Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The US Senate passed a supplemental appropriations bill that would provide roughly $60 billion of security assistance to Ukraine, the vast majority of which would go to US companies and personnel.
• Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces are attempting to restore maneuver to the battlefield through Soviet deep battle theory but are struggling with implementing Soviet deep battle so far due to current Ukrainian capabilities.
• The current Ukrainian battlefield capabilities that are denying Russian forces the ability to restore maneuver to the battlefield on Russian terms largely depend on the provision of Western military assistance in key systems, many of which only the US can provide at scale.
• Ukrainian forces will not be able to retain these advantages and deny Russian forces the ability to restore maneuver to the battlefield on Russian terms without further assistance from the United States and its partner countries in the near and medium term.
• Russian sources are purposefully exaggerating Ukrainian casualties in a Russian strike near Selydove, Donetsk Oblast on February 13.
• The Kremlin appears to be asserting the right to enforce Russian Federation law on officials of governments in NATO member states over actions taken in the performance of their official duties within the territories of their own countries.
• US sanctions are reportedly constraining Russian efforts to skirt the G7 oil cap amid continued indications that India may be rethinking its growing position as a customer of Russian oil.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank stated on February 12 that Russia is likely able to sustain its current rate of vehicle losses for at least two to three years by producing new vehicles and reactivating vehicles from storage.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to solidify control of occupied Ukraine through institutionalizing social benefits and services.

Another Black Sea hit: Ukraine say they've sunk another Russian ship (the Caesar Kunikov) off the coast of Crimea

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

After months of deliberation, U.S. Senate approved a $95 billion funding package in the early morning of Feb. 13 that contained $60 billion in aid for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-13-february/

⚡️Media: Speaker Johnson wants private meeting with Biden before moving forward on Ukraine aid.
https://kyivindependent.com/media-speaker-johnson-wants-private-meeting-with-biden-before/

⚡️Russia announces intention https://kyivindependent.com/russia-announces-intention-to-leave-osce-parliamentary-assembly/ to leave OSCE Parliamentary Assembly.
The Russian Federation will suspend its participation in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Parliamentary Assembly, Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the Russian parliament, announced on Feb. 13.

⚡️Media: Russian landing ship sunk by drones https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-landing-ship-allegedly-sunk-by-drones-in-black-sea/ in Black Sea.
The Russian landing ship Caesar Kunikov was sunk by drones in the Black Sea in the morning of Feb. 14, Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing sources from Ukraine's military intelligence
The Caesar Kunikov's sister ship, the Novocherkassk, was destroyed by a Ukrainian missile strike in December 2023 while docked at Feodosia in occupied Crimea.

Ukrainian troops have switched from offensive to defensive posture and aim to exhaust advancing Russian forces, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in an interview with German ZDF channel, published on Feb. 13. https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-ukraine-shifts-to-defensive-to-drain-russian-troops/

⚡️Military: Ukraine reinforcing https://kyivindependent.com/brigade-spokesman-ukraine-reinforcing-avdiivka-as-russia-continues-its-offensive/ Avdiivka as Russia continues its offensive. Ukraine is reinforcing its troops fighting in Donetsk Oblast's Avdiivka, and some units of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade were withdrawn from the city for rotation for the first time in almost two years, the brigade's spokesman Ivan Siekach said on Feb. 13.

⚡️Stoltenberg says 18 of 31 NATO members expected https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-says-18-of-31-nato-members-are-expected-to-meet-2-defense-spending-goal/ to meet 2% defense spending goal.

⚡️Estonian intelligence: Russia could double troops https://kyivindependent.com/estonian-intelligence-russia-could-double-troops-on-border/ on border from the pre-2022 figure of 19,000, NATO must be better prepared for attack.

A large fleet of oil tankers used to export Russian crude oil is grinding to a halt, potentially as a result of increased U.S. sanctions on the Russian oil market, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 13. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-tankers-tied-to-russian-oil-trade-grind-to-halt-amidst-us-sanctions/

⚡️Polish farmers to begin https://kyivindependent.com/polish-farmers-to-begin-complete-blockade-of-ukrainian-border-crossings/ complete blockade of Ukrainian border crossings.

⚡️Czech farmers set to join https://kyivindependent.com/czech-farmers-set-to-join-protests/ protests, border blockade over Ukrainian imports.

⚡️Zelensky appoints https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-appoints-zaluzhnyis-ex-deputy-as-special-envoy-for-security-talks/ Zaluzhnyi’s ex-deputy as special envoy for security talks.

