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Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

989 replies

MagicFox · 25/01/2024 13:25

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
221
blueshoes · 13/02/2024 08:49

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-12-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are training Russian drone operators at the Shayrat Air Base in Syria.
  • The Russian State Duma is considering a bill to restrict actors that the Russian government designates as “undesirable” from entering Russia, likely as part of ongoing efforts to censor opposition media outlets and dismantle ties between Russia and foreign and international non-governmental organizations.
  • Boris Nadezhdin, the only openly anti-war Russian presidential candidate, filed two lawsuits in the Russian Supreme Court challenging the Russian Central Election Commission’s (CEC) refusal to register him as a candidate as the Kremlin continues efforts to suppress popular opposition while trying to preserve the veneer of legitimacy of Russian presidential elections.
  • The European Union (EU) is beginning to take concrete steps towards possibly using frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Kreminna.
  • South Korean news outlet Yonhap News Agency reported on February 12 that North Korea has developed 240mm guided multiple rocket launcher system (MLRS) mortar that North Korea may export to Russia.
  • Russian authorities continue to use youth engagement programs to Russify Ukrainian youth.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
DancesWithDucks · 13/02/2024 12:08

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Republican lawmaker Senator Lindsey Graham defend https://kyivindependent.com/republican-lawmakers-defend-trumps-comments-about-backing-away-from-nato/ Trump's comments about backing away from NATO.

⚡️EU agrees https://kyivindependent.com/eu-agrees-on-new-measures-to-isolate-frozen-russian-funds/ on new measures to isolate frozen Russian funds

⚡️US Senate moves forward $95 billion (https://kyivindependent.com/us-senate-moves-forward-95-billion-ukraine-israel-aid-package/) Ukraine, Israel aid package. This progress sets the legislation on a trajectory towards imminent approval in the Senate this week, yet its prospects in the House remain uncertain

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested on Feb. 12 that he would not support a $95 billion foreign aid bill that included funding for Ukraine on the grounds that it did not address the ongoing crisis at the southern border.https://kyivindependent.com/speaker-johnson-rejects-ukraine-aid-bill-as-it-moves-forward-in-senate/ [Piece of shit]

⚡️Military intelligence: Russia reportedly buying Starlink https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-reportedly-buying-starlink-in-middle-east/ in 'Arab countries.'

Russia used a 3M22 Zircon anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile for the first time Oleksandr Ruvin, director of the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise said on Feb. 12. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-used-zircon-hypersonic-missile-for-first-time-experts-say/

⚡️Nasdaq announces https://kyivindependent.com/nasdaq-announces-partnership-with-ukraine/ partnership with Ukraine.
The leading financial exchange company Nasdaq announced a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Ukraine on Feb. 12, establishing plans for Nasdaq to provide assistance to Ukraine's economy and capital markets.

⚡️Zelensky to visit several European countries https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-visit-several-european-countries-to-lobby-for-ukraine-aid/ to lobby for Ukraine aid.

⚡️ Foreign Ministry: German police detain https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministry-german-police-detain-suspected-murderer-of-ukrainian-basketball-player/ suspect in Ukrainian basketball player murder case.

⚡️Media: Hungary's OTP Bank Group, which still works in Russia, interested in buying Ukrainian state-owned bank https://kyivindependent.com/media-hungarys-otp-bank-group-which-still-works-in-russia-interested-in-buying-ukrainian-state-owned-bank/

⚡️ Minister: Ukraine to produce https://kyivindependent.com/fedorov-ukraine-to-produce-thousands-of-long-range-drones-in-2024/ thousands of long-range drones capable of hitting targets deep in Russia in 2024.

