Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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One of the founders of Twitter started Bluesky up. For a while it was part of Twitter while it was developing but after Musk took over Bluesky separated. Now it's a bit of a (admittedly quiet) refuge from Twitter, like Mastodon and perhaps Facebook's Threads.

Mind you, the name Threads reminds me of that TV film Threads by Barry Hines, which is a traumatizing foretelling of what nuclear war might be like for Sheffield.

Just saw the full Trump clip where he talks about NATO. Missing the point spectacularly but I actually snorted coffee when he said Stoltenberg is his biggest fan 😂

I'm just lost with bluesky, don't know how to get interesting things into my feed so I just ignore it.

Apparently you can customize it a lot but I just followed the things I'm interested in - mainly Ukraine, some funny stuff.

There is a good analysis by Anders Puck Nielsen in relation on how the war between NATO and Russia might unravel. Very careful escalation on a far away territory so to trigger article 5 in theory but practically making sure that no one will have enough incentive to engage.

Good analysis, but I think that if they did try to seize some territory from Finland (for example), if the Fins fight to retake and you have an active conflict with Finland taking casualties, NATO would step in.

I would expect a rapid response by NATO air forces and if the Russians didn't back down, ground troops and equipment would follow.

The Ukraine/Israel aid bill has passed another procedural hurdle today.

Massive Ukraine, Israel aid package overcomes key Senate hurdle as 18 Republicans vote with Democrats

That's excellent news MissConduct

The Ukraine/Israel aid bill has passed another procedural hurdle today.

Gives some hope ...

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Finland would fight, Norway and Sweden and probably Estonia would help immediately (Norway especially as they're in the same situation with a remote border area) UK ought to get involved quickly too because they made that bilateral defence agreement. Agree NATO would most likely have a rapid response then.

Trump is playing a scary game by undermining NATO security when the treaty relies on unequivocal steadfast mutual support. I think this countries most alarmed would be the European countries that do not have close colonial ties to the US e.g. Britain or those that we would consider Western Europe. Weakness by the West has been detected by Russia before and I am sure the rantings of a putative US President will be watched closely in Moscow.

It's as if Trump does not mind the establishment of the USSR by force and we cannot face this prospect in 10 years time. It's as if the defence spending argument is being used to try and reduce the necessity of US involvement in Europe if an ex member of the Soviet bloc was attacked.

The prospect of wider conflict increases because of uncetainty. Russia may be prepared to gamble by invading the Baltic states by example as there is a level of ambiguity about the existence of a determined NATO repomse.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Danilov warns https://kyivindependent.com/danilov-warns-of-worsening-battlefield-situation-if-west-does-not-increase-weapons-supply-to-ukraine/ of worsening battlefield situation if West won't increase weapons supply.
National Security and Defense Council secretary said weapons supplies by Iran and North Korea changed the front-line situation.

⚡️ Military intelligence: Iran, Hezbollah train Russian drone operators https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-iran-hezbollah-train-russian-drone-operators-in-syria/ in Syria.

⚡️ US Defense Secretary Austin hospitalized again https://kyivindependent.com/us-defense-secretary-austin-hospitalized-passes-duties-to-deputy/ passes duties to Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was admitted to a critical care unit in Washington, DC, due to "symptoms suggesting an emergent bladder issue," Reuters reported on Feb. 11, citing Walter Reed Military Medical Center.

⚡️ Commander: Russia deploying https://kyivindependent.com/commander-russia-increasingly-deploys-armored-groups-to-storm-avdiivka/ more armored groups alongside its assault infantry groups, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of Ukraine's Tavria group fighting on the southeastern front lines, reported on Feb. 11.

⚡️Commander: Russia stops using 'human wave' attacks in Avdiivka, https://kyivindependent.com/commander-russia-stops-using-human-wave-attacks-in-avdiivka-instead-deploys-small-assault-groups/ instead deploys small assault groups supported by aviation to probe Ukrainian defenses, Dmytro Riumshyn, the commander of Ukraine's 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, said in an interview published on Feb. 12.

⚡️IMF delegation arrives in Kyiv https://kyivindependent.com/imf-delegation-arrives-in-kyiv-for-talks-with-ukrainian-officials/ for talks with Ukrainian officials.

⚡️ Media: Japan to pledge https://kyivindependent.com/media-japan-to-pledge-106-million-for-ukraines-reconstruction/ $106 million for Ukraine's reconstruction.

