Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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Kharkiv and Kherson represent big chunks of the liberated land. In Kharkiv the AFU routed the opposition. They are now making progress south towards the sea of Azov.

This is really interesting.

There has been something of a disagreement between the UK and Washington over this. Biden seems to have said no, but the UK have been pushing on this.

I would also hazard that the recent visit to Turkey is significant here too.

There also seems to have been some confirmation that Ukraine WILL be involved at the meeting that starts tomorrow in some form.

Parts of Donestsk have been liberated which were under Russian control since 2018. There are others parts that under Ukrainian control now which were past the 2014 line of control too.

@MissConductUS thank you for the WSJ article on the Russian diaspora in Germany. I have witnessed this myself, with my family in Germany. They used to have Russian friends, many of them, but majority have turned out to be pro Russia ….

By the way a lot of Germany’s decisions about supplying weapons to Ukraine have been painfully slow, particularly at the start of the war, because of the large Russian diaspora and their influence…

I have been catching up on some of the earlier posts and yesterdays. I picked up this which @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar posted this AM:

https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukrainian-troops-advance-south-of-bakhmut/

My recollection was that Russia held the south and east perimeters. If the city is becoming slowly encircled it would be a disaster for the Russian army. How many troops and kit do they have in there? Can you imagine if 5,000 or more troops had to surrender.

I can see morale sinking gradually. Wagner group mostly side lined. The dissatisfaction with Russian military leadership, with Putin also. Sweden's access to Nato. Whatever might happen at Vilnius. Kerch Bridge under attack again. A few disasters on the battlefield and I can see Russian confidence waning. More will follow. Nail after nail after nail.

A few isolated incidents, that gradually become more and more. This tends to suggest a pattern. Even if accidental it will have no less an effect at the Russian receiving end.

I live with unfettered ambition.

You're welcome, @Mb76. For a business focused newspaper, their coverage of the war has been really good.

NPR is confirming the news about Turkey agreeing to Sweden's acceptance into NATO.

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/10/1186821586/nato-stoltenberg-turkey-sweden

@Chatillon the latest that I read was that supplies to Bakhmut are still getting in but evacuations are more difficult (Don't really understand how one can be easy and the other hard)

Ukraine holds the heights and are very close to one flanking village.

Russia's brought up more and more troops to Bakhmut, including some from (I think) Avdiivka which was under Ukrainian attack, so it's kinda interesting to see what will unfold between the two now.

At some points the Russians have been making advances, but too tired to check back now.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1678487540595060742
Khadrov troops rushed to aid the soldiers retreating from Bahkmut,

YESSSSS

Jens Stoltenberg

@jensstoltenberg
·
2h
Glad to announce that after the meeting I hosted with @RTErdogan & @SwedishPM, President Erdogan has agreed to forward #Sweden's accession protocol to the Grand National Assembly ASAP & ensure ratification. This is an historic step which makes all #NATO Allies stronger & safer.

Don't believe the stuff about the Khadrov troops...

...it simply can't be true without it being all over tiktok.

@RedToothBrush it doesn't seem believable that they would rush to aid anyone does ir

The idea that they weren't being cowardly custards shooting russians in the face as they retreat whilst pretending they are shooting Ukrainians and filming it for tiktok likes seems hard to believe.

I mean actually shooting and getting your arse handed to you, don't make for good TV.

mumbles hey guys, Sweden's been given the go ahead to join NATO!

Sweden today, Ukraine tomorrow. Putin's nightmares come true.

Plus Turkiye (sp?) getting annoyed with Russian shenanigans over the grain deal. I can't see them ever breaking ties - geopolitics demands that much, but I can see things cooling down.

Joy, finally! 🍾

Who knew? 😁

Interesting article in the Economist on Russia troop deaths.

It's paywalled but the gist is the the number crunchers used excess death data and wills to work out the amount of troops who died. They put it between 40-55,000 and three times that for wounded. Of course, that may not include people who are missing or considered AWOL (and left cremated or buried in Ukraine)as families can't start the death paperwork.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/07/10/how-many-russian-soldiers-have-been-killed-in-ukraine?utm_content=article-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=7/10/2023&utm_id=1678473

In all seriousness, it's a disaster for Putin all around. The Baltic Sea is now under Nato control, the alliance is substantially stronger with Sweden, and his goal of limiting Nato expansion has backfired spectacularly.

I can't wait to see how the Russian state propaganda channels spin it.

With regard to thoughts about F-16s being the key to the Turkish change of minds ( and of course Erdogan would really like F-35 but that won't happen)..

I can see some in the mass media this AM are not really explaining or are perhaps unaware that Turkey already has a very large number of older F-16s.

The problem the Turks have is that in recent years they have been subject to a US embargo on deliveries/local production of new aircraft and upgrades to the older ones which has hurt them quite badly (and possibly encouraged them to try and procure Russian ordnance such as S-400, much to NATO concerns)....so the possibility that the shift in position overnight is down to POTUS promising to get that embargo lifted is a strong one.

