Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

989 replies

MagicFox · 25/01/2024 13:25

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
221
blueshoes · 15/02/2024 10:09

Igotjelly · 15/02/2024 09:58

At least, if nothing else, we survived it all the last time round! Hope springs eternal and all that.

Yes, hope springs eternal.

I hope it does not get to the point when we are actually invaded by Russia before the Allies finally get their act together.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 15/02/2024 10:17

Igotjelly · 15/02/2024 09:58

At least, if nothing else, we survived it all the last time round! Hope springs eternal and all that.

That's true. And anyway I expect to die before much more has time to occur, so with luck I don't have to worry about it!

Monty Python - Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life (Official Lyric Video)

Subscribe to the Official Monty Python Channel here - http://smarturl.it/SubscribeToPythonSing along to this Monty Python classic from "Monty Python's Life O...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_-q9xeOgG4

Igotjelly · 15/02/2024 10:37

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 15/02/2024 10:17

That's true. And anyway I expect to die before much more has time to occur, so with luck I don't have to worry about it!

Well that sounds awfully dark! Hope you're okay.

P.S I love Monty Python 😂

blueshoes · 15/02/2024 10:56

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime you are going to die soon? I am so sorry to hear that. I hope you are ok in the circumstances and getting support Flowers

DancesWithDucks · 15/02/2024 11:14

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime that sounds like the faintest of silver linings on a really rather dark cloud. I hope that this isn't the case, lovely.

DancesWithDucks · 15/02/2024 11:15

OTOH lobbing one upwards into space and triggering it for effect (e.g. EMP) has been done before

Im wondering about how serious the threat from an EMP instead of from nuclear bombs is. D'you happen to have any ideas?

DancesWithDucks · 15/02/2024 11:28

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Sullivan: Ukraine 'running out https://kyivindependent.com/sullivan-ukraine-running-out-of-ammunition-without-us-aid/ of ammunition' without US aid.
Ukrainian troops began running out of ammunition as U.S. assistance has largely stopped flowing, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Feb. 14, urging Congress to pass additional funding.

⚡️Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade confirms redeployment to Avdiivka https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-3rd-assault-brigade-confirms-it-was-redeployed-to-avdiivka-says-situation-extremely-critical/ says situation 'extremely critical.'

⚡️ CNN: US Congress briefed on 'serious national security threat' allegedly linked https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-us-congress-briefed-on-serious-national-security-threat-allegedly-linked-to-russia/ to Russia.
Mike Turner, the chair of the U.S. House of Representatives intelligence committee, provided information to all Congress members CNN reported on Feb. 14.
ABC News: Alleged 'serious threat' to US national security relates to Russia's plans to put nuclear weapons in space. https://kyivindependent.com/abc-news-alleged-serious-threat-to-us-national-security-links-to-russias-plans-to-put-nukes-in-space/

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Feb. 14 opened the 19th Ramstein-format meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which is being held in a hybrid format in-person in Brussels and online. https://kyivindependent.com/us-defense-secretary-austin-opens-19th-ramstein-format-meeting/

⚡️Zelensky's office announces https://kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-office-announces-his-european-tour-plan/ his European tour plan.

⚡️ Umerov: 15 countries join air defense coalition https://kyivindependent.com/germany-france-agree-on-air-defense-coalition-in-support-of-ukraine/ in support of Ukraine. The initiative is led by Germany, France, and the U.S., and 15 countries total have already joined, Umerov noted.

⚡️ Canada allocates https://kyivindependent.com/canada-allocates-44-million-f-16/ $44 million to support Ukraine's future F-16 fleet.

The IT Coalition for Ukraine, comprising 10 European nations, has signed a cooperation agreement to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities in information technology, communications, and cybersecurity, Ukraine's Defense Ministry announced on Feb. 14 https://kyivindependent.com/it-coalition-members-sign-cooperation-agreement-in-support-of-ukraine/

⚡️ Pistorius: Germany aims https://kyivindependent.com/pistorius-germany-aims-to-deliver-4-times-as-many-shells/ to deliver 4 times as many shells to Ukraine in 2024.