⚡️Former PM Alexander Stubb elected https://kyivindependent.com/former-pm-alexander-stubb-elected-president-of-finland/ president of Finland. Throughout his campaign, Stubb promised unconditional support for Ukraine and called for greater NATO partnership among European allies

⚡️ Musk denies https://kyivindependent.com/musk-denies-starlink-sales-to-russia/ Starlink sales to Russia.
Businessman [and total prick] Elon Musk on Feb. 11 said that his SpaceX company sold no Starlink terminals to Russia, directly or indirectly.

⚡️CNN: Russia recruits https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-russia-recruited-15-000-nepalis-to-fight-in-ukraine/ 15,000 Nepalis to fight in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Nepali government claims only about 200 of its citizens are fighting in Ukraine on the Russian side with at least 13 having been killed in action and four captured as prisoners of war.

⚡️Mstyslav Chernov wins https://kyivindependent.com/mstyslav-chernov-wins-at-directors-guild-for-20-days-in-mariupol/ Directors Guild Award for ‘20 days in Mariupol.’
The “20 Days in Mariupol” documentary comprised 30 hours of footage shot in Mariupol before the crew left the besieged city.

⚡️ UK Defense Ministry: War in Ukraine likely contributing https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-war-in-ukraine-likely-contributes-to-shortage-of-doctors-across-russia/ to doctor shortages in Russia. [although the irony of the UK saying that Russia is short of doctors is heavy, when people in some areas can't get an appointment for weeks and sometimes have to wait weeks or months for treatment. This in the 6th biggest economy in the world]

Ukrainian border guards said on Feb. 11 that they had brought down a quadcopter carrying 22.5 kilograms of hashish with an estimated value of Hr 13 million ($346,000). https://kyivindependent.com/drone-with-hr-13-million-worth-of-hash-brought-down-by-border-guards/

⚡️ Minister: Ukraine aims https://kyivindependent.com/minister-ukraine-aims-to-shift-electronic-warfare-production-to-commercial-markets/ to shift electronic warfare production to commercial markets.

⚡️ National Resistance Center: Mounting cases of Russian commanders killing own service personnel. kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-mounting-cases-of-russian-commanders-killing-own-service-personnel/
There is a growing tendency among Russian officers in the Western Military District to commit violence against their subordinates, Ukraine's National Resistance Center reported on Feb. 11, citing undisclosed sources.
A number of military court verdicts related to murders of service personnel by on-duty unit commanders have been recorded in Russia's Kursk Oblast, the center claimed.

Mistaken for spies: Ukraine’s bird watchers https://kyivindependent.com/mistaken-for-spies-bird-watchers-find-comfort-and-destruction/ find comfort and destruction

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 12, 2024
■strikes at a high level whilekeeps defending
■ Casualties below average, 400k milestone still expected on Feb 17
■ Modest landbased equipment losses but big drone losses
■ Oryx: 3412added to records (13:11 after removal of duplicates)

@DdraigGoch

Si vis pacem, para bellum
"If you want peace prepare for war"

Absolutely right we should look back at the ancient wisdom to guide us.

I would also add the Chinese saying: "The wise win before the fight while ignorant fight to win"

And it's the problem with the Western ambiguity and inaction that people like Putin can sense and strike.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk as Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander, replacing current Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi.
• Russian forces appear to have constructed a 30-kilometer-long barrier dubbed the “tsar train” in occupied Donetsk Oblast, possibly to serve as a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults.
• Ukrainian military observers indicated that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is not as productive as Russian authorities portray it to be, but that the Russian DIB is still capable of sustaining Russia’s war effort.
• Russia’s current limited DIB production capacity and insufficient serial tank production lines are not guarantees that Russia will struggle to produce enough materiel to sustain its war effort at its current pace or in the long term.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• CNN reported on February 11 that Russia has recruited as many as 15,000 Nepalis to fight in Ukraine, many of whom complained about poor conditions and lack of adequate training before their deployment to the most active frontlines in Ukraine.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to solidify social control over youth and students in occupied Ukraine and to culturally indoctrinate them into Russian identity and ideology.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

⚡️Yesterday, a procedural vote on the aid package for Ukraine and Israel occurred in the US Senate. The vote resulted in 67 votes in favor of ending the debate on the topic and expediting the consideration of amendments.

