetters yell about not sending their DC of fight “politicians wars’” on threads various and there are whole other sections of society who would stick two fingers up to the idea.……Best stop going on about that before people think I’m planning on voting Reform….

One tactic might be be to improve the whole services “package” to generate more volunteers, make the “gig” more attractive , upgrade everything from accommodation right through to post service benefits (cf. the GI act)….but we are back to money and the Treasury again..

To be honest if we treated our veterans better rather than leaving them to languish after service and instilled some sort of national pride in our youth, rather than constantly blaming them for all of the country's ills we might go some way towards encouraging people to sign up.

Conscription is not something that will work in the UK, either for the population or the military.
Fixing the enlistment process, looking after veterans and decent pay and homes will go a long way.

^^

Very much agree with both the above.

I agree too, which is why I'm so aghast at the de-investment in the army that's currently happening

One tactic might be be to improve the whole services “package” to generate more volunteers, make the “gig” more attractive , upgrade everything from accommodation right through to post service benefits (cf. the GI act)….but we are back to money and the Treasury again..

That's what we do in the US. We offer enlistment bonuses, decent pay and housing, full retirement benefits and pension after twenty years, lifetime medical care after two years, and a whole variety of educational benefits for soldiers and their children after they're discharged. Most people get a government paid post graduate degree and their kids go to uni for free.

https://www.va.gov/education/about-gi-bill-benefits/

The military competes with private employers for the best and the brightest.

I forgot to mention, most US Army officers went through a program called ROTC that pays for all of their university education costs, including a monthly stipend and provides other benefits as well.

https://www.todaysmilitary.com/education-training/rotc-programs

Upon graduation, you either go into the Army Reserve forces or are placed on active duty, depending on the needs of the Army at the time.

That sounds like a much better system and I really hope somebody sensible in the inevitable new Labour govt pulls their finger out on this

New RUSI report:

The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24
Dr Jack Watling , Oleksandr V Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds
20 February 2024

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/threat-russias-unconventional-warfare-beyond-ukraine-2022-24

What about the $400 billion of frozen Russian assets?

Why aren't we using these?

Putin would reciprocate but are we always going to run scared of what he "might" do?
If so, give him Ukraine now and save whats left of the country.

Diplomatic relations, i mean why? Western diplomats cannot move in Moscow but Russian ones can in the West.

India China funding Russia through buying their oil and gas, we need to start sanctioning against this.

If we don't stop India China funding Russia then this war will never end and the only side suffering from sanctions is the 'West.

Many officer roles in the uk armed forces already attract bursaries and free tuition fees.

A good report I thought

Rearming Europe To Win Ukraine's Long War
François Heisbourg (Special Advisor to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and Special Advisor to the President of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).)

geopolitique.eu/en/2024/02/15/in-europe-ukraine-war-in-the-long-run/

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine has been defending itself against illegal Russian military intervention and aggression for 10 years.
• Russia’s grand strategic objective of regaining control of Ukraine has remained unchanged in the decade since its illegal intervention in Ukraine began.
• Russia worked hard to obfuscate its grand strategic objectives of regaining control of Ukraine between 2014 and the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
• Russian military intelligence is reportedly learning from its failures in recent years and has renewed efforts against NATO states.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu preened themselves on the Russian seizure of Avdiivka.
• Shoigu also claimed that Russian forces completely seized Krynky in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, although available open-source visual evidence and Ukrainian and Russian reporting suggests that Ukrainian forces maintain their limited bridgehead in the area.
• The Kremlin likely prematurely claimed the Russian seizure of Krynky to reinforce its desired informational effects ahead of the March 2024 presidential election, although the Kremlin is likely setting expectations that the Russian military may fail to meet.
• The New York Times (NYT) reported that the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka may have left hundreds of Ukrainian personnel “unaccounted” for.
• Ukrainian officials launched an investigation into additional apparent Russian violations of the Geneva Conventions on prisoners of war (POWs) in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian forces made a confirmed advance west of Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• The Kremlin continues to promote Russia’s efforts to expand its defense industrial base (DIB).
• Zaporizhia Oblast occupation authorities are expanding public services provision in occupied parts of the oblast to consolidate bureaucratic control and generate dependencies on the occupation administration.

@jasflowers the frozen Russian assets are held by banks, not ordinary banks, the largest share by the City of London Corporation which doesn't fall under Bank of England regulation and is effectively offshore.

The official line is worries about legality but realistically they're worried about their reputation of dealing safely with shady money from other countries