Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

I agree. It’s not really being talked about here in terms of an impending General Election, but my number one concern is defence. Not one of the parties is directly addressing this.

Agreed, seems to be (yet another) subject the politicians won't talk about...

I think one big problem for the UK in the current climate, assuming conscription isn't on the cards, would be recruiting. It's all very well buying lots some fancy kit but getting youngsters to sign up would need a major shift in, for want of a better word, T&Cs...

Well we'd be part of a larger NATO force. But the govt needs to be honest about what this will cost. If this is about deterrence, great. Say that strongly. I don't like the weirdness of saying with certainty russia will attack NATO but not saying how they know that. It makes it seem like something is going on the public don't know about.

I agree. Really concerned about defence as well. As a voter, I will be prepared to throw money at it and support the party that advocates a higher defence spend.

As would I

As Beau of the Fifth Column rightly points out, Denmark is doing the most sensible thing by sending all their ammunition to Ukraine for use there right now.

If it isn't used in Ukraine now to defeat the Russians who are there, they may indeed need to have it later for use at home against the Russians who will be there later. (This means that what the governments that are not sending enough to help Ukraine defeat Russia in Ukraine are saying to their citizens, though they may not know it, is "We would rather fight the Russians here than there. You being treated as Ukrainians are being treated by the Russians is something we consider preferable to keeping the barbarians a little further away.")

It's time for Europe to stop pussy-footing around and deal with the problem now instead of storing up trouble for later along with their hoarded weaponry. Even if it costs us resources that we are not actually using at the moment.

Agreed.

I've thought this for a while, and debated whether to post it, but have decided to ... I fear that war is coming unless we do. And I'm not convinced we are - by 'we' I mean all of Europe.

Not right now, of course. But in a time frame that isn't out of sight, unless Putin dies and more sane individuals take power. Which is not a given.

❗️❗️Maxim Kuzminov, a Russian pilot who stole a Russian helicopter in 2023 and flew to Ukraine, was found dead in Spain.Earlier, the death was reported by the Spanish media with reference to sources. A number of them identified the victim, but some did not. The media claimed that at least five bullet holes were found on the body of the victim.

Comments starting to do the rounds that this is fake news/disinformation, origin possibly a Russian Telegram channel..so it's a story to watch

Yes, and it's the worst case scenario outcome. There are other possibilities. Unless they do know something we don't: that's why I think they need to be clearer with their statements

@notimagain Tim White says it's been confirmed.

@DancesWithDucks

Well all I can say is Anton Gerashchenko, who is normally pretty reliable is claiming it's unconfirmed, possibly untrue, so I guess it's another case of needing to wait and see.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1759615236250747218?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1759615236250747218%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-18-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces will likely be able to establish new defensive lines not far beyond Avdiivka, which will likely prompt the culmination of the Russian offensive in this area.
• Delays in Western security assistance to Ukraine are likely helping Russia launch opportunistic offensive operations along several sectors of the frontline in order to place pressure on Ukrainian forces along multiple axes.
• Russian forces are likely seeking to take advantage of two windows of opportunity with the recent initiation of their simultaneous offensive operations—the period before the upcoming spring thaw and the nuanced dynamics of Western aid provision.
• The Russian capture of Avdiivka after four months of intensified offensive operations exemplifies the way that Russian forces pursue offensive operations that do not necessarily set conditions for wider operational gains but still force Ukraine to commit manpower and materiel to defensive operations.
• Russian forces have not yet demonstrated an ability to secure operationally significant gains or conduct rapid mechanized maneuver across large swaths of territory, and the capture of Avdiivka should not be taken as demonstrating this capability.
• Ukrainian officials are investigating two instances of apparent Russian violations of the Geneva Convention on prisoners of war (POWs) in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for failing to recognize 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps (DNR AC) Commander Lieutenant General Sergei Milchakov and the “Veterany” Assault Brigade (Volunteer Corps) for aiding in the Russian capture of Avdiivka, highlighting continued tension between Russian regular and irregular forces.
• The Washington Post reported that the Kremlin has been orchestrating a large-scale effort to spread disinformation in the Ukrainian media since January 2023, corroborating recent Ukrainian official reports about Russian information operations that use fake Telegram channels to infiltrate the Ukrainian information space.
• Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced on February 18 that Denmark is donating its “entire artillery” to Ukraine.
• The US is reportedly turning to India and China to engage Russia about Russia’s reported intent to launch an unspecified anti-satellite nuclear weapon into space.
• Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 18.
• Russian occupation officials continue to use educational programs as means of Russifying occupied Ukraine.

