Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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From Newsweek: Mike Johnson's Campaign Contributions From Company Tied to Russia

www.newsweek.com/house-speaker-mike-johnson-donations-russia-butina-1838501

It's a mark of the power of embedding assumptions in language, that it's taken nigh three hours to dawn on me that
"nearly snatched the remaining Ukraine"
is quite an odd way to express
"dramatically failed to snatch Ukraine, in large part because of the arms and intelligence provided to Ukraine by the Biden administration".

It's chronologically strange anyway: Biden was VP until the start of 2017, and the attempt to invade Ukraine (as opposed to Crimea) didn't happen until 2022 when he was no longer VP.

@PerkingFaintly
American intelligence gave Ukraine 72 hours. They tried to persuade Zelenskyy to leave. If it wasn't for the bravery of the Ukranian soldiers with some very talented defensive strategy and absolute incompetence to the Russian army in the first couple of days then it could have turned the other way.

Have you somehow missed the support the Biden administration has been providing to Ukraine?

And the attempts of parts of the Republican party to stop it?

Acknowledging the support from the Biden administration in no way diminishes the courage, cleverness or determination of the Ukrainians.

Pretending that support hasn't happened, and that somehow Biden is soft on Russia, is fiction.

To be fair to Johnson, his campaign manager does say the Russian-origin money was repaid by the campaign when they became aware of the situation.

I'm sure there are disguised Russian payments to many, many politicians and campaigning groups, who are entirely unaware of the money's Russian origin.

If they're quite genuinely unaware (rather than closing their eyes and doing their best not to see), I don't hold them culpable.

IIRC China is another major actor chucking concealed support at politicians in other countries.

I'm sorry to hear that Glad you have a sense of humour, it must help when processing such news.

They were warning Russia back in the autumn not to invade, and I simply don't believe that Zelenskyy wasn't warned earlier than 72 hours before.

From what I heard ( people who've read Schuster's book probably know more) he had all the signs this was coming but 1) didnt want to panic people and 2) didn't really believe it.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ White House: Avdiivka may fall https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-avdiivka-may-fall-to-russia-as-ukraine-runs-out-of-shells/ to Russia as Ukraine runs out of shells.

⚡️Budanov: Russia using thousands of SpaceX Starlink terminals https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-russia-using-thousands-of-spacex-starlink-terminals-in-ukraine/ in Ukraine.
Russian forces in Ukraine are using thousands of Starlink satellite communications terminals made by Elon Musk's SpaceX, the Ukrainian military intelligence chief told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Feb. 15.

⚡️Stoltenberg: Strengthening Europe's defense capabilities 'not an alternative to NATO.'https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-strengthening-europes-defense-capabilities-not-an-alternative-to-nato/

⚡️ World Bank: Ukraine's recovery costs rise to $486 billion. https://kyivindependent.com/world-bank-ukraines-recovery-costs-rise-to-486-billion/

⚡️ NATO official: No major shifts https://kyivindependent.com/nato-official-both-ukraine-russia-struggle-to-assemble-striking-force-for-major-breakthrough/ expected in Ukraine-Russia war this year as both Ukraine and Russia struggle to assemble a striking force capable of making a major breakthrough, a Kyiv Independent reporter said on Feb. 14, citing a high-ranking NATO official.
However, there appears to be an increase in offensive actions by Russia along the front as the frozen ground has enabled more cross-country movement, the official said in a briefing the day prior to the meeting of the NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Belgium..

⚡️ Stoltenberg: NATO, Ukraine to launch https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-nato-ukraine-to-launch-joint-training-center-in-poland/ joint new NATO-Ukraine joint analysis, training, and education center in Bydgoszcz, Poland.

⚡️ Germany pledges https://kyivindependent.com/germany-pledges-over-100-million-to-ukraine-in-short-term-support/ over $100 million to Ukraine in short-term support.

⚡️ Stoltenberg: Ukraine to receive 1 million drones https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-ukraine-to-receive-1-million-drones-from-allies-in-2024/ from allies in 2024.

⚡️ World Bank to disburse $500 millionhttps://kyivindependent.com/world-bank-to-disburse-500-million-for-ukrainian-business-in-2024/ for Ukrainian businesses in 2024.