Ukrainian carriers plan to launch protests on Feb. 15 at the Dorohusk-Yahodyn border crossing with Poland in response to ongoing blockade by Polish farmers, Suspilne reported on Feb. 14. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-carriers-to-hold-protests-at-poland-border/ The action is currently planned to last for a month, but its duration will depend on the situation on the Polish side.

⚡️ Zelensky orders to set up new system https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-orders-to-set-up-new-system-linking-military-and-industry/ linking military and industry. The goal is to make manufacturers more aware of the needs on the front line, while Ukraine's Armed Forces will be better informed about production capabilities in all regions.

⚡️ Poroshenko says he is not allowed https://kyivindependent.com/poroshenko-not-allowed-to-attend-munich-conference-over-alleged-threats-to-life/ to attend Munich Conference over alleged threat to life.

⚡️ UNESCO: Ukraine needs $9 billion to revive tourism, cultural sectors. https://kyivindependent.com/unesco-ukraine-needs-9-billion-to-revive-tourism-cultural-sector/

He is in Russian captivity. She has late-stage cancer. Will they see each other again? https://kyivindependent.com/russian-captivity-cancer/
24-year-old Olha has been waiting for her husband's release since 2022. She has not lost hope that one day her beloved husband will return to Ukraine, but she is not sure she will be there to welcome him back home.

Note the boat, also "400k milestone around the corner"

ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 15, 2024
■ Drop in 🇷🇺 strikes, 🇺🇦 strikes stay above average
■ Highest weekly casualties of 2024; 400k around the corner
■ Big equipment losses; 'Caesar Kunikov' 25th ship/boat
■ Oryx: 60 🇷🇺 28 🇺🇦 net addition; 30-day ratio at 3.1x

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
DancesWithDucks · 15/02/2024 11:41

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The 19th meeting of the Ramstein format has begun. "We will focus on increasing defense production, drones and technologies, as well as preparing for both long-term challenges and solving urgent needs," said Defense Minister Rustem Umierov.

"Caesar Kunikov" carried cargo from Novorossiysk to Sevastopol. The ship was loaded and on the way it was destroyed by five MAGURA V5 unmanned aerial vehicles, said Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in a comment to national television.

Hungary blocks new package of sanctions against Russia — Financial Times.
According to the publication's sources, at yesterday's meeting of EU ambassadors, Hungary was the only country that did not approve the 13th package of sanctions targeting nearly 200 individuals and organizations from Russia, China, North Korea and other countries who are deemed to be helping Russia’s war effort. [Fucking hell]

Australia providing a 50 million Australian dollar grant to Ukraine. "...the [Australian] Government will provide a grant of 50 million Australian dollars (over $32 million) to the International Fund for Ukraine, directly supporting the procurement of priority military capabilities,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

"The EU has proposed imposing sanctions against North Korea for supplying missiles to Russia," reports Bloomberg.
However, Bloomberg notes that the impact of the sanctions, which include a travel ban and asset freeze, will be primarily symbolic.

"Diia Open Code — the application will become an open-source product," announced Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov. After opening the code, access to the registers and encryption features of Diia will remain restricted," Fedorov explained. [Diia is the do-everything app in Ukraine that's very heavily used]

In Latvia, cars with Russian license plates will begin to be confiscated from February 15. They can be transferred to Ukraine as a gesture of solidarity
In addition to the confiscation of vehicles with Russian license plates, their owners will have to pay a fine of 750 to 2 thousand euros, said Latvian Interior Minister Rihards Kozlovskis.

German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit denied Putin's statement that Germany and France asked to withdraw racist troops from Kyiv during negotiations in Istanbul in 2022
Putin announced such a request from Berlin and Paris in an interview with Tucker Carlson.

