When does terrorism become war?

[mids2019]

Looking at the news this morning I think the media are finding it difficult to register Palestinian attacks as a terrorism event or simply an attack of one state against another.

I suppose whether you view 5000 tickets as a terrorist atrocity or a declaration of war is dependent on your views on whether Palestine can ever be a functioning state. We plainly in Europe would describe such events as terrorism in that civilian populations have been targeted but in the eternally challenged middle East the use of such a word has political connurtations.

Is this a terrorist attack on Israel?

I work in regional security and specifically teach Middle Eastern foreign relations and security, and I would never start this thread because it just becomes garbage anti-semitism immediately unfortunately. I wish a productive conversation was possible.

It's certainly very difficult when any criticism of a political administration is instantly labeled as anti Semitic.

Frankly, that's not true. Most Israelis are extremely critical of their own government, yet are able to do so without using anti-semitic tropes or singling out Israel for things all other governments do. I find it very easy to avoid being anti-Semitic, if you find yourself struggling, that might be a good insight into your biases.

What do you think the chances are of diplomatic channels (including Jordan) being able to prevent escalation?

You don't need to work in regional security to know that the chance of that happening is ridiculously low...

If Special Operations cannot safely return hostages, I would expect Israel to work with Jordan, or perhaps more successfully Egypt, to leverage reductions in hostilities or temporary ceasefires to leverage the return of the hostages. The biggest issue that prevents this is that Hamas do not have robust control over the West Bank, and often find themselves preferring to put down arms while also being unable to constrain PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad), Hezbollah and other extremist groups who operate with impunity in Gaza.

On the contrary, access to the Internet does not and has not clarified areas of conflict around the world. Especially the Israeli-Palestinian one.

Closer to home, there's still a lot of people who think the SAS killing of the PIRA 3 was "murder". If they'd googled the actual court rulings, they'd have read the SAS were cleared of premeditated murder. Fully rejected by the court.

Propaganda isn't easily debunked precisely because it appeals to people's emotions. Perception usually gets a head start on the reality.

I havent used any anti semetic tropes and my condemnation of oppressive governments is universal.

Its really not something I struggle with.

Im also equally comfortable condemning the terrorism which we've all seen today.

@fioritura Britain was up to some very unsavoury things when my GPs moved here, it is utter bollocks to say they were complicit in that, and it is utter bollocks to say that Jews (or anyone else) who move to Israel are complicit in the direct suffering of Palestinians. Many Jews move to Israel because they face intolerable antisemitism where they are. That is their right, and in fact it is their right to do so whatever their reason. I strongly suspect you have no such judgement of people choosing to move to the US, or any number of other countries whose governments' actions we may disagree with. In fact how about people moving to the UK right now? We know there are many. Are they complicit in the war in Yemen?

Your anti-Israeli sentiment is not all that well hidden, I have to say.

Ah, I took so long to reply to your inflammatory post that I didn't spot that it had been deleted. Never mind.

The reality is that in the Middle East, both Israelis and Palestinians have seen support a two State solution decline to the lowest its been.

A poll in Feb 2023 showed 20% of Israeli Jews aged 18-34 and around 30% of Palestinians in the same age group now support this.

At the same time, Palestinian support for Hamas has increased to 53% and President Abbas has lost control over a northern swath of the West Bank, including cities such as Jenin and Nablus, giving rise to armed militant groups, which in turn has led to regular, deadly incursions by Israeli troops.

Hamas has observed in past that each time they attack Israel, their own level of support increases. But it also declines after a few months when Palestinians have seen Hamas achieved very little.

So, this time Hamas has not only abducted a number of Israeli citizens, but has murdered a number also. The intent is two fold:

1. Show Palestinians Hamas are "strong".

2. Trade Israeli hostages for prisoners and other things.

Hamas hope this will increase support, especially if they manage to get a concession from Israel. A whopping 77% of Palestinians believe Hamas won the 2021 conflict even though they didn't achieve concessions. That kind of belief has led to this day.