⚡️ Polish minister: Ukraine-Poland talks on agricultural trade at 'final stage.' kyivindependent.com/polish-minister-ukraine-poland-talks-on-agricultural-trade-at-final-stage/
Ukraine and Poland are negotiating a bilateral agreement that would set conditions on trade in some agricultural goods,
On a technical level, the talks are at the final stage, and quota levels for some agricultural goods coming from Ukraine to Poland could be agreed upon at the end of March, Siekierski said.

Ukraine could lose over $200 million if the border blockade led by Polish farmers is not lifted soon, Danylo Hetmantsev, chairman of the parliamentary finance committee, said on Feb. 15. https://kyivindependent.com/official-border-blockade-could-cost-ukraine-over-200-million/

⚡️ Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says Azerbaijan may plan (https://kyivindependent.com/pashinyan-says-azerbaijan-plans-full-scale-war-against-armenia/) 'full-scale war' against Armenia, Baku denies.

⚡️Explosion reportedly occurs at military plant https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-reportedly-occurs-at-military-plant-in-russias-altai-region/ in Russia's Altai region. Biysk Mayor Viktor Shchigrev called the explosion "a bang" and claimed it was part of a "technological process" happening at an enterprise. "There is no reason to worry," he said on Telegram. [ Uh huh]

⚡️ The Hill: US lawmakers mull 2 'plan Bs' for passing Ukraine aid.
As House Speaker Mike Johnson opposes the U.S. foreign aid bill allocating $60 billion for Ukraine, some Congress members are considering two alternative ways of pushing it through, The Hill reported on Feb. 15.
One possible way of circumventing the speaker's opposition is a discharge petition, a procedure that would force the bill onto the House's floor without needing Johnson's approval. https://kyivindependent.com/the-hill-us-lawmakers-mull-2-plan-bs-for-passing-ukraine-aid/

Trust in President Volodymyr Zelensky fell by around 5% following the dismissal of Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Feb. 8, a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) released on Feb. 15 found. https://kyivindependent.com/poll-trust-in-zelensky-fell-after-zaluzhnyi-dismissal/

The Irish-American oilfield service company Weatherford International has been added to Ukraine's list of "international sponsors of war" for continuing operations in Russia, the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) announced on Feb. 15. https://kyivindependent.com/weatherford-international-sponsor-of-war/

Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) has refused to remove Austria's Raiffeisen Bank from the international sponsors of war list, citing the bank still not having a clear plan to leave the Russian market, Reuters reported on Feb. 15. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-ukraine-refuses-to-remove-austrian-raiffeisen-bank-from-sponsors-of-war-list/

⚡️ Ukrainian detained https://kyivindependent.com/krainian-detained-in-poland-suspected-of-working-for-russian-intelligence-services/ in Poland suspected of working for Russian intelligence services.

⚡️FBI informant charged https://kyivindependent.com/fbi-informant-charged-with-lying-about-biden-familys-ties-to-ukrainian-business/ with lying about Biden family's ties to Ukrainian business.
The informant, Alexander Smirnov, told his handler in summer 2020 that the Bidens sought two $5 million bribes from the energy firm Burisma in 2015 and 2016.

⚡️ Czech volunteer fighting for Ukraine killed near Avdiivka. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-volunteer-fighting-for-ukraine-killed-near-avdiivka/

Medical cannabis is to be legalized in Ukraine to help veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder and provide pain relief to people with serious illnesses such as cancer, according to a law signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky on Feb. 15. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-legalizing-medical-cannabis/

⚡️ Trump suggests providing Ukraine aid as loans https://kyivindependent.com/trump-suggests-providing-ukraine-aid-as-loans/ rather than donations. [perhaps Ukraine should repay in the way that Trump manages his debts, hm?]

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 16, 2024
■ 🇷🇺 strikes up & more engagements reported
■ Most casualties this year so far, 7-day avg rises above 1000
■ Total casualties surpass 400k, 500k likely before end of May
■ Big equipment losses including 23 tanks

Oh gosh, reports Navalny is dead

@DancesWithDucks
I do believe that US intelligence had the Russian operational maps in front of them before the invasion. They knew exactly when and exactly how.

But to be brutally honest their strategy was to let Putin invade, put someone like Medvedchuk in and deal with the consequences after. If only American response before the invasion was anywhere near to what they shown after the October 7th Putin would have backed down. What really puzzles me is that everyone knows Putins phycological makeup, he has predictably opportunistic. He only understands force as a deterrent.