Baltic states are preparing for Russian invasion, — The Times.
The Baltic states are strengthening a thousand-kilometer stretch of their eastern borders, the most militarily vulnerable part of NATO's flank, with the so-called "Baltic Defense Line," which consists of barriers and bunkers.
"Each bunker will have an area of about 37 square meters, will accommodate about 10 soldiers, and will be protected from artillery strikes. In addition, there will be ammunition depots and structures such as anti-tank mines, ditches, barbed wire, and concrete pyramids nearby, known as "dragon's teeth"”, stated the Deputy Minister of Defense of Estonia Susan Lilleväli.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
DancesWithDucks · 15/02/2024 11:50

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Invaders have advanced in Avdiivka again – DeepState
It is noted that in the south their main task is to surround the Zenit fortified area, and in the north - to push the Defense Forces as far as possible. The situation continues to deteriorate due to continuous shelling with aircraft bombs and missiles. Enemy assault groups are concentrating on areas where they are successful. At the same time, Russian manpower continues to accumulate in the captured buildings of the city.

In 2023, more than 186,000 couples got married in Ukraine, which is 16% less than in 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, is Moscow's preferred choice for the US presidency.
Propagandist Zarubin asked Putin:
"Who is better for us - Biden or Trump?"
"Biden. He is a more experienced person, he is predictable, he is a politician of the old formation. But we will work with any U.S. leader who is trusted by the American people," Putin replied.

Lukashenko criticized the Belarusian youth for their love for Western brands.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
notimagain · 15/02/2024 12:21

@DancesWithDucks

Im wondering about how serious the threat from an EMP instead of from nuclear bombs is. D'you happen to have any ideas?

I know it was a big threat, especially to unscreened/unshielded electronics. Even with shielding lots of potential to screw up comms and essential services..

https://doh.wa.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/Documents/Pubs/320-090_elecpuls_fs.pdf

Washington State Department of Health – Office of Radiation Protection - Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Fact Sheet

https://doh.wa.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/Documents/Pubs/320-090_elecpuls_fs.pdf

PerkingFaintly · 15/02/2024 12:45

Interesting Putin is publicly trying to speak in favour of Biden – while I'm sure his internet sprites are doing their best to undermine the US elections and generally cause chaos.

The Russians are certainly preparing for the French elections:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/feb/12/french-security-experts-identify-moscow-based-disinformation-network

I wonder if Putin is genuinely afraid Trump might decide to drop a bomb on Moscow?

TFG does seem to like playing with the US arsenal (see the Mother Of All Bombs he dropped on Afghanistan, and the disastrous attack he ordered in Yemen in the first days of his presidency, which killed an American child and a US SEAL).

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/seal-american-girl-die-first-trump-era-u-s-military-n714346

French security experts identify Moscow-based disinformation network

Network operating in western Europe is ‘paving way for new wave of online manipulation’ in crucial election year, French agency says

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/feb/12/french-security-experts-identify-moscow-based-disinformation-network

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 15/02/2024 12:53

blueshoes · 15/02/2024 10:56

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime you are going to die soon? I am so sorry to hear that. I hope you are ok in the circumstances and getting support Flowers

Well, I was recently told by a nice nurse that I now have 34% heart function, so dying of a heart malfunction quite soon now seems like a definite option. And looking at the possibilities (nuclear war, stroke and lingering like my unfortunate father, diabetes and all that FAFF, and if none of those gets me there is always Altzheimer's to look forward to) I think a nice sudden heart attack seems like the best way to go. I really don't expect to outlive Putin unless someone very sensibly kills him off with arsenic in his soup.

Having said which, of course, I will probably be like my Aunt Monica and live to be ninety eight, terrifying all my grand-children and great-nephews and -nieces, and with no hearing left to speak of so that I don't have to pay any attention to anything they say. That would be just my durned luck....

blueshoes · 15/02/2024 13:53

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 15/02/2024 12:53

Well, I was recently told by a nice nurse that I now have 34% heart function, so dying of a heart malfunction quite soon now seems like a definite option. And looking at the possibilities (nuclear war, stroke and lingering like my unfortunate father, diabetes and all that FAFF, and if none of those gets me there is always Altzheimer's to look forward to) I think a nice sudden heart attack seems like the best way to go. I really don't expect to outlive Putin unless someone very sensibly kills him off with arsenic in his soup.