Of course the other item on Erdogan's wish list is joining the EU....... 🤐

Turkey in the EU :s

Interesting graph @TheABC Not far off the Ukrainian figures, if the Ukrainian figures include wounded.

One rather notable thing is that I expected the 20 -30 age bracket to be the highest and it's not. It's the late 30's and late 40's. Questions that come to mind: are the younger generation being protected? Are they further back from the frontlines, or with the falling population are there just less of them? Also, the loss of those 30 - 50 year olds - apart from the convict contingent those are the experienced and vigorous people in the workforce. Having them killed is going to affect Russia's pool of skilled people, and it already has a problem with falling population (like many countries).

Apart from that, the general view is that about 1 in 2 Russian wounded tends to die/ become incapacitated due to the poor medical treatment (a lot of stories about problems evacuating wounded, about insufficient or non-existent treatment, and about civilians in the occupied areas not being able to get treatment as the hospitals are full of soldiers). Plus the unrecorded deaths seem to be huge.

The Economist must know this, so I wonder if they've taken it into account somehow or emphasised the problem of the unrecorded missing?

I can't wait to see how the Russian state propaganda channels spin it

The usual. "Our Motherland is under threat by imperialists and their lackeys".

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-10-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) around the city.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 10.
• Russian Chief of the General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov’s first public appearance since Wagner’s rebellion supports ISW’s previous assessment that he will likely retain his official position within the Russian military.
• The Kremlin and Western intelligence officials reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin on June 29 (and/or July 1) following Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24.
• Putin’s decision to meet with Prigozhin is inconsistent with the Kremlin’s prior rhetoric about Prigozhin and his role within the Wagner private military company (PMC).
• A Kremlin-affiliated war correspondent characterized the Putin-Prigozhin meeting as the Kremlin’s attempt to “gently” replace Prigozhin and restructure Wagner.
• Gerasimov’s public reemergence and the acknowledgment of the Putin-Prigozhin meeting is likely a part of the Kremlin’s wider narrative effort to portray itself as fully in control following Wagner’s rebellion while also reaching out to those who lean toward loyalty toward Wagner and especially Prigozhin himself.
• It is unclear whether any agreements between the Kremlin and Prigozhin will prompt significant numbers of Wagner personnel to agree to sign contracts with the MoD.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen Akhmat Special Forces have deployed to the Bakhmut direction, but a local Ukrainian commander denied having encountered Chechen forces, suggesting that these Chechen elements are not making significant frontline contributions to Russian operations in Ukraine.
• Former Russian officer and prominent critical nationalist milblogger Igor Girkin claimed on July 10 that he managed to deliver a speech in St. Petersburg despite efforts by law enforcement to censor him and prevent the speech from happening
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and in the Bakhmut direction.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 10.
• Russian forces are continuing to suffer significant casualties on the battlefield.
• Russian occupation officials acknowledged widespread utility service disruptions in occupied Donetsk Oblast.

Extra:
.... Ukrainian counteroffensive actions in this direction may be credibly threatening the Russian hold on Bakhmut, although it is far too early to forecast the liberation of the city.

....Since the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on June 4, ISW has calculated based on its own control of terrain data that Ukrainian forces recaptured approximately 253 square kilometers of territory. [they explain why their figures differ from Ukraine's]

... In five weeks, Ukrainian forces have liberated nearly the same amount of territory that Russian forces captured in over six months. [Their italics]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️NATO chief: Erdogan backs Sweden's membership bid. https://kyivindependent.com/nato-chief-turkey-to-support-swedens-membership-bid/

⚡️Hungarian Foreign Minister: Hungary's ratification of Sweden's NATO bid 'only a technical issue.' https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-foreign-minister-ratification-of-swedens-nato-bid-only-technicality/

France will transfer long-range missiles to Ukraine to support its ongoing counteroffensive, Macron said at the Vilnius summit on July 11. @notimagain
The French military operates SCALP-EG cruise missiles, an equivalent to the British Storm Shadow missiles. https://kyivindependent.com/france-to-send-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine/

⚡️Media: Germany to present $770 million package (https://kyivindependent.com/media-germany-readies/) for Ukraine, including new Patriots.
The package reportedly includes two Patriot launchers, 24 Leopard 1A5 tanks, 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, and 20,000 artillery rounds.

⚡️ Allies reaffirm support https://kyivindependent.com/allies-reaffirm-support-for-ukraine-ahead-of-summit/ for Ukraine ahead of summit, divisions on membership remain.