Austria is considering taking much stronger steps to end its dependence on Russian gas, including plans to potentially end a multi-decade contract between the partially state-owned Austrian gas company OMV and the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom. https://kyivindependent.com/austria-exploring-how-to-end-russian-gas-import-contract-energy-minister-says/

The 2024 Munich Security Index showed that the perception of Russia as a threat in countries of the Group of Seven (G7) and BRICS (except Russia) has dropped significantly compared to last year's survey. https://kyivindependent.com/munich-security-index-perception-of-russia-as-threat-decreases-in-g7-countries-global-south/

⚡️Russia introduces bill https://kyivindependent.com/russia-introduces-bill-to-ban-foreign-state-funded-organizations/ to ban foreign state-funded organizations.
The law on "undesirable" organizations has existed since 2015 and has been used to target perceived opponents of Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime, including NGOs, independent media outlets, human rights groups, and others. There are currently 137 such organizations listed as being "undesirable."
The new proposed legislation would expand the list to include foreign state-funded organizations, such as media outlets like the BBC or Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that economic disputes between Poland and Ukraine may cause a "sudden emergence of anti-Ukrainian sentiments," the Polish Press Agency (PAP) reported on Feb. 11. https://kyivindependent.com/tusk-warns-economic-disputes-may-spark-anti-ukrainian-sentiments/ [this is serious - Tusk is wholly pro-Ukraine]

⚡️Moldovan authorities find warhead with 50 kg of explosives https://kyivindependent.com/moldovan-authorities-find-warhead-with-50-kg-of-explosives-at-crash-site-of-russian-drone/ at crash site of Russian drone. The drone fragments were found on Feb. 11, not long after a Russian strike against Odesa Oblast, which borders Moldova. Chisinau suspects that the drone was downed by Ukrainian air defenses during the Feb. 9-10 attack.

DTEK, Ukraine’s main private energy company, said on Feb. 13 that one of its thermal power plants was targeted in an overnight Russian attack. The shelling “severely damaged” the plant. https://kyivindependent.com/dtek-power-plant-damaged-in-overnight-russian-shelling-attack/

⚡️Court arrests https://kyivindependent.com/court-arrests-ex-defense-ministry-official-in-connection-with-weapons-procurement-fraud/ ex-Defense Ministry official in connection with weapons procurement fraud

⚡️Vice-president of German parliament arrives https://kyivindependent.com/vice-president-of-german-parliament-arrives-in-kyiv/ in Kyiv.

⚡️Police: Over 10,000 square meters of land contaminated https://kyivindependent.com/police-over-10-000-square-meters-of-land-contaminated-due-to-russian-feb-10-attack-on-kharkiv-oil-depot/ due to Russian Feb. 10 attack on Kharkiv oil depot.

⚡️Dnipro authorities evacuate https://kyivindependent.com/dnipro-authorities-evacuate-hospital-close-schools/ hospital, close schools after attack on energy infrastructure.

⚡️Russia announces https://kyivindependent.com/russia-announces-sanctions-against-18-uk-citizens/ sanctions against 18 UK citizens.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 13, 2024
■ Morestrikes due to better visibility while lack of ammo forces Ukraine to be selective with their strikes
■ Most single-day casualties this month so far
■ Special equipment, drone & APV losses well above 7-day average

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
MagicFox · 13/02/2024 12:11

Report from Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service on international security (Russia, China, terrorism in Europe): www.valisluureamet.ee/doc/raport/2024-en.pdf

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 13/02/2024 14:43

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

"NATO cannot be a military alliance dependent on the mood of the US president," stated the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell.

Forbes reports that the Ukrainian electronic warfare system "Pokrova" is capable of replacing navigation and confusing "Shahed" drones.
According to Thomas Withington, an expert at the British defense think tank RUSI, this system will require a network of perfectly synchronized transmitters. Ukrainian forces already utilize a similar synchronized radar control system in their national air defense network.
"Shahed" drones are known to be relatively well-protected against electronic warfare systems. They can operate even without a satellite signal, albeit for a limited time. However, Ukrainian engineers have discovered vulnerabilities in their navigation systems after dismantling several drones.

The Armed Forces have initiated the use of the Vampire laser anti-drone systems to shoot down "Shakhed," as reported by Defense Express.

Russia is experiencing a shortage of yuan as stocks of Chinese currency rapidly diminish, particularly since Chinese banks began refusing to work with Russian companies and process payments for them.
As of January 1, 2024, Russian banks held only RMB 6.8 billion, marking a 25.7% decrease compared to November and representing the lowest figure since June 2022 ($5.9 billion, despite being at $14.1 billion just last February).

The Russian Federation has put Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on the wanted list.