It could possibly be that they are seeing all the straws but that it's the accumulation of too many smaller things to lay out for the public, without letting Russia see what they know and what they don't.

I don't think the military can say it any more clearly than they are that We (all in Europe) Need To Start Building Up the Defense Industry FAST and not say 'wait another month for the next talking shop meeting'.

It's the politicans who don't want to alarm the ordinary people.

@notimagain Tim says it was first released in a far right Russian media entity, so you could be right.

@blueshoes I am of the same mind re voting, and am rapidly reaching the point where I will park all domestic issues and go with the most appropriate defence policy, irrespective of who it comes from (obviously mainstream!).

@DancesWithDucks

*I don't think the military can say it any more clearly than they are that We (all in Europe) Need To Start Building Up the Defense Industry FAST and not say 'wait another month for the next talking shop meeting'.

It's the politicians who don't want to alarm the ordinary people.*

I think that's pretty much what's going on...

TBH I don't think much is being hidden, it's simply a case of the military are rightly looking at the worse case scenario, which is Russia remaining belligerent and rebuilding their forces quickly. They are (rightly IMHO ) making a noise about it..

The politicians will avoid calls for extra spending as long as possible.

Completely agree. But couching it in those terms is not a bad idea rather than alluding to "new information" (as the danish minister did) without making it clear what that is. Outline the truth and it won't be hard to get the public behind defence spending.

@MagicFox I wish I had your optimism. I thought it would be hard to get the public around to spending more on defence. War is one of those never never topics having had peacetime for so long and the general public has forgotten about Ukraine for a while now. I assume if it was thought to be a vote winner both parties would be crowing for it now ahead of the election.

I am hoping whichever party gets in on whatever ticket they think makes them electable will do the right thing once they are in. But I am not holding my breath. I honestly think it will take for a major NATO country to be invaded before the public is galvanised and the politicians actually increase defence spending (I appreciate the UK is making the right noises but it will be too late by then if not already). I hope I am wrong.

@WinterMorn I agree all domestic issues pale in significance to defence as far as my vote in the UK elections is concerned.

How much do you think the huge amount of corruption in Ukraine ie Army pocketing the cash/selling on the arms, is responsible for EU countries being reluctant to send Zelensky more arms ? Not to mention his banning opposition political parties and banning Trade Unions and confiscating their property? Not to mention his giving a standing ovation to and applauding a member of the Waffen SS on his visit to Canada? Perhaps Putin has a point about rise of fascism in Ukraine ? Monuments, national holidays to commemorate fascists are also a problem surely? No wonder European countries who suffered cruel occupation from fascists in WW2 are both to give support to them now.

Oh here we go…… it’s one of the Kremlin crew 😐

Does have a posting history, which is more than some of them do.

Estonian intelligence chief on the threat from RU beyond ukraine:

www.reddit.com/r/nato/s/sJnNM28vDp

Between the lines, it seems perhaps that the "new information" is related to an awareness or Russian military restructuring (new units etc) that suggest a more ambitious future goal

ElizaMulvil
No wonder European countries who suffered cruel occupation from fascists in WW2 are both to give support to them now.

I assume you meant to type "loth" not "both" there?

I'm unsure how many countries in Europe lost a larger proportion of their population to the fascists in WWII than Ukraine did, to be fair. A hefty chunk of the numbers the USSR claimed were Ukrainians.

(And that's ones who had managed to survive the Holodomor, which had already killed 3.9 million in the previous decade.)

It might be that the efforts made in Ukraine to eliminate the corruption where they find it will help their war effort as much by convincing people they are not complacent about it as by the arms bought using the reclaimed money.

It's funny how fascism only seems to have started to rise in Ukraine (if indeed it has) after Russia had invaded and occupied a large chunk of their country; maybe the Fascists were not home grown but imported.