"Following intensive talks," NATO allies agreed to remove the Membership Action Plan (MAP) from Ukraine's path toward accession, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on July 10. https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-nato-allies-agree-on-simplified-procedure-for-ukraines-accession/

Seventy-six percent of Ukrainians consider it unacceptable for the country to withhold its NATO membership bid "as a price for peace," according to recent polls conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). https://kyivindependent.com/poll-most-ukrainians-not-ready-to-refuse-nato-accession-in-exchange-for-immediate-peace/

⚡️Ambassador: Ukraine works to extend US Lend-Lease for another year. https://kyivindependent.com/ambassador-ukraine-works-to-extend-lend-lease-for-another-year/

⚡️Nobel Laureate Matviichuk asks South Africa for clear position on Putin's arrest warrant. https://kyivindependent.com/nobel-laureate-matviichuk/

Rheinmetall will open an armored vehicle plant in Ukraine within the next 12 weeks, the company's CEO Armin Papperger told CNN in an interview published on July 10.
The concern's director also announced plans to train Ukrainian staff to maintain tanks and other armored vehicles produced in that factory. https://kyivindependent.com/rheinmetall-to-build-repair-tanks-in-ukraine/

⚡️Minister: Factory to produce Bayraktar drones under construction https://kyivindependent.com/minister-factory-to-produce-bayraktar-drones-under-construction-in-ukraine/ in Ukraine.

⚡️Update: 7 killed https://kyivindependent.com/update-death-toll/ in Russian attack on Orikhiv.

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine downs 35 aerial targets over past day. https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-35-aerial-targets-over-past-day/

⚡️ 6-year-old child undergoes https://kyivindependent.com/first/ heart transplant first time in Ukraine.

Lower figures again though still over 500 lost, 4 MLRS and one helicopter.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

NATO allies in Vilnius agreed on the wording of Ukraine's accession to the Alliance, — CNN with reference to US President Joe Biden. [this was without Ukraine's input on the wording]

⚡️ NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's participation in the NATO Summit in Vilnius. [bit late news, I know]

NATO nations have agreed on regional plans detailing how the alliance would respond to a potential Russian attack, — Reuters, citing three diplomats.

Sunak welcomed Biden to 10 Downing Street, which he visited for the first time as president, saying it was "an honor and a pleasure to see you here."

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the NATO summit, Kyodo News.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius believes that Ukraine can count on an influx of investments only after the war's end and accession to NATO.
He emphasized that Germany fundamentally supports Ukraine's accession to NATO, and there are no more discussions on this issue in the Alliance.

🇦🇺 Australia to deploy reconnaissance aircraft in Germany to protect arms supplies to Ukraine, — Australian Prime Minister.

Peskov confirmed Putin's meeting with Prigozhin after the coup. The meeting lasted almost 3 hours.

⚡️ Stanislav Rzhytsky, deputy head of the department for mobilization work, who, according to media reports, may have been involved in missile attacks on Ukraine, was shot dead in Krasnodar, Russia.

Italy has frozen the assets of Russian oligarchs worth about €2 billion
Bank accounts, real estate, and luxury items such as yachts and cars have been sanctioned.
Among other things, the financial assets of 80 Russians worth €330 million were also frozen.

😠 Johnny Depp will go to Russia and get a lot of money for it, — Russian media.
The 60-year-old Pirates of the Caribbean star will allegedly receive $370,000 for this.
Let's hope it's another lie from the Russian media.

🤡 We were amazed at the speed with which Sweden and Finland gave up their neutral status, — Lavrov [fucking clown]

Photos of two burned-out vehicles of the Russian S-400 "Triumph" anti-aircraft missile complex — the launcher and the radar station — appeared on the web.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇳🇴 The Norwegian government has announced an increase in military support for Ukraine by $239 million, bringing total aid to $960 million.

Ukraine's Ambassador to Turkey Vasyl Bodnar says Turkey has not set any conditions for the return of Mariupol defense commanders

🇸🇪🇹🇷Sweden, for its part, agreed to actively support Turkey's efforts to join the EU, including the modernization of the EU-Turkey Customs Union and visa liberalization.

⚡️⚡️According to preliminary information, Russian Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov was eliminated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Berdiansk. Last night, the Duna Hotel in Berdiansk, where the enemy's military leadership, including Lieutenant General Tsokov, lived, was attacked.

❗️❗️Russian troops are shelling residential areas of Kherson. The humanitarian headquarters and at least five residential buildings were hit. Fires broke out in the places of shelling. Preliminarily, there are two wounded, one of them in serious condition. [as of 13:24 EU time]

Hungary's Wizz Air has apologized for removing a Ukrainian veteran from a flight from Tel Aviv to Warsaw.
The incident occurred last week. DailyNewsHungary wrote that a Ukrainian veteran soldier with an amputated leg was disembarked from a Wizz Air plane in Tel Aviv. According to Nexta, the man said he could not sit in his seat because of the prosthesis. He also said that he lost his leg in the war and was flying home to his family in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian language has been added to the NATO website.

In June, Ukrainian aviation carried out almost 500 strikes against the occupiers, while missile forces and artillery carried out 600+

The NATO summit starts today in Vilnius. It will begin in the afternoon.