Reports confirmed. Alexei Navalny died in the Russian penal colony he was imprisoned in

Least surprising story of the day but I feel so sad about this 😭

😮. I can't believe it yet at the same time I can.

@Fox111

I do believe that US intelligence had the Russian operational maps in front of them before the invasion. They knew exactly when and exactly how.

I'm not sure about the degree of exactness but even without any James Bond characters doing their stuff I think you can take it as a given that the US, through for example the National Security Agency (NSA) would have had a very good idea...

Force disposition would have been obvious from satellite imaging (and not just imaging in the visual wavelengths).

In the days before the invasion there were lots of Rivet Joint and other interesting aircraft types flying around , openly visible on open tracking sites, no doubt hoovering up signals and other transmissions that would have been handy to read, and even if you don't have the capability or the time available to break any encryption you can learn a lot simply from the traffic analysis.

Another low in this doomed country.

I'm really upset and angry at the news of Navalny's death.
Bastards. He was such a good man.

I can't help but feel this is a symptom of Putin's growing confidence, another eff you to the US who warned Putin years ago than Navalny must not die in prison

Yes I agree on top of being really upsetting news it's very worrying and evidence of how little Putin cares what anyone thinks or sees of his actions.

It was inevitable from the moment he went back and he must have known it. But he walked his path anyway, to the end. A flawed man, but brave with huge integrity.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Navalny died in a Russian colony, Russian media reported

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Olaf Scholz have signed a bilateral security agreement.

The Pentagon announced the launch of six satellites that will be able to track hypersonic and ballistic missiles

🇩🇪Germany announces military aid worth €100 million to Ukraine.
It includes:
▫️77 MAN KAT1 A1 trucks with load-handling system;
▫️an unknown number of MRAP armored vehicles;
▫️bombs for arming drones;
▫️medical supplies and spare parts packages for various weapon systems.

The United Kingdom, along with Latvia, will supply Ukraine with thousands of drones as co-leaders of a large international coalition, the British government announced on its website.

🇪🇸Spain announces the transfer of a batch of M113 armored vehicles to Ukraine.
These are M113 armored tracked vehicles, two of which have been converted into ambulances. Several fire trucks, snowplows and personnel transportation vehicles will also be sent, as well as other equipment, including two light vessels, an electric generator and a water purification plant.

Ukraine intends to acquire modern Turkish KAAN fighters in the future, announced Ukrainian Ambassador to Ankara Vasily Bodnar.
Bodnar stated that Ukrainian specialists are currently involved in the development of the aircraft's engine. He added that Kyiv aims to procure these fighters alongside the F-16 in the future.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are restoring 155-mm towed howitzers M777 on the territory of Ukraine, — Logistics Forces Command.

Hungary has joined the coalition of NATO member states that will deal with the demining of Ukraine, Hungarian Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky said

People are thrown to the "basement" and beaten for speaking Ukrainian in the temporarily occupied territories.
Recently, a civilian couple managed to leave the temporarily occupied Kherson region. They spent almost two years in the occupied territory and suffered cruel treatment by the occupiers. The woman was twice taken to the "basement" and severely beaten because she spoke Ukrainian," informed Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets.

What rubbish. Where do you even get that from?

I've been watching the excellent document series "Putin vs The West" (still have the more recent ones to see).

A phrase that stuck in my mind was a diplomat from a Western power (can't remember who) saying that in the weeks leading up to the invasion, "we warned him [Putin] and we warned him" that he couldn't invade Ukraine with impunity.

There were several last ditch meetings with the Russians in which the Western powers rammed the message home. In Feb 2022 Ben Wallace took a delegation including a senior military officer to Moscow to meet face-to-face with Shoigu, to tell him call it off or else.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ben_Wallace_in_Moscow_(2022-02-11)_04.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Wallace_(politician)

The first series of Putin vs The West, "Path to War", is still available on BBC iPlayer.

The material I was talking about was in Episode 3.
Path to War: 3. A Dangerous Path
Leaders including Boris Johnson, Theresa May and Volodymyr Zelensky discuss how they confronted Putin and manoeuvred to try and prevent his invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p0dlz7gc/putin-vs-the-west