North Korea has announced the development of guided missiles for Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), raising concerns about potential proliferation to Russia, according to Yonhap.
The newly developed ammunition features a caliber of 240 mm, and North Korean military conducted tests of the system last week. Reports suggest that the system, equipped with these new shells, is currently deployed near the border with South Korea and is aimed at the capital, Seoul. Hong Ming Union, a senior researcher at the South Korean Institute of National believes, "These projectiles likely serve a dual purpose. Practically, there is a possibility of considering them for export to Russia, while politically, they may be intended to exert pressure on South Korea."

Director Mstislav Chernov, known for the film "20 Days in Mariupol," was honored as the laureate of the Directors Guild of America award for outstanding achievements in documentary cinema in 2023.

In Germany, a tragic incident occurred where 17-year-old Ukrainian basketball player Volodymyr Yermakov was killed with the knife wounds, as reported by the Basketball Federation of Kyiv.

Orbán stated that Ukraine should serve as a "buffer zone" between Russia and the West, offering specific security guarantees but not being admitted into the EU or NATO.

The Main Intelligence Directorate has confirmed that the Russians have Starlink terminals

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇫🇷French President Emmanuel Macron has postponed his trip to Ukraine, which was to take place on February 14-15, "for security reasons."
During his working visit, he was supposed to visit Kyiv and Odesa and announce the creation of a €200 million fund to be paid in the form of donations for civilian projects.

In Dusseldorf, Germany, 17-year-old Ukrainian basketball player Volodymyr Yermakov was killed after he and his friend Artem Kozachenko were attacked with knives in the street
❗️UPD: Eyewitnesses reported that the boy was killed by a group of migrants from the Middle East who were shouting anti-Ukrainian slogans. [Dear God, this is beyond words].

In Germany, police have already detained the attacker on Ukrainian basketball players in Dusseldorf. Investigative actions are underway. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has taken https://www.facebook.com/oleh.nikolenko.ua/posts/10231080663415222?ref=embed_post the investigation into the murder of Volodymyr Yermakov under special control.

Starlink terminals are freely available on the territory of Russia, they get there through third countries, - representative of the DIU Yusov on the air of the telethon.

❗️At the Yagodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint, Polish farmers protesting began to pour grain out of Ukrainian trucks
According to the author of the video, the blockade participants cut the seals off several trucks with a grinder.

A 30 km long train was assembled by the occupiers in Donetsk region - from the railway station in Olenivka to Volnovakha, DeepState reports, having studied satellite images
Such an engineering structure can be considered a separate line of defense, experts say.

The murder of the young lad is absolutely horrendous in so many ways.

This was him.

I think I've said before that my DD competes for the national team in a sport. We were at a competition at the weekend and were speaking to one of the Ukrainian competitors (who are always unfailingly polite, well spoken and show impeccable sportsmanship). He was saying that he fled to the UK at the start of the 2022 invasion and now can't return as he's just turned 18 and would need to fight (he's currently the sole earner in his family and has 4 young siblings. He said if he wasn't he would go and fight without a second's thought). His father was caught in a Russian missile attack on the frontlines and is currently in a coma but he can't visit due to the fact he wouldn't be able to leave again. It was utterly heart breaking.

Gosh it's so so awful, poor boy

In Dusseldorf, Germany, 17-year-old Ukrainian basketball player Volodymyr Yermakov was killed after he and his friend Artem Kozachenko were attacked with knives in the street
❗️UPD: Eyewitnesses reported that the boy was killed by a group of migrants from the Middle East who were shouting anti-Ukrainian slogans. [Dear God, this is beyond words].

Well, we'll have to wait for the results of the investigation, but if that wasn't the fruit of internet sprites doing some targeted stirring, I'll eat my keyboard.

There's very much a theme of "I don't care who wins, but I'll pay to watch" in pitting groups against each other.

Sorry if this is a bit off-topic. We've seen the effects of corruption on Russia's military readiness. It seems it's a problem in China as well. Missiles were filled with water instead of rocket fuel, and the covers on missile silos were too dodgy to open reliably. The article is from The War Zone website, a reliable military news source.

Water-Filled Missiles, Silo Problems Behind China Purge: Report New reported details about Chinese corruption allegations raise questions about the country’s military readiness and modernization efforts.

It's not off topic at all, China and Russia are cooperating

... and this thread has always diverged into interesting byways, some of which turn out to be relevant later iirc.

I think the odd trip offtopic adds to the thread.

@Igotjelly that is just absolutely heartbreaking. That poor boy and his mother and siblings.