If Israel actually agrees to concessions for hostages, it'll look weak at home and set a dangerous precedent. Hamas will take it as a reason to do it again in future so Israel will have to fortify their borders more not less.

In effect, Hamas terrorism runs the real risk of making life worse for Palestinians, especially in Gaza. But Hamas won't care about that too much as it is their MO to coercively control Palestinians. Besides, Hamas currently enjoys over 50% Palestinian support.

That's more than Abbas and Palestinian Authority have. Many Palestinians see their government as weak and useless so Hamas terrorism appeals more. Of course, the Palestinians who support Hamas have convinced themselves that Hamas isn't carrying out terrorism. And if they are..well, its justified, they say.

But they'll ultimately be the ones to suffer.

Hamas do not have the military capability to hurt Israel in a way that'll allow them to win outright or achieve significant concessions from Israel. So Hamas will be relying on psychological terrorism from today as well as global propaganda.

Make no mistake, Hamas is part of an international terrorism network which includes Provisional Sinn Féin/Provisional IRA. That link can still be seen on Republican murals in Belfast, for example. PIRA and Hamas trained at the same camps in Libya. In 2002, PIRA was caught in Colombia training the FARC terrorist group.

This is a complicated conflict and the two State solution seems to be dead. The USA will not admit that publicly.

@DownNative

Good post that sadly describes the hopelessness of the situation.

@AutumnCrow

"What do you think the chances are of diplomatic channels (including Jordan) being able to prevent escalation?"

+++

The Jordanians are an oasis of stability surrounded by nut job neighbours and if they are smart (which they usually are) they'll stay way away from this situation.

@SurpriseItsMeHorseyNeighNeigh

"Of course the actions of Israel don't justify attacks on Israelian civilians, but the actions of Hamas justify attacks and oppression of Palestinians. The israelian army has been shooting Palestinian citizen from behind. And assisted settlers who literally went from house to house like the terrorists did today and attacked Palestinians. But that won't make them lose anyone's sympathy, will it?

The double standard. Hate speech is acceptable if it is towards Palestinians.."

++++

To be blunt it doesn't matter what you or I individually think or believe, what matters is the consensus of opinion worldwide.

You have to see that the optics of Hamas kidnapping women and children and taking them hostage and killing civilians does not cast them in a favourable light in the world wide media or in Governments across the world.

The actions of Hamas today has set back sympathy and support for the Palestinians throughout the world. That is the reality of today.

Oh do fuck off, lots of those 73000 will be making the move because they have faced intolerable antisemitism in their own countries. Some will be migrants from other countries - plenty flee to Israel because it is rightly seen as a rare bright spot, an oasis of democracy and tolerance in a world full of nutjobs.

The idea that Israel is somehow uniquely evil and that those who live there are complicit with this is antisemitism, pure and simple.

This thread is depressing to see how much some will justify their Jew-hate.

It's the worst it's been for a long time.

One thing I personally want people to understand is that the Northern Ireland "peace" process is NOT a model that can work in Israel, Gaza and West Bank. One of the reasons for that is PIRA were very much on the ropes, so the security forces achieved their ends. A terrorist group doesn't go from wanting outright victory to agreeing to a peace process out of the goodness of their hearts. Now, the reason you don't really hear the British Government making explicit the role of the security forces in the peace process is because our Government has been pushing the propaganda of the peace since 1998. Something we know from a document some years ago where the Government used the media to push that. There is nothing in the Belfast Agreement that concedes a single demand to PSF/PIRA they spent decades murdering.

Hamas, on the other hand, has not been infiltrated and weakened from the inside out the way PIRA was. Hamas is still strong enough to carry out terrorist attacks for a long time to come yet. Today was a surprise attack on Israel which, from Hamas point of view, worked.

But Israel will not make the same mistake twice. You have to remember Israel is very good at security and counter-terrorism because it has had to be with FIVE hostile States surrounding it. The Arab world isn't exactly in favour of Israel's right to exist as a State.