⚡️PM Shmyhal: Ukrainian ammunition production grew https://kyivindependent.com/denys-shmyhal-ukrainian-ammunition-production-grew-significantly-in-2023/ significantly in 2023.
The production of mortar shells increased 42 times in 2023, and artillery shells production more than doubled.

⚡️US donates https://kyivindependent.com/us-donates-over-1-million-in-demining-equipment-to-ukraine/ over $1 million in demining equipment to Ukraine.

⚡️Italy will allocate https://kyivindependent.com/italy-will-allocate-45-million-euros-to-reconstruct-odesa/ 500,000 euros to reconstruct downtown Odesa damaged by Russia.

⚡️Netherlands to join https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-to-join-drone-coalition/ Latvia-led drone coalition for Ukraine

⚡️Navy says only 5 Ropucha-class ships left https://kyivindependent.com/navy-says-only-5-ropucha-class-ships-left-in-russias-black-sea-fleet-after-sinking-of-caesar-kunikov/ in Russia's Black Sea Fleet after sinking of Caesar Kunikov.

Ukraine's military intelligence agency published a list on Feb. 14 of over 100 Syrian nationals who have been recruited by Russia to fight against Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-publishes-list-syrians/

Belarusian opposition working to create ‘alternative’ passport, safeguard exiles from Lukashenko regime https://kyivindependent.com/belarusian-exiles-hold-out-hope-for-alternative-passport/ [interesting idea]

Huge manpower and equipment losses again.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia may start a new major offensive after the March elections, — head of EU Diplomacy Josep Borrell. Russia may start a new major offensive after the March elections, — head of EU Diplomacy Josep Borrell.
....
He emphasized that, unlike their Russian counterparts, Ukrainian soldiers know what they are fighting for and do not lack motivation.
“But they cannot do it without our support, which has to increase urgently… What the EU and its Member States do in the coming months to provide Ukraine with the tools to withstand a Russian offensive will be decisive, for both Ukraine, but also for the security of the European Union,” said the head of European diplomacy.

Large Russian propaganda network uncovered in France.
The French government agency Viginum has uncovered the structured and coordinated pro-Russian network “Portal Kombat” activities. It consists of at least 193 websites that spread pro-Russian content, legitimized Russia's war against Ukraine, and destabilized public opinion in Western countries.

SpaceX assured that they do not do business with Russia. They promised to deactivate the terminals if they receive evidence of their use by a sanctioned side. [which could be tricky in the middle of the damn war]

Most of the crew of the destroyed "Caesar Kunikov" died
The representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate noted that there was a cargo with ammunition on board the ship, and the landing ship itself cannot be restored. The exact number of deaths is still unknown.

Polish farmers have announced that from February 20 they will block all checkpoints on the border with Ukraine as part of a nationwide strike, the Solidarity trade union.
In addition to checkpoints, they also plan to block communication hubs and entrances to transshipment railway stations and sea ports. [fuck's sake]

For the first time in three decades, Germany has announced a planned defense budget equivalent to 2% of GDP. The government has disclosed a transfer of $73.4 billion to military needs, marking a record amount for Germany, the report notes.
NATO defense ministers are expected to discuss the situation regarding military spending at a meeting in Brussels on February 15. It is anticipated that by 2024, approximately 20 out of the 31 NATO states will meet the norm of military spending at the level of 2% of GDP.

Putin proposed the US in 2023 to freeze the war in Ukraine, but the United States rejected the offer, saying that they were not ready to discuss a ceasefire without Ukraine.
This is reported by Reuters, citing three Russian sources with knowledge of the discussions

Klishchiivka is a village in the Bakhmut region that was wiped off the face of the earth. It became a stumbling block for the Russian occupiers. Since its liberation in October last year, the enemy has tried several times to take the village back, but has failed.

Russia's intention to auction Aivazovsky's painting "Moonlight Night" raises concerns, as this artwork was among 52 canvases illegally transferred to the Simferopol Art Museum in Crimea, according to Gunduz Mammadov, an expert in national and international criminal law.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russian losses in the battle for Avdiivka are 13 times higher than Ukrainian losses, based on visually confirmed data from OSINT analysts. It should be noted that the fighting has been going on for more than 4 months.
The actual proportion may be slightly different, but it is unlikely to be much different.

The prosecutor's office showed the consequences of the night shelling of the town of Selidove, Donetsk oblast
Russian troops hit a five-story building and a medical facility, killing a 38-year-old pregnant woman and a 36-year-old mother with a 9-year-old son. There are 12 wounded, including three children.

In Kharkiv, due to regular Russian attacks, the ceiling of the Sportyvna metro station began to leak. Workers have been trying to fix the problem since last week.
There have been numerous missile attacks near the station, causing landslides. That's why the ceiling is leaking.