Having said which, of course, I will probably be like my Aunt Monica and live to be ninety eight, terrifying all my grand-children and great-nephews and -nieces, and with no hearing left to speak of so that I don't have to pay any attention to anything they say. That would be just my durned luck....

Edited

Hey, @AskingQuestionsAllTheTime you still have a sense of humour! We don't get to choose the way or when we go but I hope you get as close to peace and comfort for you and your family as possible when the time comes 🌹

PerkingFaintly · 15/02/2024 14:22

Shit, missed your posts, @AskingQuestionsAllTheTime .Shock

Really sorry to hear you're so unwell.

Here's to you outliving Putin...WineWink

MagicFox · 15/02/2024 15:22

Echoing @PerkingFaintly's excellent post @AskingQuestionsAllTheTime 🍷💐

OP posts:
MagicFox · 15/02/2024 15:25

PerkingFaintly · 15/02/2024 12:45

Interesting Putin is publicly trying to speak in favour of Biden – while I'm sure his internet sprites are doing their best to undermine the US elections and generally cause chaos.

The Russians are certainly preparing for the French elections:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/feb/12/french-security-experts-identify-moscow-based-disinformation-network

I wonder if Putin is genuinely afraid Trump might decide to drop a bomb on Moscow?

TFG does seem to like playing with the US arsenal (see the Mother Of All Bombs he dropped on Afghanistan, and the disastrous attack he ordered in Yemen in the first days of his presidency, which killed an American child and a US SEAL).

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/seal-american-girl-die-first-trump-era-u-s-military-n714346

I think it's an unsubtle example of Trump longing: "yeah please choose Biden, guys. Honestly. DONT choose Trump, I'd hate that. He might show me who's boss like he says. Please definitely don't do that ".... 🙄

OP posts:
PerkingFaintly · 15/02/2024 15:45

Steve Rosenberg in Moscow reckons it's the normal manipulative shit:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68303231

Underhand Russian support for Trump was thoroughly proven after the 2016 election (whether Trump was criminally involved or not), so now Putin wants to protect Trump and to feed MAGA whatever it needs to accuse Biden of similar.

As I said on the Trump thread, it wouldn't even surprise me if there were some anonymously driven "pro-Biden" campaigning which will be "discovered" days before the election to have been Russian-led.

I was going to say, online campaigning. But c2016 the Russians tried to create fake real-world Black Lives Matter protests.

So... watch this space, unfortunately.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/30/blacktivist-facebook-account-russia-us-election

https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/russian-trolls-are-obsessed-with-black-lives-matter.html

Russia's President Vladimir Putin gives an interview to journalist Pavel Zarubin in Moscow, Russia, February 14, 2024

Why Russia's Putin backing Biden for the US presidency is not what it seems

Had he backed a Trump presidency, it would have been a bigger gift for Joe Biden, says Steve Rosenberg.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68303231

MagicFox · 15/02/2024 16:30

Haven't managed to listen yet but here's a podcast episode that promises to look on the bright side: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/shield-of-the-republic/id1589548143?i=1000645469943

Shield of the Republic

Counter to type Eric welcomes Eliot back from his travels with a discussion of the positive things going on in the world. They discuss the strong response of the European allies to the Russian aggression against Ukraine, including the German Zeitenwende and the increase in German defense spending, they discuss the Franco-American relationship and the fact that France has emerged over the past twenty years as a much stronger and capable ally, the discuss the Ukrainian naval performance in the Black Sea and the return of grain exports to almost pre-war levels, they talk about Tucker Carlson beclowning himself in his interview with Putin and that latter's unconcealed contempt for his interviewer, they talk about the PRC's muted reaction to President Lai's election in Taiwan and the seeming slight and perhaps transitory improvement in US-China relations, as well as the good work of the Biden Administration in strengthening the links among U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific. They discuss the indictment of Jair Bolsonaro and the success of Ecuador's President in fighting drug cartels and gangs. Eric also apologizes to Foreign Affairs editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan for misattributing an article to his journal that actually appeared on the Council of Foreign Relations website.