One of the largest technology corporations in the world, the German company Siemens AG, is closing its business in Russia, which it has been doing since 1853. It was then that the first bureau of the company was opened in the Russian Empire

The anticipated capacity [of the new Rheinmetall plant] is 200,000 artillery shells annually, with a portion earmarked for shipment to Ukraine.

Ukrainian developers of artificial intelligence at UADamage are actively working on technology to expedite the search for unexploded mines and projectiles, as stated by Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov.

The Austrian oil and gas company OMV, along with the Slovak company Transpetrol, have officially announced their decision to discontinue work on a new pipeline project. The project aimed to transport Russian oil from the Druzhba pipeline through Slovakia to the Schwechat oil refinery near Vienna, as reported by ORF.
The construction of the pipeline through Slovakia was initiated by OMV in 2003. The project entailed the construction of a 62-kilometer pipeline between the Schwechat Refinery and Bratislava to connect to the Russian Druzhba oil pipeline.
After more than 20 years of unsuccessful attempts to obtain all necessary permits from Slovakia, further investment in this project is deemed impractical.

Russia could potentially suffer heavy losses in armored vehicles for another three years, resorting to replacing damaged tanks with older models, according to Reuters.
Citing a report by analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the agency reveals that since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Federation has lost over 3,000 tanks, equivalent to its entire pre-war arsenal.
According to the Military Balance, Russia currently has 1,750 main battle tanks, ranging from the T-55 from the 1950s to the modern T-80 and T-90. An additional 4,000 tanks are held in storage.

Poland's Agriculture Minister Czeslaw Sekerski apologized to Ukraine for the spilled grain incident that happened on Sunday, calling such actions "not quite an adequate form of protest," but noted that "farmers in various countries often resort to this."

DancesWithDucks · 13/02/2024 15:10

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Elon Musk calls https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-13/musk-predicts-putin-can-t-lose-in-ukraine-opposes-senate-bill** on Americans to pressure senators not to approve support for Ukraine
Musk says that there is no chance that Putin will lose the war, and spending on Ukraine does not help. Continuing the war, he says, will not help Ukraine. He believes that Putin will go to the end, otherwise he will be killed.

In 2024, Ukraine will produce thousands of long-range drones capable of delivering deep strikes against Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov said.
According to him, there are already up to 10 companies that produce drones capable of reaching Moscow and St. Petersburg.

🇪🇺🇨🇳 The European Union plans to impose sanctions against Chinese companies for helping Russia for the first time.
Bloomberg cites the document as saying that three companies from mainland China may be subject to sanctions, but their names are not disclosed, nor is it clear how they helped Russia. The restrictions include a ban on trade and transactions with these companies. The draft sanctions still need to be approved by all EU members.
Russia is purchasing Starlink satellite Internet terminals from Elon Musk's SpaceX in Arab countries, the Defense Intelligence Agency reports.
Intelligence indicates that in a recent radio interception, the Russians are discussing relevant acquisition opportunities. One of the occupiers says that the Arabs bring everything: wires, Wi-Fi, a router, and one device costs 200 thousand rubles (about $2200).

🔥Russian media report that the MiG plant in Moscow, which manufactures and maintains the eponymous brand of combat aircraft, has caught fire.

Ecuador plans to transfer Russian Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine via the United States in exchange for American UH-60 Black Hawks, but there is a problem.
The Infodefensa portal writes that the Ecuadorian Air Force has few such helicopters, and only one is in good working order. The rest are only good for spare parts. https://www.infodefensa.com/texto-diario/mostrar/4715427/ecuador-recibira-helicopteros-blackhawk-estados-unidos

Musk Says Putin Can’t Lose in Ukraine, Opposes Senate Bill

Elon Musk told US Republican senators “there is no way in hell” that Russian President Vladimir Putin could lose the war on Ukraine, weighing in on a conflict that has been affected by Musk’s own Starlink satellite services.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-13/musk-predicts-putin-can-t-lose-in-ukraine-opposes-senate-bill

DancesWithDucks · 13/02/2024 15:10

Can't someone put a muzzle on that egotistical walking disaster?

Igotjelly · 13/02/2024 15:49

Sorry but only one word adequately describes Elon Musk and that’s cunt 😡

DancesWithDucks · 13/02/2024 15:51

a lovely thing from the soldiers for anyone who has telegram

https://t.me/United24media/18513

UNITED24Media

Our defenders are talented in everything!

https://t.me/United24media/18513

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 13/02/2024 15:56

DancesWithDucks · 13/02/2024 15:10

Can't someone put a muzzle on that egotistical walking disaster?