Combine that with how Hamas uses civilians and civilian infrastructure as a shield against Israeli attacks in order to attack Israel via rockets, lawfare and global propaganda.

You can appreciate how and why Israel is well armed in a variety of ways.

Hamas cannot defeat Israel, but Israel has the capability to defeat Hamas. However, Israel is constrained by Hamas use of lawfare and global propaganda which seeks out useful idiots globally, especially in the West,to support Hamas.

As I said to the OP @mids2019 earlier, how do you think Israel can show its targeting Hamas when Hamas are using civilians as a protective shield?

So, Hamas thinks its winning the propaganda war and that sustains its ideology of "Palestine will be free from the river to the sea". If this sounds like a threat, the Israelis certainly take it that way based on history. For example, in 1966, Syrian leader Hafez Al-Assad, insisted in no uncertain terms that, “We shall only accept war and the restoration of the usurped land … to oust you, aggressors, and throw you into the sea for good.”

If those who advocate a "free Palestine" really believe it doesn't mean this, can they explain why the very slogan does NOT suggest a unity of Israelis and Palestinians?

The reality is those who are pro-"free Palestine" believe the Israeli Jewish population shouldn't be in the Middle East. If they did, their rhetoric would stress a unity of both peoples who both have long history in the Middle East.

The slogan itself is similar to PIRAs propaganda of pushing the Brits into the Irish Sea. And that didn't mean the Government or Army alone as it included Protestants and Catholic "collaborators".

Make no mistake, the Northern Ireland conflict is nowhere near as complex or as complicated as the Israeli-Palestinian one. It's popular to connect the two, but it doesn't hold up as they are very different.

Israel's constraints are significant, partially due to the anti-semitic emphasis the press and global governance focuses on their actions. I worked at their Ministry of Defence for several years, and having worked in this sector for a long time across multiple countries - I've never seen anything like it.

So say Israel confirm the location of a weapons factory in Gaza. First, they will drop leaflets warning nearby residents of raids/strikes, hack the radio to spread the evacuation message, even call people's mobile numbers and make sure they're able to get out and don't need additional assistance e.g. for elderly or disabled family members. They do a roof knock, effectively a non-damaging strike that makes a loud noise, for any last minute hangers on - and only then strike the building. They then are hounded in the press, get the UN calling for tribunals - but no military I've ever worked with has bothered doing any of those things. Not the British, not the Americans, not the Saudis, not the Emiratis, not the Australians. No one.

Several times, I had my head in my hands in frustration at this 'human rights' orientation, because it also allows terrorists to escape and elongates the war. Egypt several times around a decade ago were very much on the side of carpet bombing Gaza, and had to be talked down by Israel, despite the positive impact that would technically have on Israeli security. The Israelis have consistently opted for a longer conflict with fewer deaths - and now this invasion from an area Israel left without demanding anything in return, even leaving hospital and school equipment that Hamas burnt to the ground because it was Israeli.

We can criticise the Israeli government on many things, but military operations and tactics aren't one of them. The young girls who got raped in southern Israel today weren't given any warnings, just violated in the worst ways by Palestinian terrorists. It's a shame that humanity does not beget humanity.

Consider too the expulsion/displacement of 750,000 Jews from the neighbouring Arab States.

Hillel Neuer addressed this to the UN some years ago:

It's really refreshing to see some people on this thread who actually know what they're talking about and have a good understanding of the massive issues.

Thank you @DownNative!

@DownNative Thanks for your posts, really insightful.

Why are you quoting a pro occupation think thank on here? That whole channel on youtube is nothing but propaganda. There is no equivalent to the situation in palestine. Under ottoman rule, they were happy. Jews populated many countries in the middle east 3-5 percent in most cases. They only
started leaving arab countries after the creation of Israel not before.

Stop rocking the boat. You need to embrace the narrative, my friend.

Israel is good. Palestinians, not so much.

You didn't seriously think wrong thought was tolerated here, did you?

But Hamas ARE terrorists.

Just like the Mujahideen.