OP posts:
Fox111 · 15/02/2024 16:39

When Putin says he prefers Biden he genuinely means it. Under vice president Biden he snatched Crimea and nearly snatched the remaining Ukraine so why not to like him. We don't know what Trump would have done.

MagicFox · 15/02/2024 16:42

Moving defence and explanation of NATO and what's at stake when trump attacks it by Steve Schmidt in this podcast interview: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000645449459

OP posts:
MagicFox · 15/02/2024 16:54

On 7 February, the EUISS organised a closed-door event convening EU policymakers and Russia experts to explore the undercurrents within the Russian governing elite and society in the longer term.
Across two panels, experts looked at various factors shaping Russia's future and their potential impact on the European Union. The first session, chaired by Mark Galeotti and Kadri Liik (ECFR) and moderated by Ondrej Ditrych (EUISS), focused on 'Russia's ruling elite'. Session two, moderated by Alexandros Yannis (EEAS), welcomed online participation from Andrei Kolesnikov (Carnegie Endowment), Anton Barbashin (Riddle Russia), and Agnieszka Legucka (Polish Institute of International Affairs).
The discussion delved into the interplay of public discontent, elite fragility, and external pressures to uncover potential scenarios for the future of Russia and subsequent implications for the EU.
Below, you'll find a report highlighting the key takeaways from the discussion.

www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Public%20Summary%20.pdf

OP posts:
PerkingFaintly · 15/02/2024 17:24

We don't know what Trump would have done in the sense that, as Trump wasn't president, all statements about an alternative history are guesswork.

However, this was Trump in 2018:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44852812

Trump explicitly stated he chose to take Putin's version of the world over that US intelligence services. Not to mention the mass of documentary evidence as presented to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

I doubt Putin prefers dealing with Biden, who has armed and funded Ukraine after the invasion, than with Trump whom he finds malleable.

Presidents Trump and Putin in Helsinki, 16 June

Trump sides with Russia against FBI at Helsinki summit

The US president contradicts intelligence agencies over claims of interference in the US election.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44852812

PerkingFaintly · 15/02/2024 17:36

At the time, both Lindsay Graham and Paul Ryan – neither exactly friends to the Democrats – criticised Trump for that behaviour.

As Ryan said, Trump "must appreciate that Russia is not our ally".

PerkingFaintly · 15/02/2024 17:41

Another thing we can see Trump actually did while president, is that he blocked payment of a $400 million military aid package to Ukraine which had already been mandated by Congress.

Apologies for the Wikipedia link. The opening paragraph here gives a good summary of what I remember being described in the evidence to (IIRC) the Senate by Alex Vindman and Fiona Hill. (Transcripts of those hearings will be on the US govt website somewhere. Apologies I don't have them to hand.)

The Trump–Ukraine scandal was a U.S. political scandal that arose from the discovery of U.S. President Donald Trump's attempts to coerce Ukraine and other countries into providing damaging narratives about 2020 Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden and giving misinformation relating to Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. Trump enlisted surrogates within and outside his official administration, including his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani and Attorney General William Barr, to pressure Ukraine and other foreign governments to cooperate in supporting conspiracy theories concerning American politics.[1][2][3][4][5] Trump blocked payment of a congressionally-mandated $400 million military aid package in an attempt to obtain quid pro quo cooperation from Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump released the aid after becoming aware of a whistleblower complaint about his activities relating to Ukraine, before the complaint was known by Congress or the public.[6] A number of contacts were established between the White House and the government of Ukraine, culminating in a phone call between Trump and Zelenskyy on July 25, 2019.[1][2][3][7]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump–Ukraine_scandal#External_links

Trump–Ukraine scandal - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal#External_links

blueshoes · 15/02/2024 18:06

Disregarding the mind f--k that is Putin saying he prefers Biden, isn't it a leetle humiliating for Tucker Carlson for Putin to endorse Biden so soon after his interview.

This thread prevents users from posting on it until they have been members for at least 14 days.