From the Kyiv Indep:
⚡️Reports estimate https://kyivindependent.com/reports-estimate-russian-lost-over-8-000-tanks-other-afv/ Russia lost over 8,000 tanks, other armored fighting vehicles since February 2022.
Separate reports published by Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) on Feb. 13 suggest Russia has lost over 8,000 armored fighting vehicles, such as tanks and armored personnel carriers, in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68285304

Hungary shocked by two high profile resignations and others following.

A very good report, an accurate understanding of War prospects. Again everything depends on the allies, if Washington and Brussels can keep the help for another two years then it's plausible that Ukraine could have a better negotiating position.

@shashankjohsi

House intel Cttee chair urges admin to declassify info on “serious nat’l security threat.” CNN sources say it’s Russia related: “it is, in fact, a highly concerning and destabilizing” Russian capability “that we were recently made aware of.”

x.com/shashj/status/1757846430620819654?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

TLDR: evidence of russia looking to use nuclear weapons in space

Looks like a test of capability, expect we'll know more in no morning

Good article, sobre reading. Ukraine depends on its allies' continued support. It is not to make gains but even just to hold back Russian advances for another 2 years.

2 observations.

1. its not looking from what I can tell to ‘use’ NW in space but rather to deploy them for potential future use against satellites (not ideal but slightly less alarming)
2. Convenient timing right before the Bill goes to the House…..

What would that even look like?

After Cameron compared cutting support for Ukraine to appeasement (he's not wrong), far-right loony Marjorie Taylor Greene said he could "kiss her a#%".

Previous highlights from this nutjob include claiming that guns were a "god-given right" and that the UK has "mass stabbings". More on topic she claims that "Ukraine was just poking the bear" (what, by existing?)

Here’s a good opinion piece from Wesley Clark, the former NATO SACEUR, on what it would take militarily to drive the Russians from Ukraine.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-ukraine-can-learn-from-d-day-military-war-american-aid-strategy-d9ba7e33?st=28tepzxn62uu58b&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

@MissConductUS thanks for sharing the article from Wesley Clark.

It would be a dream if Ukraine's allies would find the political support and resolve to meticulously plan a D-Day-style landing with Ukraine. 80 years ago, those allies were actively fighting in the war. Today, Ukraine's army are forced to go alone against Russia. They are only asking for the equipment, weapons and shells. So much has already been provided and but much much more is needed.

I think it would take out enemy satellites which would have huge consequences. For china too!

A non-hysterical thread on the recent hoohah re the new Russian military capability. Importantly, it's describes here as a "longer term concern" rather than an "immediate crisis": x.com/padejesar/status/1757860099484189034?s=12

Lots of confirmation that this intel isn't particularly new, or particularly urgent. Mike Turner is a pretty staunch supporter of sending additional funding to Ukraine and there seems to be a fair amount of speculation that his vague statement about risks to the US and new Russian capabilities was timed to ensure that the latest Bill passes.

House Intel chair's national security warning is about Russia’s space power - POLITICO

Yes, very possibly. The attempt goes back to soviet days.

This is all so Cold War

Isn't it! It's like living through a history textbook but with Twitter....

Lots of confirmation that this intel isn't particularly new, or particularly urgent

Very much agree with the above and various other posts saying similar.

The Russians, the US and others have been developing / deploying anti-satellite hardware for decades….the US demonstrated an anti-Sat system, using a big missile launched from an F-15, probably 40 years back..

Also the US military was rumoured to have been planning some very interesting mission profiles planned for space shuttles launched out of Vandenberg on the US west coast, a plan scrapped due to the Challenger accident. To this day the details of some of the military Shuttle missions flown out of the Kennedy Space Centre are still shrouded in secrecy.

As far as nukes go AFAIK actually orbiting a nuclear weapon would be a major violation of various treaties…OTOH lobbing one upwards into space and triggering it for effect (e.g. EMP) has been done before..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StarfishPrime

For further info on the olden days:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASM-135_ASAT

In the 80s a colleague of mine was due to go on an exchange posting from the RAF to a USAF F-15 outfit but at the last moment the exchange was shifted to an F-16 squadron.

Belatedly we discovered the reason was that he was originally destined for one of the two F-15 squadrons that got designated to do anti-Sat. He lost the gig because the ASAT and all that went with it at the time was “US eyes only”.

Some of us just get that feeling of déjà vu.

It's extremely depressing.

At least, if nothing else, we survived it all the last time round! Hope springs eternal and all that.