Muzzle not enough. Throat cancer so he can no longer speak when he opens his big mouth.

Metastasising.

MagicFox · 13/02/2024 17:37

Great address to congress by Mick Romney: x.com/senatorromney/status/1757216286906499539?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

OP posts:
MagicFox · 13/02/2024 17:37

Mitt, sorry. Autocorrect!

OP posts:
Fox111 · 13/02/2024 18:30

MagicFox · 13/02/2024 17:37

Great speech! Why doesn't every American politician think like him.

blueshoes · 13/02/2024 18:48

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 13/02/2024 15:56

Muzzle not enough. Throat cancer so he can no longer speak when he opens his big mouth.

Metastasising.

Did you just say that out loud 😆

Ducks, a haunting melody. Thanks for sharing.

MagicFox · 13/02/2024 19:01

Why John Bolton Is Certain Trump Really Wants to Blow Up NATO

www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/13/bolton-trump-2024-nato-00141160

OP posts:
MagicFox · 13/02/2024 19:44

Biden on Trump's comments. This actually made me feel a bit weepy: x.com/djrothkopf/status/1757489787265491321?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

OP posts:
Mb76 · 13/02/2024 20:01

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 13/02/2024 15:56

Muzzle not enough. Throat cancer so he can no longer speak when he opens his big mouth.

Metastasising.

i wish for him to go bankrupt and be forgotten and cancelled. What a twat.

MagicFox · 13/02/2024 20:15

Good piece by Phillips O Brien: What Happens to Europe If America Withdraws?
If the United States turns its back on its best allies, Europe will face the Russian threat alone.

plus.thebulwark.com/p/what-happens-europe-after-america-ukraine?utm_medium=web

OP posts:
blueshoes · 13/02/2024 22:01

MagicFox · 13/02/2024 19:44

Biden on Trump's comments. This actually made me feel a bit weepy: x.com/djrothkopf/status/1757489787265491321?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

Yes, Biden said it.

It is outrageous. Trump just turned the whole world on its head.

Natsku · 14/02/2024 05:09

MagicFox · 13/02/2024 19:44

Biden on Trump's comments. This actually made me feel a bit weepy: x.com/djrothkopf/status/1757489787265491321?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

Oh that was well said

MagicFox · 14/02/2024 07:29

I can't remember if I posted this RUSI report before so here it is again:

Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024

www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024

OP posts:
MagicFox · 14/02/2024 08:46

Security assessment report from Norwegian Intelligence Services: www.etterretningstjenesten.no/publikasjoner/focus/Focus24_contents

OP posts:
MagicFox · 14/02/2024 09:13

Good podcast interview with Dr Helen von Bismarck

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/this-is-not-a-drill-with-gavin-esler/id1593634121?i=1000645062497

The fear that a re-elected Trump would pull the US out of NATO haunts European leaders. Now he says he’d actively encourage Putin to attack European countries who haven’t “paid their bills”. Could a second Trump presidency really open the door for war in Europe? What contingency plans is NATO making? Has Europe really underspent on defence? And is Putin exploiting cracks in the European hard right and left for his own ends?
Gavin Esler talks to historian and Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Dr Helene von Bismarck and Peter Apps, author of Deterring Armageddon: A Biography Of NATO, about Trump’s dangerous ideas and populism’s Putin problem.
• “It would be incredibly naive to imagine that, if Trump is re-elected, Europe will simple reorganise itself to compensate… That takes time and it is time we don’t have.” – Helene von Bismarck
• “Regardless of whether we get another Trump presidency, the days in which Europe was America’s top priority are over.” – Peter Apps
• “In the next five to eight years it’s not impossible that Russia might attack a NATO state… We have to start preparing to prevent this worst-case scenario.” – Helene von Bismarck
• “The head of the Estonian military talks in terms of Russia being able to recharge enough to attack a NATO country within one year of fighting stopping in Ukraine.” – Peter Apps

OP posts:
Surplus2requirements · 14/02/2024 09:34

Another Russian warship upgraded to submarine off Crimea

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